Gman
01-04-2016, 23:35
Oops! The Feds Screwed Up 10 Years of Housing Data (http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/realestate/oops-the-feds-screwed-up-10-years-of-housing-data/ar-AAglYOL?li=BBnb7Kz)
It appears that the same clowns that make the climate models that don't match the evidence were putting the housing data together...
While the size of the revisions has waxed and waned somewhat over the years, the data shows a clear trend toward larger misstatements in the most recent data. In 2014 and 2015, all of the original reports understated the “Total Construction” value by a factor of 3.1 percent, on average. In the first ten months of 2015, that figure rose to 3.50 percent.
All 10 of the largest monthly revisions have occurred since June 2014, and each one of them was an understatement of the value of construction work put in place during that period.
However, while the reports may have been understating the net increase in construction spending, with the revisions taken into account, they were overstating the rate of change on a month-over-month basis – a factor that economists, analysts, and Fed watchers arguably pay more attention to than the absolute figures.
In the first ten months of this year, for example the originally published numbers suggested that total construction put in place value was increasing at a month-over-month average of 1.14 percent. The adjusted figures show a considerably weaker average rate of .89 percent.
It won’t be known for some time, if ever, how large a role these particular figures played in the Fed’s decision to begin raising interest rates from the near-zero level where they have been for years. However, to whatever extent they played a part, it was a somewhat misleading one.
Yeah, sure. I trust our government.[Sarcasm2]
It appears that the same clowns that make the climate models that don't match the evidence were putting the housing data together...
While the size of the revisions has waxed and waned somewhat over the years, the data shows a clear trend toward larger misstatements in the most recent data. In 2014 and 2015, all of the original reports understated the “Total Construction” value by a factor of 3.1 percent, on average. In the first ten months of 2015, that figure rose to 3.50 percent.
All 10 of the largest monthly revisions have occurred since June 2014, and each one of them was an understatement of the value of construction work put in place during that period.
However, while the reports may have been understating the net increase in construction spending, with the revisions taken into account, they were overstating the rate of change on a month-over-month basis – a factor that economists, analysts, and Fed watchers arguably pay more attention to than the absolute figures.
In the first ten months of this year, for example the originally published numbers suggested that total construction put in place value was increasing at a month-over-month average of 1.14 percent. The adjusted figures show a considerably weaker average rate of .89 percent.
It won’t be known for some time, if ever, how large a role these particular figures played in the Fed’s decision to begin raising interest rates from the near-zero level where they have been for years. However, to whatever extent they played a part, it was a somewhat misleading one.
Yeah, sure. I trust our government.[Sarcasm2]