Quote Originally Posted by Martinjmpr View Post
When this decision first came out there was talk in some pro-choice circles about how this would "galvanize the progressives" into turning out in the mid-terms.

I don't see it happening though. Increasing turn-out in states that are already solid Democrat isn't going to change the electoral map at all. And in states that are solid Republican, increasing the Democratic turn out isn't likely to have much of an effect on the elections.
The progressives seem to be galvanized 24/7/365.25 about all sorts of crazy stuff so do they even have any bandwidth left?

But you are correct, the constituency that expects to need an abortion is pretty small and this won't be nearly as big a motivator as concerns about the economy. But long term I would expect to see this play out in Republican primaries since there are plenty of R's that feel it should be legal in the first trimester or for certain exceptions. The republican party of today is much more nationalistic and blue-collar, and less moral-majority, than it was even 10 years ago so I don't think many red states will have outright bans.