Long Position on Silver and Gold?

[DFBrews]

Begining of the year 2018 February ish to buy a customer spec semi truck from kenworth you would take delivery in September of 2019 (all fleets order large numbers of speced trucks at a time)

Right now if you ordered one you could order today and it would get built 3rd week of September and delivered 2nd week of October.

The pre downturn of 2008 experienced similar truck buying trends. With a corresponding increase in service work to try and extend the life of the 150k per truck expense of buying new. And we are seeing an uptick of non warranty work at the dealer level

[Irving]

I can't put together the reason for the change. Can you clarify?

[Justin]

I can't put together the reason for the change. Can you clarify?

If fewer companies are buying new trucks, it's an indicator that there's less demand to move stuff around the country.

Less demand to move stuff around the country translates to companies/people spending less money, possibly in anticipation of an economic downturn.

Also, if trucking companies are opting to engage in maintenance/refurbishment of current trucks that are nearing what would normally be their end of life, this also could be an indicator that the trucking companies are doing what they can to save money because at some level, it's cheaper to maintain a fleet of aging vehicles than it is to replace them with new trucks.

[roberth]

Great example from this morning...

House approves loan program for troubled pension plans

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/p...-pension-plans

This is more money we don't have.

All while the markets are up!

How long will it take for this new agency to eye private retirement plans as a solution to failing multi-employer pensions and Social Security? There is an estimated $5.6T in 401K accounts as of 2019Q01. Why not take that money now and guarantee a benefit later? It's not like we paid tax on it so it's not ours--I know that's not true it's what idiot mostly millennials will say who haven't saved a dime.

And isn't it cute that GOPers are voting to bail out union pensions!

I saw that, I'm tired of bailing out banks, automakers, and other people who have mismanaged their businesses. I can mismanage my own money just fine on my own thank you very much.

BTW when do I get something for nothing? Rhetorical of course.

there's been talk of tapping into 401 accounts for some time. It's too juicy for them to keep their dam! paws off of. It'll be interesting the day it happens because it's going to affect many more people negatively then it will positively.

Yes, I've read that too, this might happen if the financial situation deteriorates to some level, I just don't know what level of deterioration we're talking about. Now if the national financial situation is bad, that means the 401Ks will be down too so there will be substantially less than $5.6T in value will be available to steal.

[roberth]

If fewer companies are buying new trucks, it's an indicator that there's less demand to move stuff around the country.

Less demand to move stuff around the country translates to companies/people spending less money, possibly in anticipation of an economic downturn.

Also, if trucking companies are opting to engage in maintenance/refurbishment of current trucks that are nearing what would normally be their end of life, this also could be an indicator that the trucking companies are doing what they can to save money because at some level, it's cheaper to maintain a fleet of aging vehicles than it is to replace them with new trucks.

Thank you.

That's weird though, if the economy is booming why is there less movement of goods around the country?

Has railroads seen an uptick in business? According to this revenues and mileage have fallen - https://www.bts.gov/content/rail-profile (last data is from 2016)

More on railroads - https://www.freightwaves.com/news/ra...volume-growing

Association of American Railroads costs money to see their data.

Are companies are building more local facilities so they don't need long-haul trucking? I don't know, just asking questions.

[Irving]

If fewer companies are buying new trucks, it's an indicator that there's less demand to move stuff around the country.

Less demand to move stuff around the country translates to companies/people spending less money, possibly in anticipation of an economic downturn.

Also, if trucking companies are opting to engage in maintenance/refurbishment of current trucks that are nearing what would normally be their end of life, this also could be an indicator that the trucking companies are doing what they can to save money because at some level, it's cheaper to maintain a fleet of aging vehicles than it is to replace them with new trucks.

I'm not sure that's correct. A crash usually happens suddenly and people buy and buy right up until that point, so it doesn't make sense that trucking companies don't have the demand in anticipation of a crash.

[BushMasterBoy]

Best investments I have made so far are the house & land, wood stove and swamp cooler. They have given me the best returns financially and pleasure physically. The PM's are just insurance and historically will keep up with inflation. All the other stuff is just too much work.

[Skip]

Great example from this morning...

House approves loan program for troubled pension plans

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/p...-pension-plans

The House voted 264-169 on Wednesday to pass legislation that would create a new Treasury Department agency to provide taxpayer-backed loans to endangered multiemployer pension plans and some other types of endangered plans.

[snip]

That there is a crisis with multiemployer pension plans that must be addressed is something about which all sides agree. The PBGC reported late last year that it had a $54 billion deficit in its multiemployer program and it is projected to run out in 2025. Nationwide, the plans are less than 50% funded, relative to their current liabilities and need $600 billion to cover them all, though a few seriously troubled plans such as the Teamsters’ Central States Fund throw off the average.

A total of 29 Republicans joined with Democrats to back the legislation. "These are ordinary, day-to-day Americans. The people we claim to represent," said Republican New York Rep. Peter King, urging his fellow Republicans to back the bill.

This is more money we don't have.

All while the markets are up!

How long will it take for this new agency to eye private retirement plans as a solution to failing multi-employer pensions and Social Security? There is an estimated $5.6T in 401K accounts as of 2019Q01. Why not take that money now and guarantee a benefit later? It's not like we paid tax on it so it's not ours--I know that's not true it's what idiot mostly millennials will say who haven't saved a dime.

And isn't it cute that GOPers are voting to bail out union pensions!

[glocktoberfest]

This is unbelievably bad. So offer huge pensions and benefits and spend money like there's no tomorrow, and now the govt gets to bail out those pension programs? this is complete bull. This better get shot down

Great example from this morning...

House approves loan program for troubled pension plans

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/p...-pension-plans



This is more money we don't have.

All while the markets are up!

How long will it take for this new agency to eye private retirement plans as a solution to failing multi-employer pensions and Social Security? There is an estimated $5.6T in 401K accounts as of 2019Q01. Why not take that money now and guarantee a benefit later? It's not like we paid tax on it so it's not ours--I know that's not true it's what idiot mostly millennials will say who haven't saved a dime.

And isn't it cute that GOPers are voting to bail out union pensions!

[Skip]

This is unbelievably bad. So offer huge pensions and benefits and spend money like there's no tomorrow, and now the govt gets to bail out those pension programs? this is complete bull. This better get shot down

It's only passed in the House and word is the Senate will kill it.

If for some reason the Senate GOPes, Trump isn't going to let them take $6T from the markets on his watch. Not necessarily because he cares about us, but because it would cause market turmoil that would jeopardize his reelection and legacy.

Teresa Ghilarducci, and a "working group" started shopping this idea around in 2008.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB122662401729126813

She called the 401(k) "a failed experiment." A McDermott spokesman called her proposals "intriguing" and "part of the discussion." Mr. Miller hasn't so far endorsed the plan.

The main liberal objection to 401(k)s seems to be that they let average Americans control their own investment decisions for retirement. As Shlomo Benartzi, a professor at UCLA's Anderson business school, told Mr. Miller's committee, "Individuals have a tendency to buy at the peak, and then panic when the markets drop and sell at the bottom." Better to have the government do this instead.

And private pension funds are underfunded. And public service pensions are underfunded. And Social Security is going broke in an era of un-checked deficit spending. But yes, these private accounts are huge problem!


This lady hates private retirement savings with a passion that spans decades. It's irrational. I wonder if a 401K killed her puppy when she was a child?

And Dems love her.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money...ings/24842705/

Senate Democrats have used Ghilarducci's proposals as a springboard for their own plans. "Every candidate will talk to a pension geek," she explains. And "that's me." It's been reported that she's among a group of economists advising all-but-announced presidential candidate Hillary Clinton. (Neither Ghilarducci nor Clinton staffers would confirm ? or deny.)

Which would give Ghilarducci, who is 57 with a pixie-like face and a high-energy manner, a broader platform for her controversial ideas than ever before. The daughter of a single welfare mom, Ghilarducci maintains a strong, if often unfashionable, faith in an active government and a strong safety net. How else could she have made it from a dusty California town to tenure at elite universities (first Notre Dame and now the New School, where she directs the Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis) to the ear of the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee?

[snip]

She's been saying this for more than 20 years ? in 1993, when the vehicle was in its infancy, she wrote an op-ed headlined "Beware the 401(k)." To her labor-economist eye, the 401(k) wrongly shifts risk from the employer to the employee and offers no guaranteed payout.