Who beats who this November?

[cstone]

As the field narrows and we get closer to the conventions, I am just beginning to give some time to this election. I spent many years of my life working closely with politicians and don't care now to give them more of my time than I have to.

I don't normally care much for polls and polling data. Polling is an arcane and nuanced art form closer to alchemy in my mind than to an actual science. I truly subscribe to the notion that the only poll that counts is the one at the ballot box. With that said, I was interested in how the public at large is viewing the possible match ups in November. This site gives a convenient way to look at the possible match ups and see which candidates present the most interesting races:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...tial_race.html

This is certainly not a definitive source of information and should be taken with a grain of salt. My initial take away from various polls on possible outcomes is that those of us supporting conservative values, should be very happy that we are unlikely to see a Bernie Sanders candidacy, as he would likely be a difficult candidate for any GOP nominee to beat. On the other hand, it is also interesting to see that two of the three GOP possibles would beat the likely DNC candidate, HRC, while the GOP front runner, Donald Trump gets beat in a general election by either of the two DNC candidates.

As with every Presidential election, there is a great deal riding on the outcome. Every Presidential election "is the most important election in our lifetime" or so we are told every four years. This election will be no different than any other, in that the majority of voters will be less than happy with any outcome. Life will go on come January 2017. It will certainly change our nation, and depending on your perspective, that may be for the better or the worse, regardless of the outcome.

Be safe.

[Zundfolge]

Not sure who will win the elections, but I do believe that this is the year that the political class beats the people.

[Great-Kazoo]

We're in for a repeat of 68 Chicago during the R & D convention.
One thing for sure. Both the D's & R's are going to rig the convention. Granted the D's have a head start.

Come 1/17 AR's will start @ $2K for used. Granted the price gouge complainers will probably have their stuff listed as, WILLING TO PART OUT

[Bailey Guns]

The scariest thing about all those polls is how well Sanders does against any R candidate.

[GilpinGuy]

Sadly, my prediction is that Clinton tramples Trump in a Reagen-esque victory. I don't like it, but that's my prediction. This assumes the Republican head honchos don't pull some shenanigans if Trump gets a majority of delegates and he is the nominee.

Bernie vs. Trump would be a different story. I just can't see a majority of Americans voting for an open Socialist. The Bern has fizzled though. He's done.

Edit: I recently heard an interview that Rosen had a few weeks ago with Philip Klein, the Managing Editor of the Washington Examiner (solid right publication). He predicted a possible 50 state win for Clinton if it's her vs. Trump.

I learned my lesson after 2012 though and don't have much faith in these "expert analysts" anymore, but jeeeez. If that happened, a 50 state win, we are officially done as a great country and become a country of great sloths.

[Great-Kazoo]

Sadly, my prediction is that Clinton tramples Trump in a Reagen-esque victory. I don't like it, but that's my prediction. This assumes the Republican head honchos don't pull some shenanigans if Trump gets a majority of delegates and he is the nominee.

Bernie vs. Trump would be a different story. I just can't see a majority of Americans voting for an open Socialist. The Bern has fizzled though. He's done.

Edit: I recently heard an interview that Rosen had a few weeks ago with Philip Klein, the Managing Editor of the Washington Examiner (solid right publication). He predicted a possible 50 state win for Clinton if it's her vs. Trump.

I learned my lesson after 2012 though and don't have much faith in these "expert analysts" anymore, but jeeeez. If that happened, a 50 state win, we are officially done as a great country and become a country of great sloths.

Yo Rip Van Winkle, you just wake up? Entitlement won over empowerment. Deserves won over Earned. It's been toast for some time.

[Grant H.]

Sadly, my prediction is that Clinton tramples Trump in a Reagen-esque victory. I don't like it, but that's my prediction. This assumes the Republican head honchos don't pull some shenanigans if Trump gets a majority of delegates and he is the nominee.

Bernie vs. Trump would be a different story. I just can't see a majority of Americans voting for an open Socialist. The Bern has fizzled though. He's done.

Edit: I recently heard an interview that Rosen had a few weeks ago with Philip Klein, the Managing Editor of the Washington Examiner (solid right publication). He predicted a possible 50 state win for Clinton if it's her vs. Trump.

I learned my lesson after 2012 though and don't have much faith in these "expert analysts" anymore, but jeeeez. If that happened, a 50 state win, we are officially done as a great country and become a country of great sloths.

Hillary won't carry 50 states, not even against Trump. Especially since if Hillary gets the nomination, I suspect Bernie will run as an independent and split the Dem vote.

There is a lot of the press world that still doesn't understand why Trump is so popular. They are all hooked on this idea that he is only popular with "authoritarians", which there may be some truth to, but that's not the whole story. The American populace is fed up with the usual politicians whether R, D, L, or otherwise. That is why Trump is so popular. The public sees him as an alternative to the usual 2 party system of shitty candidates, and they want something different.

[Zundfolge]

Hillary won't carry 50 states, not even against Trump.

If Hillary wins against Trump it'll be a squeaker. Down to the wire ... shades of 2000 with recounts and lawsuits and protests (probably more violence though).

...if Hillary gets the nomination, I suspect Bernie will run as an independent and split the Dem vote.

From your lips to God's ear brother.


As for Trump vs Bernie, I think Bernie beats Trump more handily than Hillary would. Low information people like Bearnie because they think he's honest.

[Great-Kazoo]

That is why Trump is so popular. The public sees him as an alternative to the usual 2 party system of shitty candidates, and they want something different.

There will be people from all walks of life who vote T. There will also be people from the R side who pull the lever for a D, come 11/16. Be it because the D has a vagina OR giving shit away promises . OR a dislike of T

[davsel]

Has no one payed attention to the turnout numbers for the various campaign rallies and primaries?
Republican turnout is breaking all records. Dem turnout is way behind their historic average.

Trump is going to win in a landslide against whomever the Dems put up.

The polls are all over the board. For every poll showing Trump losing, I'll show you one for Trump dominating.
Look at the turnout for the rallies and be thankful the silent majority has had enough and is engaged this season.

ETA: Scott Baio just recently endorsed Trump - Game over! Trump wins!