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“And in the period into 2008, when the dollar was going down, that was most evident in the upward move of gold against the dollar. But what most people seem to forget is that gold was going up against all of the other paper currencies then as well.
So our view is that while the dollar may shift in its pecking order within the paper currency world, and outperform a lot of the other majors and possibly a lot of the emerging market currencies, we still believe that over the coming years we are going to see gold outperform paper and outperform the dollar.
We just believe that gold will outperform the euro, the yen, and other currencies more. The trouble right now is not so much to the dollar trade because at the end of the day the dollar is higher than it was on the US Dollar Index in 2009, but so is gold.
The issue for gold is that if you look back to after the first impulsive move higher in gold in the early 1970s, when we got the correction into 1976, when gold came off 44% before going significantly higher, gold struggled to rally as the equity market made its recovery after the 1973/1974 crash. So while gold is just consolidating at the moment, we still believe that it’s formed a base here around this $1,180 level, but its ability to move significantly higher is compromised as long as the equity market continues to do well.
At a point in time where the equity market finally does struggle, and it will happen, that is going to be the point where gold will really start to come into its own once again. But as we saw into 1976, when the equity market was performing well, it’s going to be very difficult while this is happening in equities to see a significant push up in the gold price.”