You sir, are a specialist in the art of discovering a welcoming outcome of a particular situation....not a mechanic.
My feedback add 11-12 ish before the great servpocaylpse of 2012
The Great Kazoo's Feedback
"when you're happy you enjoy the melody but, when you're broken you understand the lyrics".
How do you interpret contango in the forward months? Pure cost of carry spread, or fundamental mispricing/opportunity in the cash/prompt?
Looks like you're playing ETFs - the trade is pretty easy for me to see on ICE, but have you thought about playing the spread on USO/BNO?
With WTI inventories where they are, plus geopolitical risk out east...
Last edited by Not_A_Llama; 07-08-2015 at 23:09.
(limited knowledge in comm/energy/ser3)
For Aug'15? I think lower? I don't know how there will be change in demand after last holiday travel season on sept. I don't see any transport/retail picking up either. (if you see, majority of large retailers didn't do good last Q).
At this moment due to faster decrease in price of USO relative to decrease in price in BNO, I am looking at USO. Maybe investors are speculating the price of oil futures at specific dates lower than current spot. I don't see diesel demand shooting really high either by looking at cross elastcity withdiesel, octane and natgas. Natgas futures being so cheap, I don't know how Nov oil futures will play out. My guess is not as good.
I think Shanghai and Hanseng falling 3 consecutive days (except today, indicies are up) and China's possible slowdown (demand side) can be more significant the Greece+Iran. That being said, I think WTI invetory glut (which we are fully aware of) is less uncertainty than how China economy will play out. With that being said, I am more focus into USO than BNO.
Apparently, some people think that silver is on par with chocolate.
My Feedback
"When law and morality contradict each other, the citizen has the cruel alternative of either losing his moral sense or losing his respect for the law." -Frederic Bastiat
"I am a conservative. Quite possibly I am on the losing side; often I think so. Yet, out of a curious perversity I had rather lose with Socrates, let us say, than win with Lenin."
― Russell Kirk, Author of The Conservative Mind
Not surprised at the results as presented...
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