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  1. #1
    Rebuilt from Salvage TFOGGER's Avatar
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    Default Zombies would wipe out the humans within 100 days

    http://www.livescience.com/57407-zom...-100-days.html

    The zombie apocalypse won't take long.A new article in a peer-reviewed student journal finds that the zombie hordes would take Earth's population down to a mere 273 survivors in 100 days.
    The paper, published in the University of Leicester's Journal of Physics Special Topics, was a fanciful use of the so-called SIR model, which is used in epidemiology to simulate how diseases spread over time. It's not the first time zombies have been used as a public health metaphor. In December 2015, for example, the British medical journal The Lancet published a tongue-in-cheek paper titled "Zombie infections: epidemiology, treatment, and prevention." And a viral blog post from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention urged zombie-apocalypse preparations as a a metaphor for real-life disaster preparedness.
    In the new analysis, the University of Leicester undergraduates assumed that each zombie would have 90 percent success at finding and infecting one human per day — a rate that would make the zombie virus twice as contagious as the Black Death, the plague that devastated Europe in the 1300s.
    Light a fire for a man, and he'll be warm for a day, light a man on fire, and he'll be warm for the rest of his life...

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  2. #2
    Grand Master Know It All 68Charger's Avatar
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    I think they're missing the real metaphor many of us use "zombies" for...
    ΜΟΛΩΝ ΛΑΒΕ, we are the III%, CIP2, and some other catchphrase meant to aggravate progreSSives who are hell bent on taking rights away...

  3. #3
    QUITTER Irving's Avatar
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    Zombie Apocalypse? You mean man-made population change.

  4. #4
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    Quote Originally Posted by Irving View Post
    Zombie Apocalypse? You mean man-made population change.


    Thread winner!
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  5. #5
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  6. #6
    BANNED....or not? Skip's Avatar
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    How long do all those Zombies "live?" Couldn't we just hike up into the hills where their muscle and tissues freeze?

    each zombie would have 90 percent success at finding and infecting one human per day
    That won't be constant. As time progresses the rates will drop. Those left will be the most difficult to infect.

  7. #7
    Grand Master Know It All 68Charger's Avatar
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    Their model is just crap.... I think Irving is right, these are the same people behind the "climate change" models and the model is crap

    at the end of the article:

    In a follow-up paper, the students did just that. They extended the zombie life span to one year in order to up the challenge a bit, but also gave each human a 10 percent chance of killing a zombie each day. They also accounted for human reproduction, assuming reproductive-age women would be able to have a baby once every three years.

    These assumptions provided some hope for humanity. Under this model, the human population rapidly dropped off to a few hundred again. However, the zombies died off after 1,000 days, under this model; 10,000 days after the beginning of the epidemic, the human population would start to recover again, the students found.
    But assuming a constant chance of infection? these people are just bored and need a better hobby.
    ΜΟΛΩΝ ΛΑΒΕ, we are the III%, CIP2, and some other catchphrase meant to aggravate progreSSives who are hell bent on taking rights away...

  8. #8
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    Also
    "We have also not included the possibility for the humans to kill the zombies," they wrote.
    Total hogwash

  9. #9
    Thinks Gravy Boats are SEXY ASF! izzy's Avatar
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    Just read the 10% chance of killing a zombie portion. I stand by my feelings of hogwash.

  10. #10
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    The residual risk of infection depends on how/if the virus could survive without a host. I think you're right, this is not science per se, it's more of a thought experiment and an exercise in epidemiology.
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    Light a fire for a man, and he'll be warm for a day, light a man on fire, and he'll be warm for the rest of his life...

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