The Circle Approach to surviving

[AP-4Guy]

Very interesting forum. Thank you for starting what should be some very educational and thought-provoking discussions.

I know many people out there are new to the survival mindset and I am fairly new to this myself. I've been studying and practicing this for several years now, and I see some common approaches that evolve and develope.

I'll try not to drag this out so I'll get right to the point. I will start by pointing out two things that I know to be true: 1) People who plan no further than to have a gun, a well-stocked backpack and to live off the land are called "refugees". You will be joining 5 million or so other unprepared folks out there in the deer hunt. 2) In 2008, there were 700,000 deer and roughly 230,000 elk in Colorado. That's approximately 5 people for every big game animal in the state. Sure, we can eat other animals but you get my point. It's a losing proposition. "But, but, no one can hunt as good as me!", you say. May be true, but just because they can't hunt doesn't mean they won't be out there trying. Good luck with that.

I propose, to get started on the right foot, that you abandon this approach. If you're reading this now you are already smart enough to realize that life may not always stay as it is today, and you also have time to do something about it. Got a gun, and figure you can get whatever else you need with it? Don't be a fool. You have time, NOW, to do much better than that, so don't rely on that as a serious plan.

Here is a simple way to guide your planning. Start, as nearly all of us do, with a 3-4 supply of food, water, medical supplies, shelter and clothing in a backpack. This is the very first brick in the wall of preparedness. Yes, this is the first ring in your circle of defenses. You can, in a worst-case, SHTF sudden attack or disaster scenario, grab this bag and at least have something. But this is not the whole solution. Now imagine an emergency lasting a week: This is the second ring in your plan, and it will be slightly different from the first week's plan. Keep going from there. Each concentric ring represents a longer and longer timeframe, and so the complexity of the subsequent plans increase as you move outward.

Your particular circumstances will dictate your needs, of course, but this approach helps keep you focused. This will be very important as you progress because you will learn quickly that an undertaking like this can take on a life of it's own and consume you if you don't lay out a plan and stick to it.

So, start with a 3-day plan. Then 7 days, then 2 weeks, a month, two months etc. Include your family and also think about close friends - not necessarily providing for them but how you will handle them when it's crunch time. Will you take them in? What about your neighbors? Speaking of neighbors, how long do you feel you could stay in the city before things get completely out of hand? Where will you go after that?

More later but I just had to expand on an answer I gave to another post here.

[ronaldrwl]

I think you also need to think in terms of am I staying at home or do we need leave home.
I'm thinking in most cases your going to stay home with all your supplies. Trying to live in the mountains for more than a few weeks is not going to be easy.

Just me thinking

[Mtn.man]

try living here everyday,, it's not for everyone.
The romance of roughing in up here wears off very quickly.

I think you have to look at the situation where you are, come to an understanding of what there is and then develop a strategy to continue or leave.

There is no way people can/will compete for the wild game you mention in droves, as there are places NO ONE ever goes or has been, No matter what the scenerio peeps ain't got what it takes or can't go where the critters do.

[theGinsue]

I agree that the whole roughing it in the Mtn's thing would get old very fast, BUT..

In a long term situation, staying in the cities would becoming more dangerous. As the resources evaporated, people will become more and more desparate. Also consider that without water, heating and refrigeration, hygeine will degrade to unhealthy levels and people, in desperation, will consume food that will make them sick, and diseases WILL seemingly pop up out of nowhere and spread like wildfire.

If you physically remove yourself from the masses, you give yourself a bit of a barrier from some of those risks. You increase your chances for survival.

Just something to think about.

[Irving]

What do you guys think of just creating space where ever you are? If you shoot at people who come within 500 yards of where you are, how long will it take for people to just stay away? In that kind of situation, do you think people would be more likely to try and fight you or just go some where else?

[Troublco]

I agree that the whole roughing it in the Mtn's thing would get old very fast, BUT..

In a long term situation, staying in the cities would becoming more dangerous. As the resources evaporated, people will become more and more desparate. Also consider that without water, heating and refrigeration, hygeine will degrade to unhealthy levels and people, in desperation, will consume food that will make them sick, and diseases WILL seemingly pop up out of nowhere and spread like wildfire.

If you physically remove yourself from the masses, you give yourself a bit of a barrier from some of those risks. You increase your chances for survival.

Just something to think about.

I agree with this; no matter how well prepared you are once some of the less fortunates figure out that you have supplies, they and more of their ilk will come. And even if you have plenty of ammo, you have to sleep sometime. As we proved with the Sherman tank in WWII, quantity has a quality all its own. If enough unfortunates are trying for you, eventually they'll get you.


What do you guys think of just creating space where ever you are? If you shoot at people who come within 500 yards of where you are, how long will it take for people to just stay away? In that kind of situation, do you think people would be more likely to try and fight you or just go some where else?

Same as what I said above. If you shoot anyone that comes within 500 yards, you're advertising that you have something worth protecting and they'll come. And you have to sleep sometime. I'd rather use distance and stealth than trying to whack every nutjob that came trying for me.

[theGinsue]

What do you guys think of just creating space where ever you are? If you shoot at people who come within 500 yards of where you are, how long will it take for people to just stay away?


I'd rather use distance and stealth than trying to whack every nutjob that came trying for me.

Where I'm at right now is a tight fitting residential area (I have a whopping 6k sq ft lot). With so many homes for others to hide in/around, my ability to watch around me is limited. PLUS, bullets will go through my walls. If the bad guys (BG's) want to get to me all they have to do is randomly shoot into my home. Eventually they'll get me. Even if they didn't take that approach, as Troublco said ""You've got to sleep some time".

I still say that in longer term scenarios, my best choice is distance and dissappear.

[AP-4Guy]

I agree, although I didn't say it in my first post, that staying in the city is not a long-term solution. Quite the contrary!! I think the city would become untenable in fairly short order, probably 1-2 weeks max without food, even sooner without water. So, we're on the right track here.

What I was trying to get across is that in order to survive, even in the mountains or plains, you're going to need food and water. Lots of it. We each have the ability to start accumulating food and a way to get water NOW, not wait for TS to HTF and then you're all of a sudden on the street with your rifle and backpack. Come up with a plan!! And you'll need to be in a place that is defensible if it comes to that. Do I think it is smart to shoot at people just because they wander to within 500 yards of your stuff? No, not unless it's your property or you have unmistakeable markers out showing people where NOT to go. As was pointed out, this also attracts attention, and will surely invite harsh retaliation. I think a more sound plan is in order here.

I believe most people on the front range, when faced with a crises, will head to the mountains. You know how bad the mountains get on ski weekends, so just imagine if there is a crises brewing in Denver. Yes, initially those people will be confined to the roads and major highways, but it will not be long until the hills will literally be crawling with people. Just something to think about.

[Irving]

In a real situation where people are fending for themselves, the only way to determine whose property something is by force.

I like the rings of preparation idea by the way. Great method to keep focused. I've camped all of two times in my life and generally have no idea what I'm doing so I grossly over pack and bring all kinds of random shit that I never end up needing. Like I'll bring shoelaces or something, with no real purpose in mind, just "in case." Having a plan, to make your plan, helps keep things simple and prevents you from pushing around a shopping cart full of the contents of your junk drawer.

[AP-4Guy]

Stuart,

Not that I don't think this may be necessary under certain circumstances. But I am just wondering - will this be your property you are defending, or are you just planning on taking someone else's?? And what exactly is the threat these people are presenting to you?

This sounds like an extension of the "I have a gun, therefore I can get what I need" approach. I'm really not criticizing you, but as you progress I think you will understand how shortsighted and unrealistic this is. Again, this is exactly the situation we can easily avoid with a little forethought and preparation.

I can relate to the shoelaces syndrome! It's very easy to do. One thing I found helpful was the "List of Lists" on http://www.survivalblog.com

[Irving]

That isn't my "plan" it was just something I thought of. Personally, I think most of the conversation in these threads is misdirected as realistically, people will only have to survive on their own for so long (a few months) before either most everyone else is dead or gone.

Let's say there was a nuclear strike in Denver. You'd just have to survive long enough to make it to the next state where there is room for you to reintegrate into society. If there were a nuclear strike in several major cities, then you'd need to be prepared to live long enough to get to the next country. Even though people may have to fend for themselves, doesn't mean that people aren't going to join together in groups. There will certainly be risk of people just out looting or preying on the weak, but that won't be the majority of people.

Personally, I'm kind of surprised at how narrow the discussion has been so far. If 50% of the US is turned into a nuclear wasteland, I'm not going to try and drag my family to the most rugged part of Yellowstone to try and play "My Side of the Mountain" and hope other refugees leave us alone and our teeth don't fall out from radiation. We'll go up to Canada or down to Mexico where we can reintegrate into another society. Sure, it wouldn't be my beloved America, but it would be better than a nuclear waste land.

[SA Friday]

Small rural farming/ranching communities that have fortified themselves from nomadic raiders are the ones that will survive. Towns like this with a larger older population that remember skills like gardening, canning, dehydrating, and long term food storage without electricity will thrive the best. The town will also need to have a steady supply of natural clean water, preferrably above ground, but there are some advantages to wells also.

Large cities will eventually degrade to urban killing battlefields without a steady influx of supplies. Many will go into the mountains and die trying. After 6 months, is suspect 4/5th of the population would die from one thing or another. The survivors would rise to the top like cream in a bucket pretty fast.

The initial impact on the wild game would be severe, but after about 25 years, I suspect with the majority of people having died off, wild game and feral livestock will be everywhere, and dangerous. Hawaii saw this phenomanon after many heards of bovine went wild on of of their islands. There was hunting for feral bovine on the island at one time, and it was pretty dangerous stuff. We see it mostly here in the states with hogs, but imagine feral bovine going back to a wild state with the amounts we have in this country. Increase in large predatory animals population will occur to I suspect with the huge decrease in territory pressure. So if you can survive the first 10-15 years, I suspect you would see an increase in potential hunting.

The key to getting past the hard years will be small community coops with lots of agriculture and ranching to support the food stocks, quality food preservation techniques without the use of electricity, and enough security to keep from losing what you have worked so hard to make.

Seed stocks, Bell jar canning and the supplies and experience to do it without wasting food, knowing how to dig and made root cellars and undergound cold storage facilities, metal screen dehydrating techniques are just some of the things I've started investigating and learning. Growing grains, grinding grains, and cooking breads from scratch will also be vital. When's the last time you made bread from scratch (in an oven, without one of those fancy bread makers)? Smoking, dehydrating, and jarring meats are going to be vital skills too.

[jerrymrc]

Small rural farming/ranching communities that have fortified themselves from nomadic raiders are the ones that will survive. Towns like this with a larger older population that remember skills like gardening, canning, dehydrating, and long term food storage without electricity will thrive the best. The town will also need to have a steady supply of natural clean water, preferrably above ground, but there are some advantages to wells also.

Large cities will eventually degrade to urban killing battlefields without a steady influx of supplies. Many will go into the mountains and die trying. After 6 months, is suspect 4/5th of the population would die from one thing or another. The survivors would rise to the top like cream in a bucket pretty fast.

The initial impact on the wild game would be severe, but after about 25 years, I suspect with the majority of people having died off, wild game and feral livestock will be everywhere, and dangerous. Hawaii saw this phenomanon after many heards of bovine went wild on of of their islands. There was hunting for feral bovine on the island at one time, and it was pretty dangerous stuff. We see it mostly here in the states with hogs, but imagine feral bovine going back to a wild state with the amounts we have in this country. Increase in large predatory animals population will occur to I suspect with the huge decrease in territory pressure. So if you can survive the first 10-15 years, I suspect you would see an increase in potential hunting.

The key to getting past the hard years will be small community coops with lots of agriculture and ranching to support the food stocks, quality food preservation techniques without the use of electricity, and enough security to keep from losing what you have worked so hard to make.

Seed stocks, Bell jar canning and the supplies and experience to do it without wasting food, knowing how to dig and made root cellars and undergound cold storage facilities, metal screen dehydrating techniques are just some of the things I've started investigating and learning. Growing grains, grinding grains, and cooking breads from scratch will also be vital. When's the last time you made bread from scratch (in an oven, without one of those fancy bread makers)? Smoking, dehydrating, and jarring meats are going to be vital skills too.

Some of my favorite topics above.

[SA Friday]

Jerry, I'm going to start another thread about jarring food and specifically what pressure cooker will survive many ears of use. I would love to hear your inputs on the matter.

[AP-4Guy]

Please do! My wife and I started a garden for the first time last year. We canned the little that was left, but we ate most everything because the garden is unfortunately not that big. Hoping to expand it this year.

We also bought a pressure cooker (great if THSHTF because cook times are SO much shorter) and want to look into pressure canning. Baking bread from scratch is high on the list of things to learn. It's amazing how much work we've taken out of our daily lives and how spoiled we are in today's society.

[Irving]

I don't want to post this in SA's jarring thread, but if you are making bread from scratch, aren't you looking at using something like a dutch oven? I haven't seen anyone mention a Dutch Oven yet.

[BigBear]

You can use the cans from jarring for making bread and stuff. Yes, they'll be small, but it's saving space and weight from packing a dutch oven. Although, apple pie from a dutch oven is DELICIOUS!!!

My Smartaleck contribution.... "I'm joinig the Jeffery Donner party when the SHTF, never have to worry about food!" HAHAHA.

[AP-4Guy]

We'll have to check you for 'the twitch" at the next meeting then ;)

[SA Friday]

I don't want to post this in SA's jarring thread, but if you are making bread from scratch, aren't you looking at using something like a dutch oven? I haven't seen anyone mention a Dutch Oven yet.
No dutch oven required at all. I've learned to make bread from scratch over the last six months. I posted about it in Jerry's food thread.

[Irving]

Yeah, but are you going to have an oven available if the power is out or the gas is off? That's what I mean.

[SA Friday]

Yeah, but are you going to have an oven available if the power is out or the gas is off? That's what I mean.
Ya, but the concept is the same with a cast iron and brick ovens, gas oven, electric oven, or dutch oven. I would imagine each has it's own querks, but if you have a good handle on the other variables already it should shorten the learning curve.

The Iraqi's in southern Iraq can make an oven out of brick and camel dung to cook their bread. I got to see a lot of the ovens and their construction. They were real survivers. I can figure out how to make an oven out of brick too (I'll skip the camel dung mortar though, I can find something else).

[jerrymrc]

Yeah, but are you going to have an oven available if the power is out or the gas is off? That's what I mean.

In my case yes. I have 3 ways to go. I have a manual oven in the camper. I have a coleman oven that fits on the camp stove. And last but not least I am set up to provide more than enough power to run the bread machine.

For me the bread machine makes the most sense because electricity is something I will have even if I have to leave. Propane is a one-time resource that would not be replaceable if I had to leave.

[Irving]

I don't know where to put this, but it seems like lock picking would be a simple, yet useful skill to learn. I've got some stuff about it at home, but just don't have the time to get into it right now.

[Hoosier]

Alright, I'm horrible with the TL;DR stuff...

What I want is a reference of everything you'd need for survival that fits on an iphone. I know you're thinking, that's a horrible idea. But really, the iphone at that point would just be an ipod touch, a simple rugged handheld reference device that can store a ton of information. This same data should start as a wiki and be portable to whatever your particular devices are... even if it's just paper. A blackberry, a Kindle, these devices can easily be powered off small cheap 12vdc solar panels.

TL;DR version: Survival Wiki, does it exist? Is there an App for that?

[Troublco]

I don't want to post this in SA's jarring thread, but if you are making bread from scratch, aren't you looking at using something like a dutch oven? I haven't seen anyone mention a Dutch Oven yet.

You don't really need a dutch oven, but if you have one you can use it for almost everything. I have a medium size one for that reason. But you can get along without one, certainly.

[Irving]

When I thought of the Dutch Oven, I was imagining someone on the move or camping or something. I guess it would just be another accessory if you were only bugging in.

[jerrymrc]

Alright, I'm horrible with the TL;DR stuff...

What I want is a reference of everything you'd need for survival that fits on an iphone. I know you're thinking, that's a horrible idea. But really, the iphone at that point would just be an ipod touch, a simple rugged handheld reference device that can store a ton of information. This same data should start as a wiki and be portable to whatever your particular devices are... even if it's just paper. A blackberry, a Kindle, these devices can easily be powered off small cheap 12vdc solar panels.

TL;DR version: Survival Wiki, does it exist? Is there an App for that?

You might want to think a little beyond that. First up is books. There are a few out there that I like allot. A binder. Everything that I have found interesting on the internet I save. Critical things have printed out and keep in a 3 ring binder.

Electronic. I promised no Tinfoil but lets say plain and simple that there is a large EMP strike.
Your phone just became a paperweight. 90% of the electronics that were not shielded just became paperweights. In my case I keep 2 laptops. One is an older Dell D400 that I keep updated and shielded. I may never need it but it's only function is to be there when everything else is not.

As New info and data get put on a 500G hard drive that is shielded as well. In addition I keep back ups of everything on CD's. Lots of other stuff I have put away. I also have a newer laptop that I do not store much info on but is there as a backup.

Just some thoughts.

[Irving]

I hear that the threat of EMP isn't nearly as serious as people make it out to be.

[jerrymrc]

I hear that the threat of EMP isn't nearly as serious as people make it out to be.

Yes and no. My take is that in many of the tests that have been done it is not as bad as it seems. There are some history lessons that tell me it might be an issue.

Now that said for me at least it was cheap to guard against the latter. The extra electronics that are kept for leaving are all housed in one large container that is grounded. All items were already consigned to the "bug out" plan.

Just some thoughts.

[Irving]

Yeah, I don't mean to say that your precautions shouldn't be taken; not at all. I don't know much about EMP at all, but hear over and over that it is kind of like predicting the weather, where some stuff can be totally destroyed, while others are largely unscathed.

[Hoosier]

Ok, I didn't mean to get distracted on the method that the data is being kept in. Ideally I think having a handy digital copy for if it survives, and paper in binder is a great solution.

The trick is, the data. I think a Wiki is the ideal solution, since then the data can constantly be added too. I'd like to be able to drill down in a category as I need more detail.

For example, say there's a section on cars, it will have a section on preparation before a problem, a section for dealing with cars in various disasters, etc. For example, if the EMP knocks out new cars systems, will that old Chevy the neighbor down the street has still run? How do you get gas from one gas tank to another? How can you tell if a batter in a car works with no tools and nothing no keys?

Oh, I'm sure a lot of this is covered in a great many books; I just don't have the time to really hunker down and read a bunch of books to find the best tips. I think a collective effort could (eventually) produce a good open/free work.

[Mtn.man]

Don't know if it has been psoted, but anyone watch "Life afte People" I think on Nat Geo or one of them. It's a series that shows how the populace dies off after the big whatever. Interesting...