View Full Version : Captain Capitalism - Why There Will Be a V Shaped Recovery
https://captaincapitalism.blogspot.com/2020/05/why-there-will-be-v-shaped-recovery.html
First, you have Wisconsinites flooding the bars, partying like it was 1999 (https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwj_2fai27jpAhULrZ4KHfU5BxwQ0PADegQICBAH&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cbsnews.com%2Fnews%2Fwiscons in-bars-packed-supreme-court-overturns-stay-at-home-ruling%2F&usg=AOvVaw3ko-njDUDwfWr3Q75VYm-v) once the Wisconsin State Supreme Court denied the governor the ability to extend the lock down. There was such pent up demand that people flooded the bars at rates last seen when the Green Bay Packers won a superbowl. And this pent up demand was directed/invested no less precisely in the sector of the economy most hurt by the Great and Merciful Coronchan (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ka17tsGA_5k) - the service industry.
Second, bikes. Specifically the lack of them. When I went to wal-Mart to get an inner tube for my mountain bike, there were absolutely no actual bikes for sale. The reason why is that every kid, family, and child wanted one AND HERE'S THE REAL KICKER
THEY'RE USING THEM!
it's short, read it all.
We're going to come back strong in spite of the ChiComs, democrats, and mainstream media.
Great-Kazoo
05-21-2020, 08:31
IT'S TRUMPS FAULT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
KevDen2005
05-21-2020, 08:58
If anyone else watches Mike Maloney he disagrees. He thinks the market will fall again and not be V shaped because we don't have free market. Not sure if I am on board but I enjoy his gold and silver videos.
If the government stays out of the way and doesn't keep monkeying with things, I think the recovery will be quicker. The more they go in and try to manipulate things, the more screwed up and drawn out it will be, IMO.
Agreed on "we don't have a free market".
That was proven when state governors picked the businesses that could stay open (big box stores) and shut down the little guy.
KevDen2005
05-21-2020, 09:17
Agreed on "we don't have a free market".
That was proven when state governors picked the businesses that could stay open (big box stores) and shut down the little guy.
I think that has to do more with unconstitutional control than the market itself. I think we don't have a free market because of government financial influence and forced subsidies for organizations at the tax payer expense.
I think that has to do more with unconstitutional control than the market itself. I think we don't have a free market because of government financial influence and forced subsidies for organizations at the tax payer expense.
Yes, that too.
Just this week, I think I read about 5 articles about V shape reovery, or not going to be V shape recovery.
At this rate of printing out the money into economy, we probably going to get NOMINAL "Reverse L" shape recovery.
Predicting anything before November is probably a mistake. We could recover soonish, or it could take a decade. There's a lot of potential change packed into the next six months to take any massive gambles.
I think it will be a W shaped recovery... that starts with the V we've just seen with the bottom in the middle of March.
I expect my retirement accounts to recover relatively quickly. I do not expect the small business owners who lost months of revenue, employees, and often their business entirely to recover quickly. I am glad unemployment benefits were strengthened with the extra $600 a month, that saved the bacon of a lot of my friends who would otherwise have been pretty fucked. That said, I have a fair number of friends who for various reasons didn't qualify for the benefits and are having to pack it in back to their family in CT/upstate New York as they couldn't make it this long/another few months until in person dining picks back up.
It's easy to get too wrapped in the markets as a sign of recovery, just remember there are a lot of people who will not be whole for some time because of this (to say nothing of the people who have actually lost a loved one, maybe the household's wage earner due to it).
Not sure about the rest of you, but I think we're a ways out from being able to claim any kind of "recovery". We still don't know how screwed we are.
kidicarus13
05-21-2020, 16:13
I am glad unemployment benefits were strengthened with the extra $600 a month, that saved the bacon of a lot of my friends who would otherwise have been pretty fucked.
extra $600/week
He doesn't define a "V-shaped" recovery.
He doesn't say where on the V-shaped recovery we now are.
Since we are obviously on the downslope of the V right now, he doesn't predict when we will reach the upslope.
He doesn't explain why American's desire to "go out" will recharge the economy if many are unemployed, many more fear unemployment or reduced paychecks, and numerous small sevice businesses will not reopen.
In one paragraph he says the good thing about the pandemic is that lazy Americans are so bored that many are going outside to work out.
In the next paragraph he says that Americans are a bunch of physically, intellectually, and morally lazy fatasses who have a pent up desire to "go out" and somehow this will bring the ecomony back.
If I were a college economics prof, I'd give this guy a D- for this effort.
extra $600/week
Yeah sorry, meant to type that but it's my friday and I'm clearly not all there. Last time I was on unemployment I maxed it out at around $1500/mo, which was about a third of what my salary had been (before taxes). I had only been out of college for a couple years, and I was lucky enough that I had some savings and that I was living pretty cheap. The extra $600/wk would have made me almost whole for that time, and even now I'd be able to get by on that without dipping into any savings or being in full poverty mode.
He doesn't define a "V-shaped" recovery.
He doesn't say where on the V-shaped recovery we now are.
Since we are obviously on the downslope of the V right now, he doesn't predict when we will reach the upslope.
He doesn't explain why American's desire to "go out" will recharge the economy if many are unemployed, many more fear unemployment or reduced paychecks, and numerous small sevice businesses will not reopen.
In one paragraph he says the good thing about the pandemic is that lazy Americans are so bored that many are going outside to work out.
In the next paragraph he says that Americans are a bunch of physically, intellectually, and morally lazy fatasses who have a pent up desire to "go out" and somehow this will bring the ecomony back.
If I were a college economics prof, I'd give this guy a D- for this effort.
LOL.without metrics, maybe High school AP Economics student?
<MADDOG>
05-22-2020, 07:38
Just this week, I think I read about 5 articles about V shape reovery, or not going to be V shape recovery.
At this rate of printing out the money into economy, we probably going to get NOMINAL "Reverse L" shape recovery.
This.
What the BS artist is not taking into account, aside from the helicopter money, is the lag effect of this shutdown:
The ever increasing trade war. Yes, eventually the US may bring back domestic manufacturing. But that takes time, talent, and capital. Meanwhile, enjoy the higher price for your goods. It might even out at the end...
Some businesses are still alive because of the federal hand-out, and we have 23M+ (by "official" numbers) unemployed now. Manufacturers are building inventory they probably can not sell, truckers are sidelined, and the construction industry is burning through its backlog. July is going to be fun...
Of the 23M+, how many are making more sitting on their ass then they did when they were working? August is going to be better than July.
Like 2008, the credit market is tightened.
Some of the "well known" big money in the market has went to cash? Why?
Oh yea, helicopter money. Worldwide.
Did I say bullshit artist?
You gentlemen can believe what you want, but my fear is this is going to get real ugly for all of us.
We also have to remember that market gains lately are less actual gains in value and more to do with inflationary addition of funds into the economic system. E.g. if the USA gives 1 million to each citizen, the market would go up by several thousand percent! But cashed out, it wouldn't buy anything more, potentially even less, than the same # of shares would now. It's true for smaller amounts ($1200) as well.
We're walking on cracked glass atm. Unemployment levels spiked to great depression levels. Many businesses are toast after this, those jobs will not return. U/E is propped up by the "keep america unemployed act" with that extra $600/week that runs out in July, that actually is quite profitable to be unemployed and remain unemployed, which is why things are not in crisis with U/E yet but soon they will be. All those people will suddenly be clamoring for jobs at the same time when the gravy train runs out. (60% of their old wage + $2,400+ a month = most are making a ton more money unemployed right now).
This has very high potential to result in a devastatingly long depression for America. But, it's no guarantee.
Major risks I anticipate:
Joe Biden getting replaced will collapse the false bull if it happens.
Heavy covid return in Winter w/o effective treatment or vaccine (likely) resulting in extensive draconian measures for 4-5 months that will irrevocably result in a depression.
Minor risks:
Additional stimulus bills - temporary inflationary gains that push back a fall to a harsher extent. (e.g. U/E eventually runs out).
Tons of others...
There's not a lot of positives that will lead us out of a recession/depression at least in the short term. Retention of Trump might be a boost, but it may not be enough of one. Still, anything could happen, but right now a lot of our factors are being artificially propped up, e.g. we're delaying another crash or buying time, but not preventing it or fixing the issues.
asystejs
05-22-2020, 09:27
extra $600/week
Two of my daughters didn't want to go back to work until the $600/week runs out
because unemployment pays them quite a bit more that they earned working.
One went back to work this week because they brought her back in a better job and more money.
The other one does not know if her employer will reopen so she is happy with the $4000/month unemployment
until the end of July when the unemployment stimulus is scheduled to stop.
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