Thoughts about Ukraine?

[Martinjmpr]

Even if they did, based on what we're seeing in Ukraine 95% of their ICBMs would either have failed cores, failed propellant, or get lost in the Atlantic ocean.

The other thing is, in our minds we sort of have this cartoon-ish picture of a desk with a big red button on it and when the dictator presses the button, all the missiles are launched.

But it doesn't really work that way. Putin (or Biden, for that matter) can give orders but those orders still have to be carried out by real, flesh-and-blood human beings. So the question is not "will Putin order missiles to be launched", because whether he does or not, the real question is "will the soldiers, sailors and airmen who receive those orders, carry them out if they know it means they and their own families will likely be annihilated?"

EDITED TO ADD: Although Putin has of course surrounded himself with loyal "yes men" (like all dictators do), it would not be tough to imagine that if he went full General Jack D. Ripper, those flunkies might decide that Putin needs a "vacation."