Long Position on Silver and Gold?

Interesting read.




https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimcoll...ve-plunge/amp/

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Apr 20, 2020,11:13am EDT
The U.S. Oil ETF, USO, Is The Culprit Behind Oil?s Massive Plunge
Jim CollinsContributor
Markets
Watching the May contract for oil futures this morning, I was shocked at the amount of coverage given to ?oil?s plunge? Monday morning. That may be because I watch the May 2021 WTI futures contract, which has fallen $0.18 per barrel to $35.34 in early Monday trading, not the May 2020 contract which has fallen an astounding $7.42 (more than 40%) to $10.84 per barrel and drawn all the headlines.

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The solution here is for USO?s fund administrators to dissolve it, as happened with XIV. Those administrators made a minute change in the fund?s composition last week?shifting holdings to the second- and third-month contracts instead of fully rolling over from the front-month contract to the second-month contract two weeks prior to expiration??but that was merely the proverbial shifting of the deck chairs on the Titanic. USO has outlived its usefulness, if it ever had any.

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There is a video here on tanker storage

https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CL1:COM

I didn't watch it yet.

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Originally Posted by Sawin

I?m trickling into ERX as its down huge. It doesn?t have to get back to normal levels to make a little $ at this point.

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Why not get into a non leveraged fund? You will pay for the leverage until the market goes back up. Leveraged funds are typically used for short term trades.

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Originally Posted by roberth

There is a video here on tanker storage

https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CL1:COM

I didn't watch it yet.

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Thanks. Also read seeking alpha with interesting article and storage as well.

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Originally Posted by whitewalrus

Why not get into a non leveraged fund? You will pay for the leverage until the market goes back up. Leveraged funds are typically used for short term trades.

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Yep, and it’s gone up 57.08% in the last month. I agree levered funds are best for a short term, tactical position for sure.

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Originally Posted by Sawin

Yep, and it?s gone up 57.08% in the last month. I agree levered funds are best for a short term, tactical position for sure.

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I accidentally forgot to dispose very small amount of DWT from many money market I opened for freebies. Had it for a while and it is not worth much (even when gas price went negative).
Yeah, as people said, those 2x 3x lev are for short run.

If I bought a regular inverse 1x, I would have made decent % by not disposing by an accident.

June Contract started trading!

Crude Oil Jun 20 (CL=F)
NY Mercantile - NY Mercantile Delayed Price. Currency in USD

10.57 -1.00 (-8.64%)
As of 12:17AM EDT. Market open.


Okay, June's Settlement date is 5/19. Supply* is given now. If demand isn't there, we might see another same/similar (but less crazy) stuff happening on 5/17-5/19.

* we know the estimate cuts (change in output, output, and storage, etc)

Although oil etf are up, I am totally unhappy with their performance. I am taking all the risk for little %.
I am going to find a better etf than USO/USL /DBO etc.


Worst freaking case, I am opening a commodity account.

Oil and copper were both down and hurting prior to COVID19. Both are basic building blocks of a a solid global economy. Check the BALTIC index past freight prices for what the economy was prior to the virus.
COVID19 was a head shot after a double tap to the body. Recall the trade war, tariffs and various currency issues?

Oil is on the way up.

WTI on the $32 handle, Brent on the $35 handle.