Three Reasons Gun Control Isn't Going To Happen.

[Zundfolge]

I've been decrying all the doom, gloom and FUD that has been permeating gun forums since the shooting and this article re-buttresses my position (thus it's 100% accurate and if you disagree you're just misguided and wrong headed ).

Anyway, interesting article that may help assuage some of the fear out there.

Source

In the immediate aftermath of Friday's terrible tragedy in Connecticut, there have been the predictable calls to enact new gun control legislation. The usual proponents of additional restrictions on guns have filled the airwaves with calls for immediate legislative action. Sen. Diane Feinstein has promised to introduce a new "assault weapons" ban on the first day of the new Congress next year. But, there are three very big reasons to believe that, for all the rhetoric, nothing will come of this new push for gun control.


1. Biden Gun Violence Task Force

This afternoon, President Obama convened a press conference announcing the formation of a blue-ribbon task force, chaired by VP Biden, to examine and recommend changes in our country's gun laws. Most pundits are greeting this news as a sign that Obama is serious about pushing for additional gun control legislation. The formation of the task force, however, means almost the opposite.
In Washington, blue-ribbon task forces are reserved for issues where you want the appearance of taking action, without having to actually do anything. There's a reason we've had so many task forces on government spending and the debt. Politicians want to look like they are doing something on an issue. By the time the task force completes its work, the national conversation will have moved on to a new issue.
Task forces are also effective ways to slow down a push for legislation. Legislators can defer taking action while the task force completes its "review" of the issue. Its a very convenient way to kick an issue down the road until after the immediate emotions have cooled.


2. 2014 Mid-Term Elections

The Democrats have dodged two election threats to their majority in the Senate. They clung to their majority in 2010 and even managed to get back two seats last month. But, the GOP gets a third bite at the apple in 2014, when the Democrats will be defending 20 seats against the GOP's 13. In the 13th, Maine, the GOP would be strongly favored if Susan Collins opts, as expected, to run for reelection. The Democrats, by contrast face a dangerous array of states.
Among the states Democrats will be defending are Alaska, Arkansas, Louisiana, North Carolina, West Virginia, Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado, Iowa, New Mexico and South Dakota. All of these states have very strong blocks of pro-gun voters. In Michigan, the issue could come into play if Sen. Carl Levin decides to retire.
Elections in 2014 are already expected to be a difficult cycle for Democrats. In the modern political era, virtually every party holding the White House has suffered losses in the middle of its second term. The lone exception was 1998, when Bill Clinton was in the middle of his second term. The GOP retained its majority in Congress, but lost a handful of seats. There were very particular circumstances surrounding that loss which aren't likely to be repeated.
Regardless of how the fiscal cliff negotiations end, the economy will remain weak through 2014. There is even a chance the economy slips back into recession. It is unlikely Harry Reid wants to add to the Democrats' challenge by making gun control an issue in the midterm. Midterm's have lower turnout than presidential elections, allowing an energized base of voters, like gun rights supporters, to have an out-sized impact on the results.


3. Obama's Press Conference Today

Obama announced his gun task force at a press conference this afternoon. The tragedy in Connecticut has dominated the news cycle for the past six days. There have been innumerable stories on the shooting and the prospects for new gun control legislation. Yet, the very first question out of the White House press corps was on...the fiscal cliff. In fact, except for two quick questions at the end, every question at the presser was on the fiscal cliff.
This suggests the the press corps doesn't really put a lot of stock into all the current noise about gun control. Its a jaded, cynical group of reporters and they have seen this dance often. If they really thought recent developments had put new momentum behind gun control legislation, they would have asked about it. That would be a big political story.


The chief challenge for gun control advocates is that it isn't at all clear that their proposals would have prevented to shooting at Sandy Hook. The current proposals being discussed have been on gun control wish-lists for decades and don't have any specific application to the events in Newtown. Obama's press conference today marked the zenith of the new push for gun control. Its momentum will fade as the raw emotions around the shooting recede. With it, the appetite for new gun control laws will fall away. Obama's task force is recognition of that.

[Skully]

Nice, very nice.

I still say we all need to organise and write write call and call, but hope that the source of the article is still right.

[merl]

only #2 applies in this state though. even if nothing happens federally, good chance something happens local to the state.

[Ronin13]

only #2 applies in this state though. even if nothing happens federally, good chance something happens local to the state.

This! Their pens are already drafting what is to go up for vote next year...

[Clint45]

"This afternoon, President Obama convened a press conference announcing the formation of a blue-ribbon task force, chaired by VP Biden, to examine and recommend changes in our country's gun laws. Most pundits are greeting this news as a sign that Obama is serious about pushing for additional gun control legislation."

Biden might actually be more anti-gun than Bloomberg. He is certainly more strident than Obama or the Clintons, as well as less intelligent and less open to reasonable debate regarding logic and fact. This is the clown who wanted to ban ammo cans 20 years ago. I have been expecting this to happen since he first became VP.

[Drucker]

We had better be organizing, and talking to people outside of the everyday community of people who own and shoot firearms. Listening to what we want to hear and preaching to the choir is part of the reason we have the President we have today.

Not that I think that Mitt would be acting any differently today than "O" is.

[brokenscout]

Well I better sell my $100 PMags, hope your right

[trlcavscout]

So I dont need this 100yr supply of 45 and twinkies? UUUUMMMmmmm twinkies

But I dont buy it, I am still betting on new unenforceable legislation by the end of the first quater 2013 at the latest. To many pussy ass gun owners are even calling for stricter laws. I have heard several "hunters" claiming we dont need semi-autos and such. I am calling for an all out ban on alcohol, tobacco and cars that go over 75

[wreave]

This sounds like the kind of logical, well-reasoned, completely believable information that was being put out on 11/5, saying that the polls were wrong and Romney would win with 300+ EC votes.

[asmo]

1. Biden Gun Violence Task Force

This afternoon, President Obama convened a press conference announcing the formation of a blue-ribbon task force, chaired by VP Biden, to examine and recommend changes in our country's gun laws. Most pundits are greeting this news as a sign that Obama is serious about pushing for additional gun control legislation. The formation of the task force, however, means almost the opposite.

Except its not a blue-ribbon task force. Its 'recommendations' are due January. The names on the council are being kept secret but we all know who they are. In reality its a smokescreen so that a position paper can be drafted so they can claim that the issue was studied and a 'bi-partisan committee' has reccomended.

What is more interesting is that the Pres is distancing himself from the situation. Which reporters he called on during the conference was (and always is) carefully planned - he knows their area of concern and which outlets they write for. It wasn't that the media isn't interested or that the media thought the fiscal cliff was more important - its that the white house thought it was more important. The reason why the gun questions were at the end was so that it could easily transition to Biden to speak.

That right there might be the biggest tell of all. Do they know they don't have a snowballs chance in hell of passing anything so better to keep the pres. at the edge so he doesn't get dirty? Or do they believe they will only get some new provisions passed and this way the pres. doesn't look like he failed. Very odd.