Who beats who this November?

[cstone]

As the field narrows and we get closer to the conventions, I am just beginning to give some time to this election. I spent many years of my life working closely with politicians and don't care now to give them more of my time than I have to.

I don't normally care much for polls and polling data. Polling is an arcane and nuanced art form closer to alchemy in my mind than to an actual science. I truly subscribe to the notion that the only poll that counts is the one at the ballot box. With that said, I was interested in how the public at large is viewing the possible match ups in November. This site gives a convenient way to look at the possible match ups and see which candidates present the most interesting races:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...tial_race.html

This is certainly not a definitive source of information and should be taken with a grain of salt. My initial take away from various polls on possible outcomes is that those of us supporting conservative values, should be very happy that we are unlikely to see a Bernie Sanders candidacy, as he would likely be a difficult candidate for any GOP nominee to beat. On the other hand, it is also interesting to see that two of the three GOP possibles would beat the likely DNC candidate, HRC, while the GOP front runner, Donald Trump gets beat in a general election by either of the two DNC candidates.

As with every Presidential election, there is a great deal riding on the outcome. Every Presidential election "is the most important election in our lifetime" or so we are told every four years. This election will be no different than any other, in that the majority of voters will be less than happy with any outcome. Life will go on come January 2017. It will certainly change our nation, and depending on your perspective, that may be for the better or the worse, regardless of the outcome.

Be safe.

[Zundfolge]

Not sure who will win the elections, but I do believe that this is the year that the political class beats the people.

[Great-Kazoo]

We're in for a repeat of 68 Chicago during the R & D convention.
One thing for sure. Both the D's & R's are going to rig the convention. Granted the D's have a head start.

Come 1/17 AR's will start @ $2K for used. Granted the price gouge complainers will probably have their stuff listed as, WILLING TO PART OUT

[Bailey Guns]

The scariest thing about all those polls is how well Sanders does against any R candidate.

[Great-Kazoo]

That is why Trump is so popular. The public sees him as an alternative to the usual 2 party system of shitty candidates, and they want something different.

There will be people from all walks of life who vote T. There will also be people from the R side who pull the lever for a D, come 11/16. Be it because the D has a vagina OR giving shit away promises . OR a dislike of T

[davsel]

Has no one payed attention to the turnout numbers for the various campaign rallies and primaries?
Republican turnout is breaking all records. Dem turnout is way behind their historic average.

Trump is going to win in a landslide against whomever the Dems put up.

The polls are all over the board. For every poll showing Trump losing, I'll show you one for Trump dominating.
Look at the turnout for the rallies and be thankful the silent majority has had enough and is engaged this season.

ETA: Scott Baio just recently endorsed Trump - Game over! Trump wins!

[sroz]

Has no one payed attention to the turnout numbers for the various campaign rallies and primaries?
Republican turnout is breaking all records. Dem turnout is way behind their historic average.

Trump is going to win in a landslide against whomever the Dems put up.

The polls are all over the board. For every poll showing Trump losing, I'll show you one for Trump dominating.
Look at the turnout for the rallies and be thankful the silent majority has had enough and is engaged this season.

ETA: Scott Baio just recently endorsed Trump - Game over! Trump wins!

Have you heard how many Dems are crossing over to vote for trump? I don't know the numbers, but apparently it's enuf to affect the outcome in close, contested states. Any concern they are gaming the system to pick Hillary's competition?

[davsel]

Have you heard how many Dems are crossing over to vote for trump? I don't know the numbers, but apparently it's enuf to affect the outcome in close, contested states. Any concern they are gaming the system to pick Hillary's competition?

No concern here. I believe most Dems who cross over are in favor of Trump over Hillary, and also enjoy poking the GOPe. Hillary has the support of the Dem elite, not the Dem populous.
The GOPe candidate supporters are the ones trying to screw Trump by crossing over and pooling their votes for state specific GOPe candidates.

[Aloha_Shooter]

No concern here. I believe most Dems who cross over are in favor of Trump over Hillary, and also enjoy poking the GOPe. Hillary has the support of the Dem elite, not the Dem populous. The GOPe candidate supporters are the ones trying to screw Trump by crossing over and pooling their votes for state specific GOPe candidates.

I agree Hillary has the support of Dem elite and that the Rockefeller Republicans are trying to do anything they can to stop Trump, much as the establishment tried to freeze young TR. However, I think you underestimate the level of dirty tricks being played in the crossover votes. I'm certain there is an underground effort trying to undermine and destroy the GOP by either taking over the party from within the way Obama took over the Dems or by creating an inner revolt as the cipher loses.
I don't believe Trump is even moderately conservative. On the other hand, he is hugely self-interested and despite being somewhat authoritarian in his approach, he's far less totalitarian than Hillary or Bernie would be. I don't want him as the nominee but I will support him if he gets the nod just as I supported W and his father, and I will hope we can beat off the numbskulls trying to destroy the GOP from within (that includes both establishment and crossovers).

[Irving]

Trump is like the GOP's Obama, even though the GOP may not even want him.

Meaning that people are excited to vote for him because he's not the next in line of career politicians, regardless of if he should actually get the job or not.