Number Crunching and Arguments

[WETWRKS]

This is in response to anti-gun arguments and not a call to action...

Ok...one of the reasons for citizens to own firearms is to be able to resist an oppressive government. Over and over I have heard the anti-gun crowd state that gun owners cannot stand up to the military should the government decide to turn against its citizens...and the other night I began to think on it and crunch some numbers.

There are an estimated 300 million firearms in the US. I suspect those numbers are low but I will accept and use them for this hypothetical situation. Then take into account the recent article I read that states the average gun owner owns 2 firearms...that means there is approximately 150 million gun owners in the US. For the sake of argument say 10% decide to fight back when the military is sent in to disarm them...that works out to 15 million armed citizens fighting back.

On the other hand let's look at the military...there is 1.4 million enlisted. But...that is not combat troops...that includes cooks, doctors, office staff, and mechanics. Say 10% are actual combat troops...this leaves 140 thousand troops to gather the firearms. Then we also have to take into account that the military tends to draw patriots and a good portion would not be willing to turn against their families and friends and countrymen...and a chunk of them would even take military gear and help fight back against the oppressive government. Say that leaves 100 thousand still doing as they are ordered and acting against the law on US soil against their countrymen.

15 million vs 100 thousand...when we divide that out we have a ratio of 150 to 1. There are very few...if any...military actions that have succeeded when faced with those odds.

Frankly I suspect the 10% gun owners fighting back is high...probably more like 1% and I suspect the 100k military following orders and acting against the people is also high...probably more like 20k...but the numbers work out either way. Even if it is 1.5m vs 100k...the odds are still greatly in favor of the citizens.

[00tec]

3%

[KevDen2005]

3%

I would use 1 % just for arguments sake. Just to give the lowest possible number in the argument. It would be also important to note that an extremely high number of those gun owners are prior/current military, prior/current LE, instructors and medical personnel, and many who have taken up lots of additional training.

[KevDen2005]

On the other hand let's look at the military...there is 1.4 million enlisted. But...that is not combat troops...that includes cooks, doctors, office staff, and mechanics.

Uh...Every Marine a Rifleman!!!

[WETWRKS]

On the other hand let's look at the military...there is 1.4 million enlisted. But...that is not combat troops...that includes cooks, doctors, office staff, and mechanics.

Uh...Every Marine a Rifleman!!!

Lol...true...but not true of every branch. And these are averages.

[ChadAmberg]

3%

You mean III% right?

[00tec]

You mean III% right?

Yeah, but I'm not Roman. Haha

[KevDen2005]

Yeah, but I'm not Roman. Haha

God Bless America

[KevDen2005]

Lol...true...but not true of every branch. And these are averages.

Well I know a lot of Marines, and it's not true of them either. Every range day I give so much crap to the marines that used to be truck drivers. But it's all in good fun.

[OtterbatHellcat]

And...we as citizens can't get the gov to pull their head out of their collective asses.

Quite ironical.

Interesting thoughts, WETWRKS.

[WETWRKS]

And...we as citizens can't get the gov to pull their head out of their collective asses.

Quite ironical.

Interesting thoughts, WETWRKS.

I am one of those people who's mind never shuts off and things that bug me are being worked over in the background and eventually it all clicks and says "here is your answer".

[Skip]

Leftists know their resources aren’t limited to US LE/MIL.

Doesn’t change the argument, it still works. But in practice, there are too many global interests that would want such festivities to go a certain way.

[Erni]

I am one of those people who's mind never shuts off and things that bug me are being worked over in the background and eventually it all clicks and says "here is your answer".
Ditto. It's anoying most of the time.

[WETWRKS]

I just took a look at the NICS records...if we stay on track...there will be 300m checks between Nov 1998 and the end of this year. Now those aren't all sales but that suggests there being well over 300m firearms out there.

[roberth]

I think you have good numbers WETWRKS. I've been thinking about those numbers for a few years now.

[68Charger]

I just took a look at the NICS records...if we stay on track...there will be 300m checks between Nov 1998 and the end of this year. Now those aren't all sales but that suggests there being well over 300m firearms out there.

Not necessarily... sometimes the same crappy firearm that keeps getting pawned off on someone else over and over can have many BGCs done on it, as it changes hands and they discover it's a POS and then the cycle starts over.

I don't have any hard numbers, but let's say the worst 5% are responsible for 30% of all BGCs

This isn't to say the 300M number isn't too low, I just don't think using overall BGCs are a reliable method to determine it.

[Gman]

Not necessarily... sometimes the same crappy firearm that keeps getting pawned off on someone else over and over can have many BGCs done on it, as it changes hands and they discover it's a POS and then the cycle starts over.
Yet you can also have more than one firearm per BGC.

[wctriumph]

I believe that most military and LE would not carry out such an order.

I have heard this said before:

There are around 200 million gun owners in the USA, owning over 300 million guns and several trillion round of ammo; if there were a gun problem in the country, it would be real obvious to everyone.

[KevDen2005]

I believe that most military and LE would not carry out such an order.


I don't think it's the guns and ammo that's stopping them. They aren't going to do so against their own.

I would suggest that any type of real military control over the people with illegal orders would have to take place by a foreign force

[ray1970]

I’ll just say that you guys seem pretty confident in military guys not following orders. I was always under the impression that disregarding orders in any branch was pretty much a big no-no.

[KevDen2005]

I’ll just say that you guys seem pretty confident in military guys not following orders. I was always under the impression that disregarding orders in any branch was pretty much a big no-no.

The orders have to be lawful and in support of the constitution first...

But the people issue is that no one in the military has kicked in doors on their own soil hurting their own people.

[KevDen2005]

You guys are much more positive than I am. I think a paycheck and a "lawful" order from up the chain will turn many in LE and the Military against us. LE already enforces many many many laws that are basically unconstitutional now. But... because a judge either legislated from the bench, a corrupt system allowed it or a higher up commanded it, they follow orders. Dont think people are going to quit their jobs on a large scale so you can have an ar15. Its not going to happen.

And here is your LE post about how we're all out to get you. From people who have never seen the behind the scenes stuff that actually goes on. It only took to two pages of posts this time, Awesome!

[Irving]

And here is your LE post about how we're all out to get you. From people who have never seen the behind the scenes stuff that actually goes on. It only took to two pages of posts this time, Awesome!

I can think of at least two people on here who used to be cops, but don't ever talk about it on here. I'm sure there are more.

[KevDen2005]

I sure didnt say what you are saying I said. I was POST certified long before most of you. I have many many LEOs in my family and as friends. I just think that when rubber hits the road, people arent going to give up their paycheck, home, reputation even freedom for an inanimate object. You better look through my posts and see if I EVER rip Law Enforcement. I was also a Marine for 8 years, but I am saying I dont think most Military are going to go to the brig so we can have an AR. I just dont believe it. Its incrementalism, they arent going to send LE and Mil out tomorrow to kick down doors and take guns away. They will pass some legislation and then slowly do it. Dont accuse me of being out to get LE, you got the wrong guy.

I'm also 7 years army, and I'm not trying to make this a penis measuring contest. I think you've either had a bad experience or it's been way too long since you have seen it. In my opinion the vast majority that are there just for a job would be too afraid to do something like go door to door to collect firearms. Additionally the vast majority are there for the right reasons aren't going to go door to door. That would be a lot of cops getting fired. And I know they would. And I don't think it would be just the basic troops it would be of all ranks. Generals who wouldn't take their armies to do this.

It would be nice to have one thread with conversation where it doesn't turn into the "Police are unconstitutional" thread.

[KevDen2005]

And lets see... I have never been behind the scenes...

First I was doing drug interdiction ops along the border with the Corps before many of you were born. Second, I was deployed basically in violation of posse cumatatis to the Los Angeles riots. So, I think I have just a little experience. Maybe not compared to you recent guys, but I have a feel for what goes on.

Sorry for not checking your resume first. But I'm surprised that you don't think the military was needed to stop LA from burning to the ground. I lived there at the time of the riots and I would definitely agree that it was a war zone and the police were in serious need of support.

[KevDen2005]

At the time of the riots I thought it was great we were going to go kill scumbags burning down a US city. Now that I am older and I would hope wiser, I think that the National Guard and Local LE should have handled it and not sent actual troops in. We had just been in Iraq and Kuwait, there were lots of guys who would have loved to light up rioters and looters. Looking back, it was probably wrong.

The National Guard was sent in. They had no ammo. The governor was an idiot. The President was pissed about it.

[KevDen2005]

I think that you and may leo you know are the good guys. Im sure like minded folks hang out together. I know we have good LEO here. Talk to CSTONE, he is a very level headed guy. Go talk to someone in NYC, Detroit, Chicago and see if they are going to go to jail for a gun owner. Clearly I didnt say ALL leo, or ALL Mil, would screw us over. Some will and probably enough to make it work. If they have to fire all of the good ones to get it done.


You think Chicago or Detroit would go door to door for their very terrible paycheck? They can't even control their city with gang violence and actual criminals who are targeting them and committing major crimes daily. You're talking about one potential "crime." (Calling that only for the purpose of this thread). They woudn't fire enough to make it work and then no other daily issue gets handled that LE has to do.

[KevDen2005]

I know the National guard was there. I saw some of their idiots give away LE overwatch positions because they were clueless. Now fortunately or unfortunately our National guard has much more experience to handle such things.

Maybe I could agree that modern NG or Reserve force is more experienced to deal with such an issue. But here you're pointing out why military was the needed force. They could have been doing a lot more harm than good.

And maybe that's why it's a good idea that NG forces have experience so they can more prepared to handle internal issues. NG and Reserve forces were the absolute laughing stock when I was in the military.

[KevDen2005]

Im deleting my posts because we can not discuss anything LE related without people getting upset.

Clearly I didn't ask you to do this and I would not have asked you to do this. We have different stances and I'm not sorry for my stance. I believe that there was nothing uncivil about our conversation even if both of us are defensive and arguing. That's the point of disagreements. I am however sorry you felt the need to delete a post because you felt that I was too upset over it.

[davsel]

Just my opinion: very few doors will need to be kicked in.

First will come buy-backs, then a later amnesty turn-in, then a couple of door kicks followed by another amnesty turn-in. By then, the majority of the offensive guns will be out of the hands of the peasants.

Just like the illegals self-deporting, all it takes is a small number of high profile raids at the right time, and I believe the majority will reluctantly comply.

LE will consider the string of amnesties as a more than fair chance to comply. Therefore, they will "only be going after the real criminals" who have willingly disregarded their multiple oportunities.

[Shooter45]

Uh...Every Marine a Rifleman!!!
I was an 0331 and after that a PMI. Huge difference in shooting between Infantry and the others. The Marines definitely have the hardest qual (to call it that) of the branches but it still was not impressive to see some Marines behind a rifle or pistol.

[Skip]

This thread is kind of stupid. I've said it before...there will never be any real door to door confiscation. Just grandfathering and patiently waiting for you to croak. Your kids (or grandkids) having never shot post ban and being indoctrinated will turn in everything unregistered before it jumps up and harms somebody.

Your enemies are patient and not stupid. They act over the timespan of generations.

[snip]

They can't afford to. We need to be disarmed and replaced quickly while they still have the perception of legitimacy. What will all the social programs, national debt, social decay look like in 20 years? The velocity of this is changing.

The plan is to destroy and replace, not prolonged destruction. If we reach a point where people realize they are being played, a counter-revolution is born. They can't afford for those people to be armed.

The reason we believe they have patience is because the Baby-Boomer-Commie-Revolution was cancelled--they had no choice. Bill Ayers had bigger plans but once they realized a frontal assault didn't have adequate support they moved to Plan B. I recall they openly discussed the need to murder ~10 million Americans who refused re-education in 1971 (I think?).

(NOTE: I am not slamming all BBs, the reason they failed is because BBs stood up to them)

Patience was never Plan A.

McCarthy started confronting a very visible threat in 1950. They've been at this for 60 years!

[68Charger]

This thread is kind of stupid. I've said it before...there will never be any real door to door confiscation. Just grandfathering and patiently waiting for you to croak. Your kids (or grandkids) having never shot post ban and being indoctrinated will turn in everything unregistered before it jumps up and harms somebody.

Your enemies are patient and not stupid. They act over the timespan of generations.

Also, look at generation Z and keep in mind who is joining the military. Times are changing. Just because the greatest generation - X wouldn't do something doesn't mean they hold the same views by far and large.

I think the only legitimate fear at this point is continued divisiveness leading to succession of state(s) down the road. Discussing door kicking is as realistic as discussing what we will do when starship Enterprise lands for real and the United Federation of Planets tries to take over. (If I got that lingo right)
(fixed your lingo, except that the Enterprise was from Earth- it was Vulcans that made first contact in that "universe")
This, and when it comes to a ban- before they go door kicking, they will likely just label those who will not turn in what is known they are possession of as domestic terrorists, freezing their bank accounts. By then they will have already had many of whatever is banned turned in already, and they will have already changed public opinion enough to where a ban has passed. They'll likely ban "assault weapons" (however they define them this go-around), then progress to further and further restrictions... bit by bit, one step at a time. That is what the death of a republic looks like- because once they have a majority on their side, they continue to push "Democracy" (mob rule). And once enough of the guns are out of the hands of civilians, y'all know where the country is headed...

They will never get them all- their aim is to get enough to provide a governing system so good it has to be forced upon the people.
The question will be how much is enough- especially with the rise of 3D printer plans and open-source CNC systems... Technology has really changed the landscape of gun control- it will likely involve digital files and CNC code in the future.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-_ayHfaHCXQ

[BushMasterBoy]

The space aliens are not going to land again. They are going to toss large asteroids at the earth and leave. They will come back after the dust settles and probably won't have to worry about us having guns.
Don't panic! Being an astronaut sucks, trust me!