Inconsistencies in ammo pricing from various sources

[colorider]

Based on what was said earlier, replacement value would be unobtonium. Manufacturers are not even taking 2021 orders. So the replacement costs may one Beeeeeeeeeeelion dollars. LOL.

[MrPrena]

Based on what was said earlier, replacement value would be unobtonium. Manufacturers are not even taking 2021 orders. So the replacement costs may one Beeeeeeeeeeelion dollars. LOL.

LOL. those Duopolies would be having a field day. They probably raised price in terms of wholesale/manuf price, and not many will complaint about it.


In non-international economics, we will be panicking. As I stated about 6mo back, we should have starting importing MORE ammo to avoid this.

[Martinjmpr]

Isn't this a self-correcting problem though?

I mean, as long as people are paying outrageous prices I don't see why the stores should stop charging it. Ammo is a "want" not a "need" so if you don't like the price you don't have to buy. If that curtails your recreational shooting, then so be it.

Gun ranges that lost business due to COVID closures who then thought they might make up some lost revenue by jacking up ammo prices haven't realized that they're cutting their own throats (although maybe "shooting themselves in the foot" would be a better metaphor.)

So, serious question: How many of y'all are actually BUYING ammo vs. just looking at the exorbitant prices, shaking your head and moving on? Seems to me that SOMEBODY is paying crazy prices, otherwise you'd expect to see the store shelves stocked with overpriced ammo gathering dust.

[MrPrena]

Isn't this a self-correcting problem though?

I mean, as long as people are paying outrageous prices I don't see why the stores should stop charging it. Ammo is a "want" not a "need" so if you don't like the price you don't have to buy. If that curtails your recreational shooting, then so be it.

Gun ranges that lost business due to COVID closures who then thought they might make up some lost revenue by jacking up ammo prices haven't realized that they're cutting their own throats (although maybe "shooting themselves in the foot" would be a better metaphor.)

So, serious question: How many of y'all are actually BUYING ammo vs. just looking at the exorbitant prices, shaking your head and moving on? Seems to me that SOMEBODY is paying crazy prices, otherwise you'd expect to see the store shelves stocked with overpriced ammo gathering dust.

Oh yeah. People here most likely deal with this issue at least once.
I am sure most are stocked, but probably not enough to get into range as often or compete as often.

Price will probably drop temporarly from hoarders unloading it on the market. Then it will increase a little and stabilize.

Almost same equation as fundamental physics swinging door with certaain % of critical dampage.

Only difference is that I think when it stabilize later , I believe we will see 15% ish or more price increase from 2019 prices. (Material, 2 manufacturers, crazy inflations)



Similar to graph above.
(Funny I am comparing a phys equn for a market)
https://instruct.math.lsa.umich.edu/...a216/docs/3_3/

[Martinjmpr]

I am sure most are stocked, but probably not enough to get into range as often or compete as often.

Right, which is what makes me wonder if the high price of ammo is causing "downstream" effects of people shooting less which in turn means they may be less likely to buy more guns, holsters, accessories, etc.

Or even more significantly, some shooters may decide that shooting is too expensive a hobby and find some other way to occupy their time.

I think one of the things that prolongs these kinds of price surges is the fact that everyone's "must buy" price is different.

So let's say, for example, that some desirable caliber of ammo gathers dust on the shelf at $0.30/round. For all we know, there may be a bunch of shooters who, when it drops to $0.22/round, will say "OMG I HAVE TO STOCK UP!" and buy up existing stocks which creates demand and prices jump back up to $0.30. Repeat again and again each time prices drop just a little and you can see why these cycles can last so long.

For me at least, as far as .22lr goes, my "Must buy" price is usually around $0.07/round ($3.50/box of 50 or $35.00 for a brick of 500.) Even though I'm old enough to remember the days (they weren't that long ago) when .22lr was "penny a pop" (I have one or two bricks I bought in North Carolina in the 90's that have $5.50 price tags.)

Price will probably drop temporarily from hoarders unloading it on the market.

But if the "hoarders" overpaid they'll be unlikely to want to sell it for less than what they paid. I would guess that unless they are dead broke and desperate, they would prefer to hang onto the ammo they have in the assumption that if they wait long enough it will go up in price. This, in turn, keeps it off the market which keeps prices high.

[Martinjmpr]

So the more I think about this the more the question occurs to me: I see a lot of ammo being advertised for various high prices, but I wonder how much is actually selling?

Like right now I'm on GB and I'm seeing, for example, 9mm FMJ going for ~$40 for a box of 50

Now I'll admit to being a cheap ass, but there's no way in hell I'd pay that much for FMJ.

(I tend to compare ammo prices "by the box" just because I can generally remember what I paid "per box" for various ammo and it's easier doing a "price per box" than a cents-per-round comparison in my head.)

And I'm seeing steel-cased, non-reloadable Wolf and Tula ammo going for more than $25/box. This is ammo that a few years ago was available on the shelf at Wally World for around $8 - $9. And 9mm "range ammo" (brass case, reloadable FMJ or LRN) was generally $11 - $15/box just a few years ago as well. It was rare to see 9mm for more than $20/box, usually for that price you were getting some nice HP ammo.

So I'll ask the group: Are you all actually BUYING at these prices? Or are most of you just biding your time and waiting for prices to come back down?

I'm not but maybe I'm the outlier?

[00tec]

Tula .223 was $4.97 or $5.97 at most Walmarts for a long time (before they stopped selling it.

I have a bunch of 45acp ball that I could unload, but I don't want to be that asshole that charged too much, nor do I want to lowball myself. Cheapest price on ammoseek is $.64 for Tula. I have brass and aluminum

[MrPrena]

So the more I think about this the more the question occurs to me: I see a lot of ammo being advertised for various high prices, but I wonder how much is actually selling?

Like right now I'm on GB and I'm seeing, for example, 9mm FMJ going for ~$40 for a box of 50

Now I'll admit to being a cheap ass, but there's no way in hell I'd pay that much for FMJ.

(I tend to compare ammo prices "by the box" just because I can generally remember what I paid "per box" for various ammo and it's easier doing a "price per box" than a cents-per-round comparison in my head.)

And I'm seeing steel-cased, non-reloadable Wolf and Tula ammo going for more than $25/box. This is ammo that a few years ago was available on the shelf at Wally World for around $8 - $9. And 9mm "range ammo" (brass case, reloadable FMJ or LRN) was generally $11 - $15/box just a few years ago as well. It was rare to see 9mm for more than $20/box, usually for that price you were getting some nice HP ammo.

So I'll ask the group: Are you all actually BUYING at these prices? Or are most of you just biding your time and waiting for prices to come back down?

I'm not but maybe I'm the outlier?

All we can do is speculate and guess most of variables by comparing to the past market data.
Only difference is that there seem to be much more new buyers than 2008. I've seen many new buyer surge that time, but 2020 is probably significantly more new buyer.
That being said I think the drop in price might not be as heavy as 2008, 2012.

As for me, I ve sold more stuff this year than a purchase.
Oh. Although I am kinda thin on ammo, there is no way I would buy at this price. I will just wait.

Last shooting session, I've shot many 243win and other not as popular self defense rounds which still have many available on store shelves.

[Martinjmpr]

but 2020 is probably significantly more new buyer.

Ah, that's a good point. New buyers may be more willing to pay higher prices just because they don't know that $25 for a box of cheap, steel-cased Tula is an egregious rip-off. To them it may just be the cost of ammo. Also, if they are buying guns because they're panicking about Covid or riots or zombies or whatever, they likely don't worry about price because they're probably only buying a couple of boxes anyway.

Oh. Although I am kinda thin on ammo, there is no way I would buy at this price. I will just wait.

Last shooting session, I've shot many 243win and other not as popular self defense rounds which still have many available on store shelves.

During the post-Sandy Hook ammo panic of 2013, I noticed that while the "common" calibers (.223, 9mm, .45ACP, .308) were scarce and expensive, the less common calibers were readily available. Even 7.62x39 was reasonably available and not terribly expensive.

[.455_Hunter]

I have not bought anything at more than mild price jump ($2-3).