The new prime will have to strike a balance between controlling costs and capturing key/critical talent. If there is not key/critical talent (e.g., anyone can swing a pickaxe or empty a trash bin), then controlling costs is the strongest factor and they would be less inclined to offer you the new pay raise. If you are somewhat unique and offer value that other potential employees don't then capture rate is the strongest factor and they'll likely offer you the raised salary (and perhaps more) to keep you in place and look somewhere else to control costs. From what you've described, I'd take the X+Y now and use that as the starting point of any negotiations with the new prime. There is always room to jump to another company later if you don't like the new circumstances, just avoid any non-compete clauses ... ;-)