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View Full Version : Real estate market: There has to be a "ceiling" doesn't there?



Martinjmpr
07-28-2021, 12:08
Just a random topic for discussion to [Pot] a little....

Here on the Front Range we've seen the real estate market go from "good" to "red hot" to "holy crap!" levels. I think the median home price in the metro area is something like $600k.

Back in 2017 we sold our small Englewood home (3br, 1ba) for what I thought then was a crazy $350k (if you'd asked me in 2016 I'd have guessed maybe $250k but only because we put in a lot of upgrades in 2008 including an oversized 2 car garage, new siding, windows, a roof and a furnace.)

We bought our house in the Columbine area for $415 and I think now even the most "conservative" appraisal has it at $500k or more. A couple of houses near us (albeit a bit larger than ours) have recently sold in the $650k range.

Now at first blush I'd be saying "WOO HOO!" because our home values have gone up. But then it gives me pause - because at this point, people are putting offers in at $20k - $40k above asking price and STILL being beat out.

Which makes me wonder - at what point do the sky high prices act as a deterrent to sales because people are reluctant to sell without knowing whether they'll be able to buy?

Our kids are in this situation now. They have a small-ish 3br house that they'd like to sell to move to something bigger for their growing kids, taking advantage of the increase in value of their house - but their dilemma is, they can't afford to BUY in this market. So, as a result, (a) they aren't buying and (b) they aren't selling.

The current housing market reminds me of an old joke about New York: "Nobody drives here - there's too much traffic!" [ROFL1]

So who the heck is BUYING all these houses? SOMEBODY is buying real estate at these (IMO) inflated prices, but who? Is it all "out of staters" moving here? And if they're so flush with cash from selling their homes, who is buying THOSE homes?

I studied history and law, not economics and business. But I don't see how this is sustainable. It seems to me that with the frenzy of building new construction, sooner or later, the "supply" of homes for sale is going to exceed the "demand" because there MUST be some kind of end point to the demand, mustn't there?

I even get that with historically low interest rates, people are pouring money into real estate because it's one of the only places you can invest money and get a decent return. But these homes being snapped up in hours can't ALL be investments, can they? I mean, it's a house, at some point somebody has to want to live there and if they don't it's not going to bring money to the investor, right?

I guess I just worry because it seems like we're on the part of the roller coaster where we're going up and up and up and it seems to me that sooner or later, there has to be a "down."

Anyway, I know we have a lot of smart people with different areas of expertise and experience so I thought this would be a good place to start this discussion....

eddiememphis
07-28-2021, 12:23
We are at the point where people are reluctant to sell. That is why the inventory is at historic lows.

Sure you can sell but you would likely end up in a smaller home for the same money.

If you have enough equity you can move laterally or up in some cases for the same house payment, depending, depending...

A lot of people in the real estate business are struggling because the amount of sales is so low- buying agents, inspectors like myself, appraisers, etc. We are not seeing the volume of the past. Selling agents are doing well, when they can find a seller.

ray1970
07-28-2021, 12:29
So who the heck is BUYING all these houses?

Assholes from California.

They move here because housing is cheap.

Martinjmpr
07-28-2021, 12:40
Assholes from California.

They move here because housing is cheap.

Sure, that's the facile answer and one I expected, but first question: if people are "fleeing" California, then who is buying THIER houses in CA?

They're not tacking an 'abandoned' sign on the door and driving away, they're SELLING their houses for huge prices in CA and then moving here.

Which means SOMEBODY in CA is buying that house for that crazy CA price, right?

Second question: Where are these "California people" working?

EDITED TO ADD: We hear so many people say California is falling apart, circling the drain, etc - and yet they still have crazy high real estate prices which means SOMEBODY is buying those houses when those people "flee" to CO, right?

Why would they pay crazy prices for CA houses if CA is, in fact, "falling apart?"

Gman
07-28-2021, 12:48
Housing is nuts in a lot of places. Our home here in WA has gone up at least $50K since January (and in hindsight we practically stole this place for what we paid in an estate sale).

My concern is that it's not going to be that housing value has gone up as much as the dollar value has gone down. It takes more dollars to buy anything these days.

eddiememphis
07-28-2021, 12:52
Why would they pay crazy prices for CA houses if CA is, in fact, "falling apart?"

Not everyone hates it there. If you like it or can't move because of whatever, buying a bigger or nicer home or moving school districts or name it is what a lot of people do.

It's not just California that people are leaving. I meet a lot of people from back east that are moving for climate, jobs or various reasons.

Not everyone has politics or taxes as their #1 reason to relocate.

Martinjmpr
07-28-2021, 13:22
My concern is that it's not going to be that housing value has gone up as much as the dollar value has gone down. It takes more dollars to buy anything these days.

I'm sure inflation is a factor, but if it was just inflation I'd expect prices to be going up by the same amount everywhere.

Seems to me there are two kinds of home buyers: Those that HAVE to buy and those that have a choice.

If someone is relocating from, say, Memphis to Denver, they don't have much choice. They can either buy an (IMO overpriced) house, or they can pay outrageous rent. At least with the house there is a chance that you might recoup some equity at sale time, whereas with rent you have a place to live but otherwise you are pissing money away paying somebody else's mortgage. So that person has pretty much no choice but to suck it up.

However, there are also the people who just want to "trade up" or move to a different part of town. Those people don't HAVE to buy and in this market, they'd be smart not to. You would think that would drive demand down somewhat, wouldn't you?

For that matter, if the person who's job relocates him from Memphis to Denver realizes his housing costs are going to be outrageous, he might choose to not take that job and not move here. Eventually that company is going to have difficulty finding employees unless they raise the salaries high enough that people can afford to move here.

ray1970
07-28-2021, 13:26
Sure, that's the facile answer and one I expected, but first question: if people are "fleeing" California, then who is buying THIER houses in CA?

They're not tacking an 'abandoned' sign on the door and driving away, they're SELLING their houses for huge prices in CA and then moving here.

Which means SOMEBODY in CA is buying that house for that crazy CA price, right?

Second question: Where are these "California people" working?

EDITED TO ADD: We hear so many people say California is falling apart, circling the drain, etc - and yet they still have crazy high real estate prices which means SOMEBODY is buying those houses when those people "flee" to CO, right?

Why would they pay crazy prices for CA houses if CA is, in fact, "falling apart?"

Yes, I was mostly being a smart ass.

You do bring up some valid points that I can?t explain or understand.

I am not a single guy (believe it or not) or I would likely sell my house here and relocate to some place with lower housing prices and cost of living. I could probably convince my wife to move in state but it just doesn?t make sense to sell and then have to buy a place nearby for more than double what we payed for our current place twenty plus years ago.

Great-Kazoo
07-28-2021, 13:30
Sure, that's the facile answer and one I expected, but first question: if people are "fleeing" California, then who is buying THIER houses in CA?

They're not tacking an 'abandoned' sign on the door and driving away, they're SELLING their houses for huge prices in CA and then moving here.

Which means SOMEBODY in CA is buying that house for that crazy CA price, right?

Second question: Where are these "California people" working?

EDITED TO ADD: We hear so many people say California is falling apart, circling the drain, etc - and yet they still have crazy high real estate prices which means SOMEBODY is buying those houses when those people "flee" to CO, right?

Why would they pay crazy prices for CA houses if CA is, in fact, "falling apart?"

They're not fleeing CA. "They" are being paid to infest red states, counties and cities. Hoping to turn the rest of the country, in to a plague infested shithole. Then move on towards the next target.




But on a serious note. The majority of CA residents we've met out here are gun owning, trump voting folks. Who retired or able to work from home, realizing the state was a lost cause. Are there some liberals, of course.




On a side note . In the 70's we'd party at some peoples homes, on the north shore of the island. Wondering how anyone could afford a quarter of a million dollar home.
Now that price range might get one a 2 bd, 1 bath starter home. In a hopefully, eventually, gentrified neighborhood.

ray1970
07-28-2021, 13:31
For that matter, if the person who's job relocates him from Memphis to Denver realizes his housing costs are going to be outrageous, he might choose to not take that job and not move here. Eventually that company is going to have difficulty finding employees unless they raise the salaries high enough that people can afford to move here.

I make less money than my counterparts who live and work in Wyoming.

Apparently there are more jobs than people in Wyoming so unless they are well compensated it is difficult to retain people.

And, yes, I have considered moving. Higher pay, lower cost or living, and no state income tax sounds like a win to me.

Martinjmpr
07-28-2021, 13:31
What actually got me to thinking about this was a news report I saw last night about how resort towns like Frisco were having difficulty finding places for their service industry employees to live. With the popularity of Air B&B and VRBO, small apartments and condos are being bought as "investments" and the supply of affordable housing has diminished to almost nothing. Meanwhile businesses are struggling to stay open with the diminishing number of employees able to work there.

And it sounds harsh, but part of me is thinking "isn't this a self-correcting problem?" I mean, at some point, aren't businesses going to have to start shutting down in these towns if they can't find employees to work there? They're either have to start paying people enough money to afford to live there - which will be passed on to customers in the form of higher prices - or the businesses start shutting down and pretty soon nobody wants to visit because there's no place to buy a cup of coffee or a decent meal.

Irving
07-28-2021, 13:35
A lot of our friends have recently moved and we know some real estate agents that confirm their experiences. There are large companies buying houses as investment properties for rentals. They will beat any price on a house just to get it. None of the people we know went with their offer though because it's shitty for the rest of the street and because they of course will have the most strict demands for repairs.

My wife thinks we're moving backwards because we aren't moving like everyone else, but I don't really want to buy a house in this market. I have a LOT of equity in my house ($300k ish), but I'd rather wait till a crash.

The real estate agents have been saying it's standard for houses to go 18-20% over list price, and that's all the way up well into the millions of dollars for the property. Generally that market is much slower, but that doesn't seem to be the case nor. Anyway, the problem is that if you're gong to end up paying 40k over asking, then you can't get a deal by buying a house that needs work because all your extra money to do the work just went out the window. It's a problem.

Martinjmpr
07-28-2021, 13:37
I make less money than my counterparts who live and work in Wyoming.

Apparently there are more jobs than people in Wyoming so unless they are well compensated it is difficult to retain people.

And, yes, I have considered moving. Higher pay, lower cost or living, and no state income tax sounds like a win to me.

Interesting, what industry?

I went to school in WY and one of the biggest problems when I was there was that the jobs in WY offered such crap pay that most UW graduates had to go out of state to work. Even if I had wanted to stay in WY, there just weren't enough jobs and the ones that were available had crazy low salaries, barely enough to get by (while housing costs in WY can be low, prices for almost everything else are higher than in the rest of the country due to the fact that, like Alaska, almost everything has to be brought in from somewhere else.)

When I graduated from law school I didn't even try to find work in WY. Unless I wanted to hang my own shingle, there just wasn't enough work there. And this was in 2005 when oil and gas were booming.

The boom-and-bust cycle economy in WY doesn't help either (although I'm sure it's been a benefit to the meth and prostitution sectors :D .)

Martinjmpr
07-28-2021, 13:44
The sub-prime mortgage crash of 2007 - 2008 pretty much hit the lower end of the real estate market. From what I recall, it was mostly houses in the $300k and lower range that were most likely to fall victim to foreclosure.

In any case it seems to me we are in a "bubble" right now and it's only a matter of time before the bubble bursts. When it does, the last ones to buy (at the highest prices) are going to be the ones that lost the most.

Martinjmpr
07-28-2021, 13:48
A lot of our friends have recently moved and we know some real estate agents that confirm their experiences. There are large companies buying houses as investment properties for rentals. They will beat any price on a house just to get it.

I've heard the same thing but it still begs the question, if companies are buying these to rent out, who is renting them? On FB marketplace I see 3br/2ba 2 story suburban homes for rent in the $2500 - $4000 range, which seems nuts to me. If you've got $2500/month to spend on housing, why on earth would you rent?

And yes, I know people do it, but again, it just doesn't seem to be sustainable to me.

What am I missing?

Grant H.
07-28-2021, 13:49
I'll have to see if I can find the article again, but they were talking about corporations buying housing at inflated prices. Almost to the point of not caring what they pay "over market"...

They then went into speculation as to why, but they had sales numbers that showed lots of RE transactions to corps.

Couple of thoughts that I have had since seeing that are:

Inflation "shelter" - hedges cash against shit interest rates, since property in general keeps up with inflation.
Tax shelter - depreciable assets instead of cash. It can also be viewed as a way to hedge against uncle joe and his cronies raising corp taxes.
Rental - potential to take advantage of high rental rates

Gman
07-28-2021, 13:51
What you're missing is the down payment. People may have the monthly rent but also no savings. You also have people with an income and bad credit.

Irving
07-28-2021, 13:51
Well multiple families, or single individuals can cover that rent easier. While everything you see in the news makes everything seem common, I don't know how common multiple families in a single family home is.

Little Dutch
07-28-2021, 14:01
It's insane out here. The neighborhood we are looking at is selling for 35-50 percent higher than 2015. Which seems to be the last time most of these sold.
Both of the ones we liked enough to bid on sold for 40-50k over asking. One of them I know was a cash sale.
A friend out in black forest took 720k for his place, cash offer. I called him a fool for taking the third offer. He was thrilled because it was 11k over. He should have waited the 3 days.

whitewalrus
07-28-2021, 15:39
There are companies now allowing you to ?buy? with cash and then get a loan on the property. Im sure it?s a sweet gig for them as they are likely not out their money very long.


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Doc45
07-28-2021, 16:10
I would never pay for my house what I could sell it for. It's not trashed by any means, 1600 sq ft including an unfinished basement, built in 1965, some updating would be nice and a fresh coat of paint and new carpet in the two areas that have carpet. It's just a nice single family home on 1/2 acre with a big back yard, great neighbors and a really great neighborhood. I hope to still be able to stay here when I retire.

Yes, it's the down payment that people can't come up with in order to purchase their first home. I don't see how my younger son and his soon to be wife will ever be able to buy a home. Everything that goes up must go down. We've been through housing price bursts before and will again.

BPTactical
07-28-2021, 16:18
I moved last November.
My house has already picked up $100k in value.
I am thankful that I was able put a huge amount down and the sellers sold for asked price.
Even if the bubble bursts (and it will) the market would have to seriously tank to come close to the modest mortgage we have.
It is nuts, 3 homes in our immediate hood have all sold in the last 3 months for $25-50k over asking.

MrPrena
07-28-2021, 16:21
I bought a house during financial crisis and bought it at "short"
it was amazing to bid on a house lower than asking back then. I just cannot buy another house at a market like this.

waiting for another 2008-2011.

BushMasterBoy
07-28-2021, 16:32
After the COVID quantitative easing the Federal Reserve is going to raise the prime rate. Too much money chasing too little goods and services. The price of money will go up ie borrowing will cost a lot more. Then the real estate bubble will burst. Unless there is a new form of wealth distribution, Federal Digital Currency. Then there might be a equitable solution. Until then the .gov will protect Wall Street before they protect you.

Sawin
07-28-2021, 16:54
If we sell, we will leave the state and buy elsewhere… we’ve just been lucky (and insightful) on timing to far. I bought in may 2008, sold it in April 2017, and rolled that huge equity over into a much larger place on the other side of I25… it’s now a quarter million more than it was when we bought it so should be able to sell and never have a mortgage again in a place like KY or TN, on some land….

That’s my hope at least… just gonna see what happens for a few more years while the kids keep growing :)

Sawin
07-28-2021, 16:56
And in case nobody’s noticed, the prices of everything are higher as a result of all the massive cash creation over the last 6-8 years

whitewalrus
07-28-2021, 17:02
And in case nobody?s noticed, the prices of everything are higher as a result of all the massive cash creation over the last 6-8 years

This, but housing is beyond insane and normally accounts for a large percentage of the average persons spending.


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fitterjohn
07-28-2021, 17:47
I would never pay for my house what I could sell it for. It's not trashed by any means, 1600 sq ft including an unfinished basement, built in 1965, some updating would be nice and a fresh coat of paint and new carpet in the two areas that have carpet. It's just a nice single family home on 1/2 acre with a big back yard, great neighbors and a really great neighborhood. I hope to still be able to stay here when I retire.

Yes, it's the down payment that people can't come up with in order to purchase their first home. I don't see how my younger son and his soon to be wife will ever be able to buy a home. Everything that goes up must go down. We've been through housing price bursts before and will again.

I see it the same way. I bought mine in 2008 for 158k. (78 build 1400 sqft on an 8k lot)a few months ago I bought a riding now down the street from me. They had moved to Florida and were asking 490k for it same floor plan just a 2 car garage vs 1 car and about 300sqft more back yard. Sold In Less than a week. I would never pay that for my house

Great-Kazoo
07-28-2021, 17:49
And in case nobody’s noticed, the prices of everything are higher as a result of all the massive cash creation over the last 6-8 years

Prices are higher due to demand, outpacing supply. Yes trumps time in office helped, however this clown we have now, who knows what will happen.

clodhopper
07-28-2021, 18:08
After the COVID quantitative easing the Federal Reserve is going to raise the prime rate. Too much money chasing too little goods and services. The price of money will go up ie borrowing will cost a lot more. Then the real estate bubble will burst. Unless there is a new form of wealth distribution, Federal Digital Currency. Then there might be a equitable solution. Until then the .gov will protect Wall Street before they protect you.

That is the normal or traditional pattern. But much of the federal debt is tied to the interest rate, ie what the .gov pays in debt service. Not all of it is at a locked rate. The fed wont willy nilly raise interest rates as it also raises the debt service that comes right off the top of tax receipts. That downward pressure on rates will keep them lower than would otherwise be logical. We wont see Jimmy Carter interest rates because it will collapse the economy from the debt service. Currently the solution is to BRRRR run the money printers. Some other stupid solution will come after this. Raising the rates, the logical response, will be avoided at all costs. So this housing bubble, based on cheap money, will extend longer than it would otherwise.

Martinjmpr
07-28-2021, 18:56
That is the normal or traditional pattern. But much of the federal debt is tied to the interest rate, ie what the .gov pays in debt service. Not all of it is at a locked rate. The fed wont willy nilly raise interest rates as it also raises the debt service that comes right off the top of tax receipts. That downward pressure on rates will keep them lower than would otherwise be logical. We wont see Jimmy Carter interest rates because it will collapse the economy from the debt service. Currently the solution is to BRRRR run the money printers. Some other stupid solution will come after this. Raising the rates, the logical response, will be avoided at all costs. So this housing bubble, based on cheap money, will extend longer than it would otherwise.

Yes, I've heard much the same elsewhere. The thing is, while low interest rates are great for real estate (and wall street) they suck for people who's retirement is invested in "safe" bonds and blue chip stocks. It's gotten to the point where real estate and the stock market are the only things making money anymore and they both seem to be ripe for a "correction" (i.e. crash) some time soon.

As far as real estate itself goes, there is a huge range of prices. Sometimes just for fun I get onto Realtor.com and look at home prices in other parts of the country. I set up a "base" house requirement, like 3 br, 2 ba, detached home with 2 car garage, and then see what that goes for in various markets.

There are still parts of the US where you can get a pretty decent home with a couple of acres for ~$150k or less. That seems nuts here in CO where you can barely get a 1 BR 1 BA condo for that much.

brutal
07-28-2021, 20:34
Been getting crazy money cash offers by mail for a while now.

Crazy money. However, we're very much grounded here with the grandson.

MrPrena
07-30-2021, 12:07
let's assume we willl have 40% correction, that is still approx 2018 housing price.

I am still looking for newly built 5500sq ft 4 car garage $290,000 house in Denver metro!

[LOL]

PugnacAutMortem
07-30-2021, 12:52
Real estate agent here...and I hear a lot about "the bubble" from people. Here's the thing, in the Denver Metro area at least, there is no bubble.

What we are seeing here is an extreme of supply and demand. The last stats we have are for June of this year, and there's a total of ~2,800 active listings in the entire Denver Metro Area. Now over 6,000 homes were put under contract in June though. That means we have just about 2 weeks worth of inventory in Denver at any given point in time. You couple this extreme lack of inventory with historic low mortgage rates and you get the craziest sellers market we have ever seen. On top of all that, Colorado is still one of (if not the single biggest) destination for people migrating inside the US.

To put just how little inventory we have in perspective, a real estate market is considered a balanced market (neither a sellers or buyers market) when there is 6 months of available inventory, or in our case around 36,000 active listings. So we could literally 10x our inventory and STILL be in a sellers market. It's literally a perfect storm of contributing factors that are driving pricing up.

Pricing might go down a bit at some point, but we are still hearing long term predictions that our housing market will continue to grow. From 2010 to 2020, home values in the metro area doubled. We are hearing predictions that from now until 2030, home values could double AGAIN. Crazy times we live in.

Gman
07-30-2021, 12:54
let's assume we willl have 40% correction, that is still approx 2018 housing price.

I am still looking for newly built 5500sq ft 4 car garage $290,000 house in Denver metro!

[LOL]
...with acreage.

Gman
07-30-2021, 13:00
There are companies now allowing you to ?buy? with cash and then get a loan on the property. Im sure it?s a sweet gig for them as they are likely not out their money very long.


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We didn't go through a company, but we bought our home with cash for the asking price in Jan. Now we're doing a cash-out refi to do some home improvement projects. So now we'll have a small mortgage payment at a low rate in a much improved home that will easily command a better sales price than what we put into it.

Real estate can be a great investment. As my first wife's uncle would say, "Invest in real estate. They're not making more land."

Martinjmpr
07-30-2021, 13:19
Pricing might go down a bit at some point, but we are still hearing long term predictions that our housing market will continue to grow. From 2010 to 2020, home values in the metro area doubled. We are hearing predictions that from now until 2030, home values could double AGAIN. Crazy times we live in.

For purely selfish reasons I'd love for the prices to continue to rise, since I plan on retiring in about 3 years and the wife is already talking about moving to someplace less crowded, less expensive and (hopefully) warmer in the winter.

But there's also a part of me that says that crazy high prices are not good in the long run. You mentioned CO being a popular destination for people from other states - at what point do people say "I'd love to move to CO but I just can't afford to live there?" and then what?

Or are people just going up to their eyeballs in debt to get a house because they "know" the prices will continue to rise? To me that ends up looking like a classic pyramid scheme: The ones at the "bottom" of the pyramid (i.e. the ones who bought years ago at a lower price) will do OK but the ones who just moved here and financed a $650,000 mortgage on a house that in a less-heated market would have gone for $400k will be stuck with that crazy high mortgage when the housing prices collapse. They'll be in a hole that will take years to dig out of.

Then of course there are other factors like water. If people keep moving here, putting up houses with big green lawns, they're going to deplete water to the point where everyone has a $300/month water bill.

As I said, we are currently 'benefiting' from the high RE prices but it doesn't seem sustainable in the long run.

Gman
07-30-2021, 13:34
Yeah, if the market does dip a chunk, I'd hate to be upside down in a house.

FoxtArt
07-30-2021, 14:11
I am not sure if anyone is capable of predicting and timing a sag. But it will come, at some point. Maybe five months, maybe five years. Even if inventory is tremendously fast moving today, just as in any other market (guns for instance) once the real estate inventory starts inflating a bit, a lot of the demand will also drop, each factor affects the other until a potential spiral occurs because the lack of inventory is causing a lot of the buying pressure in the first place. Even if in normal conditions several months of inventory is a sellers market, in today's market, buyers would start to relax a bit and a lot of others would be holding off anticipating a future crash - the fear in fact, results in the truth.

Same thing with guns - most of the buying pressure on guns during panic season is induced simply by the lack of availability. Once the availability increases, that pressure drops, and the industry hemorrhages from a catastrophic drop in sales, bankruptcies ensure.

That said, I'm not anticipating anything too soon.

MrPrena
07-30-2021, 14:26
Yeah, if the market does dip a chunk, I'd hate to be upside down in a house.

ouch. v2 of housing crash will suck.

I know 2009-2011 was mainly due to sub prime and crazy adjj rate, but many were up side down, but this time might be due to excessive supply.
I speculate that some % baby boomers are moving to smaller places and selling overall. however the data doesn't show existing home are still not in surplus.

many of us consider house as property to hedge against the rising rent cost+ writeoff+ partial office space for small s and/or self employed space.

Sadly many people in CA consider it as a status.
So many people in silicon Valley and LA county upgrading 1100sq ft house to 1500. People in rural Alabama is probably laughing about that.

BushMasterBoy
07-30-2021, 15:29
Well if enemy space aliens attacked the earth with asteroids, I would not want to be living near the coastal areas. We will probably see a lot more growth in Colorado.

Link below will let you calculate the damage done.



https://education.down2earth.eu/impact_calculator

arbol
07-30-2021, 18:40
I am not sure if anyone is capable of predicting and timing a sag. But it will come, at some point. Maybe five months, maybe five years. Even if inventory is tremendously fast moving today, just as in any other market (guns for instance) once the real estate inventory starts inflating a bit, a lot of the demand will also drop, each factor affects the other until a potential spiral occurs because the lack of inventory is causing a lot of the buying pressure in the first place. Even if in normal conditions several months of inventory is a sellers market, in today's market, buyers would start to relax a bit and a lot of others would be holding off anticipating a future crash - the fear in fact, results in the truth.

Same thing with guns - most of the buying pressure on guns during panic season is induced simply by the lack of availability. Once the availability increases, that pressure drops, and the industry hemorrhages from a catastrophic drop in sales, bankruptcies ensure.

That said, I'm not anticipating anything too soon.

What everyone is missing is that there is so much money (Government spending Trillions of dollars into debt) out there, that, while you and I may not have it, somebody has it.

Housing Markets are out of control, and will stay, out of control. There is just too much money out there.

What we, normal people need to do, is buy well. It will appreciate.

arbol
07-30-2021, 18:47
Inflation is coming...

arbol
07-30-2021, 19:25
It's probably the Government Employees that have most of the money.

Washington, DC, etc.

arbol
07-30-2021, 19:27
After all, they make the money, they spend the money, so they should get their share.

arbol
07-30-2021, 19:30
We should reduce Government, and demand a Balanced Budget Amendment.

MrPrena
07-30-2021, 19:58
inflation is already here. Hyperinflation is coming.

https://alphahistory.com/weimarrepublic/wp-content/uploads/hyperinflationkite.jpg

https://tobirommel.files.wordpress.com/2019/10/hyperinflation.jpg?w=640

arbol
07-30-2021, 20:14
I'm not sure that Americans are going to be good with Government burning money.

MrPrena
07-30-2021, 20:58
If this craziness continues, Ron Paul might really get elected. :D


https://imageproxy.ifunny.co/crop:x-20,resize:640x,quality:90x75/images/b770699200d0312be644d25c62b5d86cdeb5569fb85604f988 996b349343e8ab_1.jpg

FoxtArt
07-31-2021, 09:12
If this craziness continues, Ron Paul might really get elected. :D


https://imageproxy.ifunny.co/crop:x-20,resize:640x,quality:90x75/images/b770699200d0312be644d25c62b5d86cdeb5569fb85604f988 996b349343e8ab_1.jpg

Yeah, know you are joking. But our society is shifting to one where a minority has savings of any value, so inflation can be seen as a benefit to those underwater in debt. Including our country itself, there has even been official government thought of using inflation to pay back national debt. Sadly, we are in a place where someone advocating the opposite of Ron Paul could just as easily get elected.

Of course they fail to realize that income doesn't keep pace with that inflation.

VolksDragon
07-31-2021, 13:18
Inflation is coming...

Inflation is upon us for sure. Anyone tried to buy a new or used truck lately?

It's weird, since one of the most valuable positions to hold in an inflation scenario is hard assets...like real estate. Almost like the investors and hard money firms buying up blocks of SFH know something they think we don't.

A correction may come (and historically, every market is cyclical), but owning anything at pre-inflation dollars is a good bet at the moment.

Manster
07-31-2021, 15:38
I?m getting ready to bail and move to the southeast. 40 acres and the same size house for 100k less. Same job, same salary. I missed the craziness? it has been in a lull in the past 4 weeks? so waiting a bit longer