
Originally Posted by
Skip
I'm surprised it's close to 2.5%. IMHO, had Hillary won, we'd still have ~0% (give or take 25-50 bps).
There were very smart people predicting the economy could never be "normal" after the Obama years. I'm still not sure they weren't wrong. A lot of things are going to be tough in an adjustment period. Those low rates created asset bubbles and subsidized businesses/models that would have failed under market-based conditions.
5% Fed rate would wreck housing. The market would slow, prices soften, and we'd see massive sell off like 2007-08. You'd have the CA mindset of people "walking away" from underwater mortgages. Then the cascading waves of failures from increased inventory > foreclosures > falling prices > repeat.