Egypt

[Hoosier]

I didn't see a thread about this, they turned off their internet last night. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6M-Xz9fIPx this sums it up in a video.

For those who don't know, Egypt has been ruled by the same guy for 30 years. They've been our second largest foreign aid recipient for many years, essentially an ongoing bribe for them to play nice with Israel. Now when we should be able to stand with the protesters seeking real democracy, we're forced to essentially say, "We're going to wait and see who wins."

To top it off, Mubarak has been seen as a Western puppet, which of course means any new government will have a dim view of the US. And will probably not appreciate loosing the revenue stream of billions in US $. I guess on the plus side, we get to keep that money. It seems a lot like a re-run of The Shah and Iran circa 1979. The name of the most popular anti-government organization in Egypt? "The Muslim Brotherhood"

Turning off the internet is important because it shows how desperate they are. Coincidentally, OpenLeaks.org launched the same day, it's goal is similar to WikiLeaks, except they won't self publish the information, they'll funnel it to traditional media outlets, and hopefully they won't have a media whore of a leader. It's interesting to see the ramifications of these leaks in fueling the fire across North Africa.

WARNING: This video shows someone who isn't a threat getting shot:
http://www.frequency.com/video/teen-gunned/2311267

So my take-aways from this has been:

* Anyone who says we need an internet kill switch, is OK with trying to remove the ability of the public to intercommunicate.

* Ham Radio license & gear, packet radio: time to do it

* The US needs to do The Right Thing, not the Politically Convenient Thing

* Be able to consistently and accurately bat at 400+ meters

H.

[Elhuero]

Shitty things going on with shitty people in a shitty part of the world.

[Zundfolge]

...Now when we should be able to stand with the protesters seeking real democracy...

...The name of the most popular anti-government organization in Egypt? "The Muslim Brotherhood"...

See, there's a huge inconsistency.

The Muslim Brotherhood wishes to institute Sharia ... which is anything but "real democracy".


No sir, there's not upside here.

Either Egypt remains under the boot of a corrupt dictator that we can control somewhat or will end up under the boot of corrupt Mullahs that we can't (like Iran).


Frankly any non Muslim living in Egypt should be packing their shit RIGHT NOW and fleeing.

* The US needs to do The Right Thing, not the Politically Convenient Thing

Please define "The Right Thing" (and supporting this popular revolution is probably not the right thing either as it will likely be an Islamofascist revolution).

As I see it there is nothing "Right" nor "Politically Convenient" that we can do (other than just sit there slack jawed and watch like the rest of the world).

[Mtn.man]

I see this happening here in the future. Maybe...

[Hoosier]

No sir, there's not upside here.

This much is probably true, but there are certainly lessons to be (re)learned.

There is no assurance that Sharia law or a fundamentalist Muslim government will come to power. We could be working to help ensure a smooth transition to a secular democracy.

H.

[Not_A_Llama]

There is no assurance that Sharia law or a fundamentalist Muslim government will come to power. We could be working to help ensure a smooth transition to a secular democracy.

The shit thing about protests and exercises of democracy is that the other side never views it as such. If the people of Egypt want Sharia law, it would be the right thing to not intervene.

It certainly appears that's what (at least a large portion) wants.

[Zundfolge]

I agree, if our government has ANY involvement in that mess it should be to push toward a secular democracy.

There may be no guarantee of a fundamentalist Muslim revolution coming there, but its more likely than not.

From a piece I read in the Jerusalem Post:
Maj.-Gen. (res.) Giora Eiland, a former national security adviser, and a senior research fellow at Tel Aviv University’s Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), said, ‘There’s a reasonable chance that if a revolution takes place in Egypt, the Muslim Brotherhood would rise to power. That would be bad not just for Israel but for all democracies.’ The true struggle in Egypt was not between ‘Mubarak and pro-democracy elements, but between Mubarak and the Muslim Brotherhood,’ Eiland said.


I guess my overall point is that there is no clear "good guys" here and the best policy is probably to just say "We're going to wait and see who wins." and then deal with the winner.

[Byte Stryke]

We could be working to help ensure a smooth transition to a secular democracy.

H.

I wont get into a huge Social government debate or lecture, but one of the reasons we are back in Afghanistan is that after the Soviets Left, we left too. There was a Huge Vacuum and no one to help with the transition.
It wasn't an environment conducive for an election.
It was more of a "I Have more Guns, I'm in charge." situation, which is rarely a good thing.

[Bailey Guns]

The shit thing about protests and exercises of democracy is that the other side never views it as such. If the people of Egypt want Sharia law, it would be the right thing to not intervene.

It certainly appears that's what (at least a large portion) wants.

Or, at least that's what the most vocal and visible of the protesters would have you believe. I'm skeptical that's what the average Joe in Egypt really wants.

I, too, am failing to see an upside here. And I sure as hell don't have an answer.

[Not_A_Llama]

Here's the thing, though.

Most of Egypt is Muslim. 80-90%, by Wikipedia's stats. Most Egyptian muslims that I know are at least fairly observant. Much more observant than most American Christians, anyway. You cannot have a secular democracy (drawn from the people) in that environment. Autocratic governance against the will of the people is the only way you get secularism when your population is strongly religious. If i were to pick some examples offhand, I'd say Saddam-era Iraq, non-recent Turkey, and... well, Egypt.

I have trouble labeling religious laws like Sharia as wrong when we ourselves have religious laws that're codified and respected in our "secular" laws. Agree with them or not, we in our ostensibly-secular democracy still have religious-influence like no alcohol/cars on Sunday, swearing of oaths on bibles, "In God We Trust", adultery laws, gay non-marriage, religious discrimination in the military (AF academy), etc, etc, etc.

It's hard to respect the notion that we choose to help democracy when it conforms to our standards. When rule of law is drawn from different people, different laws appear. If we want to brand ourselves as guardians of democracy, that can't come with the stipulation "unless you live differently from us". I think honestly, that path's fucked us in the past (Ngo Dinh Diem, right?) with our banana republic anti-democratic binge. We're bad defenders of democracy. We're OK defenders of American interests, which is really how we should brand ourselves - "we're not always on the right, but rise with us".