If you know how, you have better than a 50% chance to get to 100 mil from 1 mil.
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If you know how, you have better than a 50% chance to get to 100 mil from 1 mil.
Reminds me too much of the button they make you push in the customs area of Mexican airports: I'm pretty sure there's someone in a room behind a mirror that always picks me to have my bags tossed so I'd have to go with the red one, I don't win things enough to bank on green.
I don't buy lottery tickets because when I don't win I feel real stupid and I start obsessively thinking about all the different things I could have bought with the $2.
I can't imagine how my mind would react to hitting the green button and bringing up zeros.
Good point ... and even if you don't make the full 100 from the 1, if you "only" make 80 you're still way ahead.Quote:
Originally Posted by Irving
red-no hesitation.
<<<<<has worse luck ever so 50/50 is really like 0 for me. I have even had friends and coworkers joke about my horrible luck.
"For me it would be red button, but boy there'd be a lot of hesitation, head rubbing, rumination and agonizing. My hand would hover over that green button for several minutes before it came down on the red one."
Absolutely the same for me.
^^^^This. When they were younger the kids said they would not stand near me if we had to be outside during a thunderstorm.Quote:
Originally Posted by muddywings
Red. A million would make my life pretty smooth sailing.
Red
Green.. I didn't have the million before, so there is no risk in trying for 100m.
I was going to say green on the premise that nothing changes if I missed it and everything changes if I hit it. But then I read Irving's rationale and I'm gonna have to say, "red". Even very conservatively I can preserve the $1M and still make $30k to $50k a year to live on without doing anything. If I tried I'm sure I could do WAY better than that.