Real estate market: There has to be a "ceiling" doesn't there?

I would never pay for my house what I could sell it for. It's not trashed by any means, 1600 sq ft including an unfinished basement, built in 1965, some updating would be nice and a fresh coat of paint and new carpet in the two areas that have carpet. It's just a nice single family home on 1/2 acre with a big back yard, great neighbors and a really great neighborhood. I hope to still be able to stay here when I retire.

Yes, it's the down payment that people can't come up with in order to purchase their first home. I don't see how my younger son and his soon to be wife will ever be able to buy a home. Everything that goes up must go down. We've been through housing price bursts before and will again.

I moved last November.
My house has already picked up $100k in value.
I am thankful that I was able put a huge amount down and the sellers sold for asked price.
Even if the bubble bursts (and it will) the market would have to seriously tank to come close to the modest mortgage we have.
It is nuts, 3 homes in our immediate hood have all sold in the last 3 months for $25-50k over asking.

I bought a house during financial crisis and bought it at "short"
it was amazing to bid on a house lower than asking back then. I just cannot buy another house at a market like this.

waiting for another 2008-2011.

After the COVID quantitative easing the Federal Reserve is going to raise the prime rate. Too much money chasing too little goods and services. The price of money will go up ie borrowing will cost a lot more. Then the real estate bubble will burst. Unless there is a new form of wealth distribution, Federal Digital Currency. Then there might be a equitable solution. Until then the .gov will protect Wall Street before they protect you.

If we sell, we will leave the state and buy elsewhere… we’ve just been lucky (and insightful) on timing to far. I bought in may 2008, sold it in April 2017, and rolled that huge equity over into a much larger place on the other side of I25… it’s now a quarter million more than it was when we bought it so should be able to sell and never have a mortgage again in a place like KY or TN, on some land….

That’s my hope at least… just gonna see what happens for a few more years while the kids keep growing :)

And in case nobody’s noticed, the prices of everything are higher as a result of all the massive cash creation over the last 6-8 years

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Originally Posted by Sawin

And in case nobody?s noticed, the prices of everything are higher as a result of all the massive cash creation over the last 6-8 years

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This, but housing is beyond insane and normally accounts for a large percentage of the average persons spending.


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Originally Posted by Doc45

I would never pay for my house what I could sell it for. It's not trashed by any means, 1600 sq ft including an unfinished basement, built in 1965, some updating would be nice and a fresh coat of paint and new carpet in the two areas that have carpet. It's just a nice single family home on 1/2 acre with a big back yard, great neighbors and a really great neighborhood. I hope to still be able to stay here when I retire.

Yes, it's the down payment that people can't come up with in order to purchase their first home. I don't see how my younger son and his soon to be wife will ever be able to buy a home. Everything that goes up must go down. We've been through housing price bursts before and will again.

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I see it the same way. I bought mine in 2008 for 158k. (78 build 1400 sqft on an 8k lot)a few months ago I bought a riding now down the street from me. They had moved to Florida and were asking 490k for it same floor plan just a 2 car garage vs 1 car and about 300sqft more back yard. Sold In Less than a week. I would never pay that for my house

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Originally Posted by Sawin

And in case nobody’s noticed, the prices of everything are higher as a result of all the massive cash creation over the last 6-8 years

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Prices are higher due to demand, outpacing supply. Yes trumps time in office helped, however this clown we have now, who knows what will happen.

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Originally Posted by BushMasterBoy

After the COVID quantitative easing the Federal Reserve is going to raise the prime rate. Too much money chasing too little goods and services. The price of money will go up ie borrowing will cost a lot more. Then the real estate bubble will burst. Unless there is a new form of wealth distribution, Federal Digital Currency. Then there might be a equitable solution. Until then the .gov will protect Wall Street before they protect you.

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That is the normal or traditional pattern. But much of the federal debt is tied to the interest rate, ie what the .gov pays in debt service. Not all of it is at a locked rate. The fed wont willy nilly raise interest rates as it also raises the debt service that comes right off the top of tax receipts. That downward pressure on rates will keep them lower than would otherwise be logical. We wont see Jimmy Carter interest rates because it will collapse the economy from the debt service. Currently the solution is to BRRRR run the money printers. Some other stupid solution will come after this. Raising the rates, the logical response, will be avoided at all costs. So this housing bubble, based on cheap money, will extend longer than it would otherwise.