View Full Version : North Korea commits to denuclearization
CoGirl303
03-28-2018, 11:40
If Kim Jong Un follows through, this is fantastic news.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles-china/south-korea-says-watching-beijing-very-closely-amid-reports-of-kim-visit-idUSKBN1H305W
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I guess they're running out of food. They'll get some relief when sanctions are reduced, and then will likely go back to their quest for nukes.
North Korea has a historical pattern of acting badly and then promising to clean up their act to get something. Repeat.
Remove nukes and nuke making tech 1st. Includes surrendering all uranium to US.
Inspect by US, not UN to verify to our satisfaction 2nd.
3rd, provide limited relief, phase to full removal over 10 years.
No relief 1st, then disarm. We played that game before.
Shooter45
03-28-2018, 12:11
I guess they're running out of food. They'll get some relief when sanctions are reduced, and then will likely go back to their quest for nukes.
North Korea has a historical pattern of acting badly and then promising to clean up their act to get something. Repeat.
Exactly. They want something so they say they'll behave. Nothing new and just a cycle they constantly go through.
BushMasterBoy
03-28-2018, 12:13
They just want tractors. That is all they really need.
I think the deal has already been done. I think it was done late last year when they let slip if Trump would protect the regime (steak and caviar) they would talk.
NK's program was funded/supported by external forces and I don't think it was China. It was always unclear how much control those forces had over the Kim family and thus why we were so worried (Clinton not so much, strange huh?). If Kim saw the program actually being used it might have scared the shit out of him and rightfully so.
Getting to live like a king without having to play WWIII theatre is a damned good deal. I think W tried to make this same deal in 2003 but it was rejected.
Interesting times. Not sure if this is good thing or if we are narrowly avoiding disaster. If I'm right, Kim's safety is very much in jeopardy as he has betrayed the people who helped him build NK's program.
wctriumph
03-28-2018, 14:48
THEY'RE LYING. Always have, always will.
THEY'RE LYING. Always have, always will.
Agreed. Rinse and repeat.
Only Trump could go to North Korea?
Only Trump could go to North Korea?
I think that we (CIA, NSA, etc.) know where the nuke material and technology came from.
Why aren't we going after them?
BushMasterBoy
03-28-2018, 19:07
If the Americans can build a bomb in 1945, you don't think DPRK couldn't do it in 2017 ? Kim was schooled in Switzerland.
If the Americans can build a bomb in 1945, you don't think DPRK couldn't do it in 2017 ? Kim was schooled in Switzerland.
No. Not without massive help from outside NK.
They have no industry to speak of, no significant educational system that would allow the development of a technical base.
It's taken the Iraqi's decades to amass an infrastructure just to refine uranium, and develop their nuclear material, and build rockets. And NK did it in a fraction of the time? Without help? Not a chance.
Standard OP for NK, been going on since the end of the Korean conflict.. commit to something in exchange for something else then go back to the original operating procedure. I doubt NK has any desire to actually drop nukes.
RblDiver
03-29-2018, 01:04
I think that we (CIA, NSA, etc.) know where the nuke material and technology came from.
Why aren't we going after them?
Because they have plenty conventional artillery aimed at Seoul, which has millions of people. I mean, if it were a matter of imminent "They will be able to nuke the US next week if we don't stop them," I'd say go in because we have to look after our interests first, but until then, they have to be very careful.
Standard OP for NK, been going on since the end of the Korean conflict.. commit to something in exchange for something else then go back to the original operating procedure. I doubt NK has any desire to actually drop nukes.
Yup, after fall of Soviet, and Start of North Korean Famine of 94.
I think that we (CIA, NSA, etc.) know where the nuke material and technology came from.
Why aren't we going after them?
It's no secret. China and France openly admit to selling nuclear technology to North Korea.
BushMasterBoy
03-29-2018, 21:02
I can get the technology from the internet and the material came from DPRK mines. They dug up their own bomb material. Most of the first US weapons, the material was mined in Colorado, Utah and New Mexico. Much of these mining activities were very secretive due to the nature of the final product. So be careful if you rockhound and leave the specimens under the seat of your truck.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uranium_mining_in_Colorado
https://gizmodo.com/5572897/how-to-build-a-diy-nuke
From what I understand of nukes, the triggers are the most complicated part. The timing of the charges has to be very precise to start the fission/fission fusion reaction.
I thought I remember reading that North Korea had some assistance from Pakistan with the nukes and Iran for the missiles, but maybe my memory isn't accurate.
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Grant H.
03-29-2018, 22:36
From what I understand of nukes, the triggers are the most complicated part. The timing of the charges has to be very precise to start the fission/fission fusion reaction.
I thought I remember reading that North Korea had some assistance from Pakistan with the nukes and Iran for the missiles, but maybe my memory isn't accurate.
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For modern, high yield thermonuclear weapons, this is absolutely true.
Hiroshima/Nagasaki, and most other early era bombs are really rather crude, and do not require anywhere the level of precision that modern nukes require.
In all reality, with some help from outside sources for refining/enriching, NK could easily have viable nukes. The equipment necessary to build viable fission bombs is pretty commonplace, if you have a source for refined fission material.
Martinjmpr
03-30-2018, 08:51
The most difficult part of making a nuke is obtaining the material. Natural uranium is 99.3% U-238 (non-fissionable) and .7% U-235 (fissionable.) In order to get material that can be made into a bomb that needs to get to about 70% U-235.
The process of enriching uranium requires an enormous amount of power. One statistic I read was that during WWII, 10-15% of all electrical power generated in the US went towards enriching uranium. It also takes a lot of time. I think the Oak Ridge plant in Tennessee took something like 9 months to make enough enriched uranium to build one bomb, and they had either two or three (can't remember off the top of my head) huge enriching facilities.
Plutonium is more efficient as a bomb material but can only be produced in a nuclear power plant and it takes a lot of time and energy as well.
The one thing I'm wondering about is whether North Korea has actually made a 2 stage thermonuclear weapon (i.e. an H-bomb.) They claim to have done so but AFAIK the reported yields of their 3 or 4 tests have all been in the 20kt - 30kt range, which is at the very low end of the single stage (A-bomb) range.
By comparison, the Trinity device, the first nuke ever tested, was about 20kt, the Little Boy gun-type bomb dropped on Hiroshima was about 11kt and the Fat Man bomb which was an implosion bomb like the Trinity device was about 20kt..
OTOH, the modern 2-stage thermonuclear warheads used by most nuclear forces are in the 200 - 600kt range, and the biggest nuke the US ever exploded was about 15mt, which is 500x more powerful than anything the NorKs have ever lit off.
If Kim Jong Un follows through...
he won't
his dad didn't
his grandfather didn't
They are masters of playing the "squeaky wheel gets the grease" routine and the rest of the world repeatedly thinks this time will be different.
Martinjmpr
03-30-2018, 09:15
Bottom line, while making a crude, single-stage A-bomb under lab conditions is not terribly difficult for a nation-state, I'm not convinced that the NorKs have the ability to make (a) a modern 2-stage thermonuclear device that is (b) small enough, rugged enough and reliable enough to put into the nosecone of a missile, and then (c) fire that missile at a target and have the weapon detonate within a reasonable distance of the target in order to be a serious threat.
I'm not saying the NorKs are not a threat. Certainly they can mess up the Korean Peninsula pretty bad even without nuclear weapons. A huge portion of the South Korean population lives within artillery range of the DMZ and the NorKs have long range guns that can shoot something like 70 KM. But they're nowhere near the threat that the USSR was during the height of the Cold War.
No. Not without massive help from outside NK.
They have no industry to speak of, no significant educational system that would allow the development of a technical base.
It's taken the Iraqi's decades to amass an infrastructure just to refine uranium, and develop their nuclear material, and build rockets. And NK did it in a fraction of the time? Without help? Not a chance.
Exactly. Same thing in Iran. The military tech in these countries is an absolutely joke! Look at what we and the Russians had to accomplish before building programs.
And the NK program happened (sanctioned?) right as the former USSR was selling anything it could. People don't remember (pre-internet) but the UN was very concerned about this. Also right under the nose of a US president who had just negotiated a massive wealth transfer from the American people to China (Most Favored Nation).
The only question is who put up the cash for the goods because NK has always been dirt poor. Whoever that person(s) was likely has more control they should and I wonder if that person didn't factor into this decision.
Like I said, deal is likely already done. Kim going to China by rail is proof.
CoGirl303
04-20-2018, 16:48
Kim Jong Un suspending nuclear testing, long range missile testing and shutting down a nuclear site.
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2018/04/20/north-korea-suspends-missile-testing-closing-nuclear-test-site-reports-say.html
I'm still skeptical but this is looking more and more promising.
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CoGirl303
04-20-2018, 16:53
...just wait.
http://www.9news.com/news/nation-world/reports-north-and-south-korea-to-announce-end-to-war/540515327
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Reports: North and South Korea to announce end to war http://www.9news.com/news/nation-world/reports-north-and-south-korea-to-announce-end-to-war/540515327
If that does come to be, will Trump come to be known as the President that brought down North Korea, like Reagan breaking the USSR?
Only Trump could go to North Korea?
If that does come to be, will Trump come to be known as the President that brought down North Korea, like Reagan breaking the USSR?
Bailey Guns
04-20-2018, 18:15
I can almost hear the collective democrat sigh of, "Well fuck me."
CoGirl303
06-01-2018, 13:09
This is unprecedented and historic.
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2018/06/01/trump-says-singapore-summit-with-kim-is-back-on-after-meeting-north-korean-official.html
President Trump said Friday a summit between the United States and North Korea will take place this summer after all, following a meeting with a top North Korean official in the Oval Office for more than hour.
“We'll be meeting on June 12 in Singapore," the president told reporters after the meeting.
After arriving at the White House on Friday afternoon, North Korean official Kim Yong Chol was seen being ushered into the West Wing by the president's chief of staff, John Kelly.
Trump said Chol gave him a letter from Kim Jong Un, but he hadn't read it yet.
“We talked about a lot of things," Trump said. "We really did. But the big deal will be on June 12.”
After the meeting, Trump and Secretary of State Pompeo were seen taking photos with Kim and his entourage outside the Oval Office.
Kim Yong Chol is the most senior North Korean visitor to the United States since Vice Marshal Jo Myong Rok visited Washington in 2000 to meet President Bill Clinton. He is North Korea's former military intelligence chief and is one of the North Korean leader's closest aides.
The contents of the letter were not immediately known.
Kim's arrival in Washington came a day after Pompeo declared that he was confident negotiations with Pyongyang over holding a nuclear summit were "moving in the right direction."
"Our two countries face a pivotal moment in our relationship, and it would be nothing short of tragic to let this opportunity go to waste," Pompeo said in New York after meeting with Kim.
Pompeo would not say that the summit is a definite go for Singapore on June 12 and could not say if that decision would be made after Trump reads Kim Jong Un's letter. However, his comments were the most positive from any U.S. official since Trump abruptly canceled the meeting last week after belligerent statements from the North.
The two countries, eyeing the first summit between the U.S. and the North after six decades of hostility, have also been holding negotiations in Singapore and the demilitarized zone between the two Koreas.
Kim Yong Chol left his hotel in New York City early Friday for the trip to Washington in a convoy of SUVs. Pompeo, the former CIA chief who has traveled to North Korea and met with Kim Jong Un twice in the past two months, said he believed the country's leaders are "contemplating a path forward where they can make a strategic shift, one that their country has not been prepared to make before."
Fox News’ John Roberts and Serafin Gomez and The Associated Press contributed to this report.
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Imho, with or without nuclear weapon they would most likely not use it. They already have large military as is but with older equipments.
If they get a deal of a century, any country with huge sanctions will give up on enriched utanium. Assuming they use centerfuge to distinguish 238 and isotope, it will take about 3 month to get it.
Really giving up enriched uranium is just part of it.
I am following this not just on mainstream US news, but BBC and most importantly YTN.
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