Ukraine - Take two

[Martinjmpr]

1. I did say the propaganda war. Propaganda is the ONLY reason to do a false flag operation and just makes no sense in this particular case.
2. The Russian objective pretty clearly seems to have been to take Kyiv so they could install a new puppet government in roughly 3 days, no more than a week because their logistics only supported 4-5 days of operations. They have pretty clearly failed in that objective.
3. I'm all ears (or eyes since this is a text-based bulletin board) if you have an idea of what a Russian objective might have been that involves losing as many senior commanders and tanks as they have and that stretches combat operations out for over month but still means they are winning. They might still win this out since the Ukrainian reserves must be stretched pretty thin but the very fact that Ukraine is still standing as an independent country at this point in time suggests Russia is losing this big time.

I think Russia achieves its overall strategic objective if Ukraine is beaten bloody to the point where they don't even consider joining NATO and have a more-or-less compliant government that is willing to do Russia's bidding.

EDITED TO ADD: And Ukraine's beating down also serves as a warning to any other smaller, vulnerable nations that might want to try and shore up an alliance with NATO. The not-so-subtle message being: You can't count on NATO to save you so you better do what we want. I'm thinking of Moldova and possibly Belarus (although AFAIK Belarus is a near-dictatorship run by a Putin-loving leader, to the extent that Belarusian units have been participating in the Ukraine invasion. But that might not always be the case.)

However I would also say that level of resolve is personal to Putin himself. After he shuffles off this mortal coil, Ukraine could throw its hand in with NATO, on the premise that the new ruler of Russia isn't likely to be as emotionally invested in beating down Ukraine as Putin was.