View Full Version : Who beats who this November?
As the field narrows and we get closer to the conventions, I am just beginning to give some time to this election. I spent many years of my life working closely with politicians and don't care now to give them more of my time than I have to.
I don't normally care much for polls and polling data. Polling is an arcane and nuanced art form closer to alchemy in my mind than to an actual science. I truly subscribe to the notion that the only poll that counts is the one at the ballot box. With that said, I was interested in how the public at large is viewing the possible match ups in November. This site gives a convenient way to look at the possible match ups and see which candidates present the most interesting races:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_presidential_race.html
This is certainly not a definitive source of information and should be taken with a grain of salt. My initial take away from various polls on possible outcomes is that those of us supporting conservative values, should be very happy that we are unlikely to see a Bernie Sanders candidacy, as he would likely be a difficult candidate for any GOP nominee to beat. On the other hand, it is also interesting to see that two of the three GOP possibles would beat the likely DNC candidate, HRC, while the GOP front runner, Donald Trump gets beat in a general election by either of the two DNC candidates.
As with every Presidential election, there is a great deal riding on the outcome. Every Presidential election "is the most important election in our lifetime" or so we are told every four years. This election will be no different than any other, in that the majority of voters will be less than happy with any outcome. Life will go on come January 2017. It will certainly change our nation, and depending on your perspective, that may be for the better or the worse, regardless of the outcome.
Be safe.
Zundfolge
03-19-2016, 12:32
Not sure who will win the elections, but I do believe that this is the year that the political class beats the people.
Great-Kazoo
03-19-2016, 13:56
We're in for a repeat of 68 Chicago during the R & D convention.
One thing for sure. Both the D's & R's are going to rig the convention. Granted the D's have a head start.
Come 1/17 AR's will start @ $2K for used. Granted the price gouge complainers will probably have their stuff listed as, WILLING TO PART OUT
Bailey Guns
03-19-2016, 15:16
The scariest thing about all those polls is how well Sanders does against any R candidate.
GilpinGuy
03-20-2016, 06:25
Sadly, my prediction is that Clinton tramples Trump in a Reagen-esque victory. I don't like it, but that's my prediction. This assumes the Republican head honchos don't pull some shenanigans if Trump gets a majority of delegates and he is the nominee.
Bernie vs. Trump would be a different story. I just can't see a majority of Americans voting for an open Socialist. The Bern has fizzled though. He's done.
Edit: I recently heard an interview that Rosen had a few weeks ago with Philip Klein, the Managing Editor of the Washington Examiner (solid right publication). He predicted a possible 50 state win for Clinton if it's her vs. Trump.
I learned my lesson after 2012 though and don't have much faith in these "expert analysts" anymore, but jeeeez. If that happened, a 50 state win, we are officially done as a great country and become a country of great sloths.
Great-Kazoo
03-20-2016, 08:53
Sadly, my prediction is that Clinton tramples Trump in a Reagen-esque victory. I don't like it, but that's my prediction. This assumes the Republican head honchos don't pull some shenanigans if Trump gets a majority of delegates and he is the nominee.
Bernie vs. Trump would be a different story. I just can't see a majority of Americans voting for an open Socialist. The Bern has fizzled though. He's done.
Edit: I recently heard an interview that Rosen had a few weeks ago with Philip Klein, the Managing Editor of the Washington Examiner (solid right publication). He predicted a possible 50 state win for Clinton if it's her vs. Trump.
I learned my lesson after 2012 though and don't have much faith in these "expert analysts" anymore, but jeeeez. If that happened, a 50 state win, we are officially done as a great country and become a country of great sloths.
Yo Rip Van Winkle, you just wake up? Entitlement won over empowerment. Deserves won over Earned. It's been toast for some time.
Grant H.
03-20-2016, 09:24
Sadly, my prediction is that Clinton tramples Trump in a Reagen-esque victory. I don't like it, but that's my prediction. This assumes the Republican head honchos don't pull some shenanigans if Trump gets a majority of delegates and he is the nominee.
Bernie vs. Trump would be a different story. I just can't see a majority of Americans voting for an open Socialist. The Bern has fizzled though. He's done.
Edit: I recently heard an interview that Rosen had a few weeks ago with Philip Klein, the Managing Editor of the Washington Examiner (solid right publication). He predicted a possible 50 state win for Clinton if it's her vs. Trump.
I learned my lesson after 2012 though and don't have much faith in these "expert analysts" anymore, but jeeeez. If that happened, a 50 state win, we are officially done as a great country and become a country of great sloths.
Hillary won't carry 50 states, not even against Trump. Especially since if Hillary gets the nomination, I suspect Bernie will run as an independent and split the Dem vote.
There is a lot of the press world that still doesn't understand why Trump is so popular. They are all hooked on this idea that he is only popular with "authoritarians", which there may be some truth to, but that's not the whole story. The American populace is fed up with the usual politicians whether R, D, L, or otherwise. That is why Trump is so popular. The public sees him as an alternative to the usual 2 party system of shitty candidates, and they want something different.
Zundfolge
03-20-2016, 09:59
Hillary won't carry 50 states, not even against Trump.
If Hillary wins against Trump it'll be a squeaker. Down to the wire ... shades of 2000 with recounts and lawsuits and protests (probably more violence though).
...if Hillary gets the nomination, I suspect Bernie will run as an independent and split the Dem vote.
From your lips to God's ear brother.
As for Trump vs Bernie, I think Bernie beats Trump more handily than Hillary would. Low information people like Bearnie because they think he's honest.
Great-Kazoo
03-20-2016, 10:10
That is why Trump is so popular. The public sees him as an alternative to the usual 2 party system of shitty candidates, and they want something different.
There will be people from all walks of life who vote T. There will also be people from the R side who pull the lever for a D, come 11/16. Be it because the D has a vagina OR giving shit away promises . OR a dislike of T
Has no one payed attention to the turnout numbers for the various campaign rallies and primaries?
Republican turnout is breaking all records. Dem turnout is way behind their historic average.
Trump is going to win in a landslide against whomever the Dems put up.
The polls are all over the board. For every poll showing Trump losing, I'll show you one for Trump dominating.
Look at the turnout for the rallies and be thankful the silent majority has had enough and is engaged this season.
ETA: Scott Baio just recently endorsed Trump - Game over! Trump wins!
Trump is like the GOP's Obama, even though the GOP may not even want him.
Meaning that people are excited to vote for him because he's not the next in line of career politicians, regardless of if he should actually get the job or not.
Has no one payed attention to the turnout numbers for the various campaign rallies and primaries?
Republican turnout is breaking all records. Dem turnout is way behind their historic average.
Trump is going to win in a landslide against whomever the Dems put up.
The polls are all over the board. For every poll showing Trump losing, I'll show you one for Trump dominating.
Look at the turnout for the rallies and be thankful the silent majority has had enough and is engaged this season.
ETA: Scott Baio just recently endorsed Trump - Game over! Trump wins!
Have you heard how many Dems are crossing over to vote for trump? I don't know the numbers, but apparently it's enuf to affect the outcome in close, contested states. Any concern they are gaming the system to pick Hillary's competition?
Have you heard how many Dems are crossing over to vote for trump? I don't know the numbers, but apparently it's enuf to affect the outcome in close, contested states. Any concern they are gaming the system to pick Hillary's competition?
No concern here. I believe most Dems who cross over are in favor of Trump over Hillary, and also enjoy poking the GOPe. Hillary has the support of the Dem elite, not the Dem populous.
The GOPe candidate supporters are the ones trying to screw Trump by crossing over and pooling their votes for state specific GOPe candidates.
Zundfolge
03-20-2016, 13:29
Trump is like the GOP's Obama, even though the GOP may not even want him.
Meaning that people are excited to vote for him because he's not the next in line of career politicians, regardless of if he should actually get the job or not.
I also think that like Obama he's a bit of a cipher ... and people are projecting on him what they want him to be, not what he really is (for both good and ill).
hurley842002
03-20-2016, 13:31
About the only faith I have at the moment is this... My wife's uber liberal, California valley girl step mom (super nice lady otherwise), has already said she is likely staying home this year, because Hillary is a criminal and can't be trusted (her own words), and she spent WAY too much money sending her two daughters to college, for Bernie to give any handouts. I wouldn't count on the majority of Dem's thinking the same way, but it gives a tiny sliver of hope.
Bernie has been a sparring partner for HRC. Bernie is the warm-up for HRC's audience before the general. I have a better chance of being named the next Queen of England before Bernie running as an independent this November.
The real campaign doesn't actually begin until the conventions end. At that point, either the GOP will shred itself into destruction, insuring it will lose in November by contradicting the majority of GOP voters by selecting someone other than Trump as the nominee, or Trump will become the biggest target of every media outlet and celebrity within the progressive movement. After the convention, HRC will adopt just about every position Bernie was successful with during the primaries. She will wait for Trump to attack her, which he will do, and it will play in the media as an attack by a white man on a strong woman who is fighting for the non-white, and down trodden, salt of the earth. Trump will be entertaining and can hope for 40 to 45% unless he can get younger voters and minorities to stay home or vote for him. HRC can expect to 45% of the vote just by being the Democratic nominee. If one of the GOP candidates runs as an independent, HRC wins in a walk off. Unless HRC is indicted (a long shot) she will likely take all of the states Obama carried in 2012, and possibly pick up a few more besides. She won't carry 50 states, but she is likely to win the electoral vote by a significant margin.
Ask youself this question; How many Bernie supporters are willing to vote for Trump rather than HRC? Then ask yourself; How many of Bush, Kasich, Rubio, Cruz, Carson, Firorina, etc... supporters willing to vote for HRC, or not going to vote at all?
My opinions are worth exactly what you paid for them.
Aloha_Shooter
03-21-2016, 20:45
No concern here. I believe most Dems who cross over are in favor of Trump over Hillary, and also enjoy poking the GOPe. Hillary has the support of the Dem elite, not the Dem populous. The GOPe candidate supporters are the ones trying to screw Trump by crossing over and pooling their votes for state specific GOPe candidates.
I agree Hillary has the support of Dem elite and that the Rockefeller Republicans are trying to do anything they can to stop Trump, much as the establishment tried to freeze young TR. However, I think you underestimate the level of dirty tricks being played in the crossover votes. I'm certain there is an underground effort trying to undermine and destroy the GOP by either taking over the party from within the way Obama took over the Dems or by creating an inner revolt as the cipher loses.
I don't believe Trump is even moderately conservative. On the other hand, he is hugely self-interested and despite being somewhat authoritarian in his approach, he's far less totalitarian than Hillary or Bernie would be. I don't want him as the nominee but I will support him if he gets the nod just as I supported W and his father, and I will hope we can beat off the numbskulls trying to destroy the GOP from within (that includes both establishment and crossovers).
jhood001
03-21-2016, 21:48
The real campaign doesn't actually begin until the conventions end. At that point, either the GOP will shred itself into destruction, insuring it will lose in November by contradicting the majority of GOP voters by selecting someone other than Trump as the nominee, or Trump will become the biggest target of every media outlet and celebrity within the progressive movement. After the convention, HRC will adopt just about every position Bernie was successful with during the primaries. She will wait for Trump to attack her, which he will do, and it will play in the media as an attack by a white man on a strong woman who is fighting for the non-white, and down trodden, salt of the earth. Trump will be entertaining and can hope for 40 to 45% unless he can get younger voters and minorities to stay home or vote for him. HRC can expect to 45% of the vote just by being the Democratic nominee. If one of the GOP candidates runs as an independent, HRC wins in a walk off. Unless HRC is indicted (a long shot) she will likely take all of the states Obama carried in 2012, and possibly pick up a few more besides. She won't carry 50 states, but she is likely to win the electoral vote by a significant margin.
That seems pretty much spot on.
GilpinGuy
03-22-2016, 00:20
What's really telling in all of this is that we can't get a true conservative to make a good showing. Trump is no conservative.
milwaukeeshaker
03-22-2016, 10:28
Lets get to the "nut cutting". If you have a choice of Hillary, or Trump then what's your vote?
Hilary is more predictable than trump. Can you say Clinton legacy. I'll still vote for trump, but I'll hold my nose.
I have a prediction, and it's partly borrowed from Mr. Michael Brown of KHOW:
First, most polling data suggests that Cruz would beat Hillary. Hillary would beat Trump, and Bernie and Trump would be pretty close with Bernie edging Trump by a small margin. That's if the election were tomorrow. As far as the convention goes, I predict that one of two things may happen if Trump doesn't have the 1237 delegates required to secure the nomination after the first vote. 1) Trump doesn't finish the first vote with 1237, deals are made, Cruz wins in either the second or third round of voting after the delegates are released. Cruz goes on to secure the nomination, it's Cruz v. Hillary and Cruz wins (hopefully). 2) Trump doesn't get the 1237, Cruz wins in the second or third round, Trump gets pissed and pulls a Roosevelt (Theodore, not FDR), goes across the street and declares he's running on a 3rd Party Ticket, splits the R vote (like Roosevelt), Hillary becomes president, 4 more years of Obama-like policies.
I'm hoping for scenario #1...
thvigil11
03-22-2016, 12:39
I think either Ted or Hillary will end up being more of the same old crap. Slow steady decline. To me the difference between R and D is that one might give you the ol reach around when their tagging your rear. My dream ticket right now is Sanders V Trump. That way, no matter who wins, it will be all aboard the crazy bus to who knows where.
[panic]
68Charger
03-22-2016, 12:41
Hillary won't carry 50 states, not even against Trump. Especially since if Hillary gets the nomination, I suspect Bernie will run as an independent and split the Dem vote.
I'll donate to his campaign as an independant!
There is a lot of the press world that still doesn't understand why Trump is so popular. They are all hooked on this idea that he is only popular with "authoritarians", which there may be some truth to, but that's not the whole story. The American populace is fed up with the usual politicians whether R, D, L, or otherwise. That is why Trump is so popular. The public sees him as an alternative to the usual 2 party system of shitty candidates, and they want something different.
I'm not with you here- The press is promoting Trump, because he's entertaining- Media is nothing more than infotainment, with some leftist indoctrination thrown in... they want, no NEED a candidate that will keep their ratings up- someone that will stir up shit and make people watch their channel to find out what THAT asshole did!
The media doesn't care about the country, they don't care about the people in it- they just want ratings because that makes them money... they won't help promote a boring candidate who's good for the country, because good stability is bad for their ratings.
I have a prediction, and it's partly borrowed from Mr. Michael Brown of KHOW:
First, most polling data suggests that Cruz would beat Hillary. Hillary would beat Trump, and Bernie and Trump would be pretty close with Bernie edging Trump by a small margin. That's if the election were tomorrow. As far as the convention goes, I predict that one of two things may happen if Trump doesn't have the 1237 delegates required to secure the nomination after the first vote. 1) Trump doesn't finish the first vote with 1237, deals are made, Cruz wins in either the second or third round of voting after the delegates are released. Cruz goes on to secure the nomination, it's Cruz v. Hillary and Cruz wins (hopefully). 2) Trump doesn't get the 1237, Cruz wins in the second or third round, Trump gets pissed and pulls a Roosevelt (Theodore, not FDR), goes across the street and declares he's running on a 3rd Party Ticket, splits the R vote (like Roosevelt), Hillary becomes president, 4 more years of Obama-like policies.
I'm hoping for scenario #1...
Michael Brown can eat a bag of Mark Levins. Their incestuous relationships with the Cruz's/Bush's is sickeningly obvious.
Cruz met his Goldman Sachs wife while they were both working on the Bush campaign.
Brown was FEMA Director appointed by Bush.
Levin is engaged to a woman who's son is currently working o̶n̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶C̶r̶u̶z̶ ̶c̶a̶m̶p̶a̶i̶g̶n̶. in the Cruz Senate office. (ETA correction)
Sickening.
No way in hell Hillary (if she's still free) beats anyone in the general election - unless the vote is split because the RNC robs Trump of the nomination - then all hell will break loose.
Worst denial ever:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QW2B7Ky-0dk
Singlestack
03-29-2016, 08:27
Why is that? What makes it a bad denial? How on earth do you give any credibility whatsoever to a rumor story from the national enquirer? It certainly smells of the man with the little hands...
RblDiver
03-30-2016, 00:40
So dav...is a person presumed guilty until proven innocent?
And in other news, Trump lied. Again. And I am completely not surprised. http://hotair.com/archives/2016/03/30/trump-the-pledge-is-null-and-void/
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