View Full Version : Romney Pulls Ahead of Obama in Colorado
HoneyBadger
10-11-2012, 08:44
From CBS: http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-250_162-57530172/poll-romney-edges-obama-in-colo-narrows-gap-in-wis/
Romney 48%
Obama 47%
Of course his lead is within the margin of error, but coming from CBS, this sounds like fairly good news!
On the heels of last week's presidential debate, Mitt Romney has emerged with a one-point edge over President Obama in Colorado and has cut the president's lead in half in Wisconsin, according to a new Quinnipiac University/CBS News/New York Times poll.
In Wisconsin, where Mr. Obama led Romney by six percent last month, the president now holds just a three-point advantage, with 50 percent to Romney's 47 percent support. Last month, the president led Romney 51 to 45 percent.
In Colorado, the two remain locked in a dead heat, with Romney leading Mr. Obama 48 percent to 47 percent, within the poll's margin of error. Last month, also within that margin, Mr. Obama had the one-point edge, with 48 percent to Romney's 47 percent.
In Virginia, the presidential race remains essentially unchanged, with Mr. Obama holding on to a small lead over Romney, with 51 percent support to Romney's 46. In September, the president led Romney 50 percent to 46 percent there.
All three polls, conducted from October 4-9, began surveying voters after the first presidential debate.
By about four to one, voters in all three of these battleground states say Romney won last week's presidential debate, and sizable numbers say the debate made them think better of him. But majorities say the debate did not affect their vote.
In Colorado, only 16 percent of likely voters said Mr. Obama won the debate, while 72 percent chose Romney. In Virginia, the breakdown was similar, with 70 percent choosing Romney and 17 percent selecting the president. In Wisconsin, 65 percent said Romney won and 17 percent said Mr. Obama did.
but you left out Johnson 2% ;)
HoneyBadger
10-11-2012, 09:05
but you left out Johnson 2% ;)
Please, for the love of God and the benefit of everyone else here, please don't get me started... [LOL]
http://i.imgur.com/WqNIE.jpg
DD977GM2
10-11-2012, 09:11
but you left out Johnson 2% ;)
[Bang][Rant1][Bang][Rant1][Bang][Rant1][Bang][Rant1]
That 2% can royally screw the ability to get noblowme out of office [Rant1][Bang][Rant1][Bang][Rant1][Bang]
ChunkyMonkey
10-11-2012, 09:17
Geez..stop believing in polls. None of them are correct! AGAIN, listen to me instead, it will be Romney by 5-7% popular vote and around 90-100 electoral. You read it here. [Pepsi]
Geez..stop believing in polls. None of them are correct! AGAIN, listen to me instead, it will be Romney by 5-7% popular vote and around 90-100 electoral. You read it here. [Pepsi]
[Pop]
Geez..stop believing in polls. None of them are correct! AGAIN, listen to me instead, it will be Romney by 5-7% popular vote and around 90-100 electoral. You read it here. [Pepsi]
I'll go with 3-5% popular vote and about 50-60 on the electoral.
Either way, it is good news to see even the polls making a turn for the positive. I don't trust them, but they are typically right
DD977GM2
10-11-2012, 10:11
Geez..stop believing in polls. None of them are correct! AGAIN, listen to me instead, it will be Romney by 5-7% popular vote and around 90-100 electoral. You read it here. [Pepsi]
Ill give you a pedicure if your are even close to being right [Beer]
BPTactical
10-11-2012, 10:18
Ill give you a pedicure if your are even close to being right [Beer]
Gadzooks is that a bad visual......
Here- this should put this to rest:
http://sphotos-a.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ash4/427854_497474823611040_719335754_n.jpg
Teufelhund
10-11-2012, 10:28
Here- this should put this to rest:
http://sphotos-a.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ash4/427854_497474823611040_719335754_n.jpg
These are the options presented by the pollsters as well, which is why they are inaccurate. They call people's land lines (who the hell has a land line anymore?) and ask, "Are you voting for Romney, Obama, or Undecided?"
You should also realize the Democrats are crying, "A vote for Johnson is a vote for Romney!"
Ill give you a pedicure if your are even close to being right [Beer]
LOL, and it must be videotaped and posted on youtube.
unless this is a BS lie like how Rush said he would leave the country if obamacare was voted in.
(who the hell has a land line anymore?) Beleive it or not, you don't have to go far out in the country to find unreliable cell service, so yes, I still have a land line...as do many others in my neck of the woods..
DD977GM2
10-11-2012, 12:08
LOL, and it must be videotaped and posted on youtube.
unless this is a BS lie like how Rush said he would leave the country if obamacare was voted in.
ITS FULL ON MOTHER F****ING LEGITIMATE!!!!!!!!!!!![M2][UZI][Weight]
DD977GM2
10-11-2012, 12:09
Beleive it or not, you don't have to go far out in the country to find unreliable cell service, so yes, I still have a land line...as do many others in my neck of the woods..
What cell phone provider are you using? I have verizon and
even out near Kiowa and remote oilfield locations like Baggs, WY I have cell service. [Pepsi]
Rust_shackleford
10-11-2012, 12:11
The Republic is saved Romney will use his powers of greyskull and fix the last 100 years of bullshit
These are the options presented by the pollsters as well, which is why they are inaccurate. They call people's land lines (who the hell has a land line anymore?) and ask, "Are you voting for Romney, Obama, or Undecided?"
You should also realize the Democrats are crying, "A vote for Johnson is a vote for Romney!"
We have a land line at our house- actually, I got a call last night from a pollster asking for my opinion- I told them "Not interested." Some people are old school I guess... [Tooth]
Byte Stryke
10-11-2012, 14:15
[Bang][Rant1][Bang][Rant1][Bang][Rant1][Bang][Rant1]
That 2% can royally screw the ability to get noblowme out of office [Rant1][Bang][Rant1][Bang][Rant1][Bang]
But if you watch the news, Romney has no chance of winning, so I already sent in my Absentee ballot for Barrack!
I didn't want to "waste my vote."
The Republic is saved Romney will use his powers of greyskull and fix the last 100 years of bullshit
Not, nice try though.
More like, Romney is elected and now we have the [B]opportunity to start making the necessary changes to the way we are governed and the financing of that government.
If Obama is elected that opportunity will disappear, likely forever.
Four more days until mail-in ballots start getting sent out...
http://coloradosenate.org/home/features/voter-registration-deadline-october-9
DEADLINES AND IMPORTANT DATES
October 9: Last day to register to vote!
October 15: Depending on the county, ballots could start going out in the mail. Check with your Clerk and Recorder’s office if you’re not sure when ballots will go out, and definitely contact the office if you’re expecting a ballot and you don’t receive it within about a week after mailing begins.
October 22: Depending on the county and location within the county, certain early voting centers will open. Check with your Clerk and Recorder’s office for early voting schedules and locations.
October 30: Last day for registered voters to sign up for a mail ballot and receive one for the 2012 general election.
November 6, Election Day: All mail ballots must be in the hands of election officials by 7:00 p.m., and we recommend hand-delivering ballots if you can’t get them in the mail in time to arrive at the Clerk’s office by 7:00 p.m. on Nov. 6. Also, people voting at precinct polling places must at least be in line by 7:00 p.m. to be able to vote. In most places, precinct polling places will be open from 7:00 a.m. until 7:00 p.m. on Election Day.
HoneyBadger
10-11-2012, 14:56
Again, go to www.govotecolorado.com to register to vote or to update your registration. It's probably still not too late to request a mail-in ballot if you want one!
ChunkyMonkey
10-11-2012, 16:43
Again, go to www.govotecolorado.com to register to vote or to update your registration. It's probably still not too late to request a mail-in ballot if you want one!
Yes, just not for 2012 election. The deadline for CO is 10/09/2012.
Rust_shackleford
10-11-2012, 16:46
Not, nice try though.
More like, Romney is elected and now we have the [B]opportunity to start making the necessary changes to the way we are governed and the financing of that government.
If Obama is elected that opportunity will disappear, likely forever.
I hear that same line of shit every election cycle and the conservatives seem to get more liberal.
I hear that same line of shit every election cycle and the conservatives seem to get more liberal.
You're equating the GOP with conservatives and they are not the same thing.
This election is truly different from all before it, that is why I'm voting for opportunity instead of a 3rd party.
Sharpienads
10-11-2012, 17:30
Again, go to www.govotecolorado.com to register to vote or to update your registration. It's probably still not too late to request a mail-in ballot if you want one!
Yes, just not for 2012 election. The deadline for CO is 10/09/2012.
It's too late to register, but you can still request a mail-in ballot. Or, you can physically pick up a mail-in ballot from your county's clerk and recorder office (at least you can in El Paso County).
Sharpienads
10-11-2012, 17:33
You're equating the GOP with conservatives and they are not the same thing.
Yeah, this seems to happen a lot. I do believe that the GOP is on it's last leg, though. If they continue to slide left, I think it will be time to say bye-bye. But I think there's still hope for the party, barely. I'll still continue to call myself conservative, but will have to register differently.
Four more days until mail-in ballots start getting sent out...
http://coloradosenate.org/home/features/voter-registration-deadline-october-9
DEADLINES AND IMPORTANT DATES
October 9: Last day to register to vote!
October 15: Depending on the county, ballots could start going out in the mail. Check with your Clerk and Recorder’s office if you’re not sure when ballots will go out, and definitely contact the office if you’re expecting a ballot and you don’t receive it within about a week after mailing begins.
October 22: Depending on the county and location within the county, certain early voting centers will open. Check with your Clerk and Recorder’s office for early voting schedules and locations.
October 30: Last day for registered voters to sign up for a mail ballot and receive one for the 2012 general election.
November 6, Election Day: All mail ballots must be in the hands of election officials by 7:00 p.m., and we recommend hand-delivering ballots if you can’t get them in the mail in time to arrive at the Clerk’s office by 7:00 p.m. on Nov. 6. Also, people voting at precinct polling places must at least be in line by 7:00 p.m. to be able to vote. In most places, precinct polling places will be open from 7:00 a.m. until 7:00 p.m. on Election Day.
Quoting my own post here for those with RIF challenges.
See the dates listed for details on registration, ballot requests, early voting, etc.
Yeah, this seems to happen a lot. I do believe that the GOP is on it's last leg, though. If they continue to slide left, I think it will be time to say bye-bye. But I think there's still hope for the party, barely. I'll still continue to call myself conservative, but will have to register differently.
I'm registered as a Republican simply so that the DNC stops sending me mail. Fortunately, the GOP never sends anything.
looking forward to getting my ballot![Beer]
ChunkyMonkey
10-13-2012, 16:34
Just a quick update... apparently CU boulder cheated and copied my prediction!!!!
http://www.colorado.edu/news/releases/2012/10/04/updated-election-forecasting-model-still-points-romney-win-university
Updated election forecasting model still points to Romney win, University of Colorado study says
October 4, 2012 • Social Sciences
An update to an election forecasting model announced by two University of Colorado professors in August continues to project that Mitt Romney will win the 2012 presidential election.
According to their updated analysis, Romney is projected to receive 330 of the total 538 Electoral College votes. President Barack Obama is expected to receive 208 votes -- down five votes from their initial prediction -- and short of the 270 needed to win.
The new forecast by political science professors Kenneth Bickers of CU-Boulder and Michael Berry of CU Denver is based on more recent economic data than their original Aug. 22 prediction. The model itself did not change.
“We continue to show that the economic conditions favor Romney even though many polls show the president in the lead,” Bickers said. “Other published models point to the same result, but they looked at the national popular vote, while we stress state-level economic data.”
While many election forecast models are based on the popular vote, the model developed by Bickers and Berry is based on the Electoral College and is the only one of its type to include more than one state-level measure of economic conditions. They included economic data from all 50 states and the District of Columbia.
Their original prediction model was one of 13 published in August in PS: Political Science & Politics, a peer-reviewed journal of the American Political Science Association. The journal has published collections of presidential election models every four years since 1996, but this year the models showed the widest split in outcomes, Berry said. Five predicted an Obama win, five forecast a Romney win, and three rated the 2012 race as a toss-up.
The Bickers and Berry model includes both state and national unemployment figures as well as changes in real per capita income, among other factors. The new analysis includes unemployment rates from August rather than May, and changes in per capita income from the end of June rather than March. It is the last update they will release before the election.
Of the 13 battleground states identified in the model, the only one to change in the update was New Mexico -- now seen as a narrow victory for Romney. The model foresees Romney carrying New Mexico, North Carolina, Virginia, Iowa, New Hampshire, Colorado, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida. Obama is predicted to win Michigan and Nevada.
In Colorado, which Obama won in 2008, the model predicts that Romney will receive 53.3 percent of the vote to Obama’s 46.7 percent, with only the two major parties considered.
While national polls continue to show the president in the lead, “the president seems to be reaching a ceiling at or below 50 percent in many of these states,” Bickers said. “Polls typically tighten up in October as people start paying attention and there are fewer undecided voters.”
The state-by-state economic data used in their model have been available since 1980. When these data were applied retroactively to each election year, the model correctly classifies all presidential election winners, including the two years when independent candidates ran strongly: 1980 and 1992. It also correctly estimates the outcome in 2000, when Al Gore won the popular vote but George W. Bush won the election through the Electoral College.
In addition to state and national unemployment rates, the authors analyzed changes in personal income from the time of the prior presidential election. Research shows that these two factors affect the major parties differently: Voters hold Democrats more responsible for unemployment rates, while Republicans are held more responsible for fluctuations in personal income.
Accordingly -- and depending largely on which party is in the White House at the time -- each factor can either help or hurt the major parties disproportionately.
In an examination of other factors, the authors found that none of the following had a statistically significant effect on whether a state ultimately went for a particular candidate: The location of a party’s national convention, the home state of the vice president or the partisanship of state governors.
The authors also provided caveats. Their model had an average error rate of five states and 28 Electoral College votes. Factors they said may affect their prediction include the timeframe of the economic data used in the study and that states very close to a 50-50 split may fall in an unexpected direction due to factors not included in the model.
“As scholars and pundits well know, each election has unique elements that could lead one or more states to behave in ways in a particular election that the model is unable to correctly predict,” they wrote.
All 13 election models can be viewed on the PS: Political Science & Politics website at http://journals.cambridge.org/action/displayJournal?jid=PSC.
Contact:
Peter Caughey, CU-Boulder media relations, 303-492-4007
David Kelly, CU Denver media relations, 303-315-6374
They're just trying to throw us off the scent. Everyone get out there and vote regardless of what any pollsters or researchers say and we can win this one.
Yeah, this seems to happen a lot. I do believe that the GOP is on it's last leg, though. If they continue to slide left, I think it will be time to say bye-bye. But I think there's still hope for the party, barely. I'll still continue to call myself conservative, but will have to register differently.
I agree.
saw this when they published the last results and it showed a Romney win. This model has never been wrong either. Hopefully that streak remains![Beer]
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