over/under on the Iranians

[battlemidget]

I think it'll be done before the boss takes off for lunch on Friday.

[theGinsue]

Boy, I'm split 50/50 as to whether or not we'll do anything. Whether we jump in or not, it's going to be interesting.

You've gotta hand it to the Iranian people. They're sick of the sh!t from the Islamic Regime and, totally unarmed are going out there to topple the regime.

[battlemidget]

Iran is ~2.5 Texas's and Tehran is not so easy to get to. I bet the war planners are coming up with some wild stuff.

[Aloha_Shooter]

Iran is ~2.5 Texas's and Tehran is not so easy to get to. I bet the war planners are coming up with some wild stuff.

If only someone had completely demolished their IADS last year ... oh, wait ...

[HoneyBadger]

If only someone had completely demolished their IADS last year ... oh, wait ...

Watching all that play out was hilarious.

Only limitation now is that we don't really have the necessary forces postured to do much according to anything I can find. I follow SentDefender and OSINTTechnical on X and they have been pretty damn accurate regarding major US movements.

We moved our only CSG out of the area a month ago. Even though our B2's can circle the globe to bomb Iranian bunkers, I don't know how that would help the Iranian people in this case.

I think they will reach a turning point in the next few days were Iranian police/military put down their arms.... or there will be a LOT of death.

Some estimates I'm seeing as of today state that there are at least 3k deaths, but high estimates are in the 12-20k range.

It's ugly. Pray for the good people caught up in it.

[BushMasterBoy]

Usually stages from Fairford. This Five Eyes stuff makes the preps easy.

https://sof.news/news/us-military-raf-fairford/

[Clint45]

Someone needs to airdrop sniper rifles.

[Hummer]

Someone needs to airdrop sniper rifles.

And pallets of AK's, grenade launchers an mortars. I don't see that happening, in part because it will take time to reposition assets, while thousands more are killed by the Ayatollah's henchmen.

In June, "Israeli raids against the regime?s oppressive apparatus, planned when Mr. Trump stopped last year?s 12-day war, would likely have been far more effective (the Israelis were gunning to eliminate more than 1,000 members of the command structure of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the Basij), a significant U.S. strike today could still knock out some of these officers". So, Mr. Trump stopped Israel from taking out the IRGC and the militias, the same forces that are machine gunning thousands of unarmed Iranian. Sometimes I wonder if there's a Biden advisor in Trump's inner circle.

Arguments for taking action now are laid out in this WSJ article, worth reading: https://www.wsj.com/opinion/dont-repeat-obamas-mistake-in-iran-99071dea?st=yiMq87&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

[Madusa]

Divide and conquer, another force needs to attack and force the RG to fight away from the population.

[Duman]

We need to stay out of Iran. We've fucked up the middle east enough already.

[TEAMRICO]

We need to stay out of Iran. We've fucked up the middle east enough already.

Uh, it’s always been that way.

[BushMasterBoy]

Other countries have violence and we don't interfere. This country has a lot of oil. We use a lot of oil in the USA.
Trumps flight to Mar A Lago costs $800K. And yet the VA says they don't have the resources to treat me. And yet they have the resources to build a new ballroom at the White House. It is a disgrace.

[eddiememphis]

You guys act like the US is the only country that has an interest in the area, and that the DoD is the only agency that can act.

Israel has hundreds of agents in the country and the CIA and other 3 letter actors are sure to be there right now, helping the dissidents. Toppling an oppressive regime like this is a good thing.

Iran is the main driver of violence in the middle east, propping up hezbollah and hamas. They have been developing nukes to destroy Israel.

Getting rid of the current leaders will open the country's 80 million people to the bounties that exist in modern society. Not just Ford trucks and iPhones, but modern infrastructure that will help them get out of the middle ages.

We don't need to bomb them or send in the 101st. The citizens have been ready for change for decades. They just need a little help.

[theGinsue]

The citizens have been ready for change for decades. They just need a little help.

+1 This.

Toppling the Islamic Regime in Iran and seeing it replaced by a democratic government of the people would remove a LOT of the problems, or at least the state support behind problems, that we're seeing around the world today.

However, if there is any truth behind the reports that we've got "thousands of Iranian sleeper cells within the United States", any action against the Iranian Islamic Regime would likely activate those cells here in the U.S. . Things might get hairy within our homeland. I'm not saying that's a reason to not get involved, but it's something to be ready for.

[BushMasterBoy]

My understanding is that the data is coming from Starlink. The Iran government has shut down all the other internet suppliers.

[bellavite1]

I said it before and I'll say it again:
We need to mind our own business.
God knows we have enough going on on this side of the world.

[FoxtArt]

If you really want to know if it's kicking off, check those betting sites and watch for sudden 10k+ - 100k+ bets that are suddenly dropped out of nowhere on us doing something in Iran within some tight deadline.

They did in Venezuela. One "bet" made over $400k.

[HoneyBadger]

Polymarket has certainly been interesting the last few weeks...

I doubt Iran has thousands of sleeper cells in the US. A dozen? perhaps.

A regime change to a democratic society *could* solve a lot of problems. Iran is a pain in everyone's ass. It could also create lots of new problems, as these things tend to do.

8 mins ago:
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi speaking today during an interview with Fox News’ Bret Baier:

Baier: “If you have a message for President Trump, who obviously is and has talked about and is considering some kind of action to help the protesters on the ground, if you have a message for him, what is the message?”

Araghchi: “My message is do not repeat the same mistake that you did in June. You know, if you try a failed experience, you will get the same result. You know, in June, yes, you destroyed the facilities, the machines, but the technology cannot be bombed, and the determination also cannot be bombed. Now Iran proved to be ready for war, for negotiation, for diplomacy. We have proved that in the past 20 years, in 2015, in 2025, every time. But it was the United States who always escaped from diplomacy, who cut the diplomacy and opted for war. My message is between war and diplomacy. Diplomacy is a better way, although we don't have any positive experience from the United States, but still diplomacy is much better than war.”

Trying to sound tough.... but pleading for diplomacy because they know we can walk all over them.

[flogger]

I'm going to check out Flight Radar in a few minutes, maybe we can catch the Grand Poobah when he heads to Moscow! I remember watching the flights out of Bagram when we were bugging out, that was something.

[HoneyBadger]

If anything interesting happens, this guy usually catches and retweets it right away:
https://x.com/sentdefender

[Clint45]

And pallets of AK's, grenade launchers an mortars. I don't see that happening, in part because it will take time to reposition assets, while thousands more are killed by the Ayatollah's henchmen.

Just 50 decent sniper rifles in the right hands would be a game changer. They don't even need to be modern... 50+ year old surplus works a lot better than nothing.

A pallet of Makarovs would be far more practical than AKs. You cannot walk freely in the street with an AK.

[HoneyBadger]

A pallet of Makarovs would be far more practical than AKs. You cannot walk freely in the street with an AK.

A pallet of Makarovs is a LOT of Makarovs hahahaha

[Oscar77]

We need to stay out of Iran. We've fucked up the middle east enough already.

We have and will.
And BTW The Middle East has done a great job of fucking themselves up for decades now.
We have had little to do with it.
We just back the only sane group of the bunch.

[HoneyBadger]

And BTW The Middle East has done a great job of fucking themselves up for millennia now.

FIFY

[eddiememphis]

https://safeairspace.net/iran/

15 Jan 2026: Iranian airspace (OIIX/Tehran FIR) has reopened after a sudden short-notice closure overnight that lasted around five hours and triggered diversions and cancellations. No official explanation has been given publicly.

I heard that two Chinese planes left Tehran during the shutdown. True? Who knows. But,Trump told Khamenei to beat it or suffer the consequences. Maybe he looked about and decided to make tracks.

[theGinsue]

But,Trump told Khamenei to beat it or suffer the consequences. Maybe he looked about and decided to make tracks.

Possible, but these types of people tend to be narcissists and totally assured of their own supremacy. Running away because "a few peasants" are raising a stink just doesn't seem likely to me. It'd be great if I was wrong (again) though!

[eddiememphis]

Possible, but these types of people tend to be narcissists and totally assured of their own supremacy.

Same could be said for anyone running for office... oh wait. Never mind. [Tooth]

[HoneyBadger]

Same could be said for anyone running for office... oh wait. Never mind. [Tooth]

You'd better watch your mouth, peasant!

[battlemidget]

Man, I really thought I'd wake up this morning to some news.

[theGinsue]

Same could be said for anyone running for office... oh wait. Never mind. [Tooth]

Bruh, I'm sure this was intended as a joke, mostly/sort of... just to poke fun at me for humors sake. Thing is, I tend to agree with you completely.

As for me, I'm definitely aware of my short-comings and weaknesses and realize that I'll need input from LOTS of folks (like folks HERE) in order to try to correct the course of this state. The only reason I'm looking to obtain office here is because we've had too many in office who refuse to do anything positive to correct the actions of those who do stuff, but it's all negative for the people of the state. For me it's not about power, money or because I believe I'm smarter/better than the next guy - it's about actually trying to correct the course this state has been heading into for the last 20 years (and maybe undoing some of the onerous legislation enacted in this state). Also not looking to make a career of it - I'm enjoying retirement far too much! But SOMEONE has to do something to put this dumpster fire out & I'm seeing more of the same stepping up. I've been running my mouth about what's wrong but (until now) haven't stepped forward to actually DO SOMETHING. Kinda feel like I need to put my money where my mouth is (figuratively of course since I don't have enough money to put anywhere that isn't directly supporting my family). I've been asking myself these two questions: If not me, who? If now no, when?

*If* we can get enough voters out to bring in a conservative governor, that person is going to need conservatives in the legislature to help support their efforts.

Besides, as a full-time retiree, what else would I do with my time (Ms. Ginsue is already getting tired of me being home all of the time)?



You'd better watch your mouth, peasant!

Funny.



Man, I really thought I'd wake up this morning to some news.

Rumors are floating around that we're moving a lot of our folks out of bases within strike range of the Iranian government while also bringing in a carrier group and staging other assets close enough to make a strike of our own. It may yet happen.

[Aloha_Shooter]

Rumors are floating around that we're moving a lot of our folks out of bases within strike range of the Iranian government while also bringing in a carrier group and staging other assets close enough to make a strike of our own. It may yet happen.

That right there is an improvement on some previous administrations who would purposely leave people to be hit so they'd have a better excuse for retaliation.