2018 Post-Election Survey of Colorado?s Unaffiliated Voters

[Skip]

http://magellanstrategies.com/magell...liated-voters/

Lots of interesting stuff in here that seems to explain how/why the state is changing so much.

First consider that CO has a nearly identical number of Dems and Reps actively registered and Dem turnout was slightly higher. It would seem that some Reps just didn't want to support their party or were unenthusiastic.

(http://www.sos.state.co.us/pubs/elec...artyStatus.pdf)

• For the first time ever in a Colorado mid-term election, unaffiliated voter turnout (893,436) and Democratic voter turnout (822,230) was higher than Republican turnout (803,143), and by a significant margin. In the 2014 mid-term election, Republican voter turnout was 774,923, Democratic voter turnout was 664,532 and unaffiliated voter turnout was 634,296.

And of course, those highly coveted UAFs who have decided every election for this state in my lifetime crushed them both. They are no longer independents in the traditional sense. They have now flipped from 61% wanting less gov to 51% wanting more gov in two years!

• A majority of unaffiliated voters, 51%, want the government to do more to solve the country?s problems, while 34% think the government is doing too much. This is a significant change of opinion compared to unaffiliated voters who voted in the 2016 election, where 61% thought the government was doing too much and only 26% thought the government should do more.

Add in this...

• The Democrat Party has a net positive image rating among unaffiliated voters, with 45% having a favorable opinion of the party and 31% an unfavorable opinion. The Republican Party has a net negative image rating, with only 25% of respondents having a favorable opinion of the party and 53% having an unfavorable opinion.

And look at Polis's support/issues...

• Unaffiliated voters supported Jared Polis because of his positions on education, healthcare and the environment. They also liked his business background and viewed him to be a more competent and qualified candidate compared to Walker Stapleton. Reasons some unaffiliated voters opposed Jared Polis were fears that he would raise taxes, increase government spending, and would be hostile to the oil and gas industry.

These aren't independent positions, they are Leftist positions.

Second part is what I'd expect but doesn't override the first part (education, healthcare, environment = higher taxes).

So... Could it be Colorado "independents" as a voting block are now too far left of the Dem party to register as such?

If I had to guess on what's flipped attitudes on overall level of government, I would point to two things based on people I've spoken to...

1. Housing - people move here, young people move out, and they simply can't afford to get by. "Wages haven't kept up with costs." Or is it costs haven't been controlled by wages?

They lack the sophistication to understand this is a symptom of more government ("bailouts" [cash and discount lending] to keep housing from correcting, higher taxes/cost of living, "affordable housing," Denver city development deals, etc...) and look for help in more gov.

Sense of entitlement is strong on this one.

2. Healthcare - as I've said, this is getting so ridiculous it's going full Commie. I can't really see a sense of entitlement when so much of payer costs are going to non-payers.


If the GOP at the local or state level can't address these two things, they are not just going to be a minority party but the country will shift hard to the left. People don't give up freedom for collectivism in times of prosperity, they tend to do so because of real/perceived hardships that capitalism can't seem to solve.

The state GOP has also done a very bad job on basic messaging. For example, we have state income tax, high sales tax, property taxes, gas taxes (roads), and special taxes. And the voters rejected more taxes in referenda!!! So the voters (Dems and UAF) get it on some level, yet the big gov candidate won.

[davsel]

[avandelay]

Perhaps we need some long, cold winters with lots of snow.

[GeorgeandSugar]

Good post. I actually think it is a conflict of visions. These UAF are conflicted. Asking or wanting government to do more in our lives is exactly why we have the problems we have in healthcare, education and the environment issue is a dog whistle (climate change?).

They claim more government, but government is dependent on higher taxes and we, the people giving up our liberties and freedoms for supposedly more security or a perceived better government. I doubt it. All the tax and bond proposals were rejected. Cannot have both: more government with more taxes.

Repeatedly, the solution to healthcare and education is more government, more taxes, more expansive government and less choice. More choice, more competition and LESS government intervention would begin the process of creating new opportunities and innovation.

Frankly, I think our electorate is naive, ignorant and some plain stupid and uninformed as to how capitalism works. Thanks to our schools, the indoctrination and the repeated socialist narrative everywhere you turn. Free is over taking work, and sound bits are overcoming critical thinking and personal responsibility, hard work and accountability.

This paragraph should concern all who value our countries future. A generic Democrat just means miserably that these UAF don't see nor understand.

"A 2020 Presidential ballot test finds 55% of unaffiliated voters supporting the ?generic? Democratic candidate, 23% supporting Donald Trump, 4% supporting an ?other? candidate and 17% were undecided."


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[avandelay]

We need candidates that we can get behind. 71% of registered Rs voted? How hard is it to fill out the ballot and hit the mailbox or drop box? We also need to overcome the deluge of intentionally negative press and the image that we don't care about education and the environment. The image that Rs want dirty water, dirty air, etc has got to be shown to be false. We care about education, we just want the respective districts to first be responsible with the budget dollars then talk about more $$$. The Colo R infrastructure needs to fight back instead of saying 'huh, okay' when the Polis commercial calls Polis a 'budget hawk' when he was all for socialized medicine in Colo which alone would at least quadruple the existing budget (and what we had already voted down). The R party in Colo has done a poor job of selling itself w/in the state and it shows.

[Skip]

[snip]

I actually think it is a conflict of visions. These UAF are conflicted. Asking or wanting government to do more in our lives is exactly why we have the problems we have in healthcare, education and the environment issue is a dog whistle (climate change?).

Agree. And I think shows that UAF are "in transition."

I respect the "old school" CO independent who were educated/smart and free thinking. But the desire to increase gov shows these are actually dependents more than independents and they seem to be closely aligned with the Dems as a bloc.

Frankly, I think our electorate is naive, ignorant and some plain stupid and uninformed as to how capitalism works. Thanks to our schools, the indoctrination and the repeated socialist narrative everywhere you turn. Free is over taking work, and sound bits are overcoming critical thinking and personal responsibility, hard work and accountability.

This paragraph should concern all who value our countries future. A generic Democrat just means miserably that these UAF don't see nor understand.

"A 2020 Presidential ballot test finds 55% of unaffiliated voters supporting the ?generic? Democratic candidate, 23% supporting Donald Trump, 4% supporting an ?other? candidate and 17% were undecided."

Yup! We need to do better about general education (not getting it in government schools) and messaging. We also need to start running down-to-earth GOP candidates that relate to the folks. I was a lot more excited about Lopez than Stapleton for this exact reason.

A big talking point could have been (and still could be) how tough it's going to be to pay for more gov while the gov isn't helping people in these areas. There are lots of promises but very little delivery.

Illegal immigration can be framed in this way too... Why is CO spending so much on illegals instead of helping actual citizens?

[snip]

The Colo R infrastructure needs to fight back instead of saying 'huh, okay' when the Polis commercial calls Polis a 'budget hawk' when he was all for socialized medicine in Colo which alone would at least quadruple the existing budget (and what we had already voted down). The R party in Colo has done a poor job of selling itself w/in the state and it shows.

It's coming!

The folks are saying they want to go Commie but don't want to pay for it. That means more debt.

And they are holding us healthcare payers hostage with sky high premiums picking up the tab for non-payers. I sense a lot of person and collective fatigue on this issue.

[Gman]

How did they miss the changes in primary candidate selection? That took away any requirement for specific party affiliation.

The CO Republican party is a total mess. Could be that more unaffiliated voters showed up....because they used to be registered Republicans. I changed my affiliation in the hopes that the CO GOP would wake the hell up. Apparently that messaging was not acknowledged.

[Jeffrey Lebowski]

How did they miss the changes in primary candidate selection? That took away any requirement for specific party affiliation.

The CO Republican party is a total mess. Could be that more unaffiliated voters showed up....because they used to be registered Republicans. I changed my affiliation in the hopes that the CO GOP would wake the hell up. Apparently that messaging was not acknowledged.

I’m sort of wondering if we should all register as Democrats and try to change that from within, much the way Georgia did in decades past.
If people are so stupid as to only look for the letter after the name, we could get some solid conservative D’s to the right of the current GOP. At the very least, mess with their primaries since ours are absolutely meaningless.

[XJ]

The Colorado Republican party wants to lose elections, it is obvious.

[Skip]

Well, this the same brain trust that insisted we still vote for Maes after he was outed for campaign issues/corruption and had zero chance of winning.