How long before the ammo shortage dies down

[Circuits]

I just don't understand. Are the ammo manufactures running their equipment 24/7? There are plenty of people looking for work, why aren't they hiring more people to work more machines for longer hours? Even if they are just temporary jobs, and it's a temporary demand why wouldn't all these companies do everything humanly possible to take full advantage of selling anything they could make as fast as they could possibly make it?

Any factory already runs 24/7, or close to it. To do anything less is inefficient, and keeping the machines running was the reason for the creation of shift work in the first place - two or three shifts to keep the expensive capital equipment running as much as possible.

Only if a factory was running below normal levels, due to slump in demand, perhaps, can they just "ramp up" output quickly - and ammo leading up to the election and newtown was anything but in a slump.

The only other way, then, to increase capacity is to add new production lines, or upgrade existing machinery to do more or go faster. That takes money, lots of money, and time. Why on earth would an ammo factory add, say, $100M in new equipment in order to keep your price down, and when supply catches up to demand, they're sitting with expensive new machines to make more product than they need? The way new capacity gets added overall is new companies starting up, or the big companies overhauling their old machines once they've recouped their capital investment, and building a bigger/better/faster/more efficient production line in due time as part of modernization and maintenance, not as knee-jerk reaction to market fluctuations.

The fact is that demand has outstripped supply even with the ammo companies making as much as they can, as fast as they possibly can make it - and they'll only add additional capacity if the demand stays high for a long time, and projections make them believe demand is going to keep remaining high even after and if they add additional capacity.

[davsel]

That's why I asked earlier if there was a material shortage. So it goes up the line, ramp up the mines, ramp up the foundries, ramp up the entire line of production from raw materials to ammo salesman in the stores. If the demand is there work to fill it.

There just seems to be more to the story to me.

It's not just ammo, guns as well. I don't understand why everyone is out of everything. If you manufacture bolt carrier groups, and you can't keep them on the shelf, bring on a second shift, if you still can't keep up bring on a third shift, if you still can't keep up bring in more equipment and people to run it. You should be trying to sell everything you possibly can while the demand is there for it, because you never know when it will disappear.

“We are not experiencing a gun or ammo shortage. We are experiencing a customer surplus.”

Good Article concerning this topic:
http://www.gunsandammo.com/2013/04/02/ammo-shortage/

[BushMasterBoy]

AND this has what to do with ammo?

Legislation and antigun attitude? I dunno...everybody buying cos' the .gov bought more than anybody? OP asked when it was gonna be back to normal and I gave my opinion.

[Colorado_Outback]

What Circuits said is spot on. Additionally everyone who works in a production environment knows that its never as easy as it should be. Your going to have problems that effect your delivery dates almost without fail. Machines break, operators call in sick, things happen..

[Special Ed]

It's not just ammo, guns as well. I don't understand why everyone is out of everything.

The wife and I were at Cabela's in Ft. Worth yesterday (and Monday) and guns were quite plentiful. I'd say that their shelves were fully stocked. This was everything from concealed carry handguns up to AR-10s and AR-15s. They had lots of powder and primers, shotgun shells and magazines too. They had zero .22LR, were woefully short of any pistol ammo and .223 and .308 were out of stock too (though they did have a bunch of .223 on Monday morning, it was gone when we went back Tuesday morning.....price was around the .41/round figure for 55 gr. FMJ quoted earlier in this thread).

Now...15 miles away at Bass Pro Shops in Grapevine (just north of DFW Airport), their gun shelves were better than our Bass Pro in Denver but nowhere near the Cabela's stock level (they had maybe 20 handguns total and half of those were SAA clones and other revolvers).

[RCCrawler]

The only other way, then, to increase capacity is to add new production lines, or upgrade existing machinery to do more or go faster. That takes money, lots of money, and time. Why on earth would an ammo factory add, say, $100M in new equipment in order to keep your price down, and when supply catches up to demand, they're sitting with expensive new machines to make more product than they need?

From the article davsel posted:

First, ammunition manufacturers have been running at or near capacity for at least 10 years. Some of their production is still earmarked for military contracts, even though the U.S. military’s presence overseas is being reduced. But the fact of the matter is most ammo makers have barely recovered from the last ammo-buying panic. Nobody who makes ammo has had it sitting around getting dusty on their shelves. They were barely able to keep up with commercial demand before the country went into panic-buying mode.

So running at capacity for 10 years before all of this happened isn't reason enough to ramp up and invest in more equipment?

[Colorado_Outback]

No matter how you slice it more equipment/tooling = more overhead. More overhead = less profit, and all these company's are in business to make a profit.

Yes you can add profit by increasing production but its not a cut and dry as you suggest. It takes a long time to engineer, order, produce, install and debug a production line of that size. You cant just call someone and order equipment like that and have the line up and running next Tuesday..

[streetglideok]

At this point, I would wait and see what comes of the Boston bombing, and the ricin letters. Depending on who Uncle Obama blames, will affect ammo supplies

[Great-Kazoo]

From the article davsel posted:



So running at capacity for 10 years before all of this happened isn't reason enough to ramp up and invest in more equipment?

You're leaving out the most important item. MANPOWER Sure lets hire john & jane doe to run 36/7 . As any business increases the workforce they also increase their INS coverage, FICA (Soc Sec) for the uninformed, workers comp, AND HEALTH INS as mandated by the unreasonable health care act. I can hire 6 more bodies to fill a small window of opportunity. it makes me $500K more in 6 months. However the up front paid out in all benefits, equip etc cost me $501K. Why pay more to make less??
As Circuits pointed out increasing production for something that may or will not maintain todays level, cost a lot more in the long run.

PLUS ........If the assholes in DC have their way the ammo prices could double if not triple due to new TAXES on components and Finished product. How many smaller companies woudl close their doors under those conditions?

[Rabid]

Not to mention as we wind down things in the sandbox won't there be some decent surplus available?

I doubt it. We can not buy US surplus and i do not think i have ever seen British surplus for sale. The rest of the country's may have some but they never really played a big roll in the war. The good news is there is more ammo made that will be available to the public now that the government has less demand.

They are making a lot of ammo but you have to realize every store in America needs to be restocked and that spreads out the supply pretty thin and on top of that people are still hoarding ammo. Even if you are not making a stockpile you are still going to be prone to buy more ammo then you did pre-panic because you are not sure it will be on the shelf next time you want it. It is a big negative feedback loop that is going to take some time to slow down and run its course.
I personally think, if nothing else happens, it will be over a year till you can reliably find ammo if you visit a few stores but i am sure there will be a gun run on the next election and it starts all over again.