View Full Version : Inflation? And then what?
Martinjmpr
11-05-2021, 17:23
My "formative years", that is, the years where I first became aware of the 'outside world' (let's say roughly the ages of maybe 12 - 17, so that would be roughly 1974 - 79) had LOTS of inflation. It was a big enough problem that I remember Gerald Ford having some kind of ad campaign called WIN: "Whip Inflation Now." I have no idea what that program was, I just remember hearing about it a lot. Newspapers had editorials and economists predicted doom and gloom in the 70's if inflation continued.
After that, we pretty much got used to not very much inflation in general retail prices (except for occasional spikes in fuel prices caused by conflicts or crises around the world.)
But from what I've seen recently, we are poised for double-digit inflation for the first time in at least 35 years, maybe longer. I'm betting some of you younger folks probably don't even remember inflation like that.
All those folks demanding $15/hr minimum wage are going to find their demands OBE: Overtaken By Events. Regardless of the "federal minimum wage" employers are going to have to start offering $15/hr minimum if they want to attract any employees at all.
Sad thing is, all those employees who were so happy that they're now earning $15 or even $20/hr are going to be scratching their heads and wondering where all that money went when they realize that the goods and services they rely on are also going up, and those costs are just going to gobble up that "extra" money and leave them with nothing to show but maybe a higher tax bill.
And of course, now the government wants to deal with inflation by throwing more money at people. Hmmm....prices are high, we give people more money so they can spend. What could possibly go wrong? [facepalm]
My question to the group: At what point does inflation start putting a damper on economic growth? As in, when do people have to spend all their $$ on NECCESSITIES so they start cutting back on luxuries like eating out, travel, recreation, etc?
Currently we're doing OK but I'm definitely feeling the pinch when I go to the grocery store or the gas station. More money spent on needs means less to save or spend on other things.
My inclination at this point is to cut back on my "discretionary" spending and try to ride out the storm. If others do the same, we might see prices start to drop, but if the Feds just start throwing money at anybody with a pulse, we'll see crazy inflation get even worse.
if asswipe presidents, treasury keep printing money with easy $$ from fed reserve, we will see much higher inflation.
Nixon to Biden. They are almost all same.
As a mid 30?s middle of the range conservative CO native that grew up in extreme rural CO. Here are my thoughts that carry as much merit as can be had on a forum.
My grandparents and then later my older aunts and uncles where able to purchase a home larger and ?nicer? than mine that was much newer at the time. I am pretty much buying 2 generations of starter home as my first and current home in the montview and Dayton area.
It was built in 52. They where able to buy this home on a single earner low level blue collar job while supporting 5 family members. They lived a comfortable life.
The people getting 15 dollars an hour right now to perform the tasks marked minimum wage will never be able to afford a home on the front range. And they haven?t been able to for decades.
There is a significant portion of the population that will never advance past entry level for what ever reason. The ones that can will.
The boomers have been very effective at making the most of the cards they where dealt to make sure they are sufficiently padded for the rest of their lives and if successful enough their children?s. A large portion of making sure this happens is politics and passing legislation as such. Which is fine but they can?t complain when the 3 generations alive younger than them are trying to get their slice the pie too including with legislation.
As government spends us more and more in debt, the concept of fake money, or inflation, takes hold.
The normal person, delivering goods and services is priced out of the market, as the market is people getting fake money from the government.
It's a lose, lose, proposition, that can only be solved by limiting government, and limiting government spending.
Great-Kazoo
11-05-2021, 19:39
Not sure about now. I can tell you credit card interest rate was 20%, VA home loan interest was 13% give or take a percentage point.
https://www.nytimes.com/1983/01/08/business/credit-card-rates-still-at-peak-level.html
We're talking Venezuela levels of inflation, Kazoo.
No trust in Government, no trust in money.
colorider
11-06-2021, 00:26
It’s a big shit sandwich and we all have to eat it.
Not sure about now. I can tell you credit card interest rate was 2o%, VA home loan interest was 13% give or take a percentage point.
https://www.nytimes.com/1983/01/08/business/credit-card-rates-still-at-peak-level.html
I remember 13% mortgage rates and lines for gasoline under Carter.
Bailey Guns
11-06-2021, 07:06
Yep...first house I bought in 1983 was with a VA loan at 12.95%. A typical car loan for someone with good credit was 17 to 19 percent. A passbook savings account was earning around 10%.
On Tues the lender locked in our rate on the new house in Ada at 2.247% for a 30 year VA loan. I feel very fortunate with the timing. I'm afraid loans like that will be a memory in a few short months.
HoneyBadger
11-06-2021, 11:13
Really good op-Ed by Thomas Sowell from 2012: http://archive.gosanangelo.com/opinion/thomas-sowell-inflation-is-the-most-insidious-invisible-tax-ep-438907590-355868741.html
See also:
88264
Although Ron Paul talks obvious stuff, many do not take him seriously. People wants something cheap and easy loan now. We will probably heading to direction similar to Greece (debt ratio) very soon.
Vic Tory
11-06-2021, 11:49
And of course, now the government wants to deal with inflation by throwing more money at people. Hmmm....prices are high, we give people more money so they can spend. What could possibly go wrong? [facepalm]
A BIG part of the problem is too many of the Millennial voters do not even know what inflation really is. Inflation is the creation (We used to say "printing".) of more fiat money [Latin for "let it be done." There's nothing "backing" fiat money but "the good faith and credit of the Federal Reserve."] by the Fed. Flooding the economy with more dollars "helps" only temporarily.
When wholesalers A, B, C, D through J realize they're being paid with dollars which are WORTH LESS than they were three months ago they (naturally) raise prices. Those wholesalers' customers -- the retailers and service industries -- (naturally) raise THEIR prices. The consumer / taxpayer takes it in the wallet.
Remember, CORPORATIONS DO NOT PAY TAXES. Their customers pay their taxes -- in the form of increased prices.
Where do you think the 2.2 TRILLION dollars of Covid relief (Trump administration) came from? The Fed electro-magically CREATED those dollars.
My question to the group: At what point does inflation start putting a damper on economic growth? As in, when do people have to spend all their $$ on NECESSITIES so they start cutting back on luxuries like eating out, travel, recreation, etc?
<Snip>
My inclination at this point is to cut back on my "discretionary" spending and try to ride out the storm. If others do the same, we might see prices start to drop, but if the Feds just start throwing money at anybody with a pulse, we'll see crazy inflation get even worse.
You answered your own question.
Because hundreds of thousands of American families are already reducing discretionary spending, economic growth is already being impacted. (Don't look at the Stock Markets to recognize this impact. Look at the prices of ... groceries, tires, home repairs, AMMO, etc..)
If your family isn't ready for *asinine* hyper-inflation, you'd better hurry and get ready.
• PRAY!!!
• Pay off your credit cards. Interest is financial DEATH.
• Stock up on Beans, Bullets and Band-Aids.
• Get to know your neighbors. In a crisis, if you haven't formed a group of people on whom you can depend, your neighbors are probably "it".
hollohas
11-06-2021, 12:12
Well. The so-called infrastructure bill passed thanks to some turncoats. And it's 1 point whatever trillion dollars "doesn't cost anything" so that gonna jack inflation even more. These dipshits actually think it will HELP the economy.
The constantly super low interest rates haven't helped this all either. As much as I hate paying interest on anything and don't want it to go up, money isn't free. When we act like it's free with crazy low or no interest, this sorta shit happens. Add unlimited gov spending on top of nearly interest free money to everyone, this was a long time coming.
I highly respect people/consumers during Nixon to reagan admin.
One of the fight against inflation is higher rate and Paul volker did a good job. Sadly the rate was very high.
I remember my family friend had 12% loan on the house.
I know this comment is not popular and we should be at around 4 to 6% rate at this time.
I
Civics hasn't been taught in public schools for quite some time. From what I understand, neither has 'Personal Finance' or similar subjects that teach one how to manage your own money after high school. Wouldn't surprise me that many of the younger voters have no concept of how our government is supposed to function. Also doesn't surprise me that many folks that just focus on making minimum monthly payments have any clue as to the long-term negative impact to our economy with this bottomless spending.
Circuits
11-07-2021, 02:50
A BIG part of the problem is too many of the Millennial voters do not even know what inflation really is. Inflation is the creation (We used to say "printing".) of more fiat money [Latin for "let it be done." There's nothing "backing" fiat money but "the good faith and credit of the Federal Reserve."] by the Fed. Flooding the economy with more dollars "helps" only temporarily.
Inflation, like interest, is a reflection of the time value of money. Money in hand now is worth more than the same amount of money in hand later, reflecting liquidity and opportunity cost.
If our money were on a precious metal standard, money now is still worth more than the same amount of money a year from now, even if it will still buy all the same things, because for a year you didn't have the money to buy those things, so couldn't buy the things or use them for the intervening year.
Delfuego
11-07-2021, 11:27
We're talking Venezuela levels of inflation,
The Venezuela hyperbole has gotta stop. This is a not-so-clever sound bite. The USA and Venezuela have zero things in common. Period.
Delfuego
11-07-2021, 12:06
Yep...first house I bought in 1983 was with a VA loan at 12.95%. A typical car loan for someone with good credit was 17 to 19 percent. A passbook savings account was earning around 10%.
On Tues the lender locked in our rate on the new house in Ada at 2.247% for a 30 year VA loan.
I am no economist and this is not financial advice :) This is just my perspective so take it with a grain or 2 of salt.
I believe this is the illusion. I think we are paying less interest on inflated prices. It makes us feel like we are getting a better deal. The Fed is printing imaginary money and loaning it for zero percent (or less) to banks and they loan it to people. US bonds often have a negative yield/return. They are flooding the market with cheap capital and they say it's good for everyone. Prices of property keep going up and wages simply don't. The middle class is disappearing and the USA seems to be slide into a 2nd world country with the "have" and the "have not". Remember the banks are still making extra money on the back-end too with CDS (credit default swaps) or whatever the have renamed them too after 2008.
Please take a look at the 2 loans below. One is a $300k home loan at with high interest, the other is a $600k home with low interest. I simply don't see much difference for the homeowner in the end. This encapsulates how I feel and what I see. Maybe I am way over simplifying things, but I have watched home prices here in CO double and triple and it seems like people are more house poor than ever before. I feel like everything is sold at a "discount" now. Nothing has a price, it's always some sort of a discount, coupon, introductory price, limited time special, member price, etc, etc.
I simple get the feeling that we are getting duped. It's like when car sales men write arbitrary numbers on paper and keep circling them and assuring you you are getting a great deal and they are loosing money on this.. The banks and lenders are making more money now than in the history of mankind, but somehow I'm getting 0% interest. What a deal!
I am off my soapbox. Feel free to flame me on my ignorance.
8829588296
Lets take a look at elasticity relative to income and demand
-The fastfood dollar menu is now about 1.50 to 2.50.
- dollar tree finally finally finally decide to sell items more than $1.
-store and genetic brand price is rising like crazy.
eom
Martinjmpr
11-08-2021, 09:05
The Venezuela hyperbole has gotta stop. This is a not-so-clever sound bite. The USA and Venezuela have zero things in common. Period.
Yeah the Venezuela comparisons make no sense. Same for those who want to compare inflation to what happened in Weimar Germany after WWI.
I don't see this as any kind of sinister plot, but just a "perfect storm" of different events all having a similar effect:
Think about where we were in mid 2020 when it seemed like large sectors of the economy (particularly in the service and entertainment industry) were on the verge of collapse due to COVID.
If you think about it, last year there were a lot of things that people typically spend money on - dining out, movies, sporting events, concerts, etc - that were not available to them. So that money was saved and often not spent on other things.
Travel - for much of 2020 people couldn't travel outside the US, and even travel IN the US was restricted, and often the things that people might travel to see were closed. So, again, that money wasn't spent and it was saved.
People unsure about the economy also pulled their spending back, not sure if they'd have a job or if the economy itself would collapse (as some predicted it might early on in the COVID days.)
COVID shutdowns causing manfacturing of key components causing inventories of available products to plunge.
And finally, the government pumped out money to people in the form of stimulus checks.
Simple supply and demand: More dollars (demand) chasing fewer goods (supply) = inflation.
In theory, at least, once people burn through that money that's burning holes in their pockets, demand will drop and supply will catch up which should slow inflation.
Unfortunately I see some people saying "we need moar stimulus checks!" which would be like trying to fight a raging fire by spraying gasoline on it.
Martinjmpr
11-08-2021, 09:20
The Real Estate one is interesting. I read SOTI (Somewhere On The Internet) that one of the things driving real estate prices up is the fact that there are lots of investors out there looking to invest their client's money, and since government bonds and other "safe" investments are generating zero or near-zero income, the only things that investors can make money on are the stock market and real estate.
So it's an inversion of the usual situation where real estate (especially commercial real estate) developers have to compete against each other for a limited amount of money available. In that situation - where there are more people who want to take in money than there are people wanting to invest money - the developers have to show the investor that their development is likely to be a money maker so they can get access to that money, and investors can pick and choose which developments they want to invest in to maximize their returns.
But in our current situation, it's just the opposite: There are more "investors" who want to invest their money than there are developers, so investors are just throwing money at anything that looks even remotely viable because there isn't anywhere else for investors to invest.
That's why, for example, you see so much commercial office and retail space being built even though you can drive around the metro area and see lots and lots of vacant office and retail space now.
Here's an example: River Pointe. That's the one at Santa Fe and Hampden where they redeveloped that whole area into a big shopping center with the Target, Costco, Buffalo Wild Wings, Sportsman's Warehouse, etc.
We lived in Englewood, just on the other side of Santa Fe, when they opened that shopping center around 2008 and 13 years later, there are store fronts that are vacant and have NEVER had any paying client. For 13 years! There are many other examples as well.)
Grant H.
11-08-2021, 09:50
Yeah the Venezuela comparisons make no sense. Same for those who want to compare inflation to what happened in Weimar Germany after WWI.
If you think about it, last year there were a lot of things that people typically spend money on - dining out, movies, sporting events, concerts, etc - that were not available to them. So that money was saved and often not spent on other things.
Travel - for much of 2020 people couldn't travel outside the US, and even travel IN the US was restricted, and often the things that people might travel to see were closed. So, again, that money wasn't spent and it was saved.
People unsure about the economy also pulled their spending back, not sure if they'd have a job or if the economy itself would collapse (as some predicted it might early on in the COVID days.)
And finally, the government pumped out money to people in the form of stimulus checks.
Simple supply and demand: More dollars (demand) chasing fewer goods (supply) = inflation.
Unfortunately I see some people saying "we need moar stimulus checks!" which would be like trying to fight a raging fire by spraying gasoline on it.
You are giving the majority of this country WAY too much credit assuming that people saved. Look around, everyone picked up a new hobby and bought pieces/parts/equipment for that. There are no used vehicles, and the price on used vehicles is through the roof.
A lot of people in this country were let go during 'rona, and were getting their normal unemployment PLUS an additional $46k-ish... ($600/wk from the Fed, and $300/wk from the State) Plus the "stimulus" checks.
Despite all this additional money, the USA is BILLIONS of dollars behind on rent. The numbers are hard to find, and likely being suppressed, but in July of 2020 there was ~$21 BILLION dollars of unpaid rent in the USA. Extrapolating that ~6 months to 18 months is pretty easy...
So now you have people making an extra $50k a year, NOT paying rent, and they still can't make their "back rent" payments now that the moratorium has ended. That money isn't sitting in the bank...
Idiots spent it on TV's, cars, new hobbies, blah blah blah. Tons of them lost it by getting suckered into the "meme stock" pump and dump of GME/AMC/Shit-Crypto/etc...
The vast majority of our countrymen don't understand financial responsibility, and live by making the minimum monthly payment on their rent/home, 2 cars, 4 tv's, all their food (credit cards), etc. Somewhere in the last 2-3 years, I saw a statistic that stated that less than 10% of the population of the USA could get their hands on 10k in cash within 72 hours, without having to take out a short term, high interest rate loan.
The Real Estate one is interesting. I read SOTI (Somewhere On The Internet) that one of the things driving real estate prices up is the fact that there are lots of investors out there looking to invest their client's money, and since government bonds and other "safe" investments are generating zero or near-zero income, the only things that investors can make money on are the stock market and real estate.
So it's an inversion of the usual situation where real estate (especially commercial real estate) developers have to compete against each other for a limited amount of money available. In that situation - where there are more people who want to take in money than there are people wanting to invest money - the developers have to show the investor that their development is likely to be a money maker so they can get access to that money, and investors can pick and choose which developments they want to invest in to maximize their returns.
But in our current situation, it's just the opposite: There are more "investors" who want to invest their money than there are developers, so investors are just throwing money at anything that looks even remotely viable because there isn't anywhere else for investors to invest.
That's why, for example, you see so much commercial office and retail space being built even though you can drive around the metro area and see lots and lots of vacant office and retail space now.
Here's an example: River Pointe. That's the one at Santa Fe and Hampden where they redeveloped that whole area into a big shopping center with the Target, Costco, Buffalo Wild Wings, Sportsman's Warehouse, etc.
We lived in Englewood, just on the other side of Santa Fe, when they opened that shopping center around 2008 and 13 years later, there are store fronts that are vacant and have NEVER had any paying client. For 13 years! There are many other examples as well.)
I agree that we are seeing investment into real estate from "not normal" sources.
Here in CO, Weed dealers have been buying real estate to "launder" their money since 2013.
Your investor theory makes perfect sense to me as well.
I've also seen the theory postulated that cash rich companies are parking cash in real estate to avoid any significant changes in the tax code by the Biden admin.
clodhopper
11-08-2021, 10:28
A BIG part of the problem is too many of the Millennial voters do not even know what inflation really is. Inflation is the creation (We used to say "printing".) of more fiat money [Latin for "let it be done." There's nothing "backing" fiat money but "the good faith and credit of the Federal Reserve."] by the Fed. Flooding the economy with more dollars "helps" only temporarily.
When wholesalers A, B, C, D through J realize they're being paid with dollars which are WORTH LESS than they were three months ago they (naturally) raise prices. Those wholesalers' customers -- the retailers and service industries -- (naturally) raise THEIR prices. The consumer / taxpayer takes it in the wallet.
Remember, CORPORATIONS DO NOT PAY TAXES. Their customers pay their taxes -- in the form of increased prices.
Where do you think the 2.2 TRILLION dollars of Covid relief (Trump administration) came from? The Fed electro-magically CREATED those dollars.
You answered your own question.
Because hundreds of thousands of American families are already reducing discretionary spending, economic growth is already being impacted. (Don't look at the Stock Markets to recognize this impact. Look at the prices of ... groceries, tires, home repairs, AMMO, etc..)
If your family isn't ready for *asinine* hyper-inflation, you'd better hurry and get ready.
? PRAY!!!
? Pay off your credit cards. Interest is financial DEATH.
? Stock up on Beans, Bullets and Band-Aids.
? Get to know your neighbors. In a crisis, if you haven't formed a group of people on whom you can depend, your neighbors are probably "it".
Inflation is Biden's plan to solve the supply chain problem.
BushMasterBoy
11-08-2021, 10:54
Precious metals. Gold & silver. It has been money for over 6,000 years.
^ very true, but those millennial are allocating to buttcoin and crip-to coin.
Grant H.
11-08-2021, 14:12
^ very true, but those millennial are allocating to buttcoin and crip-to coin.
I really don't understand how anyone can look at ANY crypto and think that it falls in the same category as PM.
But yeah, I've seen more and more people start to fall prey to that idea...
I really don't understand how anyone can look at ANY crypto and think that it falls in the same category as PM.
But yeah, I've seen more and more people start to fall prey to that idea...
Seems like Millennials are meme'ing, fomo'ing, and hedging it with crypto.
Crypto might have been fun and cool when it was about $1-3000. Now, it has been mainstreamed and some investors (incl majority of newb investors) are hedging the inflation with it. I agree and I am perfectly fine by
"missing out" on the crypto. I will just find something cheaper, better, and have higher return investment than cryptos. :D
Vic Tory
11-08-2021, 17:02
Delfuego, you just argued against yourself....
The Venezuela hyperbole has gotta stop. This is a not-so-clever sound bite. The USA and Venezuela have zero things in common. Period.
While I do not agree with you, it's your opinion. I was ready to leave it....
But your VERY NEXT POST...
I think we are paying less interest on inflated prices. It makes us feel like we are getting a better deal. The Fed is printing imaginary money and loaning it for zero percent (or less) to banks and they loan it to people. US bonds often have a negative yield/return. They are flooding the market with cheap capital and they say it's good for everyone. Prices of property keep going up and wages simply don't. The middle class is disappearing and the USA seems to be slide into a 2nd world country with the "have" and the "have not". Remember the banks are still making extra money on the back-end too with CDS (credit default swaps) or whatever the have renamed them too after 2008.
Maybe you don't realize it, but your second post is ... what happened in Venezuela.
[facepalm]
That country went from the 4th biggest economy in the world to ... insane hyperinflation and no Middle Class. The only people who prospered in that country were the Chavez people ... and now the Maduro people.
HoneyBadger
11-08-2021, 18:38
I really don't understand how anyone can look at ANY crypto and think that it falls in the same category as PM.
But yeah, I've seen more and more people start to fall prey to that idea...
Pretty much all crypto except Bitcoin and Ether are crap. BTC and ETH are the foundation that all other cryptos ride on. Bitcoin is actually better than gold as a store of wealth because it is PERFECTLY scarce. Gold takes time and effort and investment to mine and add to the world supply, and in theory there is a finite amount of gold on Earth, but we don’t know exactly how much that is. Bitcoin also takes resources to produce, but there is a known and cryptologically limited amount of Bitcoin. Once the supply runs low, no government or private entity can manipulate it in such a way as to devalue it. Nobody can simply “print” more Bitcoin. ETH is unique because it’s a framework for other goods and services to ride upon with a huge amount of possibility.
Remember that gold doesn’t have much intrinsic value… it’s only valuable because we say it is.
Grant H.
11-08-2021, 18:46
blah blah blah... Crypto fanboi isms removed...
Remember that gold doesn’t have much intrinsic value… it’s only valuable because we say it is.
Congratulations.
You literally just described why Crypto of ANY KIND is a farce as a wealth store...
PM is tangible, and has value in society. The current agreed upon value? Maybe not, but it is still valuable.
Crypto is neither of those things...
Delfuego
11-08-2021, 19:32
The Real Estate one is interesting. I read SOTI (Somewhere On The Internet) that one of the things driving real estate prices up is the fact that there are lots of investors out there looking to invest their client's money, and since government bonds and other "safe" investments are generating zero or near-zero income, the only things that investors can make money on are the stock market and real estate. I have been calling this one "Weaponized Real Estate".
Property often has more value and RIO empty than occupied in many cases, especially in big cities like NYC, Hong Kong, London, Etc. However in the good ol' USA, we don't give a shit about who owns it and the don't need any ties to the country to own property. That why gangsters, foreign politicians, oligarchs, futbol players, hedge funds, sovereign wealth funds, and anybody with big money owns pieces of the American dream. The big downside here for us schleps is we still need housing. Real estate still is an investment, however for most average Americans, it's more of a piggy bank.
Delfuego
11-08-2021, 19:39
@Vic I know a lot of people from Venezuela, Colombia and South America. I lived in South America too. You are not correct. You can take your "gotchas" and put them back in their holster. Venezuela is not the US. Joe Biden is not Hugo Chavez. You can keep on swinging, but you're hitting nothing but air.
"Everyone..... Relax!"
-Charles Schwab
https://youtu.be/TnZW8YgQb1k
https://youtu.be/bwlNUpFCHTE
HoneyBadger
11-08-2021, 20:02
Congratulations.
You literally just described why Crypto of ANY KIND is a farce as a wealth store...
PM is tangible, and has value in society. The current agreed upon value? Maybe not, but it is still valuable.
Crypto is neither of those things...
Okay, you can believe that if you want… but my crypto value has increased my wealth by 400+% in the last 2 years. Have fun watching the rocket as it leaves the planet from your golden throne. :D I’m 33 years old with a net worth well over 1M… and about half of that is crypto. It’s not too late to take your blinders off ;)
Vic Tory
11-08-2021, 20:32
Congratulations.
You literally just described why Crypto of ANY KIND is a farce as a wealth store...
PM is tangible, and has value in society. The current agreed upon value? Maybe not, but it is still valuable.
Crypto is neither of those things...
88312
HoneyBadger, congratulations on what you've managed to do. Get out before it all comes crashing down around you.
@Vic I know a lot of people from Venezuela, Colombia and South America. I lived in South America too.
So what? Two of my best friends are Venezuelans. They taught me to speak Spanish. I visit with them as often as possible. (But I am careful. They are both in business positions which are very ... delicate....)
You are not correct. You can take your "gotchas" and put them back in their holster. Venezuela is not the US. Joe Biden is not Hugo Chavez.
I'm sorry. You headed off on a tangent without me.... I never intended to equate Biden and Chavez.
My primary points were equating the demise of the Venezuelan Middle Class with what's happening to our Middle Class. And I was equating Venezuela's hyperinflation with what is in the offing for this republic.
Grant H.
11-08-2021, 21:08
Okay, you can believe that if you want? but my crypto value has increased my wealth by 400+% in the last 2 years. Have fun watching the rocket as it leaves the planet from your golden throne. :D I?m 33 years old with a net worth well over 1M? and about half of that is crypto. It?s not too late to take your blinders off ;)
Gambling on crypto has been a good way to gain money. I've never argued that. It's really no different than gambling on stocks.
You have suggested that crypto is a better wealth preservation mechanism than precious metals. This is what I disagree with.
Any/All crypto is literally intrinsically worthless. It's nothing but a collection of 1's and 0's that a good chunk of society has agreed is worth something. It's just another fiat currency, that isn't backed by anything but a mutual agreement that it's worth X dollars for Y crypto-coins.
I'll leave it to you to brag about, and share vague ranges of, your net worth... It's the internet, don't take it so seriously...
Precious metals. Gold & silver. It has been money for over 6,000 years.
When the SHTF, you still can't eat gold & silver. If you invest in lead, it can get you gold & silver...and dinner.
long position on Ag PART II
Vic Tory
11-08-2021, 21:44
The Venezuelan people loved socialism until they began to starve.
In Hemingway’s novel, “The Sun Also Rises,” Bill asked Mike how he went bankrupt. Mike replied, “Two ways. Gradually and then suddenly.”
In a socialist economy, bankruptcy happens *gradually* and then *suddenly*.
- Erwin Lutzer, in “We Will Not Be Silenced"
HoneyBadger
11-08-2021, 21:58
Gambling on crypto has been a good way to gain money. I've never argued that. It's really no different than gambling on stocks.
You have suggested that crypto is a better wealth preservation mechanism than precious metals. This is what I disagree with.
Any/All crypto is literally intrinsically worthless. It's nothing but a collection of 1's and 0's that a good chunk of society has agreed is worth something. It's just another fiat currency, that isn't backed by anything but a mutual agreement that it's worth X dollars for Y crypto-coins.
I'll leave it to you to brag about, and share vague ranges of, your net worth... It's the internet, don't take it so seriously...
Okay. Millions of people who are wealthy disagree with you… but okay. [Flower]
Aloha_Shooter
11-09-2021, 16:08
I keep bringing this up whenever people talk about "The Great Recession" as a way to dump on George W. Bush. Even my mother used to repeat this garbage until I reminded her just how bad the economy was during the Carter malaise. I would contend the real economy -- people working and spending and dealing with one another as opposed to Wall Street and the financial sector -- was better even during the Carter malaise than during the pandemic shutdowns AND it wasn't Trump's fault. Forget the stock market and see what people are doing to get by, how much disposable income do they really have (and I'm not talking about people putting everything on a credit card that will eventually come due).
I thought the Carter administration did everything wrong and no one in the US could do worse -- until I saw what Obama did to the economy. The strategy from every Democratic president from Johnson to Carter to Clinton to Obama and now to Biden has been to devalue the dollar so they could pay back loans taken out yesterday with paper worth less than the loan was when issued. It's the only way they can keep printing money like this and it DOES cause inflation.
Bailey Guns
11-09-2021, 17:45
It appears to me that a huge part of the problem is so few people who want to work now. Even in Altus, OK I see signs in just about every business for entry level labor at $11 to $15 hour. $15 an hour is pretty decent pay in this area...a person can actually live on that here. There are several places in town that have signs on the door (mostly restaurants) that say they're closed due to lack of help.
hurley842002
11-09-2021, 18:33
It appears to me that a huge part of the problem is so few people who want to work now. Even in Altus, OK I see signs in just about every business for entry level labor at $11 to $15 hour. $15 an hour is pretty decent pay in this area...a person can actually live on that here. There are several places in town that have signs on the door (mostly restaurants) that say they're closed due to lack of help.
Then you have those of us who have worked since childhood, looking at loss of job due to a damn vaccine mandate, strange times indeed!
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Martinjmpr
11-10-2021, 15:55
Saw this on a CNBC link on FB:
"Inflation has taken away all the wage gains for workers and then some (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/10/inflation-has-taken-away-all-the-wage-gains-for-workers-and-then-some.html?utm_content=Main&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwAR1ArEjNkQGKsgC200BUr8s3Ladofe3_x4q-VyZqhrMQArXin9XagGUZxvU#Echobox=1636567648)"
I'm imagining the late R. Lee Ermey in his role as GySgt Hartman saying "Well, No Shit, Sherlock!" [facepalm]
theGinsue
11-10-2021, 19:01
That got a chuckle out of me.
What scares me is how bad they've make things in just over 10.5 months and they still have 3+ more years to bring us down even deeper.
StagLefty
11-11-2021, 08:32
That got a chuckle out of me.
What scares me is how bad they've make things in just over 10.5 months and they still have 3+ more years to bring us down even deeper.
That is indeed the fear I have !!!!!
I guess I have high hopes that the mid-term elections will knock the Dems. out of full control and bringing a halt to any more large spending bills, and making Biden a dead duck from there on out. Fingers crossed but honestly, with how bad things are, I really expect it to happen.
clodhopper
11-11-2021, 09:36
Knock the dems out to stop the excessive spending and put the repubs back in for just regular high spending.... right? Two sides of the same coin.
Knock the dems out to stop the excessive spending and put the repubs back in for just regular high spending.... right? Two sides of the same coin.
Pretty much. Excessive spending by government isn?t limited to any particular party. Maybe the manner in which the parties choose to squander their spending are different but the words government and efficiency go together like oil and water.
I do get a chuckle when I gas up at the station closest to my house. Someone put stickers of Biden on most of the pumps with him pointing towards the prices and the phrase ?I did that? below.
Grant H.
11-11-2021, 10:03
I do get a chuckle when I gas up at the station closest to my house. Someone put stickers of Biden on most of the pumps with him pointing towards the prices and the phrase ?I did that? below.
"Someone"... wink wink... nudge nudge... snicker snicker...
[Sarcasm2]
IDK, so far I haven't heard of any repubs. that are willing to back the "Build back better" socialist bill of 1.75 Trillion that the Dems are now pushing. So I still believe it's the dems. pushing us the hardest down the path of socialism...
Biden stickers all over the gas pumps in Elizabeth;)
If I was a senator or congress, I would not even pass Trumps <$1t plan being too big.
1.7T Biden plan? I would work weekends to not get that thing passed.
hyperinflation. mind as well start $500 and $1000 bill in circulation .
Coming to a grocery store near you...
https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/0444/1086/3773/products/image_0aa66e12-2c0d-43b1-9964-de8ad88f0c17_2000x.png?v=1632870013
https://i.ebayimg.com/images/g/Ir4AAOSwzwxatt33/s-l500.jpg
IDK, so far I haven't heard of any repubs. that are willing to back the "Build back better" socialist bill of 1.75 Trillion that the Dems are now pushing. So I still believe it's the dems. pushing us the hardest down the path of socialism...
Biden stickers all over the gas pumps in Elizabeth;)
Other than the 13 republicans that voted in the house for the 'infrastructure' bill? The Dems couldn't get the squad to vote for it (because it wasn't enough), but 13 Republicans voted for passage.
this comment is unpopular, but past 4 president including republican really jacked up our fiscal and monetary system.
3 before including reaganomics jacked it up.
it all started with Nixon's going away from gold standard
this is why shit like DOGE coin is rallying.
The Venezuelan people loved socialism until they began to starve.
In Hemingway?s novel, ?The Sun Also Rises,? Bill asked Mike how he went bankrupt. Mike replied, ?Two ways. Gradually and then suddenly.?
In a socialist economy, bankruptcy happens *gradually* and then *suddenly*.
- Erwin Lutzer, in ?We Will Not Be Silenced"
I was born in Venezuela, and my Dad left Venezuela when they nationalized the oil industry.
Coming to a grocery store near you...
https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/0444/1086/3773/products/image_0aa66e12-2c0d-43b1-9964-de8ad88f0c17_2000x.png?v=1632870013
https://i.ebayimg.com/images/g/Ir4AAOSwzwxatt33/s-l500.jpg
We do need more toilet paper!
What people don't understand about inflation is that nobody gets richer, everybody gets poorer.
Inflation should be so scary, that liberals vote fiscally responsive.
But it's not happening?
All the people on the Government tit, are voting for more Government, more spending (of fake money.)
It's a self fulfilling prophesy.
TEAMRICO
11-12-2021, 22:05
Inflation should be so scary, that liberals vote fiscally responsive.
Good luck with that!
They only double down.
But it's not happening?
All the people on the Government tit, are voting for more Government, more spending (of fake money.)
It's a self fulfilling prophesy.
Because they're all "entitled" to a BIGGER tit.....
hollohas
11-14-2021, 08:15
I guess I have high hopes that the mid-term elections will knock the Dems. out of full control and bringing a halt to any more large spending bills, and making Biden a dead duck from there on out. Fingers crossed but honestly, with how bad things are, I really expect it to happen.Won't make a difference. Congressional elections only effect legislation. And it's not legislation alone that is causing this.. in fact, that's a minor part of it. The vast majority is administrative edict from county level on up.
hollohas
11-14-2021, 08:21
And the 6% inflation number is hogwash. Literally EVERYTHING we buy is much more than 6% more expensive now than it was a year ago.
Everything I sell is way more than 6% more expensive than it was a year ago.
About the only thing that is close to the 6% number is real estate, and even that has surpassed 6% in many areas.
We're being lied to as usual.
People have probably inflated 6%. Lots of emobros "taking a year off" and full time remote employees putting in their 4 hours a week.
But yeah, sarcasm aside someone would have to be foolish to believe there is only 6% inflation unless cherry picking certain products.
yup. dumbasses cry about how little $250k yr gets them, but thinking $15-17/hr for fast food is too much money.
well.... I think 250k is too much $ for dumbass sh1t they do , but fast food guys gets paid less.
it is already getting proven that restaurant works are not replaceable at that same rate, but many 250k jobs are easily replaceable at the same $ rate.
if you do not believe me, look at many ambitious employees secretly wanna take the management job in a fermto-second and waiting for them to get fired/laid off.
Vic Tory
11-14-2021, 18:59
I guess I have high hopes that the mid-term elections will knock the Dems. out of full control and bringing a halt to any more large spending bills, and making Biden a dead duck from there on out. Fingers crossed but honestly, with how bad things are, I really expect it to happen.Sadly, we have seen too little fiscal restraint on the part of the Republicans. When THEY were in the majority, they kept spending at rates that would get me thrown in jail.
But I do believe there's going to be one heck of a push-back in 2022. If the Rs are not wise -- and keep spending, keep the border open, keep funding Biden's idiotic hallucinations -- 2024 will NOT be the Red Wave they're predicting.
Vic Tory
11-14-2021, 19:00
yup. dumbasses cry about how little $250k yr gets them, but thinking $15-17/hr for fast food is too much money.
well.... I think 250k is too much $ for dumbass sh1t they do , but fast food guys gets paid less.What are you ... 15 years old??!!!
Fast food jobs were never intended to be careers for 95% of the people in that business. They have always been "entry level" jobs. If somebody is complaining they're not getting a "living wage" from their Wendy's job ... they are probably too stupid to be working (even) in fast food. They should be on the back of a garbage truck (which actually pays much better). They could be Flaggers on road construction sites ... working for a janitorial service ... loading dock ... construction clean-up....
it is already getting proven that restaurant works are not replaceable at that same rate, but many 250k jobs are easily replaceable at the same $ rate.
if you do not believe me, look at many ambitious employees secretly wanna take the management job in a fermto-second and waiting for them to get fired/laid off.I'm guessing you posted this off your phone and either fat-fingered or auto correct mangled what you posted. I cannot make sense of what you posted, so I cannot reply.
I just checked the dealer where I got my trailer 2 years ago.
I paid $1700 or $1750
About 6 months ago, they were right at $2k
Now they're $2950
Inflation is a myth
dumb yellen and Powell said it was temporary from supply chain and it will stabilize soon.
That was around Sept 2020. After 13mo, it is much worse now.
I do get a chuckle when I gas up at the station closest to my house. Someone put stickers of Biden on most of the pumps with him pointing towards the prices and the phrase ?I did that? below.
This isn?t the gas station by my house but these stickers are everywhere.
Not sure if this directly relates to this thread but I hate when the gas pumps automatically shut off at some arbitrary dollar amount. At least this one went to $85. My last couple of ?fill ups? shut off at $75. Still would have been nice to get that last five gallons in and top it off.
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20211118/2f45b83bd0a921b5fc47e89d865974cc.jpg
This isn?t the gas station by my house but these stickers are everywhere.
Not sure if this directly relates to this thread but I hate when the gas pumps automatically shut off at some arbitrary dollar amount. At least this one went to $85. My last couple of ?fill ups? shut off at $75. Still would have been nice to get that last five gallons in and top it off.
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20211118/2f45b83bd0a921b5fc47e89d865974cc.jpg
I've seen 75, 85, 90, 95, 100, 110 and 120.
Pretty stupid
I've seen 75, 85, 90, 95, 100, 110 and 120.
Pretty stupid
I was in a hurry so I took my $85 of gas and left.
When I fill up my company truck after it stops I swipe the card again and start another transaction and finish filling it up. Definitely stupid that instead of one $95 transaction for a full tank I have to do it twice and get a $75 receipt followed immediately by a $19 receipt or whatever.
clodhopper
11-18-2021, 10:27
It is just a method to limit risk/losses from the pump-n-dash theft crowd. Farther out of the cities where more people drive big pickups and fewer people steal fuel, the limits are higher. The station close to me limits at $150.
Pump-n-dash?
This is a card limit. How does that prevent theft?
Grant H.
11-18-2021, 10:49
Pump-n-dash?
This is a card limit. How does that prevent theft?
Since the gas station doesn't know how much you're going to get, they "authorize" your card. Meaning they verify that the card is valid with either the bank or the card issuer.
There are ways to make the authorization succeed, but the final settlement (batch processing often) fail.
Hence pump-and-dash limits.
I always felt it was more about rationing supply.
But... I suppose it may limit the losses (likely insured anyway) of the station if CC fraud is happening.
ETA: Didn't see Grant's post while I was typing mine, or I would have probably reversed the order of my statements.
I will agree that it can be frustrating when you are trying to fill all the way up for certain reasons and the pump cuts you off short. It seems like I may have pre-paid a time or 2 to circumvent this, but that may have been with cash... Don't recall for sure.
I just saw this headline.
Oil prices are finally falling. Thank China and Joe Biden
By Julia Horowitz, CNN Business
Updated 11:26 AM ET, Thu November 18, 2021
https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/18/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html
clodhopper
11-18-2021, 12:55
Since the gas station doesn't know how much you're going to get, they "authorize" your card. Meaning they verify that the card is valid with either the bank or the card issuer.
There are ways to make the authorization succeed, but the final settlement (batch processing often) fail.
Hence pump-and-dash limits.
That and the limits are often global on all transactions. So a post-pay transaction (cash, whatever) hit the same pump limit also.
We get used to the technology built into our phones and forget that most of the purchasing systems we interact with are incredibly outdated and limited.
The pump limits have always been there, but only when the per gallon cost get out of hand do we end up hitting them with any regularity. 2009 comes to mind when fuel was 4 to 5 bucks a gallon. I remember gas stations lowering limits at that time as more people were trying to steal it. The place I normally bought gas back then started at $100 limit, then it went to $75 and later $60. It is hard on the mind to hit the fill limit twice and the tank still isnt full.
Vic Tory
11-18-2021, 13:23
As I have a 36 gallon tank in my truck, I've been hitting these pump limits for the last two years. It seems to vary by station whether or not I can simply re-authorize my card and continue filling up.
When I fill up my company truck after it stops I swipe the card again and start another transaction and finish filling it up. Definitely stupid that instead of one $95 transaction for a full tank I have to do it twice and get a $75 receipt followed immediately by a $19 receipt or whatever.
Saw this on a CNBC link on FB:
"Inflation has taken away all the wage gains for workers and then some (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/10/inflation-has-taken-away-all-the-wage-gains-for-workers-and-then-some.html?utm_content=Main&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwAR1ArEjNkQGKsgC200BUr8s3Ladofe3_x4q-VyZqhrMQArXin9XagGUZxvU#Echobox=1636567648)"
I'm imagining the late R. Lee Ermey in his role as GySgt Hartman saying "Well, No Shit, Sherlock!" [facepalm]
Happens every time they up the minimum wage. Increased costs lead to negating the increased earnings.
...but I'm sure the government loves it, because they get to take more in taxes without producing anything.
Bailey Guns
11-18-2021, 15:55
Happens every time they up the minimum wage. Increased costs lead to negating the increased earnings.
...but I'm sure the government loves it, because they get to take more in taxes without producing anything.
The government never produces anything. Well...dependency. The government produces dependency.
BushMasterBoy
11-26-2021, 16:09
Oil Down
88512
CNBC said it is transportation sector sell off due to new mutilated variants. I don't think that is the case. DJ transport is very small fraction of entire market.
probably millennial cashing in to buy stuff for holiday.
If this massive cashing in from kids trying to buy holiday trickle huge sell off (which also leads to margin call) I will be laughing.
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