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11-15-2018, 11:05
http://magellanstrategies.com/magellan-strategies-colorado-survey-2018-unaffiliated-voters/
Lots of interesting stuff in here that seems to explain how/why the state is changing so much.
First consider that CO has a nearly identical number of Dems and Reps actively registered and Dem turnout was slightly higher. It would seem that some Reps just didn't want to support their party or were unenthusiastic.
(http://www.sos.state.co.us/pubs/elections/VoterRegNumbers/2018/January/VotersByPartyStatus.pdf)
For the first time ever in a Colorado mid-term election, unaffiliated voter turnout (893,436) and Democratic voter turnout (822,230) was higher than Republican turnout (803,143), and by a significant margin. In the 2014 mid-term election, Republican voter turnout was 774,923, Democratic voter turnout was 664,532 and unaffiliated voter turnout was 634,296.
And of course, those highly coveted UAFs who have decided every election for this state in my lifetime crushed them both. They are no longer independents in the traditional sense. They have now flipped from 61% wanting less gov to 51% wanting more gov in two years!
A majority of unaffiliated voters, 51%, want the government to do more to solve the country?s problems, while 34% think the government is doing too much. This is a significant change of opinion compared to unaffiliated voters who voted in the 2016 election, where 61% thought the government was doing too much and only 26% thought the government should do more.
Add in this...
The Democrat Party has a net positive image rating among unaffiliated voters, with 45% having a favorable opinion of the party and 31% an unfavorable opinion. The Republican Party has a net negative image rating, with only 25% of respondents having a favorable opinion of the party and 53% having an unfavorable opinion.
And look at Polis's support/issues...
Unaffiliated voters supported Jared Polis because of his positions on education, healthcare and the environment. They also liked his business background and viewed him to be a more competent and qualified candidate compared to Walker Stapleton. Reasons some unaffiliated voters opposed Jared Polis were fears that he would raise taxes, increase government spending, and would be hostile to the oil and gas industry.
These aren't independent positions, they are Leftist positions.
Second part is what I'd expect but doesn't override the first part (education, healthcare, environment = higher taxes).
So... Could it be Colorado "independents" as a voting block are now too far left of the Dem party to register as such?
If I had to guess on what's flipped attitudes on overall level of government, I would point to two things based on people I've spoken to...
1. Housing - people move here, young people move out, and they simply can't afford to get by. "Wages haven't kept up with costs." Or is it costs haven't been controlled by wages?
They lack the sophistication to understand this is a symptom of more government ("bailouts" [cash and discount lending] to keep housing from correcting, higher taxes/cost of living, "affordable housing," Denver city development deals, etc...) and look for help in more gov.
Sense of entitlement is strong on this one.
2. Healthcare - as I've said, this is getting so ridiculous it's going full Commie. I can't really see a sense of entitlement when so much of payer costs are going to non-payers.
If the GOP at the local or state level can't address these two things, they are not just going to be a minority party but the country will shift hard to the left. People don't give up freedom for collectivism in times of prosperity, they tend to do so because of real/perceived hardships that capitalism can't seem to solve.
The state GOP has also done a very bad job on basic messaging. For example, we have state income tax, high sales tax, property taxes, gas taxes (roads), and special taxes. And the voters rejected more taxes in referenda!!! So the voters (Dems and UAF) get it on some level, yet the big gov candidate won.
Lots of interesting stuff in here that seems to explain how/why the state is changing so much.
First consider that CO has a nearly identical number of Dems and Reps actively registered and Dem turnout was slightly higher. It would seem that some Reps just didn't want to support their party or were unenthusiastic.
(http://www.sos.state.co.us/pubs/elections/VoterRegNumbers/2018/January/VotersByPartyStatus.pdf)
For the first time ever in a Colorado mid-term election, unaffiliated voter turnout (893,436) and Democratic voter turnout (822,230) was higher than Republican turnout (803,143), and by a significant margin. In the 2014 mid-term election, Republican voter turnout was 774,923, Democratic voter turnout was 664,532 and unaffiliated voter turnout was 634,296.
And of course, those highly coveted UAFs who have decided every election for this state in my lifetime crushed them both. They are no longer independents in the traditional sense. They have now flipped from 61% wanting less gov to 51% wanting more gov in two years!
A majority of unaffiliated voters, 51%, want the government to do more to solve the country?s problems, while 34% think the government is doing too much. This is a significant change of opinion compared to unaffiliated voters who voted in the 2016 election, where 61% thought the government was doing too much and only 26% thought the government should do more.
Add in this...
The Democrat Party has a net positive image rating among unaffiliated voters, with 45% having a favorable opinion of the party and 31% an unfavorable opinion. The Republican Party has a net negative image rating, with only 25% of respondents having a favorable opinion of the party and 53% having an unfavorable opinion.
And look at Polis's support/issues...
Unaffiliated voters supported Jared Polis because of his positions on education, healthcare and the environment. They also liked his business background and viewed him to be a more competent and qualified candidate compared to Walker Stapleton. Reasons some unaffiliated voters opposed Jared Polis were fears that he would raise taxes, increase government spending, and would be hostile to the oil and gas industry.
These aren't independent positions, they are Leftist positions.
Second part is what I'd expect but doesn't override the first part (education, healthcare, environment = higher taxes).
So... Could it be Colorado "independents" as a voting block are now too far left of the Dem party to register as such?
If I had to guess on what's flipped attitudes on overall level of government, I would point to two things based on people I've spoken to...
1. Housing - people move here, young people move out, and they simply can't afford to get by. "Wages haven't kept up with costs." Or is it costs haven't been controlled by wages?
They lack the sophistication to understand this is a symptom of more government ("bailouts" [cash and discount lending] to keep housing from correcting, higher taxes/cost of living, "affordable housing," Denver city development deals, etc...) and look for help in more gov.
Sense of entitlement is strong on this one.
2. Healthcare - as I've said, this is getting so ridiculous it's going full Commie. I can't really see a sense of entitlement when so much of payer costs are going to non-payers.
If the GOP at the local or state level can't address these two things, they are not just going to be a minority party but the country will shift hard to the left. People don't give up freedom for collectivism in times of prosperity, they tend to do so because of real/perceived hardships that capitalism can't seem to solve.
The state GOP has also done a very bad job on basic messaging. For example, we have state income tax, high sales tax, property taxes, gas taxes (roads), and special taxes. And the voters rejected more taxes in referenda!!! So the voters (Dems and UAF) get it on some level, yet the big gov candidate won.