Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics

[Rucker61]

Sen. Feinsteins recent effort to re-enact an AWB cites repeatedly that homicides declined after the 1994 AWB was enacted, inferring that the AWB led to a decline in murders and that a new one would make us all safer. Given that there's be a steady decline in all violent crimes since a high water mark in 1993, it just pisses me off to no end that they misuse statistics in this way. I decided to do a little research on my own. I compiled the statistics for the years 2004-2010 on homicides, homicides by rifle and the increase in AR-15 ownership in the US. Obviously, if the anti's premise holds, the increase in the numbers of the dangerous, high-powered AR-15 with an unlimited amount of high-capacity magazines and cheap ammo should be shown in the US crime statistics. That turns out not to be the case.

The crime statistics are from the FBI website: http://www.fbi.gov/stats-services/crimestats

The numbers of AR-15s sold by year in the US come from data compiled by the UK newspaper The Guardian, a publication not known for a pro-weapons stance, from data published by the BATFE: http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/datab...fles-sold#data. There is a link at the top of the article to download the raw data. The sales data are only from eight AR-15 manufacturers (Armalite, Bushmaster, Colt, DPMS. Olympic Arms, Rock River Arms, Smith & Wesson, Stag Arms), so the numbers of AR-15s in the hands of US gun-owners would be significantly higher. However, this doesn't affect the FBI data. The sales data reflect only increases to the pre-2004 AR-15 ownership, as I couldn't find a source for total numbers of AR-15 ownership.

Here's the summary: from 2004-2010, the number of homicides and the number of rifles (all types) used in homicides have shown a small but steady decrease. During that time, we've seen a significant increase in AR-15 ownership (over 1.6M from eight manfuacturers alone).







If we've put over 1.5M new ARs in the hands of Americans since 2004, how come there were fewer homicides by rifle in the last three years of the study as compared to 2004? Feel free to use any of this in communications with your legislators.

Edit: anyone got a good way to show spreadsheets in a post?

[Great-Kazoo]

You're shocked a .pol would use and or bend statistics to their needs?