Figure 1 mile per watt transmission range on a ham radio, with no terrain in the way radio to radio. (simplex)
If you use repeaters, .25 or .5 watt will get you into the repeater fine with great potential output from the repeater. Depending on the repeater location, 100 miles output isn't out of the question, but the other side needs to talk into the repeater too. Location Location Location. Good equipment and antennas make a big difference.
A lot of the repeater sites are on generator, so they should be up and running for a while during SHTF. Also, the repeaters are usually on a different power grid, so if things are down here in the big city, the repeaters on the front range mountains are usually running. FYI, most ham repeaters are sharing locations with PD and Fire departments.
If SHTF, the repeaters will be loaded up with emergency communications and you're not going to be able to use it for your own purpose most likely. You'll be able to talk to the control station of that repeater and relay information possibly to whomever you need to speak, but it will be delayed with priority traffic for the emergency.
If you need emergency communication, it will be available and will take priority.
I rely on my Ham gear to listen as much as anything, you can pick up AM/FM/TV/News/Aviation/etc. If you can hear the ham stations talking about situations and news crews reporting situations, you'll know as much as anyone else without power and no tv or radio at home.
Echolink is Ham Radio Voice over IP. Its pretty cool, and you don't even need the ham gear to use it, normal PC with sound card and microphone. Connect through ham clubs and private users through the internet and talk to hams in another location on their radios. If the power is out, not much fun though.
Sun Spot cycle should be getting better in a few years, right now its low and long distance communications is limited.