Global Trends 2030's potential Black Swans
Thought this was an interesting read, granted it was published on CNN's webiste but several of these topics I have had recent converstations with people on this very board about recently, #3, #7, & #8 specifically
You can read the whole article here, mostly about the rise of the Asian world as economic power and decline of America.
Quote:
Global Trends 2030's potential Black Swans
1. Severe Pandemic
"No one can predict which pathogen will be the next to start spreading to humans, or when or where such a development will occur," the report says. "Such an outbreak could result in millions of people suffering and dying in every corner of the world in less than six months."
2. Much More Rapid Climate Change
"Dramatic and unforeseen changes already are occurring at a faster rate than expected. Most scientists are not confident of being able to predict such events. Rapid changes in precipitation patterns—such as monsoons in India and the rest of Asia -- could sharply disrupt that region's ability to feed its population."
3. Euro/EU collapse
If Greece were to leave the euro zone in an unruly way, it could result in eight times the collateral damage as the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy, which could lead to a broader crisis in the EU in the future, the report says.
4. A Democratic or Collapsed China
"China is slated to pass the threshold of US$15,000 per capita purchasing power parity (PPP) in the next five years or so—a level that is often a trigger for democratization," the report notes. "Chinese `soft' power could be dramatically boosted, setting off a wave of democratic movements. Alternatively, many experts believe a democratic China could also become more nationalistic. An economically collapsed China would trigger political unrest and shock the global economy."
5. A Reformed Iran
"A more liberal regime could come under growing public pressure to end the international sanctions and negotiate an end to Iran's isolation. An Iran that dropped its nuclear weapons aspirations and became focused on economic modernization would bolster the chances for a more stable Middle East."
6. Nuclear War or WMD/ Cyber Attack
"Nuclear powers such as Russia and Pakistan and potential aspirants such as Iran and North Korea see nuclear weapons as compensation for other political and security weaknesses, heightening the risk of their use. The chance of nonstate actors conducting a cyber attack—or using WMD (weapon of mass destruction) —also is increasing."
7. Solar Geomagnetic Storms
"Solar geomagnetic storms could knock out satellites, the electric grid, and many sensitive electronic devices. The recurrence intervals of crippling solar geomagnetic storms, which are less than a century, now pose a substantial threat because of the world's dependence on electricity," the report says.
8. U.S. Disengagement
"A collapse or sudden retreat of US power probably would result in an extended period of global anarchy; no leading power would be likely to replace the United States as guarantor of the international order."
