so when CO ditches coal fired plants.....

[saltydecimator]

are we gonna be doin the texas two step when the turbines freez up to keep warm? or what is the energy companies plan out here? coal to what is the next source?

[hollohas]

Good question.

The Martin Drake plant on Colorado Springs is now scheduled to shutdown the coal generation by 2023, 12 years earlier than originally planned. The coal generation will temporarily be replaced by Nat Gas with plans to go full green in another 20 years or so (wind, solar, battery). Not sure how that's going to happen. The Ray Nixon plant south of the Springs will shutdown by 2030.

The Rawhide plant up north is going to shutdown all coal by 2030, 16 years earlier than they planned. It's 55% coal currently. They plan to be full green at the same time they shutdown coal generation in 2030 somehow.

Nobody has really laid out any plans about how the coal/nat gas generation is going to be replaced by wind/solar, but they're chugging along with the "plan" anyway.

Edit: wanted to add some context but had to look up the numbers.

Rawhide coal = 280MW

Rawhide Nat gas = 260MW. (They also have another nat has unit that has an additional 128MW of backup capacity).

Rawhide solar = 30MW. (Takes up 185 acres...the same space the coal unit takes up). 117K panels. Enough energy for only 2% of their customers. Another 22MW on 150 acres coming soon. They only have 2MW of battery storage.

Wind = 230MW intermittent on over 20,000 acres.

Not sure how they will replace the coal unit with enough reliable generation in 9 short years with what they have now. They won't be anywhere close. (They have only 2MW of storage!) And imagine what the increased demand will be in 9 years. Yikes.

Edit #2 -

Because they are intermittent sources, wind generation is assumed to only produce 22% of it's capacity and solar 42%. What that means is in the wind farm CAN produce 230MW, in reality, it only provides 50MW. So to make up for losing 280MW of coal with wind, you'd need 1,272MW of wind generation or roughly 110,000 acres of wind farms.

[00tec]

are we gonna be doin the texas two step when the turbines freez up to keep warm? or what is the energy companies plan out here? coal to what is the next source?

The diesel generator that you'll need in your back yard

[Irving]

I sure wish they'd just go to nuclear. I really like solar, but I don't like the idea of solar farms. That's just dead land at that point. Might as well have a strip mine.

[DFBrews]

are we gonna be doin the texas two step when the turbines freez up to keep warm? or what is the energy companies plan out here? coal to what is the next source?


Texas does not use turbines that are specd for cold weather like northern latitudes. So the ice build up on the turbines became a safety issue

They also have limited contingency in place for this type of storm that is a 20-30 year storm.

Oklahoma was able to use its neighbors power to supplement instead of being solely dependent on one company to meet a surge in demand. That was vastly under estimated. Roll in the fact that most southern Texas infrastructure have little heating provisions it’s a perfect storm
Renewables are going to augment petroleum use increasingly in the future even with the growing pains and push back it will come with.

[Irving]

Didn't that chart hollohaus posted show that wind was already on par with traditional fossil fuel usage? I was either surprised to see that, or read the graph wrong.

[DFBrews]

Didn't that chart hollohaus posted show that wind was already on par with traditional fossil fuel usage? I was either surprised to see that, or read the graph wrong.

In Texas average is 13% with up to 24-25 total renewable

[GilpinGuy]

I sure wish they'd just go to nuclear. I really like solar, but I don't like the idea of solar farms. That's just dead land at that point. Might as well have a strip mine.

This. Nuclear is the obvious choice and has been for decades but the greenies want nirvana, not reality. Nothing is perfect. Just have to pick the best option available at the time and keep on developing new tech until it's reasonable.

And all of these "deadlines" are just vote-grabbing tools. If the politicians believe their own bullshit I'd really be surprised.

[ruthabagah]

lets not forget that the real problem with tx is that their grid is not connected to the other ones... A "Texas sized" weather event was never planned for, and the only emergency backup they have through Oklahoma could not be activated. Some heads are going to roll at Ercot.

[JohnnyDrama]

This. Nuclear is the obvious choice and has been for decades but the greenies want nirvana, not reality. Nothing is perfect. Just have to pick the best option available at the time and keep on developing new tech until it's reasonable.

And all of these "deadlines" are just vote-grabbing tools. If the politicians believe their own bullshit I'd really be surprised.

Let's go back to the Bronze Age and see how "green" things become. I reckon it wouldn't take long before those opposing fossil fuels either changed their minds or were eaten by the others.

[DenverGP]

Didn't that chart hollohaus posted show that wind was already on par with traditional fossil fuel usage? I was either surprised to see that, or read the graph wrong.

You talking about this one:
https://i.imgur.com/fASgbpF.jpg



I suspect you were reading it incorrectly, thinking that green being at the top meant it was more... the total peak for a day is the total of all power sources shown. You can get a better idea of how it's working by looking at solar.... it's the barely visible yellow spots thrown in there... the fact that they are on top of the gas definitely doesn't indicate it was doing more....

Basically for any given day/time, the amount of green vs tan vs brown shows you their relative production.

On the best spots on that graph for wind, it looks like it was doing about 20k megawatt hours. But for most of the graph, it's way under that.

Natural gas has spots during the peak demand period where it was making 35k megawatt hours... Add in coal doing a very consistent 10-12k megawatt hours, gives you fossil fuels producing 45k at times.

Nuclear looks like a very steady 5k megawatt hours.

[Irving]

That's the graph. Guess I'm confused because the key says wind is green, and I see the green at a consistent 35k -50k throughout. Am I reading something wrong?

[DenverGP]

Don't picture it as a 3d chart... it isn't the green behind the others, it's all sources stacked on top of each other.

Wind production is the amount from the bottom of the green to the top of the green on any given X axis point....

look at Feb 1 for example.
Green goes from 35K up to around 40k.... so green (wind) produced 5k..
Tan goes from around 18k up to 35k, so tan (gas) produced about 17k.
The total on feb 1 was 40k, which is the total produced by all sources shown.

There are plenty of spots where wind isn't doing any more than the 5k of nuclear.

[Irving]

Oh I see, that's the cumulative amount. Thanks for the explanation. Wind is still producing much more than I would have expected.

[DenverGP]

Just hope the wind happens to be blowing good when you need more power...

But not blowing too hard, they have to take the turbines offline if winds exceed around 55mph.

And if the wind just doesn't blow hard enough, and we've removed the on-demand production of natural gas, we're just SOL.


Wind is still producing much more than I would have expected.

At times... other times it's barely producing anything.

[Singlestack]

Climate change = $$$

Not sure how these douche Hipster Libs can ignore history. 1000 yrs ago Europe had 300 yrs of “Climate Change”. Gee, no snow, warm winters, and 2 harvests a year. Can’t blame that on carbon footprint. Population doubled...and was quickly wiped out by The Black Plague. Plague came back every 20-30 yrs or so til 1666. Still can’t find a legit logical reason for this 300 yrs of warm weather. Lotta theories but these fanatical climate chuckleheads can’t get the jelly out of donut let alone explain the weather.

Shut up, racist!

[Aloha_Shooter]

Oh I see, that's the cumulative amount. Thanks for the explanation. Wind is still producing much more than I would have expected.

Yes, it's a sand chart. Pretty common when you're looking at budget or costs with multiple sources or destinations.

The utility should be monitoring the demand for power in real time and adjusting power generation to meet the total demand. Basically, look at the current demand, subtract what you're getting from unadjustable sources (solar, wind) and then figure out how to meet the additional demand. It looks like they treat nuclear as unadjustable and the coal can be adjusted but the change in power generation is slow; natural gas is the quickest reaction so that's where you see the greatest variability.

[BladesNBarrels]

One Word

Batteries!

https://i.imgur.com/MWxbM26.jpg

[hollohas]

One Word

Batteries!

https://i.imgur.com/MWxbM26.jpg

That what we're told is next, but we're no where close to being able to use batteries.

Look at our local Platte River Power Authority as the example I posted above. They tout about 52MW of solar generation capacity, which is significant for a small regional utility. But they are just now getting around to installing 2MW of battery storage (the discharge is 1MW for just 2-hours when there isn't any sun). So they'll only be able to store/use about 2% of the max generation capacity. Those lithium-ion batteries will be 33ft long, 6ft wide, 10ft tall.

[fj605]

It wasn't just windmills freezing up that caused the power outages. It's a nice talking point but not reality. The natural gas pipelines also froze. Maintenance procedures to drain the lines of any water weren't performed and exposed portions of the lines weren't insulated.

[CapLock]

The children in Africa are digging the lithium as fast as they can for your batteries. In the mean time chop and stack firewood.

[ray1970]

https://i.imgur.com/fASgbpF.jpg



I think the far right side of the chart probably gets into this recent cold snap. Assuming they met the demands of all of their customers, it looks like they did so with an overwhelming majority of coal and natural gas. Take away those sources and it looks like they would have been about 80% short of meeting demands.

[Aloha_Shooter]

I think the far right side of the chart probably gets into this recent cold snap. Assuming they met the demands of all of their customers, it looks like they did so with an overwhelming majority of coal and natural gas. Take away those sources and it looks like they would have been about 80% short of meeting demands.

But but but ... Alexandra Occasional-Cortex said her Green New Deal would have prevented the the blackouts. All that green stuff must have been producing more!

[.455_Hunter]

The key point of the discussion is that, regardless of the TX warm weather infrastructure cluster, renewables production across a 15 state zone went in the toilet, and the ONLY reason why this was not a 50 million person crisis were legacy systems able to fill the gap.

[MrPrena]

I will be happy with nuclear.
Those dumbass tree hugger only likes wind and solar.
That ain't going to generate as much power and energy to keep up with demand.

Maybe consume LESS ENERGY OVERALL instead of pretending to consume less when media or friends are watching may help....

[TRnCO]

I just can't wait to drive across the eastern plains of Colo. the day that there are enough wind turbines out there to power all of Colo.'s needs. It's going to be such a wonderful picturesque scene, especially at night when all the red lights are flashing and you can see them as far as the eye can see. NOT>>>

wife and I are currently looking into a whole house generator. Think it's time that we're not relying on the grid when chit hits the fan.

[BladesNBarrels]

wife and I are currently looking into a whole house generator. Think it's time that we're not relying on the grid when chit hits the fan.

In Elizabeth would be a good idea.
When we first moved out there, we had 3 days without power.
Of course the well, and all the house required electricity to run the toilets, furnace, etc.
The fireplaces were natural gas and we turned them on and ran them the whole time.
I had stored water and we were able to fill the toilet tanks by hand.
We cooked on camp stoves and the propane grill. Also had charcoal grill for back-up to the gas grill.
Our neighbor was a fireman and he plowed our driveway (a real long one) so we could join the crowds at the Safeway in Elizabeth.
After that, I bought a generator to run a few circuits - the well being priority.
And, no more power outages more than an hour or two.

[Bailey Guns]

I'm considering a generator as well and switching over to propane from natural gas. Water could still be an issue but the neighbor across the street has a well I have access to. Hauling water wouldn't be ideal but would work in an emergency. And I'd have power and heat issues solved. I always had my own source of heat, water and power when I lived in the mountains in CO and liked not being dependent on other infrastructure for those needs.

[walkerwv]

The key point of the discussion is that, regardless of the TX warm weather infrastructure cluster, renewables production across a 15 state zone went in the toilet, and the ONLY reason why this was not a 50 million person crisis were legacy systems able to fill the gap.

Texas runs alone and their grid is Not tied into the other power System to Sync in.. I work this field and yes Sir... Home Generator on a 100 underground diesel tank or 200, or 50 gallon built in is GOOD idea with a Auto Transfer switch.. 3 weeks run time at 24 hours a day and 92 Decibels. You will not even know your off the system.. ABSOULOUTLY a GREAT idea..

[MrPrena]

I blame it on Enron!

:D



https://www.denverpost.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/20060102_102547_logo_Enron.2005-2.jpg?w=200

[BladesNBarrels]

I blame it on Enron!

:D



https://www.denverpost.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/20060102_102547_logo_Enron.2005-2.jpg?w=200

Still looking for whatever Enron was selling..................besides BS

[earplug]

Is Tesla giving away Ford F150's with each purchase of a car?