Thoughts about Ukraine?

[FoxtArt]

Anti-satellite warfare is a distinct asymmetric possibility. We know they can do it. They have the missile technology.

I don't think our response would be significant nobody wants a graveyard in low earth orbit and we don't want to go to war over that either... But, Russia could not be absolutely assured as to what our response would be.

[BushMasterBoy]

Pravda is the government owned press of Russia. They publish some crazy stuff. Below is a link from 14JAN22.

https://english.pravda.ru/news/world...ian_submarine/

[Zundfolge]

Anti-satellite warfare is a distinct asymmetric possibility. We know they can do it. They have the missile technology.

I don't think our response would be significant nobody wants a graveyard in low earth orbit and we don't want to go to war over that either... But, Russia could not be absolutely assured as to what our response would be.

That would come at a pretty big cost ... like keeping us earthbound for a few extra centuries (go look up "Kessler Cascade").

[OtterbatHellcat]

I hope Ukraine shoves a stick up Russias ass and can make it through this, however unlikely.

"Hey, should I tell them to go fuck themselves ?"........that was freaking awesome.

Let's hope this isn't a precursor to WWIII, seems it could easily become so.

[BushMasterBoy]

I'm not saying it is going to happen, but I don't like the timing of Putin's timing of the invasion of Ukraine. Secretary Perry was concerned we could blunder into a nuclear war.

[hollohas]

This whole thing is weird.

Did Putin and his Generals really underestimate Ukraine this bad? I mean, everyone thought they'd fall immediately. But big bad Russia couldn't even roll through Ukraine after a month free reign to build forces on Ukraine's border on 3 sides? From land, air and sea? I mean, they started like 100 miles from the freaking capital with a massive build up and still can't get there.

Now Putin is stuck. He CAN'T lose. I mean, what an embarrassment to fail at an invasion with literally all odds in his favor. So, the question is, how far does he go to wrap this up? The more Ukraine slows his forces down, the more drastic his response will be. He's not just going to let them slug it out for however long it takes, is he?

[FoxtArt]

It is a lose/lose for Putin either way which makes it unpredictable. Russian soldiers thought all the Ukraine stuff was BS western propaganda...

Until they got drafted. We've been hacking their websites, now shutting out their credit cards, shit is getting real for the average Russian citizen, win or lose, most will come to realize the state media is pumping bullshit.

[Gman]

Anti-satellite warfare is a distinct asymmetric possibility. We know they can do it. They have the missile technology.

We also have the ability. Not sure anybody wants to surround the planet with debris.

Putin feared a unified Europe. He's basically created a self-fulfilling prophecy by his advances on Ukraine. I hope the situation gets bad enough that the Russian people throw the bum out, but they've been controlled by fear their entire lives.

ETA: This conflict has made a couple of things more clear to me about Russia's capability. They don't seem to be able to fight well at night and their air power is overrated.

I still hope that Ukraine bleeds Russia terribly in this attack and they pay dearly for it.

[hollohas]

It is a lose/lose for Putin either way which makes it unpredictable.

So why did he do it? That's what's weird about this. Putin isn't dumb. Why start a lose/lose invasion? Either he underestimated Ukraine's defenses (not likely IMO) or there is a different end goal then we all think that makes this worth it.

Either way, I hope US military leaders take a break from woke training and rooting out white supremacy to spend some time studying Russian tactics and capabilities here. It's been a long time since we've had a solid chance to have such a good look at what they can/can't do. Wishful thinking probably.

[FoxtArt]

I think he underestimated the world response. The world did (mostly) nothing the first two times (Georgia, Crimea). All the sudden, the world has flipped the table over and is sending NATO equipment, cutting RU off from everything, hacking their websites, and doing the polar opposite of prior historical response. And NATO is now massively ramping up defense spending and many other countries will likely join (Finland, Sweden). What's he going to do, turn Russia into glass?

But of course, Ukraine is a bit more of a bit than what he had previously pushed for. He made a massive miscalculation and Russia is still very likely to win if they trudge through it, but the cost will end up being too high and they won't be able to keep it forever.

On the other hand, Russia is a slowly dying empire. Population losses, economy, the works, it's a try-or-die type of deal in the long term in Putins mind potentially. Which also makes them more unpredictable. If they fail here, it seals the fate of the Russian empire. Maybe not today, but within 50 years, it'll cease to be a world player in any accord and cease being "Russia". It'll just be "that cold place that exports raw materials."