View Full Version : Inventory and availability discussion
Great-Kazoo
10-18-2021, 16:27
As some of us have noticed. There seems to be a lack of on shelf items, across the board, in stores.
Particularly alarming, for those unprepared, or just waking up.
I'd like to keep this thread geared specifically to what everyone is seeing while shopping.
Forget about meat & poultry prices. There has been an increase for all items since the great uniter took office.
Anyway. I'll start off with the following. YES i know i'm in AZ. However Krogers, Albertsons / Safeway, Walmart, grocery stores are fairly much the same set up and design across the country. Plus, one gets to see how different areas of CO and other states, are doing food stores, wise.
10/15/21 Safeway is running about 1/2 inventory on frozen poTAYtoes, veggies, canned good and rice.
1017/21 wallyworld. Another one with 1/2 the shelves stocked, across the board in grocery.. Stopped in two , on different sides of prescott, same results.
Still seeing at least 1 OUT OF ORDER bag on most gas stations. Of course we've seen a $0.18 jump per gal, over the last week.
.
hollohas
10-18-2021, 18:47
I've noticed the frozen Jimmy Deans breakfast section has been bare the last few weeks at our Safeway.
Went to AutoZone last week and they had TWO bottles of windshield fluid. I bought one of those. They didn't even have any of the cheap blue stuff. Only two of the purple. This was NOT during any kind of storm. The employee said their store was bare and they hadn't seen a truck in a while and didn't know when they were getting one.
Qdoba in Conifer last week was out of queso and various other ingredients. They said they didn't know when they'd get a resupply.
Gas station by my house has run out of fuel multiple times with all pumps covered. Confirmed empty by employee.
GFCI receptacles are going to be hard to get soon due to chip shortage. My supply house is being limited by the manufacturer to HALF of average monthly purchases.
Went to look for a new Toyota Sequoia in Denver Metro. There were a total of TWO in stock all over town today, combined.
Walgreens has VERY empty shelves everytime I go in. Especially the seasonal and gum/candy sections.
Certain transmission fluid has been difficult to find. It took a few of us a total of 8 stores to find enough to do a refill after replacing a solenoid pack.
I haven't seen chicken livers at any store in Colorado since last spring.
A local fuel station has had no premium (and therefore midgrade) for a few weeks
funkymonkey1111
10-18-2021, 20:22
Park Meadows Costco was flush with Kirkland TP and Paper Towels this evening. No Charmin or Bounty. Looked to be stocked with most cleaners and other items.
I was at the Costco Business Center this afternoon. I've heard that ice melt may be in short supply this winter. They had four bags--I bought one. Interestingly, a particular nitrile glove i like (Venom brand) used to be $12.50/100 there. Now they're $23/100. Checking at harbor freight for nitrile gloves show that price isn't bad at all. 7mil are $18.99/50 there. 9mil are $22.99/50
Park Meadows Costco was flush with Kirkland TP and Paper Towels this evening. No Charmin or Bounty. Looked to be stocked with most cleaners and other items.
I was at the Costco Business Center this afternoon. I've heard that ice melt may be in short supply this winter. They had four bags--I bought one. Interestingly, a particular nitrile glove i like (Venom brand) used to be $12.50/100 there. Now they're $23/100. Checking at harbor freight for nitrile gloves show that price isn't bad at all. 7mil are $18.99/50 there. 9mil are $22.99/50
HF used to be around $10 for the 7mil
[B]if you need a 11.9 liter Cummins it is currently 74 weeks if
You need a def level sensor it?s 25-30 weeks main kenworth dash computer sometime in 2023 I can go on for paragraphs off of solely truck parts we can?t get[B]
This is not going away.
find what you need and pay what you can if you can. The profiteers are going to make theirs
But they are small potatoes. The component manufacturers are the bottle neck. The castings for the engine blocks and heads for the 11.9 mentioned are made in Brazil and India. Both have been hammered by the vid and way behind on production
We have new repair procedures to make previously out of spec parts that where an automatic replace to glue it together and hope for the best
theGinsue
10-18-2021, 22:31
Over 50% of the motor oil (at least the gallon jugs) at my WalMart are out, including the one I use in my wifes car. Went to Auto Zone - they had a lot of bare space on the oil shelves but had 1 gallon of the stuff I needed. (Also bought a danmed Club for my truck since auto theft is skyrocketing. Need help installing a kill switch.)
I snuck out of the house (COVID isolation and all) last Thursday to buy milk (Yes, I was masked with a medical N95). Again WalMart. On a Thursday about noon and at least 3/4 of the milk, shelves were bare. Very little coffee creamer and no cream or 1/2 & 1/2. Saw LOTS of bare shelves but those are the ones I paid particular attention to.
.455_Hunter
10-18-2021, 23:04
Again WalMart. On a Thursday about noon and at least 3/4 of the milk, shelves were bare. Very little coffee creamer and no cream or 1/2 & 1/2. Saw LOTS of bare shelves but those are the ones I paid particular attention to.
Yup- "Normal" milk products at the 92nd and Sheridan Walmart were zero balance on Saturday night.
Deep base paint and stain for making dark colors haven't been available for many months. Sherwin Williams called today to say they can supply a quart of lower grade latex trim paint. Gee, thanks. Need to paint & stain two houses. None of it available. Maybe next year
Paint resins are in short supply. It's affecting some automakers offerings.
RAM has pulled the "Night Edition" option from all trims except the top end Limited. Confirmed factory orders from the 4 months prior to the cutoff will get built but no new orders.
Lots of creature comfort options are pulled including power fold tow mirrors, blind spot monitoring, etc. Again, on mostly all except the premium trim models.
thedave1164
10-19-2021, 05:16
We have noticed for months now that the bags of IQF boneless/skinless chicken thighs are missing from Sam's and their IQF chicken in general is pretty limited.
There was a dip in paper products, but it looks like it has caught back up, I am seeing 1 package per day signs.
I managed to grab a new 7.0cf chest freezer and just started filling it with meat, I processed 100lbs yesterday, vacuum packed into family size portions, need to make another run now to find more meat.
Spray paint was empty at WM the other day
HoneyBadger
10-19-2021, 07:50
Grocery shelves in Alabama and Florida are about 1/3 empty for most items.
Great-Kazoo
10-19-2021, 09:08
We have noticed for months now that the bags of IQF boneless/skinless chicken thighs are missing from Sam's and their IQF chicken in general is pretty limited.
There was a dip in paper products, but it looks like it has caught back up, I am seeing 1 package per day signs.
I managed to grab a new 7.0cf chest freezer and just started filling it with meat, I processed 100lbs yesterday, vacuum packed into family size portions, need to make another run now to find more meat.
Spray paint was empty at WM the other day
Have another 1 being delivered next week. Can't come soon enough. I'm defrosting various meats, to smoke, then vacuum seal and freeze. Thankfully we have another lamb going to the processor end of nov.
Deep base paint and stain for making dark colors haven't been available for many months. Sherwin Williams called today to say they can supply a quart of lower grade latex trim paint. Gee, thanks. Need to paint & stain two houses. None of it available. Maybe next year
Ace Hardware is stocked with both. The same for washer fluid, ice melt, CFCI outlets…for the time being. Don’t go there looking for canning supplies.
hollohas
10-19-2021, 16:28
Ace is all fine for the homeowner. But a contractor working on a 250 unit apartment complex, needing 1,000 GFCI recepts or paint or meter sockets or plastic junction boxes or any number of other things that can't be found in any quality right now? Not gonna work. Now multiply that by dozens and dozens and dozens of similar size projects, just in Denver. Then it's clear what a major problem we have on our hands.
My company goes through roughly 65k+ residential, white, 15A GFCI receptacles each year. Plus 20A and weather resistant and other colors. Now we're only allowed to buy half of what we need from the manufacturer. And we're about ready to run out... No building passes inspection without them (or GFCI breakers that are also impossible to get). And when buildings don't pass inspection, they can't be occupied. When they can't be occupied, owners lose shit tons of money. When owners lose money, building stops.
Now add the same problem for dozens of other building materials...
We're FUBAR.
>20 weeks on some industrial controls (PLC hardware)
Very bad if say a power plant or wastewater plant can’t get repair parts. Let alone new construction.
Ace is all fine for the homeowner. But a contractor working on a 250 unit apartment complex, needing 1,000 GFCI recepts or paint or meter sockets or plastic junction boxes or any number of other things that can't be found in any quality right now? Not gonna work. Now multiply that by dozens and dozens and dozens of similar size projects, just in Denver. Then it's clear what a major problem we have on our hands.
My company goes through roughly 65k+ residential, white, 15A GFCI receptacles each year. Plus 20A and weather resistant and other colors. Now we're only allowed to buy half of what we need from the manufacturer. And we're about ready to run out... No building passes inspection without them (or GFCI breakers that are also impossible to get). And when buildings don't pass inspection, they can't be occupied. When they can't be occupied, owners lose shit tons of money. When owners lose money, building stops.
Now add the same problem for dozens of other building materials...
We're FUBAR.
Well, there is that. I'm sure contractors are a whole other story compared to the homeowner.
whitewalrus
10-19-2021, 17:38
Over 50% of the motor oil (at least the gallon jugs) at my WalMart are out, including the one I use in my wifes car. Went to Auto Zone - they had a lot of bare space on the oil shelves but had 1 gallon of the stuff I needed. (Also bought a danmed Club for my truck since auto theft is skyrocketing. Need help installing a kill switch.)
I snuck out of the house (COVID isolation and all) last Thursday to buy milk (Yes, I was masked with a medical N95). Again WalMart. On a Thursday about noon and at least 3/4 of the milk, shelves were bare. Very little coffee creamer and no cream or 1/2 & 1/2. Saw LOTS of bare shelves but those are the ones I paid particular attention to.
Diesel motor oil jugs at Walmart tend to rarely be in stock. Most auto parts stores will have some, but not everything.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
PVC pipe has doubled in price and is also scarce.
hollohas
10-20-2021, 19:18
Costco today was out of TP, which is becoming fairly normal. They were also sold out of white and apple cider vinegar and all canned tomatoes.
Caribou coffee is stocking up in preparation for coffee supply to be disturbed. (OMG, I couldn't survive that!)
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-10-19/caribou-coffee-preparing-for-the-worst-stocks-up-on-supplies
This article quotes the CEO as saying they expect things to normalize a bit by the end of 2022. That's what I'm hearing by all of my industry publications and vendors too. Supply is going to be f'd until the end of 2022. Usually these folks are fairly optimistic in their predictions so my gut says this could really end up going longer.
Cheetos still on the shelf.
Milk products I can do without. When the stores start running out of essential items like cookies and chips or spicy pickles then it will be panic time.
And God bless the brewers and distillers for maintaining a steady stream of libations throughout all of this.
No shortage of Liberal Tears.
Cheetos have dairy in them. Just sayin'.
Got our 15.7 cf freezer delivered last weekend. Have been stocking it as quickly as possible.
Ordered some ice cream pints of various makes and flavors at Walmart and got none of them.
Got 2 pork butts to smoke and package this weekend with more in the freezer.
Get what you can while you can.
Supposed to have the kitchen remodeled and selected flooring became unobtanium.
hollohas
10-21-2021, 14:32
PVC pipe has doubled in price and is also scarce.PVC is horrible. Just over a year ago 10ft of 2" Sch 40 electrical PVC was $7.50ish today it's $37.50ish.
PVC prices doubled overnight around 10/2020. And have continued a rapid and constant climb more than doubling again since then.
kidicarus13
10-21-2021, 15:46
Is anyone looking at commercial long term-food storage as part of the solution or should I just go out and drain my local Costco and Sam's Club?
With that thought, any recommendations on long-term food brands based on taste?
Vic Tory
10-21-2021, 16:52
Is anyone looking at commercial long term-food storage as part of the solution or should I just go out and drain my local Costco and Sam's Club?
With that thought, any recommendations on long-term food brands based on taste?
1. As this thread is entitled "Inventory and Availability" ... these factors may drive your decision making.
2. Watch out for storage food companies which are <10 years old ... offering 25 year "guarantees" on the life and quality of their food. (Think about that....)
3. Your wallet may make these decisions for you these days. Freeze-dried food is easy to prepare ... and among the most expensive. IF you can find it.
4. IMO the companies which spend the most money advertising their storage food tend to be more expensive. (You don't think THEY pay for their marketing do you?)
5. I saw in another thread Augason Farms (Great folks!) is in the midst of a 90-day shutdown. THEY couldn't get enough inventory(!).
6. Taste: This is one of those YMMV things, but for me ... Augason and Mountain House. (I just visited Mountain House's site. I was surprised to see they still have some nice Emergency Food paks available.)
encorehunter
10-21-2021, 17:27
I am having issues with tomatoes. We go through about 25lbs a week. We pay about $2 a lb now, where a month ago it was $1. This last week, they cancelled the order because the wholesaler couldn't get them. Bacon is back up to $5 a pound again as well. It was $3 a pound two weeks ago. It adds up fast when you order 90 lbs a week.
.455_Hunter
10-21-2021, 18:13
I am having issues with tomatoes. We go through about 25lbs a week. We pay about $2 a lb now, where a month ago it was $1. This last week, they cancelled the order because the wholesaler couldn't get them. Bacon is back up to $5 a pound again as well. It was $3 a pound two weeks ago. It adds up fast when you order 90 lbs a week.
Restaurant?
Restaurant?
or Mormon. LOL
Local Safeway was without Starbucks coffee for several weeks. A couple days ago, the shelves were restocked, so I stocked up on a few bags of Sumatra.
Common oil filters are often out of stock at Walmart. Yes, I know I can go to NAPA or AutoZone, but I'm not paying 4X the cost.
Soft drinks with real sugar are scarce, like Pepsi, Mt Dew, and various Ice Teas.
Half & Half is often out of stock.
What's not scarce is people living on the Government tit.
We should pass a balanced budget amendment.
PVC is horrible. Just over a year ago 10ft of 2" Sch 40 electrical PVC was $7.50ish today it's $37.50ish.
PVC prices doubled overnight around 10/2020. And have continued a rapid and constant climb more than doubling again since then.
Yeah, tell me about it. I bought 10 sticks each of 1-1/4" and 2" and it was just over $1000 out the door.
I predict vehicle tires are going to become scarce, and skyrocket in price.
Better stock up.
I have extra tires and rims for all my vehicles.
Great-Kazoo
10-21-2021, 20:26
Restaurant?
Him and his wife own Bob n Earls in trinidad . Nice little hometown place, a little off the main drag, but worth the trip. .
Great-Kazoo
10-21-2021, 20:33
Is anyone looking at commercial long term-food storage as part of the solution or should I just go out and drain my local Costco and Sam's Club?
With that thought, any recommendations on long-term food brands based on taste?
There's 2 other threads in the S&P section. To date the canned items from lds, have been worth stocking up on. I know powdered milk brings [panic] to people. However anytime i've served it, no one has a clue it's not from that container. The LDS / Mormon powdered milk is literally powdered, like a fine talcum powder consistency.
Their fruits, veggies and other items are worth (to us) the storage space. But we're also one of those families that eat locally raised lamb & goat. So to a lot of people we have weird taste buds. Instead of realizing they have been preparing and cooking it wrong ;)
I'd wager , if you started a new discussion in this forum. You'd get a variety of replies, considering 2020 woke some people up. Realizing they were woefully unprepared, across the board.
Been a good run on Rotella T6 5W-40 full synthetic oil required in the 19+ Cummins 6.7L.
I had 3 gals on hand (one change) and just picked up another case of 3 online. Nothing in the store.
Some were complaining about lack of oil filters, but I don't use that cheap shit Fram stuff and had stock on Mopar and/or Fleetguard filters. Ditto on the expensive diesel fuel filters. I put on so little miles, the oil and filters get changed once/year. I could probably do oil analysis and extend it to 2 years.
A week or so ago, DEF aka pig piss was getting scarce and I may need some to get through the winter, so I grabbed 3 of the last 6 2.5gal jugs of the almost cheapest brand (Peak base). I did see they had more on a pallet not yet unloaded.
We just got a 1/4 beef and picked up my antelope sausage/jerky/snacks so freezers are full up.
Need chicken, only have a few of the IFC breasts left.
Paid $4.19/gal before discount for Premium for my Eurotrash 91 octane eating hot rod.
Got the Covid mandate letter today we are stuck meeting the Fed contractor mandate. I got jabbed before Biden puked nonsense so while it sucks for our freedoms, doesn't affect my job.
Local Safeway was without Starbucks coffee for several weeks. A couple days ago, the shelves were restocked, so I stocked up on a few bags of Sumatra.
Common oil filters are often out of stock at Walmart. Yes, I know I can go to NAPA or AutoZone, but I'm not paying 4X the cost.
Soft drinks with real sugar are scarce, like Pepsi, Mt Dew, and various Ice Teas.
Half & Half is often out of stock.
We stock up on Dunkin Donut coffee when it's on sale usually buy all they have on the shelf but our stock is a bit low right now.
If you're buying Fram filters, pay the extra at Napa for something that isn't garbage. I guess their new high end "synthetic" filter is OK but I still don't trust them for the garbage they have been selling for too many years now.
encorehunter
10-22-2021, 05:19
Yes, restaurant. We are getting a lot of subs for different products. It's making very difficult to keep serving certain foods.
hollohas
10-22-2021, 12:06
Checkout these attempts to keep shelves "full". Like my earlier post about Costco using empty pallets to fill dead space, others stores are getting creative too.
This looks like a Walmart or something with hundreds of folding chairs on display on shelf after shelf.
https://twitter.com/ArtValley818_/status/1451288329245368325
A Safeway with single rows of french fried onions filling shelves.
https://twitter.com/AsheSchow/status/1451204344599257088
And another grocery store with Mac n cheese filling an entire section with single rows of boxes.
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20211022/3238fc2fb4ba4d8465cda14f90f084ec.jpg
hollohas
10-22-2021, 12:19
More clever techniques to hide the symptoms of encroaching communism. https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20211022/9ea5ace89a0338577fa6f3ff5e407301.jpg
.455_Hunter
10-22-2021, 12:25
More clever techniques to hide the symptoms of encroaching communism. https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20211022/9ea5ace89a0338577fa6f3ff5e407301.jpg
Holy crap! Where is that?
hollohas
10-22-2021, 12:50
Holy crap! Where is that?I don't know. I've just been following some Twitter feeds where people are posting pictures of what they're seeing out there.
funkymonkey1111
10-22-2021, 13:07
Been a good run on Rotella T6 5W-40 full synthetic oil required in the 19+ Cummins 6.7L.
i found some at the WalMart on Chambers and Parker Road this morning. There was 1 gal left
i found some at the WalMart on Chambers and Parker Road this morning. There was 1 gal left
I ordered 3 gal online for $22.28/gal so I don't have to endure "the people of wal-mart."
thedave1164
10-22-2021, 19:56
Looking for oil?
Try Tractor Supply, they have sales on Rotella all the time, you have to hit it when the sale starts though, a week later and the stock is gone.
Just picked up a 5gal pail of Mobil Delvac 1300 15w-40 for 49.99
theGinsue
10-22-2021, 20:01
This article quotes the CEO as saying they expect things to normalize a bit by the end of 2022. That's what I'm hearing by all of my industry publications and vendors too. Supply is going to be f'd until the end of 2022. Usually these folks are fairly optimistic in their predictions so my gut says this could really end up going longer.
If the Dems in charge of the nation right now don't figure out how to quickly get this under control it will absolutely be an item of concern for the voting public....assuming no more clearly obvious & MASSIVE election fraud occurs. If that happens, all bets are of on civility. If people can't eat and the next major election is so obviously stolen that even the wantonly ignorant in this nation can't help but see it, people will revolt. I sometimes think that might be the intended end goal in all of this.
I thought I had a good food cache but now I'm thinking I need to double it, or more.
Vic Tory
10-22-2021, 20:56
What Ginsue posted.
... all bets are of on civility. If people can't eat and the next major election is so obviously stolen that even the wantonly ignorant in this nation can't help but see it, people will revolt. I sometimes think that might be the intended end goal in all of this.
I thought I had a good food cache but now I'm thinking I need to double it, or more.
hollohas
10-22-2021, 21:20
I used to think Americans would revolt over stuff like this. I even claimed, probably on this very forum, that America wouldn't control the outbreak well specifically because we'd never agree to any sort of lockdown or mandates. Boy, was I wrong. I no longer think any significant group of Americans will revolt even if all that happens.
After all, the lefties would just loot Target stores and smash the windows at Starbucks while the righties would just condemn any of their own who stand up, chastising them "but we're better than that" and claim "we must work within the system".
We've already seen that bringing your displeasure directly to the people who created this mess is icky, "un-American" domestic terrorism.
Revolt will never happen. There's no fight in us. We'll keep on walking to our shity totalitarian future like every other country that's been taken over by commies.
whitewalrus
10-22-2021, 22:33
Looking for oil?
Try Tractor Supply, they have sales on Rotella all the time, you have to hit it when the sale starts though, a week later and the stock is gone.
Just picked up a 5gal pail of Mobil Delvac 1300 15w-40 for 49.99
I think the manufacturer rebate is still going on for the delvac, save you some more money.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
DenverGP
10-22-2021, 22:50
My neighbor is a commercial plumber. Wasn't out at the jobsite the past couple days because he hasn't been able to get the PVC pipe he needs for the job. Supposedly he'll be able to get some monday. He had a pretty massive stockpile, but used it all the past couple months.
thedave1164
10-23-2021, 06:54
My neighbor is a commercial plumber. Wasn't out at the jobsite the past couple days because he hasn't been able to get the PVC pipe he needs for the job. Supposedly he'll be able to get some monday. He had a pretty massive stockpile, but used it all the past couple months.
There is a lesson in that, always be replacing what you can of what you use in your stock pile, or the pile will be out of stock.
hollohas
10-23-2021, 08:42
If people saw how truly bad the supply situation is within the construction industry, they'd be shocked. It is across the board awful.
I've had plastic junction boxes on order since May/june for multiple large projects and have not received them. I used to have tens of thousands in stock at all times and could deliver large projects the next day.
I can't get smoke/co detectors w/ strobe, backordered for months.
Residential meter stacks have a 40 week lead time (used to be 3-4). I haven't seen a shipment of single meter sockets since May.
120/208v and 277/480 panelboards are 40 business days to ship. Used to be a week or from local stock.
600v fuses are nearly impossible to get.
2 pole 30/40/50A circuit breakers are non-existent for some reason.
All of these things are absolutely essential to building any sort of building.
I could go on and on. These are just a few examples that I had to deal with yesterday. Doesn't even take into account that all these things cost WAY more than a year ago.
HoneyBadger
10-23-2021, 08:45
I used to think Americans would revolt over stuff like this. I even claimed, probably on this very forum, that America wouldn't control the outbreak well specifically because we'd never agree to any sort of lockdown or mandates. Boy, was I wrong. I no longer think any significant group of Americans will revolt even if all that happens.
After all, the lefties would just loot Target stores and smash the windows at Starbucks while the righties would just condemn any of their own who stand up, chastising them "but we're better than that" and claim "we must work within the system".
We've already seen that bringing your displeasure directly to the people who created this mess is icky, "un-American" domestic terrorism.
Revolt will never happen. There's no fight in us. We'll keep on walking to our shitty totalitarian future like every other country that's been taken over by commies.
My calculus on this idea has changed a lot over the last 10 years.... There are certain things that I would proudly stand and defend at all costs, but that list of things is a lot shorter and with specific caveats, now that I've got kids and the potential of a very bright and comfortable future. More succinctly, you could say that my line in the sand has moved as I've gotten older. Once my kids are old enough to stand up for themselves and I have fewer liabilities, then I suppose that line would move again - likely back toward where it used to be.
The reality is that we might be very close to some extraordinarily difficult times, but when you take a look around.... most of us here are still more comfortable and better off than 95% of the human population. I think we've all but lost the idea of American Exceptionalism, so it'll take a lot of awful experiences to push most people across the line that demands action.
This goes back to the old axiom that I've always considered was about the fall of Rome.... but nowadays, we all look like Romans.
88040
hollohas
10-23-2021, 09:04
You're absolutely right honeybadger. I'm in the same boat. I've given my children a VERY comfortable life...so far. But as you say, we're in the 'weak men create hard times' phase. And I'm concerned that although currently my 3 children are better off than most of the world, the country is working awfully hard to ruin their future. I truly believe that we're nearing the point that the strong men left are going to have to make some significant sacrifices in order to give our children the future they deserve.
It's nice to think we can wait until they are grown adults before we can move those lines again. But sacrificing is a young man's game. By the time our kids are adults, they may need to stand on that line and they may need us to back them up by caring for their kids.
The future is uncertain and I definitely don't want to shake the boat either. Right now I'm trying to shore up necessities and financials as much as possible. But I think it's pretty obvious, my optimism for the future of our country is waning fast.
HoneyBadger
10-23-2021, 10:17
You're absolutely right honeybadger. I'm in the same boat. I've given my children a VERY comfortable life...so far. But as you say, we're in the 'weak men create hard times' phase. And I'm concerned that although currently my 3 children are better off than most of the world, the country is working awfully hard to ruin their future. I truly believe that we're nearing the point that the strong men left are going to have to make some significant sacrifices in order to give our children the future they deserve.
It's nice to think we can wait until they are grown adults before we can move those lines again. But sacrificing is a young man's game. By the time our kids are adults, they may need to stand on that line and they may need us to back them up by caring for their kids.
The future is uncertain and I definitely don't want to shake the boat either. Right now I'm trying to shore up necessities and financials as much as possible. But I think it's pretty obvious, my optimism for the future of our country is waning fast.
TL;DR: Being rich is the best way to ensure a good future. Having a lot of dollars does not necessarily mean you are rich.
I think the best way to secure a good future, even in the dark times, is to be financially in the top 5%. Notice how things like gas prices and availability of toilet paper or construction parts doesn't really affect the top 5% of wealthy people? In total collapse or hyperinflation type of situation "finances" becomes ambiguous because things like food, water, and shelter, and other commodities hold the real value.... but I have a hard time seeing our nuclear capable, most powerful nation in the world falling to that sort of dystopian disarray (and even then, the wealthy always have the most capability to shift their wealth around to protect it - they aren't bothered about petty things like buying food and toilet paper). I would expect a mostly peaceful transition to a more autocratic government if things got that bad.
So if like me, you believe of total collapse of American government and society is quite unlikely, how does one best ensure they will retain their financial power through the changes? Work your butt off to ensure that whatever you are invested in gains value faster than anything else. Is PVC pipe suddenly more expensive to produce than it was a year ago? No, not really. What we are seeing is that the price has gone up on things like PVC, Beef, Chicken, Gas, new cars, etc..... because your dollars are worth less. Say it again: worthless.
What do you believe will be the best store of value for the next month? Year? 10 years? If you foolishly believe that it'll be the US dollar, then you're about to be very poor and frustrated.
Housing in most markets is a good store of value, but not all markets are equal. A single family home in a small farmtown in CA that we lived in has steadily gone up in price by about $40k/yr since 2014. A single family home in a nice part of Colorado Springs has gone up about $30k/yr since 2013. A single family home in a nice part of Montgomery AL has only increased about $5k/yr since 2017, which considering the cost of inflation is actually losing value against the USD. Invest wisely.
Is the stock market a good hedge against a weak dollar? Only if you are extremely lucky, or have a talent for picking the top 10 stocks and actively managing your accounts. Even though you may cry out "But HoneyBadger! The S&P 500 has grown 86% over the past year and a half!! That's a great number!!!" the reality is that those numbers are steeply inflated. Do you really believe that the US economy at this moment is nearly twice as strong as it was 18 months ago? Bahahahahaha that's ridiculous! I would contend that if your stock market investments aren't doubling each year, they're not doing much of anything. Pick a big company from the Dow Jones or S&P500. GE, Boeing, McDonalds, Honeywell, Caterpillar, Walmart, Apple, etc. Take a look for yourself at their stock returns. Do you really think Apple has grown 200% in the last 2 years? What new products have they released? Where is that 200% growth in value coming from? Do you see now why I think the average American needs to recalibrate their numbers that they equate with stock market success? Now look at a company that is ACTUALLY growing like crazy: Tesla. Do I believe that they have increased their value 10x over the last 2 years? No. But of all the companies I just listed, Tesla is the only one that is for certain innovating, growing, and increasing their value. They are increasing their production numbers on an almost exponential scale, opening huge new factories across the globe, hiring new workers like crazy. If your stocks aren't growing at a rate that is remotely close to Tesla stock (TSLA), then I would contend that your stocks are not a good store of value.
So then, what is a good store of value? Certain things will always be worth a lot to the right audience: certain properties, classic cars, unique collectables, etc. But are those practical for the average American? Not really. Diversifying your investments is always a good idea so your eggs aren't all in one basket. Diversification limits risk by limiting extreme performance. For this reason, I have chosen to retain some property as a portion of my strategy because people will always need a place to live. I've also maintained some very aggressive mutual funds that focus on technological innovation (ARK funds... which have not performed well over the past 9 months). I also have traditional retirement-style accounts with various tax advantages. The final piece in my strategy to increase my buying power is cryptocurrency. Some of you probably don't like cryptocurrency, likely because you don't understand it. Here's why I like cryptocurrency, specifically Bitcoin:
Anyone can buy, trade, and sell Bitcoin. Anyone. There is no cost of entry. You don't need to be able to front a down payment for a property or buy rare artwork or a classic car with cash. Anyone with a single US Dollar and access to the internet can open an account on a crypto exchange like Gemini or Coinbase and begin trading their dollar for crypto. If you want to be extra secure, then you can buy a hardware or software "wallet" for $80-300 and hold your own crypto keys securely.
Government regulation, taxes, FCC rules, etc are easy for wealthy politicians to skirt around. Hell just last week I saw an article that the president of the federal reserve bank of Dallas was conducting market trades before, during, and after changing Fed Reserve policy. Consequences? He stepped down from the board president position and the rest of the fed reserve board members were warned not to engage in insider trading. Seriously? If you or I did that, we'd be in jail! Fortunately, Crypto trading (if done wisely) is nearly impossible to track and gives preferential treatment to no one. No politician gets a different set of rules or laws for crypto trading. Crypto is infinitely fair.
What else do I like about Bitcoin? It's perfectly scarce, unlike the USD, which the fed can just print more of to fund the next ridiculous $3.5T infrastructure bill. Any fiat currency can inflate. Bitcoin cannot. There is a finite amount of Bitcoin that can ever be created or "mined". This also means that as more investors see the light and decide to invest in their own future with Bitcoin, the supply and demand curve will simply follow the math. (See Stock to Flow chart: https://stats.buybitcoinworldwide.com/stock-to-flow/ )
Best thing about Bitcoin? It's 100% free to learn about and there are no secrets. Head over to https://www.ledger.com/academy and start getting smart.
I'm not advertising for either of the links above... they are just free resources.
Full disclosure: I am NOT a financial advisor. Don't construe this post as financial advice. Always understand what you choose to invest in and do your own research. I thought that having 10% of my net worth invested in Bitcoin and Ether seemed like a smart way to balance the perceived risks. That was a 2 years ago. Now my crypto holdings are about 60% of my net worth. I'm not saying this to brag or sound like a pompous ass; Just stating the fact that Bitcoin and Ether (even through the ups and downs of the economy, China banning all crypto, etc) have still outpaced all my other investments by a significant amount. They have been a good store of value for me and improved the future potential for myself and my family.
What is the best store of value for your money? How will you protect your wealth from the insidious tax of inflation? How will you build the best future for yourself and your loved ones?
Crypto is highly volatile and a huge unanticipated risk is crypto theft, especially for people who are not tech savvy. I agree with a lot of your points but I don't necessarily advocate for early adoption for non-tech people, as the potential for massive loss is just as likely as significant gain. Don't invest things into crypto that you can't afford to lose. Wallets get stolen frequently and there is nothing that can be done after that point, it is irrevocably gone, forever.
To give an example, I know of someone that tried to buy XRF. They asked their bank to wire $6,000 so they could buy some, the bank screwed up the wire transfer and wired $60,000 that purchased XRF. [ETA: while only withdrawing $6,000 from the customer. Big f-up by the bank]. They (customers) contacted the bank, notified the bank of the error, tried to figure out how to reverse the wire, tried to figure out how to fix the bank's error, bank ultimately called police and threatened them if it wasn't returned under 24 hours.
Stressed out, they found a reputable customer support number online for XRF, a kind gentlemen helped them solve their transfer problems.
EXCEPT, XRF doesn't have customer support, someone stole all of it and now the bank has been pressing felony charges against them as well as a civil case. I have been trying to assist where I can but it's a fun, fun clusterfuck.
Lots of major exchanges have also been hacked and had all wallets stolen. I'm not a big fan of trusting the exchanges, myself. But if you personally store it, there's the risk of you irrevocably losing it too.
Last note on crypto:
Anything based on current encryption and work factor techniques has a shelf life. Bitcoin will not be forever. It's shelf life is under 10 years, very possibly under 5. If you want to beat the final market crash, make sure to keep on top of quantum computer news. In under a decade, there will by systems that can easily crack into any wallet and steal the contents. You want to watch the news and the second they become truly accessible to places like China, Russia, or North Korea, or in any way, commercially, you want to GTFO. It may even become available in under five years. Note that China especially already has robust quantum computing, it's just such a finite resource right now and of low enough qbits that it's utility wouldn't be wasted on something like bitcoin (even for a yuge wallet). That will be changing...
HoneyBadger
10-23-2021, 11:42
Again: Do your research and understand what you are investing in.
FWIW, major exchanges like Coinbase and Gemini are insured against theft, hacking, or fraudulent transfers. Cash sitting in your Gemini or Coinbase accounts is insured by the FDIC.
I have yet to see substantial recent evidence of wallet theft or hacking. There are MANY cases of user error, but not many cases of legitimate theft or hacking. Recent advancements in crypto protocols have made digital attacks even less effective.
For the record, I wouldn't advocate anyone invest in any crypto besides BTC or ETH. There are thousands of garbage cryptos out there now just trying to ride the hype train (like DOGE), but BTC will forever be the standard against which all others are measured.
ETA: Of course technological developments will change the landscape. This is why I stated: "What do you believe will be the best store of value for the next month? Year? 10 years?" Constant evaluation of what holds value is critical for maintaining your wealth.
kidicarus13
10-23-2021, 14:37
Crypto trading (if done wisely)
?
Great-Kazoo
10-23-2021, 20:08
Again: Do your research and understand what you are investing in.
FWIW, major exchanges like Coinbase and Gemini are insured against theft, hacking, or fraudulent transfers. Cash sitting in your Gemini or Coinbase accounts is insured by the FDIC.
I have yet to see substantial recent evidence of wallet theft or hacking. There are MANY cases of user error, but not many cases of legitimate theft or hacking. Recent advancements in crypto protocols have made digital attacks even less effective.
For the record, I wouldn't advocate anyone invest in any crypto besides BTC or ETH. There are thousands of garbage cryptos out there now just trying to ride the hype train (like DOGE), but BTC will forever be the standard against which all others are measured.
ETA: Of course technological developments will change the landscape. This is why I stated: "What do you believe will be the best store of value for the next month? Year? 10 years?" Constant evaluation of what holds value is critical for maintaining your wealth.
Cash & precious metals, including brass, copper & lead. ESPECIALLY when it's now hovering around $1. per +. That should hold us till we pass on, be it tomorrow, or 10 yrs from now.
If i can't put my hands on it. I'm not dealing with it, especially something electronic. One that can be shut down, or hacked . Don't say it can't, anything electronic, from your cell ph account, to national security, is just a few keystrokes away from being hacked. .
As for wealth. A roof over our heads and food on the table, is real wealth, especially with no mortgage over your head. . Same for debt, carrying none is very nice, if one can. Thankfully we can and do.
Regarding, taking care of the kids, well she's just shy of 40 and been self sufficient for 20 yrs. Could not imaging having school age kids, in todays society. You folks have a tough road ahead of you.
My calculus on this idea has changed a lot over the last 10 years.... There are certain things that I would proudly stand and defend at all costs, but that list of things is a lot shorter and with specific caveats, now that I've got kids and the potential of a very bright and comfortable future. More succinctly, you could say that my line in the sand has moved as I've gotten older. Once my kids are old enough to stand up for themselves and I have fewer liabilities, then I suppose that line would move again - likely back toward where it used to be.
The reality is that we might be very close to some extraordinarily difficult times, but when you take a look around.... most of us here are still more comfortable and better off than 95% of the human population. I think we've all but lost the idea of American Exceptionalism, so it'll take a lot of awful experiences to push most people across the line that demands action.
This goes back to the old axiom that I've always considered was about the fall of Rome.... but nowadays, we all look like Romans.
88040
I want to steal that image and claim it as my own, but the good penmanship would tip people off
HoneyBadger
10-24-2021, 05:29
I want to steal that image and claim it as my own, but the good penmanship would tip people off
hahaha I literally just scribbled it on a notepad as I was typing the post. I tried to type it out, but it didn't have the same effect of showing the "cycle"
Vic Tory
10-24-2021, 09:44
?
That was great!
Vic Tory
10-24-2021, 09:46
Being prepared for shortages:
Don’t fret that you're not like the Mormons, who are compelled to have a year’s supply of food and water in their homes. Do what YOU can do.
- Start with 3 days of inventory
- Then stock-up 3 weeks’ worth of supplies
- Then try to have 3 months supply on hand
- Once you have 3 months of inventory for your immediate family, you can focus more on how you’ll help your friends and neighbors. Most of them don’t have enough in their pantries to last 3 days without freaking-out. (Think about how frequently they must go the the grocery store….)
And remember, your ultimate hope is in Jesus Christ — not in your “beans, bullets and band-aids."
Great-Kazoo
10-24-2021, 17:59
Being prepared for shortages:
Don’t fret that you're not like the Mormons, who are compelled to have a year’s supply of food and water in their homes. Do what YOU can do.
- Start with 3 days of inventory
- Then stock-up 3 weeks’ worth of supplies
- Then try to have 3 months supply on hand
- Once you have 3 months of inventory for your immediate family, you can focus more on how you’ll help your friends and neighbors. Most of them don’t have enough in their pantries to last 3 days without freaking-out. (Think about how frequently they must go the the grocery store….)
And remember, your ultimate hope is in Jesus Christ — not in your “beans, bullets and band-aids."
Without getting in to the spiritual side of things. IMO, my neighbors & neighborhood, are on their own. One can only talk and make suggestions so often, before you're done.
One dependent on a neighbor, the second time, becomes dependent every time.
I'm looking at defensive positions from my neighbors. Does that make me a bad person? [Coffee]
buffalobo
10-24-2021, 21:21
I'm looking at defensive positions from my neighbors. Does that make me a bad person? [Coffee]
Depends, how long you been in that neighborhood? Defense of position is important. [Peep]
If my neighbors only knew.[Sniper][Walk][Recon][Ninja][Sofa]
Great-Kazoo
10-24-2021, 22:07
I'm looking at defensive positions from my neighbors. Does that make me a bad person? [Coffee]
Closest neighbor is 75-80 yds from us. I'd just as soon prefer to level any, and every, obstruction within 1k yards. Hypothetically, of course.
Vic Tory
10-25-2021, 15:15
... IMO, my neighbors & neighborhood, are on their own. One can only talk and make suggestions so often, before you're done. Understood. (Been there. Done that. Bought the T-shirt!)
Moved here 6 years ago. My closest neighbor (100 yds) was the first to greet us. [Welcom]
"You got a nice place here. Be sure to have your guns secured."
"Hey, Honey! We're gonna fit right in!" [Wink][rockon][Wink]
I'm looking at defensive positions from my neighbors. Does that make me a bad person?
Depends, how long you been in that neighborhood? Defense of position is important.
Always good to prepare for contingencies! [Sniper][Peep] Our defenses are organized. [Jeep]
Remember: If SHTF, you have to sleep sometime. The magic number for 24/7 watch is 5 people. Small communities are stronger than small families.
Also (not applicable to SHTF) we will be experiencing more and more gas shortages as time goes on. Don't run to empty - and it's bad on fuel pumps to do that anyway. Possibly consider getting bigger tanks as well, a nice hedge against the retardation we are and will be dealing with.
Example: O.B.S. Fords can mount a Spectre F26D (38 gallon) in the rear to replace the stock 19 with nearly no modifications. They can sometimes mount a 32 gallon poly tank in the midship from a super duty with a lot of modifications. Total capacity: 70 gallons off of "stock" tank locations. That is some impressive range. Other combinations possible for most Chevy and Dodge trucks, new stuff though, I don't have a clue on because I don't touch new, probably SOL anyway.
Big issue out here at the ports is the lack of intermodal chassis to move the containers.
Would it come as a surprise that most of the containers and intermodal chassis are made in Chi-na?
https://www.freightwaves.com/news/how-three-chinese-companies-cornered-global-container-production
Remember: If SHTF, you have to sleep sometime. The magic number for 24/7 watch is 5 people. Small communities are stronger than small families.
Also (not applicable to SHTF) we will be experiencing more and more gas shortages as time goes on. Don't run to empty - and it's bad on fuel pumps to do that anyway. Possibly consider getting bigger tanks as well, a nice hedge against the retardation we are and will be dealing with.
Example: O.B.S. Fords can mount a Spectre F26D (38 gallon) in the rear to replace the stock 19 with nearly no modifications. They can sometimes mount a 32 gallon poly tank in the midship from a super duty with a lot of modifications. Total capacity: 70 gallons off of "stock" tank locations. That is some impressive range. Other combinations possible for most Chevy and Dodge trucks, new stuff though, I don't have a clue on because I don't touch new, probably SOL anyway.
My rolling CPU 2020 RAM diesel CCLB was optioned with a 50 gallon tank. RAM only offers it for crew cab long bed. Titan and S&B have aftermarket replacement tanks for other models.
OtterbatHellcat
10-26-2021, 01:16
I helped a neighbor with some ammo last year because she couldn't find any for some newly acquired firearms. I took over some 223 and 9. She said thanks and planned to head to the range to practice. WTF? I'm giving this to you for defense and not to piss away at a range, and if you end up not needing it I would like it back when you obtain your own shit. To this day I've still not had the empty tote bin returned.
That was the last time I'm giving any of my supplies to anyone.
If you haven't been planned ahead for stuff like this, you're probably hosed....... and what you do have will most likely be taken from you as well if the situation gets that bad. imo.
I am definitely sitting in my current ammo stash. It ain't much, but it's an appropriate starter pack for me. A friend's cousin knows that I have plenty of 45, and keeps asking for some. No, I'm not giving you a box of JHPs just so you can go mag dump a dirt hill.
I generally try to keep fuel in the cars, along with several cans of ethanol free stuff laying around for the genset and such. I did roll into a station the other day with 0 miles to E on the dash because I wanted to maximize savings (it was $2.83 a gallon)
HoneyBadger
10-26-2021, 07:10
Honestly, canning is looking better and better. Great way to have good and healthy food throughout the year. Prices and availability on produce is sketchy is some places and if there’s a major problem with gas supply, you can expect those grocery shelves to be empty because there won’t be a way to harvest the produce and get it to a store. You can probably live on expensive freeze-dried mountain house meals for a long time if you had to, but canning isn’t very complicated and will save you a HUGE amount of money.
Great-Kazoo
10-26-2021, 08:20
Honestly, canning is looking better and better. Great way to have good and healthy food throughout the year. Prices and availability on produce is sketchy is some places and if there’s a major problem with gas supply, you can expect those grocery shelves to be empty because there won’t be a way to harvest the produce and get it to a store. You can probably live on expensive freeze-dried mountain house meals for a long time if you had to, but canning isn’t very complicated and will save you a HUGE amount of money.
https://providentliving.churchofjesuschrist.org/food-storage?lang=eng
https://www.azurestandard.com/
The next best thing, if available in your area. The farmers market.
Vic Tory
10-26-2021, 16:17
If you haven't been planned ahead for stuff like this, you're probably hosed.
I am *astounded* at how many people are ONLY NOW looking into making preparations…! Like the 1970’s bumper sticker used to read, “LOPOYPDNCAEOMP."
-
-
-
-
Lack of planning on your part does not constitute an emergency on my part.
Just be happy their looking to prep after the signs they've seen. Many are still clueless
I helped a neighbor with some ammo last year because she couldn't find any for some newly acquired firearms. I took over some 223 and 9. She said thanks and planned to head to the range to practice. WTF? I'm giving this to you for defense and not to piss away at a range, and if you end up not needing it I would like it back when you obtain your own shit. To this day I've still not had the empty tote bin returned.
That was the last time I'm giving any of my supplies to anyone.
If you haven't been planned ahead for stuff like this, you're probably hosed....... and what you do have will most likely be taken from you as well if the situation gets that bad. imo.
Good thing you didn't lend your chainsaw.
Vic Tory
10-26-2021, 19:28
Just be happy their looking to prep after the signs they've seen. Many are still clueless
Good point.
OtterbatHellcat
10-26-2021, 23:30
I think I should rephrase "you're likely to have your stuff taken from you".... I wasn't referring to us here, we're armed and have had training. I meant folks that have done nothing other than buying a hand gun and one box of ammo, and have no idea how to use it. Those folks are hosed for sure.
It's also fair to say that I don't have the most ideal set up on the planet, but I do have enough of most stuff if used sparingly, to probably last two years. Gasoline excluded, I did have a plan for that at one time....never followed through on it though. Wife knows how to can, her Mom was full of little tricks for different foods and taught her all that....but she never got all the supplies to get moving on it, and proper storage at optimal temperatures can be an issue for anything if you're restricted in usable space dedicated for that.
Vic Tory
10-27-2021, 13:55
If SHTF, you have to sleep sometime. The magic number for 24/7 watch is 5 people. Small communities are stronger than small families.
YMMV. Adjust for the size and layout of your property. We've determined our minimum is twice that.
Also (not applicable to SHTF) we will be experiencing more and more gas shortages as time goes on. Don't run to empty - and it's bad on fuel pumps to do that anyway. Possibly consider getting bigger tanks as well, a nice hedge against the retardation we are and will be dealing with.
Filling my 36 gal tank is a challenge ... because the local stations cut-off the flow at $75 to $125. So it's prudent to NOT get below half a tank.
Vic Tory
10-27-2021, 14:49
Regarding inventory shortages: I checked ...
... Augason Farms
... Valley Food Storage
... Mountain House
... Legacy Food Storage
... ReadyWise Food Storage
ReadyWise seems to be the sole one with substantial inventory right now. But if the trend I've been seeing with the others continues ... you'd better hurry.
hollohas
10-27-2021, 18:18
Carl's Jr today...
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20211028/7bcc78ff58b176f86777b68a4376b5b1.jpg
hollohas
11-03-2021, 05:55
Two drive-thru's I went to over the last week to grab lunch we're out of various sizes of cups.
StagLefty
11-03-2021, 07:24
Walmart by me hasn't had a propane delivery for a couple of weeks. Went in to get an exchange nada !!!
Two drive-thru's I went to over the last week to grab lunch we're out of various sizes of cups.
My brother owns a coffee shop. Cup shortage is real.
Hell, I was in TX a while back and Bucee's didn't have paper soda cups. If Bucee's can't get 'em, there is a problem.
Delfuego
11-03-2021, 08:52
Fortunately Chick-fil-A is not dealing with the same shortage as Carls Jr.
They actually have a great new deal going.
88230
hollohas
11-03-2021, 09:13
Fortunately Chick-fil-A is not dealing with the same shortage as Carls Jr.
They actually have a great new deal going.
88230You just have to wait in line until Monday...
They aren't open Sundays...
Fortunately Chick-fil-A is not dealing with the same shortage as Carls Jr.
They actually have a great new deal going.
88230
funkymonkey1111
11-03-2021, 10:23
They aren't open Sundays...
you're pretty good at the sarcasm, aren't you?
They aren't open Sundays...
That?s the best day to go because the drive through line is really short.
Chick Fil-a is open on Sunday, in one location
I live under a rock, always seems like I'm in the "big town" on a Sunday and can't get the goods. So it's more bitterness. :P
hollohas
11-03-2021, 12:57
Chicken Fil-a is open on Sunday, in one locationAirport?
Airport?
Pigskin arena. I believe Atlanta
Pigskin arena. I believe Atlanta
Nope. When they announced that location in the football stadium I assumed it was going to be open on game day. Turns out that one is still closed on Sunday.
I guess they put it in for the occasional Monday night game or whatever.
https://www.chick-fil-a.com/locations/ga/mercedes-benz-stadium-osl
Nope. When they announced that location in the football stadium I assumed it was going to be open on game day. Turns out that one is still closed on Sunday.
I guess they put it in for the occasional Monday night game or whatever.
https://www.chick-fil-a.com/locations/ga/mercedes-benz-stadium-osl
Hmmm
I could've sworn I read something at some point about them being open there. Oh well.
I don't know if anyone follows the ag markets but things are getting rough there too. While commodity prices are high right now, all the inputs are way up. Fuel as you all know is up alot (this time of year we burn roughly 600-1000 gallons a day.
Seed costs are way up. Fertilizer has doubled and in some cases tripled. There is rumblings from fert reps of nitrogen hitting $1 a pound in our near future. (To put in perspective it was $0.15 -$0.20 a pound a little over a year ago. Chemicals such as glyphosate is up as well.
Supply on everything is short. Seed, fertilizer and chemicals. Definitely will be shortages this coming year.
Parts like every other industry are hard to find. With several JD plants on strike still. Simple oem parts are getting scarce for certain things.
I don't know if anyone follows the ag markets but things are getting rough there too. While commodity prices are high right now, all the inputs are way up. Fuel as you all know is up alot (this time of year we burn roughly 600-1000 gallons a day.
Seed costs are way up. Fertilizer has doubled and in some cases tripled. There is rumblings from fert reps of nitrogen hitting $1 a pound in our near future. (To put in perspective it was $0.15 -$0.20 a pound a little over a year ago. Chemicals such as glyphosate is up as well.
Supply on everything is short. Seed, fertilizer and chemicals. Definitely will be shortages this coming year.
Parts like every other industry are hard to find. With several JD plants on strike still. Simple oem parts are getting scarce for certain things.
Glyphosate doubled and distributors claiming orders put in last Jan still not filled. Now hearing pyrethroids will be very short.
Water will likely be a huge issue next season as well with La Nina forecast and storage depleted this year. This even with -+ 20% of ground held out locally this year. Interesting times...
I worked this week at a subsidiary company distribution facility for the world's largest electrolytic capacitor manufacturer.
The struggle is real. Contact there said they have to pay out the ass to fly product and raw materials in. They're running 2 light crew shifts as opposed to 24x7 previsouly.
Vic Tory
11-04-2021, 20:25
I closed my business bank account last month.
:(
My son congratulated me on being retired. I told him,
"This is weird. I didn't choose to retire. I WAS retired by the government."
[Dunno]
Fuel shortage has started. Nothing in the supply chains for some states.
encorehunter
11-06-2021, 06:17
Fish filets and onion rings. The brand we normally use hasn't been available for a couple weeks.
beast556
11-06-2021, 17:42
Went to get some otc meds today from wally world and the medicine shelves were looking pretty picked over with lots of stuff out of stock. Also the stuff that I usually pay 5$ for was 6.30$ today and the other one is usually 1.20$ and was 2.60$.
Cheetos still in stock. Its all good.
hollohas
11-07-2021, 07:46
China is worried about major shortages too, I think because of some of the same ag supply issues. If China can't feed it's people, they will start some shit. They're telling their people to prepare for shortages.
Meanwhile in the US, we're told there aren't any shortages and even if there were, we should get used to it and consume less.
Pretty damn sad when China is more honest with it's people than the US is.
China is worried about major shortages too, I think because of some of the same ag supply issues. If China can't feed it's people, they will start some shit. They're telling their people to prepare for shortages.
Meanwhile in the US, we're told there aren't any shortages and even if there were, we should get used to it and consume less.
Pretty damn sad when China is more honest with it's people than the US is.
China threw a hissy fit with the Aussies and banned their coal imports. Chine burns coal for electricity in most places since their dams are built stupidly and with Chinese quality. For various political purposes china has shut down multiple domestic coal mines. Other countries coal is of lesser quality and they were all shut down with covid too. So it's less available and less efficient. No electricity, no factories producing parts.
As of this point they have brown outs and black outs in most regions and power plants are hand to mouth with their inventories
At this point it's a race to see which country gets fucked the least globally.
hollohas
11-07-2021, 13:55
Unfortunately, I don't think the US is going to be on the least f'ed list...
We're busy making sure women in the Army can paint their nails, have long hair and gay battleships get christened by trannies.
China is doing this....
https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1457408877188812800
Vic Tory
11-07-2021, 18:22
China is doing this....
https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1457408877188812800
"Ruh-roh!!!"
hollohas
11-20-2021, 10:33
My normal gas station by my house has been completely out of diesel for a few days.
Vic Tory
11-20-2021, 11:09
King Soopers, yesterday. I was surprised to see even more Out Of Stock sections on the shelves. The Deli was short on a number of its regular items.
The woman behind the counter said they were short on supply ... and staff.
I heard two women chatting in the grocery store this morning.
"They raise the prices this time of year?! Yes they do!"
They were standing by the russet potatoes.
I heard two women chatting in the grocery store this morning.
"They raise the prices this time of year?! Yes they do!"
They were standing by the russet potatoes.
I would blame Baily Guns but he moves to Okrahoma. [Peep]
tactical_2012
11-20-2021, 19:04
We finished our Christmas shopping for the kids this past week as I have nothing better to do since I have been recovering from a work related injury. I noticed all the toy sections at multiple stores were really thin. I worked at target right out of high school and our shelves then used to be full leading up to the week before Thanksgiving.
Michael Brown, whom I listen to on talk radio every now and again, says "what is the biggest hallmark of communism?"
I said to myself, "Papers, please."
He said, "empty shelves."
Communism always equals empty shelves.
Yeah, "Papers, please." reminds me more of fascism.
When there's no incentive to put in the effort to produce, there is likely no product. That includes all of the dependencies on suppliers.
Yeah, "Papers, please." reminds me more of fascism.
We're being asked to produce vaccination papers, to go grocery shopping.
We're being asked to produce vaccination papers, to go grocery shopping.
Based on dictates of individuals under the excuse of an "emergency".
At, and with, and backed by the full force of Government.
Papers, please.
Can you imagine the Gestapo infrastructure that must be in place before they demand, "Papers, please."
Great-Kazoo
11-20-2021, 21:22
We're being asked to produce vaccination papers, to go grocery shopping.
88435
If there?s a shortage of anything now, just wait until early next year.
If the whole vax mandate thing becomes a reality We could see unemployment numbers that rival those of the 1930?s.
We?ll have to get in line early to make sure we can get some free government cheese so we don?t starve.
hollohas
01-05-2022, 09:25
We got a gift card for Chili's that I used last night over at the Southwest Plaza location. I ordered curbside and when I pulled up there were literally only 3 cars in the lot. I asked the gal where everyone was and she said they only have 2 cooks and simply can't find any more, so they shutdown the dining room.
The Feds just announced 4.5M people quit their jobs in Nov. I think it was 4M that quit their jobs in Oct IIRC. These are all people who aren't on unemployed.
Where the hell is everyone going?
To sort of answer your question - if 4.5 mil quit - could be they are not going anywhere. Or - they can go any place they want. Some might decide to take a year off and do a part time retirement. And to semi-sort of answer your question - where would I have gone if things were just a bit different? - The hot & wet part of Texas. Now still sort of looking around just north of Colorado.
I drove to work on Monday and noticed that the expected traffic was 1/4 what I had expected. The lower than expected traffic I guess is that some companies gave Fri off for New Years while others gave Monday off.
The last time I went to a sit down place to eat (early Dec); there were only a handful of people there. Most of the traffic decided to order and take home approach.
And the funny answer to the question you asked "where in hell is everyone going"....sorry; if you were not notified, we are not authorized to tell you.
Its complicated. Many are simply jumping ship to get a raise elsewhere. Many are boomers who are just retiring. Some are going to stay at home parent while their spouse got a big raise for jumping ship.
There are plenty of cases where new hires are being paid equal to or more than long term employees, that will push the long term employees to look elsewhere real fast
During these times there are also a number of start ups from people who see a hole in the recently changed market.
tactical_2012
01-05-2022, 20:04
Went to Jimmy Johns in Castle Rock today and they were closed had a sign on the door that said temporary closed due to staffing. The Cost Cutters in Elizabeth is also closed as they have no employees. Buddy works for T-mobile and all the employees for the quit and the manager is sick so they had to close the T-mobile off Twenty Mile and Parker Rd
hollohas
01-05-2022, 20:19
Well, logically, they are going somewhere. But in reality it sure doesn't seem like they're going to work somewhere else. Literally everyone I talk to, every friend, every store, every restaurant, every customer, every vendor...NOBODY has enough employees. If people were jumping ship to work elsewhere, than elsewhere wouldn't be short on employees as well.
Maybe bradbn4 is right. I'm not in the need to know club. Here I am working my ass off while millions are living at Club Med or something.
hollohas
01-05-2022, 20:21
ALL of the staff in the Walgreens pharmacy by me quit a few months ago. That sucked.
Bailey Guns
01-05-2022, 20:24
Man... I feel like I'm living in a different world from what you guys are talking about. There is nothing like that going on around here in terms of shortages and closed businesses and stuff. That's just wild...
hollohas
01-05-2022, 20:27
Man... I feel like I'm living in a different world from what you guys are talking about. There is nothing like that going on around here in terms of shortages and closed businesses and stuff. That's just wild...Ready to come back?
Maybe the people who are quitting are just going home and dying from covid.
I like the phrase that I heard that referred to what is happening as ?a period of great resignation?.
I do wish I was in a better position in life right now because I?d love to participate.
hollohas
01-05-2022, 20:42
That's it Ray.
The unvaxed aren't allow to work, so they quit.
Then, because it's the winter of death for the unvaxed, they all die.
I think that's our answer.
And the poor bastards go out miserably because they have no chocolate ice cream to ease their suffering.
colorider
01-05-2022, 22:17
ALL of the staff in the Walgreens pharmacy by me quit a few months ago. That sucked.
The Walgreens pharmacy by me has gone to drive through service only. 1.5 - 2 hour wait to pick up prescriptions. It is also taking them several days to get them filled from the day it’s called or sent in. Unacceptable so I’ve moved all my prescriptions to another pharmacy.
Bailey Guns
01-06-2022, 07:50
Ready to come back?
I don't think so... I was just bitching the other day because I went to Walmart for groceries. Had yogurt on the list and I buy a particular type because it's very low-sugar. They were out. The cooler was fully stocked with a dozen different brands of the large containers of yogurt but not the one I wanted. I also heard someone talking about the price of milk somewhere (don't recall where I read this just recently) was $8.99 gallon. It's still between $3.29 and $3.99 here depending on what you want.
I'm not looking forward to the shortages and supply issues you guys are experiencing. If it's happening in the large metro areas I can't imagine it's gonna take long to filter into the rural areas. And there are far fewer options for finding things here.
Powdered sugar...Sam's, Costco, Mallwart, King Soopers...all out. [facepalm]
Vic Tory
01-06-2022, 21:04
At the King Soopers deli today we ordered some chicken tenders. The man raced all over the back area to find ... SOMETHING ... to package them with. He apologized and said, "None of our containers have been delivered for days."
Then he muttered about how too much stuff we need is made and sourced in China.... He's correct.
(He did managed to package our order. He stole some containers from the Bakery I think.)
hollohas
01-23-2022, 16:39
Ordered some pizza from Domino's online just now. Got a call from the store a minute later to inform me they were understaffed and are unable to fill orders today.
Where are all the workers? How can these businesses survive if they continually have limited or no service?
Where are all the workers? How can these businesses survive if they continually have limited or no service?
I think someone, somewhere is pulling the wool over our eyes.
Everywhere I go seems to be understaffed. Some places even post a warning on the front door telling you that the service could be crappy due to minimal staffing. A couple of times I?ve approached businesses only to find them closed with a sign saying they are only open a couple of days a week due to being short handed.
Then I see some headline touting how the unemployment rate is at an all time low and getting better every week?
What?s everyone doing? Making money on YouTube or TikTok or whatever it is the kids are doing these days?
kidicarus13
01-23-2022, 17:21
2022's version of the penny shortage.
How? Why? Wait, what?
Today at Sprouts the chicken section was almost empty.
Not good.
Great-Kazoo
01-23-2022, 18:28
I think someone, somewhere is pulling the wool over our eyes.
Everywhere I go seems to be understaffed. Some places even post a warning on the front door telling you that the service could be crappy due to minimal staffing. A couple of times I?ve approached businesses only to find them closed with a sign saying they are only open a couple of days a week due to being short handed.
Then I see some headline touting how the unemployment rate is at an all time low and getting better every week?
What?s everyone doing? Making money on YouTube or TikTok or whatever it is the kids are doing these days?
Part of the issue is people believe they're worth $15-20 per for any job, starting out. You should see some of the comments on other sites (NYT) when they do a "story" regarding inability of restaurants to find workers. The I DESERVE A LIVING WAGE, mob spends more time bitching about what they're not getting paid. Than actually working.
beast556
01-23-2022, 19:28
Sams club in ft fun was out of fresh chiken yesterday when we were there. Very little over stock.
As Jeremy siegel from wharton said
'This is too much money chasing too few goods'
Same goes with skilled and unskilled labor.
AS I said 3 years ago, our rate should be at 4 to 5%.....
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/fed-has-to-be-far-more-aggressivethan-the-street-thinks-says-academic-who-called-dow-20-000-this-is-too-much-money-chasing-too-few-goods-11642015246
Vic Tory
01-24-2022, 22:02
Part of the issue is people believe they're worth $15-20 per for any job, starting out. <snip> The I DESERVE A LIVING WAGE, mob spends more time bitching about what they're not getting paid. Than actually working.This.
We had dinner yesterday with friends. One lady, very empathetically, lamented the low pay for restaurant workers. She (who was a waitress many years ago) didn't know about TEFRA (1982).
Prior to TEFRA servers hardly reported their tip income at all ... and didn't pay taxes on that unreported income. Then the IRS determined a 15% average tip: Servers could either go with a flat 15% on their reported income ... or keep actual records to avoid over-paying.
A year ago the government COVID payments were not taxable. Now -- with the government payments supposedly ended -- why are all the workers staying away from work?
I'm perplexed....
Don't blame it on low wage workers who is getting paid 10% of what your greedy ass make.
Blame it on Federal reserves , and idiotic past 3 administration of treasury dept. [LOL]
BTW, I am looking not too labor intensive, less Karen (man-karen) catered $18-24 starting part time (20hr max) job near home.
I am tired of going to rec center 4-5 time per week and still stacking weight. Need a part time job.
Vic Tory
01-25-2022, 10:31
What a curious post. You insult me / us with your "greedy ass" slur.
Don't blame it on low wage workers who is getting paid 10% of what your greedy ass make.
Blame it on Federal reserves , and idiotic past 3 administration of treasury dept. [LOL]
Then you ask me / us to help you get a job where you're paid way MORE than $15/hour ... and you want to work only part time. I know men with four and five kids who make "only" what you're seeking to earn per hour. They work their tails off, and they're still putting away money for their kids' college funds.
BTW, I am looking not too labor intensive, less Karen (man-karen) catered $18-24 starting part time (20hr max) job near home.
I am tired of going to rec center 4-5 time per week and still stacking weight. Need a part time job.
But I'm willing to try and help you. (About 8% of what I do is helping people find jobs which fit their abilities and interests. The majority of what I do is help employers choose among Paul, Mary and Tom ... who is the best person to promote to ___ position of management.)
Here's a starter: Most employers hire based upon three things ... Education, Experience and References.
Shocker: The three WORST predictors of job success are ... Education, Experience and References.
The BEST predictors of job success are General Mental Ability (Not intelligence; how well does one "think on their feet.") Conscientiousness (Does the guy do what he says he'll do WHEN he says he'll do it?) and Honesty.
_______________
What are your outstanding abilities? Are you prompt getting to work each day, no matter the weather? Are you more (or less) honest than the average person?
funkymonkey1111
01-25-2022, 13:05
What a curious post. You insult me / us with your "greedy ass" slur.
Then you ask me / us to help you get a job where you're paid way MORE than $15/hour ... and you want to work only part time. I know men with four and five kids who make "only" what you're seeking to earn per hour. They work their tails off, and they're still putting away money for their kids' college funds.
But I'm willing to try and help you. (About 8% of what I do is helping people find jobs which fit their abilities and interests. The majority of what I do is help employers choose among Paul, Mary and Tom ... who is the best person to promote to ___ position of management.)
Here's a starter: Most employers hire based upon three things ... Education, Experience and References.
Shocker: The three WORST predictors of job success are ... Education, Experience and References.
The BEST predictors of job success are General Mental Ability (Not intelligence; how well does one "think on their feet.") Conscientiousness (Does the guy do what he says he'll do WHEN he says he'll do it?) and Honesty.
_______________
What are your outstanding abilities? Are you prompt getting to work each day, no matter the weather? Are you more (or less) honest than the average person?
i'm pretty sure he was being sarcastic
Great-Kazoo
01-25-2022, 22:19
i'm pretty sure he was being sarcastic
SARCASM, on this forum?? [LOL]
Vic Tory
01-26-2022, 13:09
SARCASM, on this forum?? [LOL]THAT ... I recognized as sarcastic.
Great-Kazoo
01-27-2022, 20:33
Distilled water is non-existent, anywhere down here. Forget on line prices 6 - 1 gal containers for $44 + ??
Distilled water is non-existent, anywhere down here. Forget on line prices 6 - 1 gal containers for $44 + ??
Time to buy a still.
You know, one of those fancy ones. For WATER
Great-Kazoo
01-27-2022, 20:49
Time to buy a still.
You know, one of those fancy ones. For WATER
Just received a basic one. Rumor has it someone i might know actually does have a diSTILLed water unit
What a curious post. You insult me / us with your "greedy ass" slur.
Then you ask me / us to help you get a job where you're paid way MORE than $15/hour ... and you want to work only part time. I know men with four and five kids who make "only" what you're seeking to earn per hour. They work their tails off, and they're still putting away money for their kids' college funds.
But I'm willing to try and help you. (About 8% of what I do is helping people find jobs which fit their abilities and interests. The majority of what I do is help employers choose among Paul, Mary and Tom ... who is the best person to promote to ___ position of management.)
Here's a starter: Most employers hire based upon three things ... Education, Experience and References.
Shocker: The three WORST predictors of job success are ... Education, Experience and References.
The BEST predictors of job success are General Mental Ability (Not intelligence; how well does one "think on their feet.") Conscientiousness (Does the guy do what he says he'll do WHEN he says he'll do it?) and Honesty.
_______________
What are your outstanding abilities? Are you prompt getting to work each day, no matter the weather? Are you more (or less) honest than the average person?
i'm pretty sure he was being sarcastic
Still good advice from vic. I don't care if someone has a career set. Anyone is replaceable including a guy who has 15%+ stake in huge cCorp.
Speaking of part time job.
I work at home, but I am looking for 2nd job (part time with little cal burining). I gained so much weight after being self employed+ knee surgeries .
I calculated that I need any 4hr/day job to burn energy content like Normal person. However (regardless of 15 or 85/hr), I do not need a severe labor heavy/intense job that I will end up having another joint surgeries.
Talking from a guy who goes to rec center 4-5x week.
$$ will be an extra bonus. :)
beast556
01-30-2022, 18:12
Went to go get my oil changed today. Wally world was out of 5-20 oil. They were also out of full synthetic 5-30 for my other vehicle. Guy said they are not getting any resupply they keep ordering but nothing shows up.
I had to go to 3rd-4th closest walmart to get Mobil 5w-40 about 2 mo back.
It is probably worse now.
https://www.ar-15.co/threads/42773-Post-a-picture-of-your-latest-purchase?p=2350739&viewfull=1#post2350739
hollohas
03-04-2022, 12:42
https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/russia-recommends-fertilizer-makers-halt-all-exports
Just hours after we reported that Russia effectively banned exports of fertilizers, moments ago Hungary - one of Europe's most grain rich nations - has circled the wagons and realizing which way the wind is blowing, just announced that it will banning all grain exports effective immediately, in a statement .
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/wheat%20futures%203.4.jpg?itok=GuRgFfwz
BushMasterBoy
03-04-2022, 14:25
If the Rus screw up the food supply of China, India, Pakistan, etc. there will be hell to pay by the Rus. Once the radionuclides get in the food supply physically, the food becomes poison. $10 billion price on the problem makers head would probably fix it.
hollohas
04-19-2022, 20:34
Uh oh.
https://www.cfindustries.com/newsroom/2022/union-pacific-shipping-restrictions
CF Industries: Union Pacific Curtails Fertilizer Shipments, Delaying Deliveries and Preventing New Rail Orders from Being Taken
Great-Kazoo
04-19-2022, 21:48
Well, that's not great
Not when you consider the current "pandemic" called bird flu / avian influenza, of chickens.
BushMasterBoy
04-20-2022, 21:59
Shortage of crop fertilizer and decreased crop yields, will probably affect third world nations that rely on the US for sustenance first. We won't starve here, but you can be sure prices will go through the roof. I usually gauge what the water supply in Colorado is going to be like, based on the amount of snow on Pikes Peak. It looks sparse. That tells me the snowpack is falling short.
I have been considering buying whole wheat and grinding it to make my own bread. Bread at the local Safeway has been at $5 a loaf. If I have to raise my own chickens, I am going to be completely pissed off.
Great-Kazoo
04-21-2022, 07:11
Shortage of crop fertilizer and decreased crop yields, will probably affect third world nations that rely on the US for sustenance first. We won't starve here, but you can be sure prices will go through the roof. I usually gauge what the water supply in Colorado is going to be like, based on the amount of snow on Pikes Peak. It looks sparse. That tells me the snowpack is falling short.
I have been considering buying whole wheat and grinding it to make my own bread. Bread at the local Safeway has been at $5 a loaf. If I have to raise my own chickens, I am going to be completely pissed off.
At the current (AZ) price of $2. a doz, good luck.
Great-Kazoo
04-25-2022, 07:34
Now you're cooking, or are you? The next shortage, and or price increase will be...................................Air Fryers
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/indonesia-worlds-top-cooking-oil-050215020.html
hollohas
06-09-2022, 11:52
Wonder if we'll see more of these. But who's buying premium these days?
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220609/a23bf775b9c9e4c3bcb2bd3fcabe2acc.jpg
Wonder if we'll see more of these. But who's buying premium these days?
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220609/a23bf775b9c9e4c3bcb2bd3fcabe2acc.jpg
I have to stock my truck with 87 at a minimum.
encorehunter
06-09-2022, 21:00
Now you're cooking, or are you? The next shortage, and or price increase will be...................................Air Fryers
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/indonesia-worlds-top-cooking-oil-050215020.html
Our cooking oil had doubled before this. I don't want to see the bill when I have to buy again.
hollohas
06-13-2022, 14:33
This shrinkflation is getting crazy.
This weekend I brought my son to get a starkiss popsicle thing at DQ. The popsicle stick was so short (less than an inch) he could hardly hold it. I figured it was a weird DQ thing.
Then, later this weekend my daughter was given a bombpop after her baseball game. That too had an unusably short stick. Then it dawned on me, shrinkflation. Cost are SO high, popsicle sticks have shrunk. Wow.
This shrinkflation is getting crazy.
This weekend I brought my son to get a starkiss popsicle thing at DQ. The popsicle stick was so short (less than an inch) he could hardly hold it. I figured it was a weird DQ thing.
Then, later this weekend my daughter was given a bombpop after her baseball game. That too had an unusably short stick. Then it dawned on me, shrinkflation. Cost are SO high, popsicle sticks have shrunk. Wow.
Well, with lumber prices being what they are would you be willing to pay $13 for those frozen goodies just to have a longer handle?
hollohas
06-13-2022, 21:46
Well, with lumber prices being what they are would you be willing to pay $13 for those frozen goodies just to have a longer handle?So true. I bought some lumber Sunday. Ouch.
But dang, when a 4 year old is only given an inch of popsicle stick, he ends up wearing a lot more popsicle on his hands than he would with a longer holding device.
But dang, when a 4 year old is only given an inch of popsicle stick, he ends up wearing a lot more popsicle on his hands than he would with a longer holding device.
Having raised two kids myself I can?t imagine having a three foot long stick would have kept my kids any cleaner. Messy little buggers.
Powered by vBulletin® Version 4.2.3 Copyright © 2025 vBulletin Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved.