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  1. #81
    Machine Gunner Martinjmpr's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TFOGGER View Post
    Unless Iran were to attack Israel, and Israel decided to do something significant about it. Then the Arab nations would feel compelled to put aside their differences to deal with "Zionist imperialism", and come to the aid of their "Muslim brothers", whom they would happily have slaughtered the day before.
    Iran has been attacking Israel by proxy for years, through their support of Hezbollah in Lebanon.

    And I think that's the extent of their capabilities right there - hurling some rockets at populated places through a deniable third party. It's not like they have a credible air force or navy.

    Sure they can send "wave after wave of their own men" to get slaughtered on the ground, but as far as "projecting power" goes, they don't have the means to do so.

    As far as their "Muslim brothers" go, the Saudis and Iraqis have hated on the Iranians for decades, so it's not like they're going to do anything more than wring their hands and say "ain't it awful?"
    Last edited by Martinjmpr; 01-10-2020 at 10:41.
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  2. #82
    Possesses Antidote for "Cool" Gman's Avatar
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    Israel has handed the Arab nations their ass in previous conflicts, but now are armed to the teeth and have some of the best pilots on the planet. This scenario would be over in days if not hours.
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  3. #83
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    Took an advanced pistol class 2 years ago and one of the attendees was an Israeli soldier. All I can say is they are savage. They have to serve and are trained at a young age. This guy could shoot and his hand to hand combat skills were awesome. Super nice guy too.

  4. #84
    Possesses Antidote for "Cool" Gman's Avatar
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    Oh, really?

    Iran Says It Unintentionally Shot Down Ukrainian Airliner

    Yeah, everyone else is politically motivated, but Iran isn't. Riiight. Can't trust anything out of those shitheads.

    After maintaining for days that there was no evidence to show one of its missiles had struck the plane, the Iranian military said it was an accident caused by human error.

    Iran announced early Saturday that it had accidentally shot down a Ukrainian passenger jet, blaming it on human error because of what it called the plane’s sharp, unexpected turn toward a sensitive military base, according to a statement issued by the country’s military.

    The announcement reversed Iran’s claims that mechanical issues caused the crash of the aircraft, which killed all 176 people aboard. It had persistently denied that Iranian military defenses had downed the aircraft, a Boeing 737-800.

    International pressure had been building on Iran to take responsibility. American and allied intelligence assessments have said that Iranian missiles brought down the plane, most likely by accident, amid the heightened tensions between the United States and Iran.

    Suspicions that an Iranian missile had brought down the plane began immediately after Wednesday morning’s crash — just hours after Iran fired missiles at two bases in Iraq housing American forces.

    Official Iranian news media had cited technical problems as the cause in the hours after the crash. Iran’s Civil Aviation Organization chief, Ali Abedzadeh, doubled down on that assessment on Friday, saying nothing could be determined until the data from the black boxes was analyzed, and he characterized statements made by other nations as politically motivated.

    But by late Friday, officials were considering acknowledging that Iranian missiles brought down the jet, according to four Iranians familiar with the deliberations. The government was also weighing whether to blame faulty jet equipment.

    An Iranian report released on Thursday said that the plane, bound for the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv, was in flames before it hit the ground but sent no distress signal.

    Video verified by The New York Times and published on Thursday appeared to show a missile fired from Iranian territory hitting the plane, Ukraine International Airlines Flight 752. The video showed a small explosion as the plane flew above Parand, a city near the airport — where it stopped transmitting its signal before it crashed. The plane turned back toward the airport before it exploded and crashed, other videos verified by The Times showed.

    When Iran began firing missiles early on Wednesday in retaliation for the killing of Maj. Gen. Qassim Suleimani by the United States in Baghdad, international airlines rerouted flights away from Iran, and the Federal Aviation Administration barred American carriers from the airspace in the region.

    After the crash, experts raised questions about why Iranian authorities had not stopped flights in and out of Tehran.

    In Iran, a debate over how much blame the government bears threatened to destroy the national solidarity that followed the country’s conflict with the United States. Many Iranians said that their anger over the lack of accountability at the highest levels of government had quickly returned.

    On Friday, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said that the United States and its allies had intelligence showing that the passenger jet had been shot down.

    “We do believe that it’s likely that the plane was shot down by an Iranian missile,” Mr. Pompeo said at a briefing at the White House announcing new sanctions against Iran. “We’re going to let the investigation play out before we make a final determination. It’s important that we get to the bottom of it.”

    Mr. Pompeo was the first American official to publicly confirm the intelligence assessments.

    Prime Minister Justin Trudeau of Canada, citing a preliminary review of the evidence, called for a full investigation “to be convinced beyond all doubt.” The jetliner was carrying 57 Canadians among its 176 passengers and crew.

    “We recognize that this may have been done accidentally,” Mr. Trudeau said at a news conference in Ottawa. “The evidence suggests very clearly a possible and probable cause for the crash.”

    President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine made clear on Friday that Western governments had not initially shared the evidence underpinning their assessments that Iran had brought down the Ukrainian jet, though later a spokeswoman said that American officials had handed over more information.

    Ukrainian officials also analyzed the plane’s flight pattern on Friday and determined it had stayed within the normal corridor for flights out of Tehran’s Imam Khomeini International Airport, Ukraine’s foreign minister, Vadym Prystaiko, said at a news conference.

    State television in Iran aired footage that it said showed two black boxes recovered from the crash site. Processing their data could take more than a month, and the investigation could take up to two years, Hassan Rezaeifar, the head of the Iranian investigation team, said Friday.
    They admit that they did it, but continue to lie about why.
    Last edited by Gman; 01-11-2020 at 00:36.
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  5. #85
    Machine Gunner Circuits's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gman View Post
    Oh, really?
    They admit that they did it, but continue to lie about why.
    Denial ain't just a river in Africa.
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  6. #86
    Fleeing Idaho to get IKEA Bailey Guns's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gman View Post
    They admit that they did it, but continue to lie about why.
    Sounds like a lot of democrats...especially those named Clinton.
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  7. #87
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    Originally posted by CS1983 in the other thread, I recommend for anyone that wants a deeper understanding of the complexities over there:
    Fascinating article from 2013 on Soleimani.

    https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2...adow-commander

    Seems like he was a capable guy who had cut his teeth in a horrible war, and who was a rather worthy adversary.
    Seem's everyone in the US is an expert on middle eastern politics anymore, everywhere we go. Yet, many in the U.S. can't hardly place a single country on a map. The link posted by CS1983 is actually quite valuable. The ramifications of the killing are complex. No, we're obviously not going to war and we never were. Iran is not "ran" by idiots, of course they ran stories that they killed U.S. citizens to appease their populace without actually triggering the U.S. One likely ramification of the killing is the U.S. getting pushed out of Iraq - Mahdi was Soleimani & Iran's bitch, not ours, and he was selected by Soleimani. Iran is far more influential in Iraq than we ever were. Iraq is majority Shite, same as Iran. It at minimum, pushes Iraq far closer to Iran; at worst, we are getting booted out, which seems likely in the future. Iraq is already used to evade the Iranian sanctions, and the Quds are pretty much entirely funded through Iraq. Combined with the recent Syria drama, Iran is actually had a lot of "victories" in the middle east this year, and their regional influence is expanding significantly over the last few years, between Hezbollah, now the Kurds, and even deeper support in Iraq.

    People can mumble about "nuking them into glass" all they want, it's a fiction that won't happen. The reality is Iran either already has nuclear weapons, or will shortly; and nobody is going to do anything about it beyond the prior attempts to bide time. With their expanding influence, and their fragile economy, it makes the regional situation even more of a complicated, hot mess than it otherwise would have been.

    "What does it matter, let em' nuke each other into oblivion" - Take time to learn a bit about international politics before we have knee-jerk reactions either in support or against policy makers. No question, the guy deserved to die, however Iran's entrenched politics and state media are more mature than our own, and it seems they'll be able to get miles of capital and gains from his death; far more value than if he still breathed air. Time will tell what the implications are; I'm not going to join in the praise wagon because it's complicated. Trump himself didn't even know a single thing about Soleimani or the Quds in pre-election interviews, as he's not a reader I doubt he knew anything beyond a cursory briefing prior to ordering the hit.

    It won't be a war, it's not going to be a bunch of people killed, but it does seem to make Iran stronger politically; and won't deter them at all from continuing to f#$# with us in the middle east, especially through proxies. Considering all the implications, I have doubts the original decision was one made with wisdom.

    [PS: I am not a fan of Iran and view them as one of the biggest sponsors and influencers of terror and radical Islam - I was of an opinion back in the early 2000's that we should've invaded Iran, not Iraq....] However - I am also pragmatic, and live in the land of reality. I know we're not going to formally attack them, and they know it too.
    Last edited by FoxtArt; 01-11-2020 at 10:59.

  8. #88
    Ammocurious Rucker61's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by OxArt View Post
    Originally posted by CS1983 in the other thread, I recommend for anyone that wants a deeper understanding of the complexities over there:


    Seem's everyone in the US is an expert on middle eastern politics anymore, everywhere we go. Yet, many in the U.S. can't hardly place a single country on a map. The link posted by CS1983 is actually quite valuable. The ramifications of the killing are complex. No, we're obviously not going to war and we never were. Iran is not "ran" by idiots, of course they ran stories that they killed U.S. citizens to appease their populace without actually triggering the U.S. One likely ramification of the killing is the U.S. getting pushed out of Iraq - Mahdi was Soleimani & Iran's bitch, not ours, and he was selected by Soleimani. Iran is far more influential in Iraq than we ever were. Iraq is majority Shite, same as Iran. It at minimum, pushes Iraq far closer to Iran; at worst, we are getting booted out, which seems likely in the future. Iraq is already used to evade the Iranian sanctions, and the Quds are pretty much entirely funded through Iraq. Combined with the recent Syria drama, Iran is actually had a lot of "victories" in the middle east this year, and their regional influence is expanding significantly over the last few years, between Hezbollah, now the Kurds, and even deeper support in Iraq.

    People can mumble about "nuking them into glass" all they want, it's a fiction that won't happen. The reality is Iran either already has nuclear weapons, or will shortly; and nobody is going to do anything about it beyond the prior attempts to bide time. With their expanding influence, and their fragile economy, it makes the regional situation even more of a complicated, hot mess than it otherwise would have been.

    "What does it matter, let em' nuke each other into oblivion" - Take time to learn a bit about international politics before we have knee-jerk reactions either in support or against policy makers. No question, the guy deserved to die, however Iran's entrenched politics and state media are more mature than our own, and it seems they'll be able to get miles of capital and gains from his death; far more value than if he still breathed air. Time will tell what the implications are; I'm not going to join in the praise wagon because it's complicated. Trump himself didn't even know a single thing about Soleimani or the Quds in pre-election interviews, as he's not a reader I doubt he knew anything beyond a cursory briefing prior to ordering the hit.

    It won't be a war, it's not going to be a bunch of people killed, but it does seem to make Iran stronger politically; and won't deter them at all from continuing to f#$# with us in the middle east, especially through proxies. Considering all the implications, I have doubts the original decision was one made with wisdom.

    [PS: I am not a fan of Iran and view them as one of the biggest sponsors and influencers of terror and radical Islam - I was of an opinion back in the early 2000's that we should've invaded Iran, not Iraq....] However - I am also pragmatic, and live in the land of reality. I know we're not going to formally attack them, and they know it too.
    [applause]
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  9. #89
    At least my tag is unmolested
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    Those that repeat the reflexive belief that all "Arab" countries will unite against Isreal are decades out of date on the reality of the Middle East. Israel has good working alliances with many other countries in the Middle East, often covert, to protect each other from Iran. Reports exist of large scale military equipment sales as well as other cooperation with Saudi Arabia.
    Sayonara

  10. #90
    Keyboard Operation Specialist FoxtArt's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by spqrzilla View Post
    Those that repeat the reflexive belief that all "Arab" countries will unite against Isreal are decades out of date on the reality of the Middle East. Israel has good working alliances with many other countries in the Middle East, often covert, to protect each other from Iran. Reports exist of large scale military equipment sales as well as other cooperation with Saudi Arabia.
    That's not a belief that I carry, and it's as naive as most of the rest of the U.S. beliefs on the middle east. I wouldn't go so far as to say they (e.g. Saudi Arabian sect) are allied with Israel in the traditional sense, it is more from a political perspective of the "enemy of my enemy is my friend" as the differences held between some of the ethnic groups of Muslims is in many ways, filled with far more vitriol than their differences with Jews. And Iran is never going to "wipe Israel off the map". There will be an ongoing proxy war between Saudi Arabia and Iran for probably decades into the future unless some sort of major upheaval happens, and there will be an occasional proxy war between Isreal and Hezbolla for years into the future, as Isreal has it's hands cuffed and can't resolve the underlying issue. Iran has free license to do this proxy bullshit because nobody really wants to start a declared war - with serious implications I'm not droning on about here.

    But here's the thing....

    Iran might supply a nuke to Hezbolla many years in the future. The only thing holding them back is plausible deniability. If they can achieve that, they'd be likely to do it. The issue with Iran is they have figured out asymmetric warfare to achieve their goals. They'll never declare war on Isreal; but that doesn't stop them from trying to kill a million of them. Even then; a lot of the statements (wipe Isreal off the map) are political ones for state media to appease their populace; the leadership has got a strong pulse on the real politics of the region and may not actually mean it. Someday Ayatolla will croak, and if his replacement is young and dumb, it could seriously destabilize a lot of things, and that may be the only situation that leads to a declared war.

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