Thoughts about Ukraine?

[Duman]

When every corporate press outlet, the cast of SNL, and even George Soros are telling me we need to "do something" to help Ukraine, doing absolutely nothing suddenly seems like the right answer.

That's an interesting take, good point.

[O2HeN2]

When every corporate press outlet, the cast of SNL, and even George Soros are telling me we need to "do something" to help Ukraine, doing absolutely nothing suddenly seems like the right answer.

Don't fall into leftist thinking. "If they're for it, I'm against it" is the position they took for four years.

It is possible for both sides to agree on some things. Just not a lot of things.
I think this is one of those rare circumstances.

Another way to put it...

I recently saw the quote that "Republicans think democrats are people, with bad ideas. Democrats think republicans are bad people, with ideas."

The former allows evaluation of the merit of the ideas. The latter requires you to reflexively disagree with everything the other side believes in.

O2

[RblDiver]

Brave, marching unarmed towards soldiers shooting just above your head. https://twitter.com/lapatina_/status...kFu9X_LrA&s=19

[FoxtArt]

What would be mildly amusing (and equal parts terrifying) is if we employed some of the same bluffs that Russia did albeit with a stronger POTUS.

E.g. high end mocks ups of new deployed chemical laser ICBM and cruise missile interceptors. Published information on all the Russian cities we are actively targeting with nukes. A cavalier attitude with moves going forward of "Oh yeah Pootie? Well you go ahead and declare war like you promised, you go ahead and launch your decrepit shit, cause we just called your bluff and we're immune to it. Too bad the KGB didn't warn you. Or do you like Russia existing? We're fully defended from you. But we'll still launch everything if you want us to."

At least 50/50 that bluff would work, or in the alternative, some chance the world would get very hot and loud for a day.

In any event, I think Putin is 90% bluff and intends to use the threat of nukes to keep pushing forth territory-expanding wars, except Ukraine has been kicking butt, so he might have to save face with a draw at some point soon. I don't think Russia would ACTUALLY use a nuke first, except possibly on Ukraine if they were 95% sure the world would do nothing. Much of politics is bluffing and instead of playing the game we just announce we won't do shit. This is why it is important to have leaders that make threats, but also have a perception they will keep them. (E.g. if we made it clear that if Russia deploys a nuke against any sovereign nation we'll light them up with a thousand). Would Putin do it if he thought we were serious? F. No.

[FromMyColdDeadHand]

Either the Russians are holding back their best or they are really crappy.

https://rusi.org/explore-our-researc...air-operations

If they can't take over Ukraine, there is no way that they could take Poland. Frankly, looking at the progress of the Russian troops so far, if I were Putin, I'd be worried that even a feeble NATO could actually march on the Kremlin if it wanted to.

The other scenario is that they are holding back their best and any troops to take over the Baltic states. Where are all the Russian wonder weapons? This is 1980s Tom Clancy vintage stuff. Red Storm Rising era tactics and gear.

What a frickin' mess. Imagine being a Russian soldier, sitting still for what, four days now, on the road to Kyiv? As snipers ping crap all around?

[hollohas]

I don't think Russia's army is as big and bad as the world has assumed for the last few decades. They have tons of barely trained men and tons of mediocre equipment, that's all they have going for them. But they can't even keep their equipment fueled.

Truly, I don't think they have any clue what they're doing. How many pictures have we seen of long convoys just setting still for hours? Keeping convoys moving is just basic stuff.

They are getting beat in the ground war so they've resorted to just bombing cities WWII style. Russia's strategy seems to be wreck it all and destroy Ukrainian morale. Tactics be damned.

[OldFogey]

Interesting article regarding russian army logistics :
https://warontherocks.com/2021/11/fe...rmy-logistics/
About the column :
Observers with more knowledge than I say that due to the tire problem (it seems the russians were slack maintenance-wise. Wheeled vehicles need to be moved once a month to prevent tire rot from continued sun exposure and the low-pressure tire inflation system needs to be run to make sure no insects have moved in and made nests and other blockages) the wheeled vehicles can't leave the roads or they risk getting stuck in the mud. They lost some intact air defense assets (like a pantsir) that could allow their ad network to be compromised. This may explain the russian air force being hamstrung and not establishing air superiority. The russian column appears to be in difficulty (perhaps hosed). They are in the 8th day of a 3 day deployment. They sure can't seem to disperse due to the mud on either side of the road. The ukrainians have also released water from reservoirs in the vicinity of the column to exacerbate the muddy conditions. It will be interesting to see what becomes of the column.

[hollohas]

The Ukrainians sure seem to be using some interesting guerilla tactics. Flooding the area? Brilliant.

[BPTactical]

[BushMasterBoy]

Oil just went to $127 barrel. $5 gas is coming.