Tripoli has fallen

[jscwerve]

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2011/08/21/explosions-rock-tripoli-amid-reports-rebel-advances-in-capital-116547133/


Took em a few months.

[Ridge]

A few months, a lot of western airstrikes, and even just yesterday a team of supposed Libyan special forces soldiers that abandoned their leader and showed up in a Zodiac with a ton of weapons for the rebels. Sounds like a European op to me, as well.

I guess now we'll see if they have a free nation now, or the power vacuum leads to another extremist.

[Brock Landers]

I'm not holding my breath for Libya to turn into a thriving democracy. For that matter, I'm not too optimistic about Iraq or Afghanistan either.

[mcantar18c]

I'm not holding my breath for Libya to turn into a thriving democracy. For that matter, I'm not too optimistic about Iraq or Afghanistan either.
Lybia: No. They have nothing going for them, never have and I can't imagine how they ever could.
Iraq: Has hopes, but not likely.
Afghanistan: Not a snowball's chance in hell. Nothing can save that shithole anymore. 60 years ago, they were a thriving country well on their way to becoming something respectable, even pretty westernized. Then Communism and Islam completely destroyed any hopes of that.

[flan7211]

Not really sure the fall of Tripoli will wind up being a positive thing. I fear it will open the door to an even worse government. Qaddafi for all intents and purposes gave up on the terrorist sponsoring after Reagan punished him in the 80's. He was a symbol of the Cold War and was at the time an anti-western zealot. Now he was just another despot, maybe one we actually needed to stay put.

[MrPrena]

Oil prices should fall with Gadhafi overthrow
If Gadhafi is ousted, oil prices should fall, but it will take time, analysts say

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Oil-prices-should-fall-with-apf-3565426360.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=2&asset=&ccode=

Bree Fowler, AP Business Writer, On Monday August 22, 2011, 5:37 am
NEW YORK (AP) -- Oil prices around the world should start falling if Libyan rebels succeed in toppling Moammar Gadhafi's regime, though the full effect won't be felt for months.

On Sunday night, rebel forces pushed into Tripoli without meeting much resistance, hours after they overran a major military base that defended the capital. Opposition fighters captured Gadhafi's son and one-time heir apparent, Seif al-Islam.

Independent analyst Andrew Lipow said oil markets will likely respond Monday by sending prices lower in "a sign of relief that conflict has come to the end." But Lipow said it will take time for the market to erase the hefty price increase that resulted from the suspension of Libyan oil exports since the rebellion began in February.

Brent crude for October delivery was down $3.22 per barrel to $105.40 on London's ICE Futures exchange. Benchmark oil for September delivery was down 25 cents to $82.01 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Crude fell 12 cents to settle at $82.26 on Friday.

When fighting broke out, oil was trading at around $84 a barrel. It quickly spiked above $93 and kept rising to a high above $110 at the end of April. Demand from emerging markets including China was also a factor in the rise. Oil has fallen recently along with stocks because of concerns about the global economy.

Libya used to export about 1.5 million barrels of oil per day, almost all of which have been cut off. Although Libyan oil amounted to less than 2 percent of world demand, its loss affected prices because of its high quality and suitability for European refineries.

The European refineries have struggled to make up for the production loss despite an increase from Saudi Arabia. As a result, European markets should see the first and most significant drops in oil prices, Lipow said.

He added that any developments in the ongoing European financial crisis could also move stock markets around the world this week and oil prices along with them.

Independent analyst Jim Ritterbusch said that even if rebels manage to push Gadhafi out soon, the near-term effects on oil prices will be limited.

"Psychologically anyway, it's going to force some additional selling," Ritterbusch said. "But selling may not be pronounced because there's still a lot of question marks remaining" on how long it would take for production to resume.

Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research, said that once Gadhafi is pushed out, Libya's new government could take the path of the Iraqis after the fall of Saddam Hussein and spend years fighting over every detail. Or it could follow Kuwait's example and quickly decide to bring in an outside company to get production restarted right away

He added that there's always a chance that the process could come to a halt if one of the rebel generals tries to seize power, or if different factions get caught up debating the country's new constitution and put off making decisions about oil production.

"They do have a good cadre of educated people, but they don't have a long record of competent self-government," Lynch said. "It would not be a bad bet to think there might be a chaotic period for a few months till they get organized."

AP Energy Writer Chris Kahn contributed to this report.

[Ridge]

Oil prices should fall with Gadhafi overthrow
If Gadhafi is ousted, oil prices should fall, but it will take time, analysts say

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Oil-prices-should-fall-with-apf-3565426360.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=2&asset=&ccode=

Bree Fowler, AP Business Writer, On Monday August 22, 2011, 5:37 am
NEW YORK (AP) -- Oil prices around the world should start falling if Libyan rebels succeed in toppling Moammar Gadhafi's regime, though the full effect won't be felt for months.

On Sunday night, rebel forces pushed into Tripoli without meeting much resistance, hours after they overran a major military base that defended the capital. Opposition fighters captured Gadhafi's son and one-time heir apparent, Seif al-Islam.

Independent analyst Andrew Lipow said oil markets will likely respond Monday by sending prices lower in "a sign of relief that conflict has come to the end." But Lipow said it will take time for the market to erase the hefty price increase that resulted from the suspension of Libyan oil exports since the rebellion began in February.

Brent crude for October delivery was down $3.22 per barrel to $105.40 on London's ICE Futures exchange. Benchmark oil for September delivery was down 25 cents to $82.01 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Crude fell 12 cents to settle at $82.26 on Friday.

When fighting broke out, oil was trading at around $84 a barrel. It quickly spiked above $93 and kept rising to a high above $110 at the end of April. Demand from emerging markets including China was also a factor in the rise. Oil has fallen recently along with stocks because of concerns about the global economy.

Libya used to export about 1.5 million barrels of oil per day, almost all of which have been cut off. Although Libyan oil amounted to less than 2 percent of world demand, its loss affected prices because of its high quality and suitability for European refineries.

The European refineries have struggled to make up for the production loss despite an increase from Saudi Arabia. As a result, European markets should see the first and most significant drops in oil prices, Lipow said.

He added that any developments in the ongoing European financial crisis could also move stock markets around the world this week and oil prices along with them.

Independent analyst Jim Ritterbusch said that even if rebels manage to push Gadhafi out soon, the near-term effects on oil prices will be limited.

"Psychologically anyway, it's going to force some additional selling," Ritterbusch said. "But selling may not be pronounced because there's still a lot of question marks remaining" on how long it would take for production to resume.

Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research, said that once Gadhafi is pushed out, Libya's new government could take the path of the Iraqis after the fall of Saddam Hussein and spend years fighting over every detail. Or it could follow Kuwait's example and quickly decide to bring in an outside company to get production restarted right away

He added that there's always a chance that the process could come to a halt if one of the rebel generals tries to seize power, or if different factions get caught up debating the country's new constitution and put off making decisions about oil production.

"They do have a good cadre of educated people, but they don't have a long record of competent self-government," Lynch said. "It would not be a bad bet to think there might be a chaotic period for a few months till they get organized."

AP Energy Writer Chris Kahn contributed to this report.

But we won't see them at the pump. Never happens. Oil drops 25% a barrel, price will go down maybe 25 cents, tops.

[ronaldrwl]

Nuts, I'm into energy stocks. I need a little bump in price to get out nicely.

[MrPrena]

But we won't see them at the pump. Never happens. Oil drops 25% a barrel, price will go down maybe 25 cents, tops.

Totally agree. When Crude goes up a $1/barrel (~1.2%), gasoline/diesel price goes up more of a 5% (~20cents/gal).
In contrast, when we see -$1/barrel, gasoline/diesel price goes down about ~3cents/gal.

Damn price inelastic items. :(

[Ranger]

Totally agree. When Crude goes up a $1/barrel (~1.2%), gasoline/diesel price goes up more of a 5% (~20cents/gal).
In contrast, when we see -$1/barrel, gasoline/diesel price goes down about ~3cents/gal.

Damn price inelastic items. :(

What always pisses me off is that if oil goes up then gas prices go up immediately, if oil prices drop then it can take weeks for gas prices to drop with it. I won't play the liberal "oil companies are evil" card, but this is an instance where oil companies ARE greedy.

[TS12000]

My prediction: They enjoy freedom from that shithead for a little while then devolve into another African warlord den/cleric ruled shithole. Hoping for the best but the gut says they only have a fraction of a percent chance of being stable and tyrant free.