The spread of democracy in the Middle East?

[Bailey Guns]

In doing some reading re: the goings on in Egypt and a few other countries I've begun to wonder if it's even remotely possible all of these popular uprisings are the result of something sinister (attempts to instill unrest so Islamic gov'ts can be installed) or the result of a true desire by these people to have democratic representation.

I came across THIS (http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=3325) article from the CATO Institute written in 2003. It's no secret one of Bush's stated goals in Iraq was to install a democratic form of government in that country...and if successful that might cause a spread of representative government around the region. Most people at the time followed the conventional wisdom that held that wasn't possible (myself included).


Instead, as the president declared, the success of freedom rests upon the willingness of free peoples to sacrifice. But the people of the Middle East, not the people of the United States, must make these sacrifices. Indeed, heavy-handed attempts to force democracy upon the region by military conquest will ultimately prove counter-productive toward those ends, as the events in Iraq are showing us every day.But now we've seen this thing as it's started to play out in Egypt...with what is starting to look like positive results (is that just naive optimism?). We have similar stirrings in Bahrain, Yemen and a few other mid-Eastern and North African Muslim countries. Hell...there's even opposition protests gaining strength in Iran.

So...why is that? Is this the beginning of something good or something bad? It could be the start of something quite interesting in the middle-East.

[Troublco]

My personal opinion...I think those people are going to think they want an Islamic Government, the way the Iranians did. They'll think that they're getting what they want in putting the Islamists in charge. They won't realize that means that things will be worse, not better, until way too late.

[XJ]

Something very bad.


The only thing that elections in Egypt will bring is a less-violent transfer of power than a full revolution. The winners and losers will not be any different.

[mikedubs]

Don't be surprised if the military doesn't actually hand over power after rigged elections...something like the country formerly known as Burma

[Singlestack]

My personal opinion...I think those people are going to think they want an Islamic Government, the way the Iranians did. They'll think that they're getting what they want in putting the Islamists in charge. They won't realize that means that things will be worse, not better, until way too late.

+1. While economic conditions are generally very *bad* by american standards in middle east countries right now, and the average Hamid over there wants "change", I feel these countries are going to be falling like dominoes to the Islamofacists. The big problem is the Islamists in each of those countries are much better organized, better funded, and know exactly what they want. The rabble, while greater in numbers, will be pushed aside by the bad guys during the "election" process and Islamic theocracies will emerge.
B.O. wants that deep down, which is why he is "demanding" that all parties are represented in talks about forming a new government - this virtually guantees the Islamists will come out on top, for the reasons I mentioned earlier.
VERY bad news for Israel, and also for the US. By the time the SHTF in the whole middle east, we had BETTER have more stable sources for oil lined up. Yes, I know the likely answer there, too.

Singlestack

[Hoosier]

I think you are all immune to optimism. Nobody knows what will happen. The Muslim Brotherhood is not as popular in Egypt as some people (cough: Fox News) seems to think. The US can't intervene militarily in any of these places. We get to wait and see what the people (and diplomats) end up with.

I don't support the idea of a Muslim state. I don't support the idea of a Christian or Jewish state either.

H.

[Beprepared]

Mostly BAD! A little room for optimism, but not much. I try to shy from conspiracy theories, it's just real hard on this one.

[Byte Stryke]

I think you are all immune to optimism. Nobody knows what will happen. The Muslim Brotherhood is not as popular in Egypt as some people (cough: Fox News) seems to think. The US can't intervene militarily in any of these places. We get to wait and see what the people (and diplomats) end up with.

I don't support the idea of a Muslim state. I don't support the idea of a Christian or Jewish state either.

H.


My sense of optimism died when my eyes opened.
Now I plan for the worst, expect the worst, act pleasantly surprised at anything less than the worst.

I find it hurts less that way.

[Zundfolge]

Many years ago Will Wilkinson said this about democracy:
“Democracy is a genus, not a species. Getting a democracy is rather like getting a 'mammal' for a gift. Kittens are nice. Wolverines will lunch on your eyeballs. You don't drop a wolverine in your friend's lap, and then walk away feeling you've done him a favor, since ‘the best pets are mammals.’”

Furthermore when one reads the Qur'an and Hadith one realizes that Islam is absolutely incompatible with secular, liberal democracy in the style of the US and the west.

In the west we tend to see religious systems and political systems as separate (or at least separable) entities, but in Islam the state IS the church and the church IS the state, there can be no separation the entire concept is considered heresy.

You can have a Christian or Jewish society living under a secular liberal democratic government, but you really can't have an Islamic society living under one ... if its democratic the Muslims WILL eventually vote in a totalitarian, Sharia based government.

So its not a matter of rejecting optimism here, its a matter of viewing the world through the lens of objective reality, not pie-in-the-sky self delusion masquerading as "optimism".


I have to admit I find it kind of amusing (and frustrating) that back when "Chimpy McBushitler" was in office, the left and the MSM (I know, redundant) were very vocal that the idea of trying to spread democracy in the Arab/Muslim world was foolishness...destined to fail. But now that their Obamassiah is in office they're all for it. They also ignored all the conservative voices that were trying to tell Bush that the Islamic world would never embrace secular, liberal democracy.

[Lex_Luthor]

Apparently, we have plenty of domestic oil sources. I haven't done a whole lot of researching this yet, but maybe someone with some more time on their hands can do some interweb digging.

http://www.usgs.gov/newsroom/article.asp?ID=1911 (http://www.usgs.gov/newsroom/article.asp?ID=1911)

[Troublco]

I think you are all immune to optimism. Nobody knows what will happen. The Muslim Brotherhood is not as popular in Egypt as some people (cough: Fox News) seems to think. The US can't intervene militarily in any of these places. We get to wait and see what the people (and diplomats) end up with.

I don't support the idea of a Muslim state. I don't support the idea of a Christian or Jewish state either.

H.

Optimism is great, but you can't live your life "hoping" that everything will go the way you'd like it to. Right now, the Islamists are "optimistic" that they'll be able to take over control in some of those countries. I bet the Taliban wasn't all that popular in Afghanistan with the rank and file population either, but they had control. There's plenty of opposition to the Iranian regime too, but they're still in control. I'd bet that for every one person you see protesting, there are 10 more who'd like to but don't for whatever reason.

I support the right of people in other countries to choose their form of government. I fear the result when ignorance rules and the theocrats take control. Such results will be bad for everyone except the theocrats. Of course, if the theocrats take over then the people just lost their right to choose that government, or control it at all.

So all we can do now is wait and watch. As long as the military in Egypt is on the side of the country, I think things will turn out decently. Maybe not what any one group wants, but who knows. What they need is someone like Ataturk, who founded the modern Turkey. Someone who's pro-Egypt and not pro-themselves. I hope that happens. But I'll bet those aren't good odds. Everyone can hope for World Peace too, but as long as human nature is what it is I probably am immune to optimism for that. And yes, I dislike those "coexist" bumper stickers. You notice that they start with a Muslim Crescent? [ROFL1]