President Obama’s foreign policy is based on fantasy

[Irving]

So didn't Obama say some shit today about making a new state for Israel and Palastine? It sounded exactly like the cake example for compromise for gun control to me.

[GilpinGuy]

Russian pretty much supplies a shit-ton of energy (oil, natural gas) to much of Europe. I keep reading and hearing that this and that European country won't do shit because they get most of their energy from Russia.

Obama has hampered our oil and natural gas industry as much as he can. Perhaps if we were running at full capacity (Keystone Pipeline, etc.) we could be exporting more to these countries and they'd have more balls.

I'm no expert here, that's for sure, but this seems pretty elementary to me.

[Great-Kazoo]

US prepares $1B aid package for troubled Ukraine




http://news.yahoo.com/us-prepares-1b...-politics.html

[Mtn.man]

If you like your Ukraine,,, You can keep your Ukraine.

[Great-Kazoo]

If you like your Ukraine,,, You can keep your Ukraine.

PERIOD.

[ChunkyMonkey]

I think we agree there is no military option?

What economic hurt do you think we could influence on Russia?

Quick facts as I know them: the greatest net exporter of energy resources to Europe (The FRG and UK are already crying), a member of BRICS, and a trade surplus of $100B.

I'm sure removal from the G8 may sting a little, but unless there are some serious "House of Cards" dealings in the background, I don't think the US has enough political/economic clout left to make this truly hurt... I keep hearing "got you by the balls" in the background!

Your thoughts?

Not even economic punishment. The EU is too fractioned. If the good ol Nato nations can push for energy sanction as in dont buy Russians.. maybe. But the 80s or 90s are long gone. The Welfare dependant citizens of Europe wont allow it. And good ol USA don't want to corner the Russian to turn their back and go w/ China as energy partner. The Chinese is investing heavily in Africa, Asia, and Iraq/Iran to avoid energy dependant on Russia -- but for the right price, they'll give in. Putin knows this.

[Mick-Boy]

John Mauldin posted about the economics involved in the situation. It's long so I won't quote the whole thing but there are some interesting points to consider.

http://www.mauldineconomics.com/outs...ne-three-views

My view, Putin is stuck now, cannot easily de-escalate. Further escalation is a possibility, with Ukraine cracking along the obvious ethnic fault lines and the West reacting with measures such as sanctions and visa restrictions. Tit-for-tat follows; gas supplies to the EU are disrupted. Russian capital outflows accelerate and the RUB [ruble] quickly gets to 40/$, fuelling inflation and unnerving the Russian banking system, and also infecting the European banking system, in the manner that Chris Watling has envisaged. Meanwhile, the Chinese liabilities residing inside the European banking system are also in trouble, of course, and will continue to deteriorate. The CBR [Central Bank of Russia] hikes repeatedly with very little effect on slowing the RUB slide, further hurting GDP growth and economically sensitive segments of the market. The Russian RTX index revisits the GFC lows of 2008, Gazprom ADR's are already within shouting distance of their 2008 lows today. In such a scenario, there is an obvious risk of market contagion spreading throughout Eastern and Western Europe, and in fact the rest of the world. It is likely to resemble something on the order of the 1998 LTCM + RUB collapse + Asian financial crisis magnitude. In fact, a number of hedge funds will fail precisely because they have loaded up so heavily with European debt instruments which will unravel.

[Aloha_Shooter]

I liked K.T. McFarland's thesis in yesterday's FoxNews but Obama would never go for it as it would involve US energy production and other options he's ideologically blind to. At the end of the day, I think Obama would rather accept his own inadequacy and irrelevance (and then blame it on Bush or the GOP) than actually do what it takes to be useful and relevant to the issue. As it stands now, no one has made any case for US national security interests to even warrant the $1B in guarantees he proffered (and I suspect those will be taken then skimmed off by Putin and his allies to fund their own empires).

[<MADDOG>]

John Mauldin posted about the economics involved in the situation. It's long so I won't quote the whole thing but there are some interesting points to consider.

http://www.mauldineconomics.com/outs...ne-three-views

Interesting read.

I think another one:http://www.cfr.org/ukraine/respond-u...-crisis/p32522

[whitbaby]

Sure wished to hell we still had Petraeus and McChrystal back in the picture...and all the other great generals BHO purged from the military.
Yeah, I know Petraeus had a personal screw-up and the CIA feather-bedders didn't like his disciplined methods, but his experience, education and judgement were irreplaceable in this day and age.