Printable View
And apparently Allan Lichtman, the guy who's formula has accurately predicted the outcome of every election since Regan's 2nd term, agrees with them.
http://www.usnews.com/news/blogs/was...to-win-in-2012
I don't agree with all of the keys (for example #9 should count against Big O), but even by my count it ends up in his favor.
Here's to hoping the formula is wrong this time around.
So before I click on this, it sounds like it's going to tell me that the Republicans are going to fail to put a decent person up for this election.
Yup. Key #13: No charismatic GOP candidate.
Lichtman has 13 Keys that he awards to either the incumbent or challenger party, and whoever gets the majority is likely to win. He's been right for the past 27 years...
I read it after I clicked on it. Interesting. He probably ruined the betting on the election in Vegas though.
Eh, so the guy had predicted 4 presidents. Whoop-di-do.
Thank you Pravda and Izvestiya.Quote:
Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. “This administration has been squeaky clean. There’s nothing on scandal,” says Lichtman. Another Obama win.
I predict Obama will win. Too many people are dependent on the government for their livelihood.
The GOP will put up Romney or Perry, both are socialist RINOs, Romney is to the left of Perry and Perry is a crony capitalist like Obama. The only reason to vote for either is the Supreme Court selection, but they'll each put up a moderate constitutionalist, not a strict one like we need.
Hmmm, Maybe that's why the world ends in Dec,'12.
[LOL]
I predict I'll consider eating my gun if the Mayans are right...
21DEC is about the time when the votes should be Officially counted. Just needs some time for the earth to realize what we did.Quote:
Originally Posted by Marlin
He needed a formula for this???Quote:
Originally Posted by jscwerve
Q: When do Christians believe in Mayan anything?
A: When it suit their hopes or opinions.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Delfuego
I have to say, the Mayan calendar is scary accurate.
now if the world is going to explode or if we just move to a new age in 12/2012 no one is saying but everyone is speculating.
The Aliens (considered Gods) will return and cleanse the earth of all liberals, evil, weak, and narrcisitic types and leave only the Gun Toting strong to refurbish the earth and take care of it. old mtnman proverb.
I see some flaws in his calculations.
#2 ... this may change as there are rumors that some higher ups in the DNC are unhappy with Barry and may primary challenge him.
#4 ... sorry, a 3rd party would HELP him not hurt him as a 3rd party at this point would split the conservative vote.
#5 ... is this guy on drugs? The short term economy is in the shitter. minus for O-boy
#7 ... the major changes (aka "fundamental transformation") have caused MAJOR backlash against this pres ... probably more than ever before. Stimulus, QE1 & 2 (and probably 3) and Obamacare are millstones around his neck.
#8 ... this is coming and coming hard and fast (by the end of October we'll be longing for the peaceful days of the Viet Nam war).
#9 ... Fast & Furious and Solendra are both heating up. By election time these will eclipse Monica Lowinski and maybe even Watergate.
#13 ... too soon to tell since we don't know who the GOP candidate is.
So overall I think this is a lot of wishful thinking on Lichtman's part. I predict he'll have his first loss with this pick (and if not, we'll be embroiled in civil war within a couple years and it won't matter).
Not a very convincing line of thinking IMO.
Party mandate: "Obama loses this key."
Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination. ”Obama wins this key."
Incumbency: "Easy win here for Obama."
Third Party: "Obama wins this point."
Short term economy: “undecided.”
BS - economy has sucked every minute he's been president. I say Loses.
Long-term economy: "Obama loses this key."
Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. “There have been major policy changes in this administration. We’ve seen the biggest stimulus in history and an complete overhaul of the healthcare system so I gave him policy change,” says the scholar. Another win for Obama.
BS - People don't like the change - I say Loses
Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term. Says Lichtman, “There wasn’t any social unrest when I made my predictions for 2012 and there still isn’t.” Obama wins a fifth key here.
BS - I disagree. There is huge unrest - I say Loses
Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. “This administration has been squeaky clean. There’s nothing on scandal,” says Lichtman. Another Obama win.
BS - there is a scandel everday but it's not be covered much on TV. But I think enough people are getting the full news - I say Loses
Foreign/military failure: "Obama wins again."
BS - I think the country doesn't have faith in his military achievements. I say Loses.
Foreign/military success: "Obama wins his eighth key."
BS - No body gives him any credit for this. I say Loses.
Incumbent charisma: "Obama loses this key."
Challenger charisma: "Obama wins".
BS - Let's wait until a challenger has been selected.
THAT was random as hell.Quote:
Originally Posted by Delfuego
short term economy obama loses big time. people are feeling the short term hard right now. his "undecided" is absolutely wrong.
policy change is undecided if the SCOTUS knocks down the health care mandate.
scandal: if there were some people with some balls to do the right thing and dig deep, the project gunrunner scandal should be on this list.
his military issues (2 of them) are also up in the air IMO. I would think one of them at least would go to "undecided".
If the GOP can put together any kind of a strong candidate they will win. that will be the key. it is a toss up in my eyes.
I would have to say he has not, but he has handled sasquatch in bed so I give him props for that.Quote:
Originally Posted by Tor Larson
See ... it's not that there hasn't been scandal with this administration. There's been plenty, it's just that the news media won't cover it. They refuse to cover the DoJ's whitewashing of the New Black Panther terror tactics at the polls, refusal to exercise their Constitutional obligation to defend the laws of the land (that they disagree with), what the President knew and when he knew it about Operation Fast-and-Furious, etc.
By all rights, Eric Holder should have been impeached for dereliction of duty and under criminal investigation for misuse of public office.