View Full Version : Real Estate Market. Thoughts?
Things are out of control here. We've touched on it in some other threads but no dedicated thread. What are your thoughts on the real estate market? It has to pop again at some point, right? Is Colorado insulated enough based on the masses of people seemingly flocking here? So many people are selling and taking the crazy equity while they can it makes me wonder on what to do.
Do you see an end to it? Would you sell and take what you can now and roll it over to a different home if you could find one with some nice upgrades you wanted, even if you don't need them yet? Try to wait a little longer and let it grow even more?
How do you see the Colorado real estate market, current and future?
I have a set price when my house gets to im selling.
Yes we're in another bubble. Yes it will crash. How bad depends on many factors but I see financial articles saying businesses are worth 250mil and have no assets and no real income. It sends red flags of the dot com crash.
Firehaus
02-03-2015, 10:50
A 10% annual increase in your home isn't really a bubble that will pop easy. Look at the bubble markets like California where a 200%- 300% increase in value happened. That's a bubble.
This is just a tight market due to under supply and over demand.
Rents increased 12% last year in the metro area as well for the same reason. 3.9% was the metro vacancy rate for apartments.
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ruthabagah
02-03-2015, 10:51
A couple of things to consider for Colorado where Real estate prices are high for 3 factors: low inventory, a good economy, and low interest rate.
Disrupt any of the 3, and the market will either go down, or will stabilize itself.
The economy here in CO is strong for now, and will probably remain like this for the time being. The big unknown, is the oil market. Our economy is dependent of it, and there is rumor of big layoff in some of the companies based downtown....
Inventory, is not catching up. Now, a lot a baby boomer are looking into downsizing, and we may see a surge of available home this spring. But it should not impact properties value.
Interest rate: My take is that they will remain (artificially) low until the next presidential election.
The problem is that sure you can sell at your inflated price and make some cash but you then still need to buy a new place which will be at an equally if not more inflated price.. Are you still making money when you look 10, 15, 20, 30 years down the road?
I'm afraid I'm not ready to take advantage of this bubble. Want to sell before it pops and buy land.
The problem is that sure you can sell at your inflated price and make some cash but you then still need to buy a new place which will be at an equally if not more inflated price.. Are you still making money when you look 10, 15, 20, 30 years down the road?
My thoughts with that is my current home will take any hit the next purchase would also. I look at what hard cash I actually have invested in the home (my original down payment). That's all I really risk losing, in my opinion. If I can take that small amount and turn it into 100k equity for the next home, that leaves me at that same cash out-of-pocket expense for the next house. So if you pay 350k for the new home, it loses 100k in equity, you're still only X amount in for a larger home. I wouldn't look at any of this if it meant bringing extra cash to the table. It's all funny money right now.
Firehaus
02-03-2015, 11:09
There are still foreclosures and short sales going in houses with land outside the metro area. Good deals ( compared to the metro area) if you want to drive.
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A 10% annual increase in your home isn't really a bubble that will pop easy. Look at the bubble markets like California where a 200%- 300% increase in value happened. That's a bubble.
This is just a tight market due to under supply and over demand.
Rents increased 12% last year in the metro area as well for the same reason. 3.9% was the metro vacancy rate for apartments.
Sent from my iPhonegreeley is over 30% increases and 0.9% vacancy rate.
A house on my block sold for 32k two years ago is listed for over 100k. They did maybe 20k of improvements.
PugnacAutMortem
02-03-2015, 11:35
Would you sell and take what you can now and roll it over to a different home if you could find one with some nice upgrades you wanted, even if you don't need them yet?
That's exactly what we did. Sold our house that gained $60k in equity inside of 3 years, paid off tons of debt and put a down payment down on a house that was twice the size in a very new neighborhood that only has anywhere to go but up in value. It was totally worth it for someone in our situation, but YMMV.
That's exactly what we did. Sold our house that gained $60k in equity inside of 3 years, paid off tons of debt and put a down payment down on a house that was twice the size in a very new neighborhood that only has anywhere to go but up in value. It was totally worth it for someone in our situation, but YMMV.
That's where we pretty much are. Seeing comparables sell for 60k+ over what we paid and we have nicer upgrades/better lot. Hard part if finding a house that fits all my criteria (within budget). New is a decent option but that moves us out of our area that we like so much.
Firehaus
02-03-2015, 12:02
greeley is over 30% increases and 0.9% vacancy rate.
A house on my block sold for 32k two years ago is listed for over 100k. They did maybe 20k of improvements.
Did not realize Greeley was so hot!
.9% vacancy rate should mean new apartment complexes being built. Are you seeing any under construction?
Sent from my iPhone
There are still foreclosures and short sales going in houses with land outside the metro area. Good deals ( compared to the metro area) if you want to drive.
Sent from my iPhone
This is exactly what I want.
Did not realize Greeley was so hot!
.9% vacancy rate should mean new apartment complexes being built. Are you seeing any under construction?
Sent from my iPhonetheres 400 new units in the last 12 months. Atleast 3 hotels in terrible locations being built. 5 more properties that I know of being built.
Firehaus
02-03-2015, 12:21
This is exactly what I want.
$470-$800k is the price range I'm finding them south east of the metro area. Elizabeth and farther out seems to have the best deals.
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RCCrawler
02-03-2015, 12:30
I scored when I bought my house, looked for a long time and picked up a killer deal on a model home that was a short sale.
The house I bought is the largest model in the neighborhood, with all upgrades and a fully finished basement. I bought it four years ago for 36% less than the previous owner OWED on it and 41% less than they paid for it. Less than a month after I bought it the neighbors house (smaller, with an unfinished basement) went up for sale, and sold the first day for 32% more than I paid for my house. Looking at comparables I'd guess now that I would have no issue selling for 50% more than I paid.
It's awful tempting to want to cash out and go find something better with some land like we originally wanted, but we'd be paying an inflated price for that anyway. We love the house, the area is great, the kids have tons of friends here so we'll be here for a while. It is nice knowing though that even if the bubble does pop, we should still be good.
PugnacAutMortem
02-03-2015, 12:34
It seems like the best way to go about it (if you can stomach it) is to sell the current house you're in and cash out on the equity and find a nice rental you can stomach for a year or two. Wait until the market comes back down to earth and then use the proceeds for the new place/land. I personally hate the idea of renting a house or apartment, but that's really the only way you are going to sell high/buy low in the same market.
SamuraiCO
02-03-2015, 12:37
Values going up because of supply and demand. Not much of a bubble but will slow down if interest rates go up. I was pleased to refinance a couple of years ago. Am waiting patiently to find some land or small home on land in the near future.
I just sold my home in north Thornton. We bought it in 11/11 for $208,000. I sold it last week for $297,000.
I know I paid more for my new house but I made crazy money on my old house and was able to get into something bigger and nicer.
Aloha_Shooter
02-03-2015, 13:17
The Obama Administration is already trying to replicate the same dumb-ass moves from the Clinton Administration that created the 2007 bubble in the first place. I will invest in land or other tangibles that can't just be created out of thin air but I'm not going to stick my neck out financing more house than I could afford if I was furloughed for 6 months or my pay was cut by 50%.
mindfold
02-03-2015, 13:28
Just a thought, ever think about renting your current house? Taking the difference between your current payment and the rent you get, and putting that into a new house?
trlcavscout
02-03-2015, 13:28
I don't know about other areas but weld county has seen a big bubble that may be crashing soon. For the last couple years oil field companies have been knocking on doors to get people to sell, and with the displaced flood victims housing is ridiculous and hard to find compared to 5 years ago. My house went up over 100k in 2 years. But with them now shutting down wells and some of the companies shutting down it may crash soon if the natural gas can't keep everyone busy.
Just a thought, ever think about renting your current house? Taking the difference between your current payment and the rent you get, and putting that into a new house?
Less than % 25 of people are willing to do the landlord thing for one reason or another.
Other options include taking the equity and investing it to make something on the side
HoneyBadger
02-03-2015, 14:02
It seems like the best way to go about it (if you can stomach it) is to sell the current house you're in and cash out on the equity and find a nice rental you can stomach for a year or two. Wait until the market comes back down to earth and then use the proceeds for the new place/land. I personally hate the idea of renting a house or apartment, but that's really the only way you are going to sell high/buy low in the same market.
That's pretty ballsy to assume that the market will drop in a year or two. I wouldn't bet $50k on it.
I already have one rental and don't really want another.
Our place is down south of Castle Rock, our place has been on the market for 8 months now. We have had a ton of showings but not even one offer. Honestly I don't get it. We fixed the place up perfect, new everything, windows, paint, doors, deck. It is on probably the best location for the front range. I commuted to the tech center in about 35 minutes, and the same down to colorado springs. The seclusion is truly amazing and for someone like me it is heaven for shooting and hunting. I keep hearing that the market is amazing, sure wish it comedown south just a bit more. Heres a link, (sorry I have to keep plugging this every chance I get[UZI])
http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/7712-E-Greenland-Rd_Franktown_CO_80116_M20191-86694
I love to hear everyone that has made a ton of money, but sometimes real estate is frustrating.
Aloha_Shooter
02-03-2015, 14:10
That's pretty ballsy to assume that the market will drop in a year or two. I wouldn't bet $50k on it.
It all depends on perspective. Personally, I think it's pretty ballsy to sink $50K into a house in certain real estate markets (CA comes to mind) when you know your investment horizon is pretty short and there's a decent chance of both regional and national recessions. I don't know if he thought of it but another reason for Mitt to pull out of the race is that the President in 2020 or 2021 will probably reap the consequences of Obama's malfeasance just as Bush inherited the fiscal house of cards that Clinton built up during the 90s.
ruthabagah
02-03-2015, 14:30
Our place is down south of Castle Rock, our place has been on the market for 8 months now. We have had a ton of showings but not even one offer. Honestly I don't get it. We fixed the place up perfect, new everything, windows, paint, doors, deck. It is on probably the best location for the front range. I commuted to the tech center in about 35 minutes, and the same down to colorado springs. The seclusion is truly amazing and for someone like me it is heaven for shooting and hunting. I keep hearing that the market is amazing, sure wish it comedown south just a bit more. Heres a link, (sorry I have to keep plugging this every chance I get[UZI])
http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/7712-E-Greenland-Rd_Franktown_CO_80116_M20191-86694
I love to hear everyone that has made a ton of money, but sometimes real estate is frustrating.
My dream house when the last kid will be off to college.... 6 years!
HoneyBadger
02-03-2015, 14:38
It all depends on perspective. Personally, I think it's pretty ballsy to sink $50K into a house in certain real estate markets (CA comes to mind) when you know your investment horizon is pretty short and there's a decent chance of both regional and national recessions. I don't know if he thought of it but another reason for Mitt to pull out of the race is that the President in 2020 or 2021 will probably reap the consequences of Obama's malfeasance just as Bush inherited the fiscal house of cards that Clinton built up during the 90s.
Sure. Lots of variables to consider, but Pug said it so "matter-of-factly" that the market will come back down in a year or two. If any of us really knew that for sure, we'd all sell this year.
PugnacAutMortem
02-03-2015, 14:42
Our place is down south of Castle Rock, our place has been on the market for 8 months now. We have had a ton of showings but not even one offer. Honestly I don't get it. We fixed the place up perfect, new everything, windows, paint, doors, deck. It is on probably the best location for the front range. I commuted to the tech center in about 35 minutes, and the same down to colorado springs. The seclusion is truly amazing and for someone like me it is heaven for shooting and hunting. I keep hearing that the market is amazing, sure wish it comedown south just a bit more. Heres a link, (sorry I have to keep plugging this every chance I get[UZI])
http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/7712-E-Greenland-Rd_Franktown_CO_80116_M20191-86694
I love to hear everyone that has made a ton of money, but sometimes real estate is frustrating.
Holy crap you haven't sold that place yet? When I saw it I figured it would be gone within a couple days...that is such a freaking sweet property. A place like yours is the next step up for us...in 15-20 years when our kids are out of the house.
PugnacAutMortem
02-03-2015, 14:46
Sure. Lots of variables to consider, but Pug said it so "matter-of-factly" that the market will come back down in a year or two. If any of us really knew that for sure, we'd all sell this year.
It's a cyclical type of market for sure and it's been on the upswing for the past 5ish years...another couple years and it stands to reason there will be a downturn. Lots of factors involved, of course, and I didn't mean to come across as Nostradamus. From what I see and hear every day at work and from what we saw when we were selling our place earlier last year, my assumption is in a couple years there will be a downturn.
Firehaus
02-03-2015, 14:58
I'm betting things go flatter in 2 years along with the rent increases. I'm very doubtful that the metro area will see a downturn unless something major happens to our local economy.
Millennials are driving a lot of the growth in Denver. Which is why the occupancy on rentals is so low.
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Great-Kazoo
02-03-2015, 15:50
Just a thought, ever think about renting your current house? Taking the difference between your current payment and the rent you get, and putting that into a new house?
How does one deal with the meth lab folks?
We NEVER depend on anyone other than our self for providing.
Your renter looses job or has relationship go south. OOPS you don't notice anything till the rent is 5 days late. They say sorry our business didn't issue payroll till monday, not friday as usual. Ok you say. NOW the rent is 10 days late. Your call goes to VM, text unanswered. Have a neighbor look in and they call back saying the front door is wide open, looks like they left in a hurry. Now leaving $5-15K's worth of damage.
Great-Kazoo
02-03-2015, 15:53
Our place is down south of Castle Rock, our place has been on the market for 8 months now. We have had a ton of showings but not even one offer. Honestly I don't get it. We fixed the place up perfect, new everything, windows, paint, doors, deck. It is on probably the best location for the front range. I commuted to the tech center in about 35 minutes, and the same down to colorado springs. The seclusion is truly amazing and for someone like me it is heaven for shooting and hunting. I keep hearing that the market is amazing, sure wish it comedown south just a bit more. Heres a link, (sorry I have to keep plugging this every chance I get[UZI])
http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/7712-E-Greenland-Rd_Franktown_CO_80116_M20191-86694
I love to hear everyone that has made a ton of money, but sometimes real estate is frustrating.
Holy crap you haven't sold that place yet? When I saw it I figured it would be gone within a couple days...that is such a freaking sweet property. A place like yours is the next step up for us...in 15-20 years when our kids are out of the house.
When people get over the $4-500K mark. They are very selective / Picky. Most buyers in this area (Front Range) who are dropping $$ usually want those 4K + sq ft homes with short acreage / hobby farm. They want close to everything in a urban setting. Also the $450+ homes are slower movers
$470-$800k is the price range I'm finding them south east of the metro area. Elizabeth and farther out seems to have the best deals.
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Haha. I'll likely never be able to afford that in my life. Thanks for the heads up though.
mindfold
02-03-2015, 16:00
How does one deal with the meth lab folks?
We NEVER depend on anyone other than our self for providing.
Your renter looses job or has relationship go south. OOPS you don't notice anything till the rent is 5 days late. They say sorry our business didn't issue payroll till monday, not friday as usual. Ok you say. NOW the rent is 10 days late. Your call goes to VM, text unanswered. Have a neighbor look in and they call back saying the front door is wide open, looks like they left in a hurry. Now leaving $5-15K's worth of damage.
Of course you would need to look into each person you rent to. Treat it like any other business. Background checks, agencies, ect. I have a rental and I have always done well. It is not for everyone. It is an investment and you must measure the risk vs reward.
"We NEVER depend on anyone other than our self for providing." is a falacy. Even if you own your own business, you depend on customers.
And yes, if I had a rental in Greeley I would worry about the meth labs too! [Sarcasm2]
The market is hot for sub 400k homes right now. Under $200k in Castle Rock is a baron wasteland. $2-300k has some stuff but not anything I want. $300k-$400k is where you can find nice homes but you're over paying by $50-100k, in my non-professional opinion.
Of course you would need to look into each person you rent to. Treat it like any other business. Background checks, agencies, ect. I have a rental and I have always done well. It is not for everyone. It is an investment and you must measure the risk vs reward.
"We NEVER depend on anyone other than our self for providing." is a falacy. Even if you own your own business, you depend on customers.
And yes, if I had a rental in Greeley I would worry about the meth labs too! [Sarcasm2] I evicted a unc professor after she got into drugs and started whoring from my rental.
The worst tenants my dad ever had was a doctor couple.
Background checks only do so much.
BushMasterBoy
02-03-2015, 16:34
I keep searching for bugout land. Stuff that has water, or a mine shaft, or something peculiar that give me a huge advantage. Mini mansions and dense population areas are the last place I want to be.
Firehaus
02-03-2015, 16:57
The market is hot for sub 400k homes right now. Under $200k in Castle Rock is a baron wasteland. $2-300k has some stuff but not anything I want. $300k-$400k is where you can find nice homes but you're over paying by $50-100k, in my non-professional opinion.
I agree, but with the Castle Rock population forecasted to double by 2030, I'm guessing it will only keep going up. It's really the rate of going up that is up in the air.
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Firehaus
02-03-2015, 17:00
I keep searching for bugout land. Stuff that has water, or a mine shaft, or something peculiar that give me a huge advantage. Mini mansions and dense population areas are the last place I want to be.
Having a smaller house in the metro area and some property in the mountains is something I'm considering. I saw a mine go for sale up near twin lakes that you could atv up through and come out at the top of the mountain. Not too practical, but cool.
Sent from my iPhone
I agree, but with the Castle Rock population forecasted to double by 2030, I'm guessing it will only keep going up. It's really the rate of going up that is up in the air.
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That's what I'm hung up on. I don't see how Castle Rock doesn't keep going up, al biet at a slower rate, worst case scenario. Castle Rock is the next Highlands Ranch.
Firehaus
02-03-2015, 17:43
That's what I'm hung up on. I don't see how Castle Rock doesn't keep going up, al biet at a slower rate, worst case scenario. Castle Rock is the next Highlands Ranch.
I believe it will be. It's not as far as people think it is to south metro and you really do seem to get about an extra $100k worth of house vs south metro area for your money.
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Great-Kazoo
02-03-2015, 17:52
Of course you would need to look into each person you rent to. Treat it like any other business. Background checks, agencies, ect. I have a rental and I have always done well. It is not for everyone. It is an investment and you must measure the risk vs reward.
"We NEVER depend on anyone other than our self for providing." is a falacy. Even if you own your own business, you depend on customers.
And yes, if I had a rental in Greeley I would worry about the meth labs too! [Sarcasm2]
We're discussing homes , price of, market sustainability, not a business. That yes, depends on customers. Believe me the spouse and i can and have in the past done well, by our self. She's low maintenance. Some peoples wives want jewelry, expensive things for b-days, Christmas etc. My spouse asked for a chainsaw 1 year. New holster and optic, the next.
The most expensive thing she ever asked for was ...............................................A divorce ;)
I evicted a unc professor after she got into drugs and started whoring from my rental.
The worst tenants my dad ever had was a doctor couple.
Background checks only do so much.
Exactly why I will never own a rental again. Ever.
I almost went down the rental route...kinda glad I didn't!
Madeinhb
02-04-2015, 20:16
I'm looking for a house now. Market is crazy mainly due to supply and demand. Lots of people moved here for the pot (my opinion) and economy. Anything under $300k is gone quick.
It really sucks. But I'm not going to overpay for something.
Busta Prima
02-04-2015, 21:10
About the 1/2 mil price range . . . yes, it's very slow. I've been on for well over a year. I'm getting lots of showings now. They seemed to pick up in October. Still no offers though. Very frustrating.
Great-Kazoo
02-04-2015, 22:23
I'm looking for a house now. Market is crazy mainly due to supply and demand. Lots of people moved here for the pot (my opinion) and economy. Anything under $300k is gone quick.
It really sucks. But I'm not going to overpay for something.
Where you looking and how far / long a commute you'd like to keep it at ?
Madeinhb
02-04-2015, 22:27
Where you looking and how far / long a commute you'd like to keep it at ?
Been looking at Broomfield, Thornton, some parts of Brighton, Westminster, Arvada, Southern Aurora, Centennial.
I work in Lowry and the drive from Broomfield to Lowry sucks. But at same time, need to get into something.
Great-Kazoo
02-04-2015, 22:31
Been looking at Broomfield, Thornton, some parts of Brighton, Westminster, Arvada, Southern Aurora, Centennial.
I work in Lowry and the drive from Broomfield to Lowry sucks. But at same time, need to get into something.
Too bad Lowry's a drive from up here. I know a nice place that's coming up.
Firehaus
02-05-2015, 00:43
Article on the Denver economy and future issues it might have.
http://www.bizjournals.com/denver/blog/finance_etc/2015/02/vectra-forecast-colorado-economy-doing-well-but.html?ana=lnk
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Madeinhb
02-05-2015, 10:45
Too bad Lowry's a drive from up here. I know a nice place that's coming up.
Haha oh ya? Yours? Lol
I've seen CO real estate since 1997.
It has a lead relative to other states. I think our housings were actually as expensive as Los Angeles around 1999. CO market is somewhat kinda like leading indicator. As said, Chicago and suburb is still suffering from the short sales and foreclosures.
Next housing bubble might be from CA. There are too many multiple home owners who paid cash , and they are speculating. Lots of them are foreigners.
Great-Kazoo
02-05-2015, 12:39
Haha oh ya? Yours? Lol
Yes. it's worth the drive ;)
I've seen CO real estate since 1997.
It has a lead relative to other states. I think our housings were actually as expensive as Los Angeles around 1999. CO market is somewhat kinda like leading indicator. As said, Chicago and suburb is still suffering from the short sales and foreclosures.
Next housing bubble might be from CA. There are too many multiple home owners who paid cash , and they are speculating. Lots of them are foreigners.
CA Real Estate is in the crapper at this time. Those $250 - 300K + homes, $175 - 225 now This is based on actual sales from Jan 2015 while we were browsing the market.
One can purchase a 10ac lot / home for $200 ~.. UNFORTUNATELY CA is not NFA friendly, or we'd be gone.
Madeinhb
02-05-2015, 13:54
Yes. it's worth the drive ;)
Haha depends on where and price.
HoneyBadger
02-05-2015, 14:13
Yes. it's worth the drive ;)
CA Real Estate is in the crapper at this time. Those $250 - 300K + homes, $175 - 225 now This is based on actual sales from Jan 2015 while we were browsing the market.
One can purchase a 10ac lot / home for $200 ~.. UNFORTUNATELY CA is not NFA friendly, or we'd be gone.
I just looked at a house there that sold for $585k in 2005 and then sold/shorted for $261k in 2012. [facepalm] It's listed for $310k right now. If CA is going to "bubble", I think it is just starting and won't pop for several years. In fact, I'm betting a lot of money on it.
Yes. it's worth the drive ;)
CA Real Estate is in the crapper at this time. Those $250 - 300K + homes, $175 - 225 now This is based on actual sales from Jan 2015 while we were browsing the market.
One can purchase a 10ac lot / home for $200 ~.. UNFORTUNATELY CA is not NFA friendly, or we'd be gone.
I just looked at a house there that sold for $585k in 2005 and then sold/shorted for $261k in 2012. [facepalm] It's listed for $310k right now. If CA is going to "bubble", I think it is just starting and won't pop for several years. In fact, I'm betting a lot of money on it.
yes.
Los Angeles and other 3 surrounding counties tend to catch up after CO. SF and bay areas are little different.
HoneyBadger
02-05-2015, 16:05
yes.
Los Angeles and other 3 surrounding counties tend to catch up after CO. SF and bay areas are little different.
I'll be right in between LA and SF.
Just the thought of all those Californians just makes me want to [off-yourself]
Great-Kazoo
02-05-2015, 17:12
I'll be right in between LA and SF.
Just the thought of all those Californians just makes me want to [off-yourself]
You mad Bro ?
Could be worse. You could be in the bay area. There rent / housing has 5 digits.
HoneyBadger
02-05-2015, 18:37
You mad Bro ?
Could be worse. You could be in the bay area. There rent / housing has 5 digits.
Truth.
Aloha_Shooter
02-05-2015, 21:25
I suspect the area HoneyBadger will be in will be fairly stable just because of the limited availability and continued presence of a major AFB but there is no way I believe Denver housings were comparable in price with LA circa 1999 (or any other time). I knew far too many people PCSing to LA around that timeframe and the baths they took with trying to get off-base housing. I also believe CA is already in a housing bubble; if I were going there now, I'd rent rather than buy and I'd be renting out my Colorado home to pay off the mortgage and get my homeowner tax deduction (but I won't be going there -- I've already told my employer that my pets and my guns are illegal in CA so there's nothing that would induce me to go there).
I suspect the area HoneyBadger will be in will be fairly stable just because of the limited availability and continued presence of a major AFB but there is no way I believe Denver housings were comparable in price with LA circa 1999 (or any other time). I knew far too many people PCSing to LA around that timeframe and the baths they took with trying to get off-base housing. I also believe CA is already in a housing bubble; if I were going there now, I'd rent rather than buy and I'd be renting out my Colorado home to pay off the mortgage and get my homeowner tax deduction (but I won't be going there -- I've already told my employer that my pets and my guns are illegal in CA so there's nothing that would induce me to go there).
Depends on which LA and surrounding area it is. Santa Monica, Westwood, Beverly hills, NO
Crappy places like Carson, Fullerton, Torrance area might be more suitable pricing relative to Denver metro at that time.
ChunkyMonkey
02-05-2015, 21:50
Things are out of control here. We've touched on it in some other threads but no dedicated thread. What are your thoughts on the real estate market? It has to pop again at some point, right? Is Colorado insulated enough based on the masses of people seemingly flocking here? So many people are selling and taking the crazy equity while they can it makes me wonder on what to do.
Do you see an end to it? Would you sell and take what you can now and roll it over to a different home if you could find one with some nice upgrades you wanted, even if you don't need them yet? Try to wait a little longer and let it grow even more?
How do you see the Colorado real estate market, current and future?
I am telling everyone to slow down and take their time to buy. If you are a seller, sell now. This mini bubble won't last long. The numbers just don't add up. We are doing 5-7 purchases a month but pushing dozens more to wait if they can.
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Madeinhb
02-05-2015, 21:50
I'll be right in between LA and SF.
Just the thought of all those Californians just makes me want to [off-yourself]
Not all of us are bad haha
I am telling everyone to slow down and take their time to buy. If you are a seller, sell now. This mini bubble won't last long. The numbers just don't add up. We are doing 5-7 purchases a month but pushing dozens more to wait if they can.
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What's your predicted time frame for this mini bubble? I think it is reasonable for me to remodel my bathrooms and compete done other updating projects to get our place up to the comps in my neighborhood, but will a year be enough time? I just refinanced and the comps the bank was quoting for our neighborhood were ridiculous. I wouldn't pay what they said my place is worth. But I'd gladly sell and move future out to some fixer upper or foreclosure on some land.
ChunkyMonkey
02-05-2015, 22:15
In my opinion, we have 50% chance of flat market late summer 2015 with the expected interest raise. We are strictly talking about Denver metro market. El Paso, western slope are not seeing the kind of spike we are seeing here.
On the other hand there is a smaller chance that the market will continue its climbing due to the large influx of investors money into the metro area.
Hard money guys are back. But they are very market specific. Generally, Commercial property vacancy stays the same at best case.
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What's your predicted time frame for this mini bubble? I think it is reasonable for me to remodel my bathrooms and compete done other updating projects to get our place up to the comps in my neighborhood, but will a year be enough time? I just refinanced and the comps the bank was quoting for our neighborhood were ridiculous. I wouldn't pay what they said my place is worth. But I'd gladly sell and move future out to some fixer upper or foreclosure on some land.
curious to this as well
Firehaus
02-05-2015, 22:33
Generally, Commercial property vacancy stays the same at best case.
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Denver just rated #1 for commercial
http://www.bizjournals.com/denver/blog/real_deals/2015/02/denver-is-best-commercial-real-estate-market-in-u.html
Also, just read a report where Denver was at 4.9 jobs per unit in multifamily.
I was told last summer that a lot of rental houses scooped up in packages during the crash by major companies will be slowly trickling into the market this year. They bought them around $200k and now they are around $400k. So once that happens it will slow the upward pressure on metro home prices. Something like 20,000 rental homes was the number.
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ChunkyMonkey
02-05-2015, 23:08
Denver just rated #1 for commercial
http://www.bizjournals.com/denver/blog/real_deals/2015/02/denver-is-best-commercial-real-estate-market-in-u.html
Also, just read a report where Denver was at 4.9 jobs per unit in multifamily.
I was told last summer that a lot of rental houses scooped up in packages during the crash by major companies will be slowly trickling into the market this year. They bought them around $200k and now they are around $400k. So once that happens it will slow the upward pressure on metro home prices. Something like 20,000 rental homes was the number.
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The new builds what keep the vacancy rate staying at the same level. Like I said the numbers don't add up.
In addition to your comment, yes, many landlords are dumping their portfolio slowly. I am one of them.
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We sold our apartment 4th quarter last year and have money that we're not sure what we want to do with yet.
Great-Kazoo
02-05-2015, 23:20
We sold our apartment 4th quarter last year and have money that we're not sure what we want to do with yet.
Save it for a rainy day. Trust me, there's a storm a comin. BUT be prepared to yank it out of banks / investments before everyone else starts. I'm not an investor, have a portfolio ,or play one on radio. However we've seen this before and the end of the story wasn't a happy one.
Firehaus
02-05-2015, 23:41
We sold our apartment 4th quarter last year and have money that we're not sure what we want to do with yet.
You didn't 1031 into something else? I won't be selling unless I have a clear path to move into another property.
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Firehaus
02-06-2015, 00:00
The new builds what keep the vacancy rate staying at the same level. Like I said the numbers don't add up.
In addition to your comment, yes, many landlords are dumping their portfolio slowly. I am one of them.
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The 4.9 jobs per unit was presented as a speculation that lending would tighten for new apartment builds in 2015.
West metro ended last year with a 3.2% vacancy rate and rents are still forecasted to increase another 12% like last year.
I was told that the 20,000 homes were held by maybe just few large entities.
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Don't want to sell high and then turn around and buy high. Looking forward to the wife selling her rental. We'll probably continue to put money into the primary residence to up our resale value at some point in the not-to-distant future.
You didn't 1031 into something else? I won't be selling unless I have a clear path to move into another property.
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I don't remember why this was not an issue for us. I'll have to ask.
rockhound
02-06-2015, 08:08
Our place is down south of Castle Rock, our place has been on the market for 8 months now. We have had a ton of showings but not even one offer. Honestly I don't get it. We fixed the place up perfect, new everything, windows, paint, doors, deck. It is on probably the best location for the front range. I commuted to the tech center in about 35 minutes, and the same down to colorado springs. The seclusion is truly amazing and for someone like me it is heaven for shooting and hunting. I keep hearing that the market is amazing, sure wish it comedown south just a bit more. Heres a link, (sorry I have to keep plugging this every chance I get[UZI])
http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/7712-E-Greenland-Rd_Franktown_CO_80116_M20191-86694
The issue you have in Castle Rock are is the extreme amount of new housing being built. You can't sell an existing home inCastle Rock right now. Everyone coming in wants a new home. I had a client that started out in Bailey and we swound up in Castle Rock, they bought an existing home because they are sofisticated enough to understand the value they received. Thenew homes are appealing, but the existing home in Castle Rock right now is a better value, all the extras that are not included in a new home purchase have already been done.
It just takes finding the right buyer who can see the value in already having landscaping etc., but if you are thinking you are going to get new home pricing for your existing home your are incorrect. You will need to be a better value and that means less money.
I love to hear everyone that has made a ton of money, but sometimes real estate is frustrating.
rockhound
02-06-2015, 08:48
Pricing is definitely up, the rental market is crazy tight right now. Unless you have the kind of equity in your home that makes sense to sell now you are cutting your own throat to sell and go find something else.
Pricing at the moment for a listing agent is what I call spaghetti real estate, throw it at the wall and see if it sticks. All we can do on a buyer's agent side is make sure that the home is in good shape and that the buyer does not over pay compared to the other recent sales in the neighborhood. Anyone in the business that guarantees you 2-3 years from now the home will be worth what you paid for it today is just making wind. The volatility in todays market makes it impossible to honestly make that statement.
I am even in the decision making process over my own home right now. Three years ago I bought a 3600 sf foreclosure on four acres with a view for 1/2 the going rate in my neighborhood. I dumped 80K cash into renovations (just materials, i am a former contractor), and built a huge shop/garage, I am sitting easily right now on 160-180K in equity if i were to sell. But then what? To replace this house right now would run me $500K or more. Even if i take my equity and put it all down on the next home I will add an extra $130K onto my mortgage. Combine that with the interest on that bigger mortgage and I am not getting ahead at all.
So at what point do you have enough equity to make it make sense?
The market in the mountains is even tighter than in town right now. We have almost nothing to sell. What used to be Mountain Park East in the MLS, basically Kenosha pass to Pine Junction on the Park County side carries at any one time 120-180 homes for sale over the last 6 years. Currently we have 37. 10 that are not worth owning and 10 that are over priced leaving about 17 to choose from.....
I showed a home in my own neighborhood the other morning. While my buyer and I were there for an hour the home was shown by three other brokers in the same time frame.
With the rentals rates going through the roof and the replacement for your home being more than it may be worth I am not convinced it is the time to sell and move. The ones who are making out in this market are the people who are selling and moving to a less expensive market.
HoneyBadger
02-06-2015, 09:48
The ones who are making out in this market are the people who are selling and moving to a less expensive market.
Bingo!
Great-Kazoo
02-06-2015, 09:58
The ones who are making out in this market are the people who are selling and moving to a less expensive market.
That's us to a T. We have lot's of equity. However buying what we want within our means, says we have to look in areas other than urban. Again what we would like. We could sell NOW, being patient may give us more down the road, due mostly to equity.
Madeinhb
02-06-2015, 10:57
Exactly. I told my wife don't look for something to get with the possibility of moving to something else later. Can't predict future - so wait and get what we want.
Anyone know the CO rules on selling a rental home currently leased? I looked through my copy of the lease and don't see any thing regarding the sale of the property. I'm looking at what comps are selling for and I would really like to put it up. Lease has one year left (2 year lease).
Anyone know the CO rules on selling a rental home currently leased? I looked through my copy of the lease and don't see any thing regarding the sale of the property. I'm looking at what comps are selling for and I would really like to put it up. Lease has one year left (2 year lease).
Unless your tenants agree to some sort of early termination of the lease you'll have to sell to someone who's willing to assume the current lease.
BTW, www.REI.com has an excellent resource in it's forums for real estate investors.
Yeah, that's what I was reading. Ugh. 12 months left on this lease so we're close and Castle Rock could/should hang in for that long with the prices. I was thinking of offering a cash kick back to the tenants to help offset a rent increase at a new place over the next 12 months? Or seeing if they wanted to buy it at a discounted price.
Firehaus
02-06-2015, 16:20
Yeah, that's what I was reading. Ugh. 12 months left on this lease so we're close and Castle Rock could/should hang in for that long with the prices. I was thinking of offering a cash kick back to the tenants to help offset a rent increase at a new place over the next 12 months? Or seeing if they wanted to buy it at a discounted price.
A free month or two of rent while the house is on the market can entice people as well.
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You didn't 1031 into something else? I won't be selling unless I have a clear path to move into another property.
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We needed to exit the market we were in as the neighborhood was going down hill quickly (someone was actually killed in one of the buildings two days after sale). We didn't make enough for the taxes to hurt too bad, and the taxes were a better deal than paying the same inflated prices in the same area.
Otherwise, I totally agree. Having an exit plan is equally, if not more important than having an entry plan, imo.
Having an exit plan is equally, if not more important than having an entry plan, imo.
Good dating advice right there.
Madeinhb
02-06-2015, 17:15
We needed to exit the market we were in as the neighborhood was going down hill quickly (someone was actually killed in one of the buildings two days after sale). We didn't make enough for the taxes to hurt too bad, and the taxes were a better deal than paying the same inflated prices in the same area.
Otherwise, I totally agree. Having an exit plan is equally, if not more important than having an entry plan, imo.
Damn, where do you live?
Great-Kazoo
02-06-2015, 17:40
Damn, where do you live?
On a roof, covered with snow.
Damn, where do you live?
This was in Aurora, and we didn't live there, just owned the building. The issue was that other buildings in the area were owned by investors that lived out of state. No one ever put any face time in at the properties to chase out the thugs and riff-raff. Stuff started spilling over to our building, and our mentors buildings (three around ours). The police actually beat the door of our place down looking for someone two buildings down (police had the wrong address). Our mentor decided she wanted out of the area, and we were concerned that another out of state buyer would purchase her buildings and the problem would increase.
Sure enough, when we sold all four buildings together as a package, the buyer was an Australian Rugby coach. Kind of sucked that the neighborhood went to crap, but we were out numbered by too many owners that didn't care enough to manage their properties.
RblDiver
02-06-2015, 18:32
So, perhaps this is a decent place to put this question, perhaps not, but forgive me if it's the latter :) I'm looking to become a first-time homeowner. I'm 30, single, and make a decent living. At the moment, seeing how low interest rates are, I'd like to get a house. Well, reading what you all are saying, plus seeing the places on the market, I'm not sure whether it's better to buy or build (or wait). Frankly, I don't like moving, so while it's conceivable I'd end up moving if I get married, say, ideally I'd like to have a place I'd be reasonably comfortable in over the course of the mortgage.
I was wondering, about what would it cost to build a modest house (say, 3-4 bed, 2-3 bath, that sort of thing)? I know there are a million variables (such as location: I'd be looking around the Longmont area, possibly out towards the Weld side of I25 but that general vicinity, not down in Denver), but precisely because of those variables and because I don't know what I want, it's hard to figure out how much it'd cost. So, I'm looking for a ballpark guesstimate, like "Probably between $100k-150k". That way I might have a tiiiiny bit better idea of whether to just look for a house flat-out or look at land to build on (my preference would be land, but given what I have at the moment it's not as likely).
(My parents keep pushing me to a townhome or apartment, but I've lived in apartments for a number of years and would rather get a house. I know it's more work and I'm bad at that sort of thing, but I think it being mine would give me more vested interest in such maintenance).
Any other thoughts and suggestions for a first-time buyer would be welcome too! Thanks in advance!
Town homes are deceptively attractive to first time home buyers, but are difficult to get rid of without taking a loss. I'd own a townhouse as a rental in a heart beat, but would not personally want one as my primary residence. Renting a townhouse was very desirable when I rented one.
Madeinhb
02-06-2015, 20:56
We have been looking all over and have debated about aurora but looking south in cherry creek school districts. I have no idea how aurora is
Aurora is very large. There are very nice areas of Aurora. Knowing absolutely nothing about you at all, I'm confident that you won't be looking for houses anywhere near where our place was.
Firehaus
02-06-2015, 22:38
We needed to exit the market we were in as the neighborhood was going down hill quickly (someone was actually killed in one of the buildings two days after sale). We didn't make enough for the taxes to hurt too bad, and the taxes were a better deal than paying the same inflated prices in the same area.
Otherwise, I totally agree. Having an exit plan is equally, if not more important than having an entry plan, imo.
I was warned by my broker to stay away from Aurora multifamily due to what you described.
Glad you made it out okay financially and physically!
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EvilRhino
02-06-2015, 22:39
We have been looking all over and have debated about aurora but looking south in cherry creek school districts. I have no idea how aurora is
Pretty much anything SE of 225/Iliff is decent. Not Rapsheet Field's aurora. Blue collar, etc. I think South of Hampden is CC schools, and Mission Viejo is the best entry level neighborhood there. My first house was at Yale/Chambers and never had a problem.
There is a neighborhood SE of Quincy and buckley with smaller homes, no basements, but much lower prices.
It was okay for a while, and our mentor's specialty was buying crack houses and cleaning them up. However, when every other building on the block is full of bad people and no one is around to police them, it becomes a fruitless fight. Other than that, it made okay money, but since that was our first venture into commercial real estate I have nothing to compare it to.
Firehaus
02-06-2015, 22:45
It was okay for a while, and our mentor's specialty was buying crack houses and cleaning them up. However, when every other building on the block is full of bad people and no one is around to police them, it becomes a fruitless fight. Other than that, it made okay money, but since that was our first venture into commercial real estate I have nothing to compare it to.
I was glad mine was pretty much already flipped and redone. New roof, boiler, etc.
Also glad it was an off market purchase.
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So, perhaps this is a decent place to put this question, perhaps not, but forgive me if it's the latter :) I'm looking to become a first-time homeowner. I'm 30, single, and make a decent living. At the moment, seeing how low interest rates are, I'd like to get a house. Well, reading what you all are saying, plus seeing the places on the market, I'm not sure whether it's better to buy or build (or wait). Frankly, I don't like moving, so while it's conceivable I'd end up moving if I get married, say, ideally I'd like to have a place I'd be reasonably comfortable in over the course of the mortgage.
I was wondering, about what would it cost to build a modest house (say, 3-4 bed, 2-3 bath, that sort of thing)? I know there are a million variables (such as location: I'd be looking around the Longmont area, possibly out towards the Weld side of I25 but that general vicinity, not down in Denver), but precisely because of those variables and because I don't know what I want, it's hard to figure out how much it'd cost. So, I'm looking for a ballpark guesstimate, like "Probably between $100k-150k". That way I might have a tiiiiny bit better idea of whether to just look for a house flat-out or look at land to build on (my preference would be land, but given what I have at the moment it's not as likely).
(My parents keep pushing me to a townhome or apartment, but I've lived in apartments for a number of years and would rather get a house. I know it's more work and I'm bad at that sort of thing, but I think it being mine would give me more vested interest in such maintenance).
Any other thoughts and suggestions for a first-time buyer would be welcome too! Thanks in advance!
similar situation 28 single 215k isn is the upper limits.
building is roughly 100-200 dollars a sq ft depending on the level of finish you want. Smaller houses the cost per sq ft is higher. This does not take into account utilities tapping fees which can run in the high thousands for example sewers
Finding a decent lot in the metro area at least looking at least 100k. Much more in desirable neighborhoods tack on a bigger house and it is cheaper to buy an existing home. Trying to find anything under 250k and it lasting more than the weekend before under contract is rare.
Also glad it was an off market purchase.
This is important for anyone trying to get into rental properties. Don't try to buy stuff off the MLS. You need to network with people who know stuff is going to be put up for sale so you can buy it before it gets listed.
Aloha_Shooter
02-06-2015, 23:57
So, perhaps this is a decent place to put this question, perhaps not, but forgive me if it's the latter :) I'm looking to become a first-time homeowner. I'm 30, single, and make a decent living. At the moment, seeing how low interest rates are, I'd like to get a house. Well, reading what you all are saying, plus seeing the places on the market, I'm not sure whether it's better to buy or build (or wait). Frankly, I don't like moving, so while it's conceivable I'd end up moving if I get married, say, ideally I'd like to have a place I'd be reasonably comfortable in over the course of the mortgage.
I can almost assure you that you will move at some point, particularly if you get married. Look at your residence as an investment but be smart and patient with it. Find a buyer's broker you can trust and lay out your desire for a residence that will appreciate over time. For any place you consider, think about it from the standpoint of a potential future buyer: why would they want to buy it (or not)? How is the local school district (may not matter to you or me as singles but it will likely matter to any prospective buyer so in the end it DOES matter to us)? How long have nearby comps spent on the market over the past 3-4 years? How stable is the local economy? What are rents for comps going for in case you want to move out but rent it out?
Tastes evolve over time so I wouldn't bother building your dream retirement home now. Plan on moving into something more comfortable as you can afford it and as your lifestyle changes (but not too often). Realize closing costs are just that -- costs -- and don't let the fact you can roll some or all of them into your loan fool you. At the end of things, you will buy for X and sell for Y. Anything that adds to X is eventually a cost you bear. If your agent/broker starts talking about thinking about it in terms of monthly payments, think real hard about leaving.
Try to make sure you have at least 3 months worth of payments socked away in cash in case something interrupts your employment. If you don't, think about what you have to do to be there.
There's nothing inherently wrong with apartments, condos, or townhouses but in addition to thinking about how happy you'd be living in the place, think about how easy it would be to sell when you make more money, meet the perfect spouse, and inevitably have to move to something better. If you think you'd have problems selling or renting it out then perhaps you shouldn't be buying it.
Firehaus
02-07-2015, 00:07
This is important for anyone trying to get into rental properties. Don't try to buy stuff off the MLS. You need to network with people who know stuff is going to be put up for sale so you can buy it before it gets listed.
Most definitely.
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Madeinhb
02-07-2015, 00:44
Pretty much anything SE of 225/Iliff is decent. Not Rapsheet Field's aurora. Blue collar, etc. I think South of Hampden is CC schools, and Mission Viejo is the best entry level neighborhood there. My first house was at Yale/Chambers and never had a problem.
There is a neighborhood SE of Quincy and buckley with smaller homes, no basements, but much lower prices.
Yea I like the mission Viejo area. Reminds me of back home in commiefornia
Any other thoughts and suggestions for a first-time buyer would be welcome too! Thanks in advance!
I agree with the advice about finding a good buyers agent that you can trust, someone that knows the area you're interested in can be very helpful. If you find someone that has worked the area for a while they'll be able to provide a lot of advice that someone from outside the area can't. We've been working with the same brokers in Highlands Ranch for 13 years now and they know the area backwards and forwards.
Also watch out for common mistakes like a house that backs or sides to a road (just make sure you pay accordingly if you get one). You may think the fact you have no neighbors and a beautiful creek behind your house will be a selling point but many, many buyers will only notice the road that's 1/4 mile away, even if you can't hear it.
Google any neighborhood you're looking at as well, for example - http://www.vsss.com/template.php?id=47
What I like to do when looking for a house is use a combination of tools to research the area before having the broker pull comps. Zillow can give some good info on current homes listed and previous sales (nice because you can use the satellite view to research an area), the listing data on Zillow is also cool. Another tool I use is the county assessor site (should be able to find one for just about any area), you can see when the house last sold, how much it sold for and what the neighbors have paid. Many times you can also get an idea what's going on with the sale, you see a lot of houses purchased by a couple and then quit claimed from the husband to the wife before going up for sale.
Lastly, once you have a good idea what you want, have your broker set up a search for you. We're currently getting emails of every 4+ bedroom home with over 5 acres and a private well that hits the market in Douglas and Elbert counties.
Aloha_Shooter
02-07-2015, 23:25
By the way, Zillow (http://www.zillow.com) is your friend. It's kind of scary how they can compile information.
Firehaus
04-23-2015, 14:45
Any updates on the real estate market?
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I'm on hold with my rental due to the lease. It expires in March of '16 and I'll make a choice then based on the market but things are still going up so I hope it holds.
At that point, we may look at selling our primary home too if we find a home that we just have to have. Until then, we just put new counters in the kitchen and will continue to upgrade what we can before sell time. Houses in my neighborhood are regularly going for $70-100k more than we paid so we hope that holds also.
Everything I read/hear says CO will continue to grow at a steady rate. But who knows for sure.
Firehaus
04-23-2015, 15:49
I've been hearing/ reading mostly the same thing.
Commercial real-estate vacancy was 2%, rentals 4%ish, unemployment in Douglas county 3.5%.
People who foreclosed a previous home were returning to the market slowly, but financing is still an issue. Especially for non-qm type people like myself who are independent.
What are you seeing Monkey?
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Still moving quick under 300k most homes going for more than asking with no buyer concessions list on Thursdays contract by Monday
I refinanced my town home in February. The appraisal came in at 232K, which is very cheap for Broomfield. Now, 2.5 months later, several of my neighbors are selling in the 250's and 60's. I sure hope they get it...
rockhound
04-23-2015, 16:51
Actually zillow is not your friend at all.
As a buyer's agent i can tell you that zillow is often as much as two years behind the information, in addition they are losing their feeds from the mls and are not up to date, there is lawsuit
After lawsuit over their price estimations, trulia and zillow do not automatically get information on listings in colorado, the agent has to request the listing be shared. There are many listings that never go to zillow
I have seen home listed as sold that are not, homes for sale that are not, the listings that are incorrect are often using stolen information from agent websites, zillow has many lawsuits filed by large agencies that did not agree to share the information
If you are searching on line for homes Recolorado is a better resource as they are a direct consumer link to the Denver mls, metrolist
Better yet find a good buyer's agent and get the real story
Fat fingered from my phone
Madeinhb
04-23-2015, 17:06
Any updates on the real estate market?
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Still going up and will continue to. With our economy booming and people moving here, the demand is high. However, the inventory is extremely low.
Great-Kazoo
04-23-2015, 17:50
I've been hearing/ reading mostly the same thing.
Commercial real-estate vacancy was 2%, rentals 4%ish, unemployment in Douglas county 3.5%.
People who foreclosed a previous home were returning to the market slowly, but financing is still an issue. Especially for non-qm type people like myself who are independent.
What are you seeing Monkey?
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Guy we just picked up some livestock from said his neighbor put the FOR SALE sign out front Monday morn. As he's walking away guy pulls in ask how much. SOLD within the first 30 min. That's more the anomaly then most. In this part of town houses on small lots 3bd 2 bath 1.5 car garage NO HOA'S COVENANTS ETC. selling for $280 + 1 week sale / listing time, 2 tops.
ChunkyMonkey
04-25-2015, 08:36
I've been hearing/ reading mostly the same thing.
Commercial real-estate vacancy was 2%, rentals 4%ish, unemployment in Douglas county 3.5%.
People who foreclosed a previous home were returning to the market slowly, but financing is still an issue. Especially for non-qm type people like myself who are independent.
What are you seeing Monkey?
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Yeah (sigh) few members here who are using us can attest to this.
Don't forgot the west coast investors who have been waiting for this market are here in force.
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ChunkyMonkey
04-25-2015, 08:40
By the way, Zillow (http://www.zillow.com) is your friend. It's kind of scary how they can compile information.
Zillow is outdated by a week. That's pretty bad when the market is going by the minutes.
Zillow zestimate is also off if the property is on certain area where compensating factor is a huge thing. Ie back into the highway, your 400k sits behind a million dollar subdivision etc etc.
It's a great tool but I have guys come up to me thinking they are experts because of zillow and got disappointed by their appraisal...
Fyi
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Zillow is just plain wrong in some cases. I can give you an adress and show 4 things that are completely off. I just looked up my rental...
kidicarus13
04-25-2015, 14:14
Anyone needs a home inspector, I'll hook you up. Multiple forum references to boot. :)
Galaxy Note II + Tapatalk 2
I thought you were an advanced firearms instrustor.
Firehaus
04-25-2015, 14:20
Zillow should just be part of your search tools since the user interface is so easy to use.
I copy and paste the MLS # into recolorado.com for more accurate info. I'd use it more if it didn't suck so much on mobile!
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Another day of looking at houses, this time in Littleton. Most between Dry Creek and Arapahoe west of I-25 where 300k is getting you a 1 story ranch with 3 small bedrooms and 2ish bathrooms. The ones in this price range are all in need of some remodeling and updates like windows and doors. We're heading up to Westminster tomorrow to check the houses in the NW area. We are going through the Homes for Heroes program since we'll be using a VA loan and the lender and realtor give rebates towards the closing costs.
kidicarus13
04-25-2015, 14:33
I own two small businesses. :D
Galaxy Note II + Tapatalk 2
Gotcha
Aloha_Shooter
04-25-2015, 17:56
Zillow is outdated by a week. That's pretty bad when the market is going by the minutes.
Zillow zestimate is also off if the property is on certain area where compensating factor is a huge thing. Ie back into the highway, your 400k sits behind a million dollar subdivision etc etc.
I just meant it's a handy tool to get a lot of info on the properties you're considering or your competition. I take their estimates with a 5 lb bag of salt -- especially in specialty markets -- as their estimates were all way too low for the market in Hawaii even in 2008-2009.
Actually Zillow is off on more than that. Several houses, including mine, have different specs than listed. I have a 3 bed room 2.5 bath it shows 5 bed room 3 bath. I have seen this several times. Take everything off the internet with a grain of salt.
ChunkyMonkey
04-26-2015, 00:48
^ yes. Even their county records are outdated and can be easily updated by whoever claims as the property owner.. Their chain of title does not show many thing.
Recolorado isn't as user friendly but is very accurate.
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My wife's best friend and husband just sold their house for $20,000 over listed price. Had 13 offers in just a few days of being listed. Their house is in Castel Rock. Yeah I'd say the market is hot.
like said previously, i don't really understand the pull to sell. i mean sure you can make more money than you spent, but then you have to buy in an inflated market. so you barely get ahead if at all. i suppose if you weren't able to refinance your current mortgage, you could sell and get a new mortgage at a lower rate, but if thats the case you probably could have just refinanced to begin with. the sellers market really is only beneficial if you are planning to move our of state, or possibly if you are moving from the city to outside the city.
Word from my friends in the general contractor area is that alot of refinancing and additions are being bid because of that situation. Along with new construction taking off but so many contractors shut down from the recession every gc is booked for a year.
I have over 100k in equity, but still can't find a home within my budget. Also my wife doesn't want to move far from family and friends.
Put an offer on a house in Littleton today. I hope we can get it, but I'm not optimistic since there were 3 other couples viewing it at the same time we were at 10 am. The reasons we are moving is because we live in Aurora and both work in Lakewood/Golden area, and we rent our current house. The landlord has been raising the rent $100/mo each year for 3 years now and will probably do it again this fall. But he does nothing for the place, like fix the roof that has been missing shingles for 5 years now with the patches getting bigger from each storm with a lot of wind we get. Plus a few other pretty big things inside that have gotten the band-aid treatment instead of being fixed.
Wouldnt something like that almost be re-portable? Course that still just puts you in a bad cycle with the schmuck.
Until the roof actually leaks its not illegal. Its just slumlord ish
So wife and I have been tentatively looking to see if we can use the equity in our home to upgrade. We aren't in dire need so we don't play the "bidding war" game but holy crap...
So far, both offers of full price were nixed due to people offering over the asking price. The offer on the first one was before they even had a sign in the yard. The second offer was refused because someone else offered $40k more than asking price.
This market is just silly.
Yeah, it makes me really nervous. Prices are already inflated but I dont mind rolling my equity over and our payments will stay the same. I figure it's all funny money when using the inflated market equity so I'm still only investing my original cash downpayment. I can't imagine trying to buy without having the funny money from equity to use.
I'm in a much better position to capitalize on a market crash this time around.
Call me nuts,
But the market makes me nervous, this is what it looked like right before 2007/8 when it went south.
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Isnt the nation as a whole fairly steady but there are just certain markets that are going nuts like us San Fran etc?
So wife and I have been tentatively looking to see if we can use the equity in our home to upgrade. We aren't in dire need so we don't play the "bidding war" game but holy crap...
So far, both offers of full price were nixed due to people offering over the asking price. The offer on the first one was before they even had a sign in the yard. The second offer was refused because someone else offered $40k more than asking price.
This market is just silly.
In our recent search this is exactly the kind of situation our agent has been telling us is happening all the time out there right now. If you go to an open house on a Saturday, offers will be due by the following Monday evening and there could be as many as 40+ people who looked at the house in that short time frame, and likely a bidding war and/or buyers ready to pay all cash, particularly in 200-300K range.
I'm in a much better position to capitalize on a market crash this time around.
Me too, but not enough to make up for the "paper losses" incurred on my home's theoretical value + the losses in my retirement accounts.... but I'd be far better off than most other people my age, that's for sure. I would really like to capitalize on this local market and sell/move elsewhere, where the market is not so frothy, simultaneously improving my families position with respect to self-sufficiency and preparedness.
RblDiver
05-12-2015, 15:57
I'll be honest, I wouldn't mind a real estate crash. But that's because I'm looking to be a buyer, so I may be a tad bit biased >.>
Yeah, unless something magical happens, I don't see us moving right now. I do hope it holds til March though so I can sell my rental. Then, I can sit back and wait for it to dip again.
Me too, but not enough to make up for the "paper losses" incurred on my home's theoretical value + the losses in my retirement accounts.... but I'd be far better off than most other people my age, that's for sure. I would really like to capitalize on this local market and sell/move elsewhere, where the market is not so frothy, simultaneously improving my families position with respect to self-sufficiency and preparedness.
certainly thats the way to go, its just a tough pill to swallow to uproot the family sometimes. i wouldn't have a problem with it, but the wife? she wouldn't be as thrilled. her parents just moved out, she has close friends here, likes the denver area. and i mean i have all those reasons to stay too i am just a little more independent. my ideal situation would be to sell now, move to a mountainous area where land is dirt cheap and build a sweet house on a lot of acreage so i could shoot to my hearts content. it will never happen though.
BlasterBob
05-12-2015, 16:58
Just listed our place this morning and have had one showing already. We live on thirty five acres, five miles from town, have four out buildings with one as a reloading shed. The prospective buyer is into reloading, shooting etc., so we'll see what happens.
The average time a house sits on the market in my current neighborhood is 1 day.
Firehaus
05-12-2015, 17:04
Looks like if you can stretch past $400k, things are moving a little slower. It really sucks paying $400k for what was a $300k house 3 years ago.
http://images.tapatalk-cdn.com/15/05/12/45cbd6d8a502627181a5d25af036eaf8.jpg
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Yeah, unless something magical happens, I don't see us moving right now. I do hope it holds til March though so I can sell my rental. Then, I can sit back and wait for it to dip again.
Magical like a tornado?
I just wish I hadn't wasted so much time NOT remodeling my house.
Magical like a tornado?
I just wish I hadn't wasted so much time NOT remodeling my house.
I will remodel it for you.
Magical like a tornado?
I just wish I hadn't wasted so much time NOT remodeling my house.
On the flip side, we JUST spent 3k on counters and now we're looking at moving. Granted, we'll get it back and then some but it was a weekend of work to do all the backsplash. In this market, all you need is 4 walls and a roof and it'll sell.
Magical as in somehow avoiding a bidding war.
Just got an offer accepted on a house in Westminster. I had wanted to move a little more closer to Lakewood and Littleton, but at least we'll be buying and can stop renting. The SW suburbs are the hottest places right now making it harder to get anything for a decent price there. One house we had looked at in Littleton had an asking price of 295k and sold for 320k cash, no seller allowances given.
keylay31
05-12-2015, 22:14
(Deleted by keylay31)
Great-Kazoo
05-12-2015, 22:32
certainly thats the way to go, its just a tough pill to swallow to uproot the family sometimes. i wouldn't have a problem with it, but the wife? she wouldn't be as thrilled. her parents just moved out, she has close friends here, likes the denver area. and i mean i have all those reasons to stay too i am just a little more independent. my ideal situation would be to sell now, move to a mountainous area where land is dirt cheap and build a sweet house on a lot of acreage so i could shoot to my hearts content. it will never happen though.
We loaded up the moving & pick up trucks. Fired up the CB's and headed westward to CO. Left both family's behind, w/out looking back.
The kids been on her own 12 yrs and we have nothing but a good network of friends/ extended family along the front range. However it's getting close to moving time again.
IF the market were to shit the bed tomorrow morning, we'd still be good financially house wise. We owe on the mortgage only, no other debt, second mortgage etc.
We're sitting good enough , we could buy another place and move out at our own pace. Listing the home once the important items have been moved, or (hint) sold.
DeusExMachina
05-13-2015, 15:31
Put an offer in on a house last weekend. The accepted offer was 50k above list and they waived appraisal.
Lemme know if you need an inspection.
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I don't think he got the house ;).
DeusExMachina
05-13-2015, 16:03
No, thank god. :)
I have a feeling the buyers may back out based on inspection when their bank appraises it well below their offer.
Unless of course, they're paying cash. From looking at houses I've seen a lot of foreign nationals combing through places.
Kind of a crazy market. There's a house that just got listed down our street and I think the seller has been hitting the crack pipe pretty hard. He's around $100k overpriced, IMHO, based on what our houses are probably worth . . . but if buyers are pumping up the prices like some are reporting, then maybe I'm the one who's crazy? We'll see. I don't see any way he gets north of $500k like he's asking.
Kind of a crazy market. There's a house that just got listed down our street and I think the seller has been hitting the crack pipe pretty hard. He's around $100k overpriced, IMHO, based on what our houses are probably worth . . . but if buyers are pumping up the prices like some are reporting, then maybe I'm the one who's crazy? We'll see. I don't see any way he gets north of $500k like he's asking.
Some of the houses I have been outbid on you would never think would get as much as they have.
ruthabagah
05-13-2015, 17:51
Kind of a crazy market. There's a house that just got listed down our street and I think the seller has been hitting the crack pipe pretty hard. He's around $100k overpriced, IMHO, based on what our houses are probably worth . . . but if buyers are pumping up the prices like some are reporting, then maybe I'm the one who's crazy? We'll see. I don't see any way he gets north of $500k like he's asking.
nah you are not crazy: people are paying top dollar for for crappy, north facing houses with tons of remodeling. They all moved here from NY, DC or CA and are finding bargains in CO....
nah you are not crazy: people are paying top dollar for for crappy, north facing houses with tons of remodeling. They all moved here from NY, DC or CA and are finding bargains in CO....
I didn't have a preference on where it faces, but I ended up with North facing house. Next house, i would want my back yard to face either North or East for my kid to play in the shades all day.
One good part is that I only water 4min/night for front, but 15+min for the back yard.
Heuristic
05-13-2015, 20:25
Okay,
I'm a real estate appraiser in the Pueblo area and have been at it for 16 years. I've lived through the 2006-2010 roller coaster and made it out the other side. I can tell you we are heading for a massive downturn again. It's just a matter of when, so hang on.
- Values here are going up about 3-10% over the past 2 years depending on the neighborhood, which is now unsustainable. There are currently 20-25% fewer listings than normal pushing more market disturbances.
- The brokers and agents are screaming mad because they have full price offers on homes (way over priced to begin with) and the appraisals are coming in short, because there are no sales to support the contract price. Then I get called a lowball asshole because they didn't do their due diligence to begin with. (Fucked up brokers are a whole 'nother story)
- Market rents remain somewhat strong but FHA loans have become the new sub-prime lending source because they have relaxed the lending standards again, and people who should be renting are becoming homeowners. When you start to see 100% financing or ARM's it will have went full retard again.
I could go on....
ChunkyMonkey
05-13-2015, 21:06
^^ yep but these out of States cash buyers are still strong. I have been telling the same thing to local buyers. Be patient..
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What goes up, must go down. Not just real estate market, but securities, pm, fixed incomes, and commodities.
So what are your thoughts on using the inflated equity to buy something bigger? If its no cash out of pocket, is it a bad thing to do?
kidicarus13
05-13-2015, 21:54
What goes up, must go down. Not just real estate market, but securities, pm, fixed incomes, and commodities.
Cyclical
Madeinhb
05-13-2015, 23:05
Okay,
I'm a real estate appraiser in the Pueblo area and have been at it for 16 years. I've lived through the 2006-2010 roller coaster and made it out the other side. I can tell you we are heading for a massive downturn again. It's just a matter of when, so hang on.
- Values here are going up about 3-10% over the past 2 years depending on the neighborhood, which is now unsustainable. There are currently 20-25% fewer listings than normal pushing more market disturbances.
- The brokers and agents are screaming mad because they have full price offers on homes (way over priced to begin with) and the appraisals are coming in short, because there are no sales to support the contract price. Then I get called a lowball asshole because they didn't do their due diligence to begin with. (Fucked up brokers are a whole 'nother story)
- Market rents remain somewhat strong but FHA loans have become the new sub-prime lending source because they have relaxed the lending standards again, and people who should be renting are becoming homeowners. When you start to see 100% financing or ARM's it will have went full retard again.
I could go on....
Just bought mine but got lucky through a friend of a friend - so no bidding war. Now just waiting to see ARM's skyrocket and then might sell and wait for the crash.
Persocon
05-13-2015, 23:44
Aw crap, I should've read this thread before buying a 33 year old condo.
Here's how crazy this market is,
got outbid on a 758 sq ft 1 bedroom 1 bath old condo, Quincy & Chambers, asking $90k, sold for $110k cash, with a backup bid of $110k cash
got outbid on a 880 sq ft 2 bedroom 1.5 bath old condo, Peoria & Florida, asking $150k, sold for $162 cash
got outbid on a 790 sq ft 2 bedroom 1.5 bath old condo, 81st & Washington, asking $125k, sold for $135 cash
so I just got a 33 year old condo at Sable & Ellesworth for $110k instead, with the future lightrail 30 yards from my window [facepalm]
When the market crashes I'm going to try to pick up a 5-pack or 10-pack of condos.
When the market crashes I'm going to try to pick up a 5-pack or 10-pack of condos.
Just buy the condo uppers and receivers separately and assemble yourself in the garage during the next election cycle... :)
Heuristic
05-14-2015, 06:12
So what are your thoughts on using the inflated equity to buy something bigger? If its no cash out of pocket, is it a bad thing to do?
Okay,
so you buy a house that's around $400,000 for $470,000. The market crashes say 2 years later, and the house is now worth $300,00 on its best day. You're in the ditch $170K. You walk away from the house and let it go back to the bank. Then at the end of the year you get a $170k 1099 for the loss....
I have seen in more than once.
I never understood why people would walk from a loan like that. If they went through a job loss or something, I can start to see it, but I understood people were walking based on value alone and that just seems insanely stupid and irresponsible to me. Maybe a lot of those people should have stayed renters.
ronaldrwl
05-14-2015, 07:30
We sold our house in Littleton last year for a huge profit because we thought it was a good time to leave Colorado. To many liberals and pot heads moving in. There was no other reason as I can work from anywhere with a computer. We looked around the whole country for a place to live and made numerous weekend visit to different cities. We decided on East Texas and have loved it. Everyone has a different opinion but what I like is the hunting, fishing and southern ways. The people are outgoing-friendly and conservative. Just my 2 cents. We loved Colorado for 24 years.
Okay,
so you buy a house that's around $400,000 for $470,000. The market crashes say 2 years later, and the house is now worth $300,00 on its best day. You're in the ditch $170K. You walk away from the house and let it go back to the bank. Then at the end of the year you get a $170k 1099 for the loss....
I have seen in more than once.
We're looking at a new build so no bidding war, does that help? Price is about $380k but we are going to roll about 100k of equity from our house, which we bought pre spike. I look at it as were getting the house for essentially 280k since that will be our mortgage. But were getting a brand new house with tons of upgrades and more house. Then, in March, I want to sell the rental and pay off the cars with that profit. Were in for the long haul on the new house so should be able to ride any market cycle. But use the high to upgrade and pay off some debt.
Heuristic
05-14-2015, 07:39
I never understood why people would walk from a loan like that. If they went through a job loss or something, I can start to see it, but I understood people were walking based on value alone and that just seems insanely stupid and irresponsible to me. Maybe a lot of those people should have stayed renters.
You're right in most of them are job loss or medical issues where they and up walking. I've seen situations where people own a house, buy another bigger better house with the intention of selling the original smaller house, and simply walk away from the original home and let it foreclose. Sometimes intentionally....aka 'strategic foreclosures'. Its really tough to qualify for 2 homes nowadays from what I gather...
ChunkyMonkey
05-14-2015, 07:56
We're looking at a new build so no bidding war, does that help? Price is about $380k but we are going to roll about 100k of equity from our house, which we bought pre spike. I look at it as were getting the house for essentially 280k since that will be our mortgage. But were getting a brand new house with tons of upgrades and more house. Then, in March, I want to sell the rental and pay off the cars with that profit. Were in for the long haul on the new house so should be able to ride any market cycle. But use the high to upgrade and pay off some debt.
You aren't supposed to sell something that is appreciating to pay off one that is depreciating. ;)
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You aren't supposed to sell something that is appreciating to pay off one that is depreciating. ;)
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But what if those depreciating items free up $900-1000 a month in cash flow? That's more than the rental brings in and helps reduce my outgoing by a ton.
ChunkyMonkey
05-14-2015, 07:59
Okay,
so you buy a house that's around $400,000 for $470,000. The market crashes say 2 years later, and the house is now worth $300,00 on its best day. You're in the ditch $170K. You walk away from the house and let it go back to the bank. Then at the end of the year you get a $170k 1099 for the loss....
I have seen in more than once.
Upto last year, irs forgives the debt. There is talk to extend this.. But nothing out of the committee.
http://www.irs.gov/uac/Home-Foreclosure-and-Debt-Cancellation
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ChunkyMonkey
05-14-2015, 08:03
But what if those depreciating items free up $900-1000 a month in cash flow? That's more than the rental brings in and helps reduce my outgoing by a ton.
One will continue to give you increasing cash flow, the other is short term cost. The first will increase in value and beat the inflation rate (counting in market crashes etc) the later simply drop in value constantly.
I personally don't like to finance cars for this reason.
Obviously there are exceptions etc etc etc. I am just stating the rule of thumb.
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ChunkyMonkey
05-14-2015, 08:06
You're right in most of them are job loss or medical issues where they and up walking. I've seen situations where people own a house, buy another bigger better house with the intention of selling the original smaller house, and simply walk away from the original home and let it foreclose. Sometimes intentionally....aka 'strategic foreclosures'. Its really tough to qualify for 2 homes nowadays from what I gather...
It used to happen all the time. Nowadays instead of claim loss, some lenders will go after you and put lien against the new property. Ouch!
To qualify for 2nd home is abit tougher.. The funny part is to qualify to purchase a portfolio aka 10 houses or more or 100 rental unit, it is much easier-- given the portfolio has ongoing income.
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Monky, I completely understand what you're saying. I look at it as clearing outgoing debt to free up purchase power at the next crash. I couldn't sell my rental for 145k 2 years ago and now they're going for 200k+. I don't want to miss that train because I bought it a little before the first crash. I want to get back in but buy when the market is at the very bottom. And yeah, no more car loans after these are paid off.
ChunkyMonkey
05-14-2015, 08:26
There is your exception! Are you coming to the range? Call Simon!
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Great-Kazoo
05-14-2015, 08:29
My question is. How does one pay for a $400K home? Do any of you have fall back plans, IF one or both household incomes were to stop? The idea of walking away from a loan because one cannot sell their home for what they paid for it is , insulting.
Then again the idea of paying more than $1K per month for a mortgage is strange. Shouldering a payment of $2-3K monthly unheard of. The places we're looking at (downsizing) are still in the $5-875 mth payment. Then again the spouse is close to retirement age, i'm done.
Nah, have to finish up the contract on the new house and my suppressors still aren't approved yet. :( next time!
hurley842002
05-14-2015, 08:34
My question is. How does one pay for a $400K home? Do any of you have fall back plans, IF one or both household incomes were to stop? The idea of walking away from a loan because one cannot sell their home for what they paid for it is , insulting.
Then again the idea of paying more than $1K per month for a mortgage is strange. Shouldering a payment of $2-3K monthly unheard of. The places we're looking at (downsizing) are still in the $5-875 mth payment. Then again the spouse is close to retirement age, i'm done.
Have you SEEN some of the toys our members buy, or the number of "stamps" people send off for? Not hating at all, just some folks made much better life/career choices than I did. Okay back on topic.
Been watching this thread a bit.
My question is. How does one pay for a $400K home? Do any of you have fall back plans, IF one or both household incomes were to stop? The idea of walking away from a loan because one cannot sell their home for what they paid for it is , insulting.
Then again the idea of paying more than $1K per month for a mortgage is strange. Shouldering a payment of $2-3K monthly unheard of. The places we're looking at (downsizing) are still in the $5-875 mth payment. Then again the spouse is close to retirement age, i'm done.
I have that same question. There is one down the street from me for sale at ~$450K. These are very "middle class" homes (not what you would think of in that price range). I've done the math and don't understand how that is affordable. And if it stretches the budget then there is less opportunity to save.
We bought the smallest model in the development in 2008 and were still a bit uncomfortable with the amount, but it was affordable for us (we were well under the finance limits and had 20% down).
I just don't get why folks would do that to themselves... Being one paycheck away from disaster is no way to live. If that is what is keeping these prices up then I worry about the sustainability at that level.
What I do know is that payments on $450K @ 4% are $2,148 P&I + ~$400 escrows = $2500/month. With the math they used to use, a borrower would need ~$80K in annual income to qualify with no other obligations (debt, child support, etc).
Add in maintenance, other cost of living, etc... and you'd need $100K to be comfortable. That doesn't even include saving for retirement.
Keeping a mortgage under $1,000 isn't that easy these days for anything in the single family market. Yes, the market is ridiculous but even before that, a $180k loan, once you factor in property tax and insurance, you're over that. That's assuming you buy a $225,000 home and put $50,000 down.
kidicarus13
05-14-2015, 09:06
Do any of you have fall back plans, IF one or both household incomes were to stop?
You walk away from the house and let it go back to the bank.
Seems like a popular fall back plan.
Great-Kazoo
05-14-2015, 09:24
Seems like a popular fall back plan.
if one can live with them self. Even having that mentality going in to any contract is inexcusable . Oh well i'll walk away, "again" .
That would not be our plan and if not for the inflated equity in our home, we wouldn't be looking at a new house. But with the $200 PMI on my current loan, that's eating into a lot of "house" that we could have. Payment won't be changing much when all said and done. I don't know how anyone buys a home right now without equity from a currently inflated home. Using cash is a HUGE gamble.
That would not be our plan and if not for the inflated equity in our home, we wouldn't be looking at a new house. But with the $200 PMI on my current loan, that's eating into a lot of "house" that we could have. Payment won't be changing much when all said and done. I don't know how anyone buys a home right now without equity from a currently inflated home. Using cash is a HUGE gamble.
You can remove that without a refi... Contact the mortgage company, they will order an appraisal and if its 75%, they will remove it. I thought it was 80% also but i am in the process of removing my PMI and my paperwork says 75%.
I REALLY want to get a new place, and although i just got a good promo... Its not the right time. I'll wait a few more years
You can remove that without a refi... Contact the mortgage company, they will order an appraisal and if its 75%, they will remove it. I thought it was 80% also but i am in the process of removing my PMI and my paperwork says 75%.
I REALLY want to get a new place, and although i just got a good promo... Its not the right time. I'll wait a few more years
GREAT TIP!
Do this ^^^, you don't have to refi.
My loan says 80%, but the fineprint says it goes off automatically at 78%. I refied and got an appraisal so mine went from $170/mo down to $30/mo and should be gone in less than a year.
EDIT: I didn't refinance at the new appraised amount, just got the appraisal and refinanced at what I owed. The closing costs were something like $3,000, and I had only bought the house the year before, so while it might seem like I just went backward, reducing the interest rate and the PMI saved me at least $100/mo in total mortgage payment and got me below $1,000/mo. Finally, I pay bi-weekly, and pay way over the minimum due so I'm already nearly back to where I was before the refi as far as total amount owed, in only a.quarter. In conclusion, that extra $100/mo goes a long way toward the principle when I continie to pay what I did before the refi.
We bought the house in the middle of crash of 2008. Financing was 10x harder and more complicated than when my mom bought a place in Long Beach area around 2001.
I decide not to finance a house again, unless they go back to how easy the financing was like 2002-2006ish. IMO , I think it is just easier to save my butt off to buy a house with cash than go through that financing hell again. (fine, I won't buy new toys, eat 89cent salad packs + boiled eggs every day+ not going out, etc regardless of how much I make).
I just don't know how people afford $800k+ homes at $250k/yr all combined salary. This is very reason we are stuck at home we live in now.
Keeping a mortgage under $1,000 isn't that easy these days for anything in the single family market. Yes, the market is ridiculous but even before that, a $180k loan, once you factor in property tax and insurance, you're over that. That's assuming you buy a $225,000 home and put $50,000 down.
Been watching this thread a bit.
I have that same question. There is one down the street from me for sale at ~$450K. These are very "middle class" homes (not what you would think of in that price range). I've done the math and don't understand how that is affordable. And if it stretches the budget then there is less opportunity to save.
We bought the smallest model in the development in 2008 and were still a bit uncomfortable with the amount, but it was affordable for us (we were well under the finance limits and had 20% down).
I just don't get why folks would do that to themselves... Being one paycheck away from disaster is no way to live. If that is what is keeping these prices up then I worry about the sustainability at that level.
What I do know is that payments on $450K @ 4% are $2,148 P&I + ~$400 escrows = $2500/month. With the math they used to use, a borrower would need ~$80K in annual income to qualify with no other obligations (debt, child support, etc).
Add in maintenance, other cost of living, etc... and you'd need $100K to be comfortable. That doesn't even include saving for retirement.
My question is. How does one pay for a $400K home? Do any of you have fall back plans, IF one or both household incomes were to stop? The idea of walking away from a loan because one cannot sell their home for what they paid for it is , insulting.
Then again the idea of paying more than $1K per month for a mortgage is strange. Shouldering a payment of $2-3K monthly unheard of. The places we're looking at (downsizing) are still in the $5-875 mth payment. Then again the spouse is close to retirement age, i'm done.
Great-Kazoo
05-14-2015, 22:41
We bought the house in the middle of crash of 2008. Financing was 10x harder and more complicated than when my mom bought a place in Long Beach area around 2001.
I decide not to finance a house again, unless they go back to how easy the financing was like 2002-2006ish. IMO , I think it is just easier to save my butt off to buy a house with cash than go through that financing hell again. (fine, I won't buy new toys, eat 89cent salad packs + boiled eggs every day+ not going out, etc regardless of how much I make).
I just don't know how people afford $800k+ homes at $250k/yr all combined salary. This is very reason we are stuck at home we live in now.
1st, Thanks for being responsible with your money.
2nd. people do because someone at the bank / loan office etc tells them You know with your credit you can afford a more expensive home. HOOKED & REELED IN.
Old story. we were finally splurging on a new vehicle. Loan guy says, with your credit you can afford a $600 mthly payment, sure you don't want to upgrade?
The spouse says why would we go in more debt just because "we can Afford it" This is our limit for monthly ($250) payment. Finish the paperwork or we walk. Paid that note off second year.
Well, I am guilty of buying one car which is kinda out of my means. Can I pay em off tomorrow? yes, but it is still out of our means. Financing a car was far easier than financing a house. With that said, now I see sub-prime loans are getting generated in automotive financing industries slowly.
As for financing a res/comm real estate, I give huge props to people who flip residential/commercial real estate for a living. They have to go through that long and difficult financing process every freaking month.
1st, Thanks for being responsible with your money.
2nd. people do because someone at the bank / loan office etc tells them You know with your credit you can afford a more expensive home. HOOKED & REELED IN.
Old story. we were finally splurging on a new vehicle. Loan guy says, with your credit you can afford a $600 mthly payment, sure you don't want to upgrade?
The spouse says why would we go in more debt just because "we can Afford it" This is our limit for monthly ($250) payment. Finish the paperwork or we walk. Paid that note off second year.
As for financing a res/comm real estate, I give huge props to people who flip residential/commercial real estate for a living. They have to go through that long and difficult financing process every freaking month.
You don't use regular financing when flipping houses or regularly buying property.
You don't use regular financing when flipping houses or regularly buying property.
Do you set up S or LLC to finance?
I just don't know how people afford $800k+ homes at $250k/yr all combined salary.
They move here from California with a chunk of equity from their insanely priced housing.
Do you set up S or LLC to finance?
We did an LLC, but the financing is private so it's smooth.
ChunkyMonkey
05-15-2015, 08:17
Well, I am guilty of buying one car which is kinda out of my means. Can I pay em off tomorrow? yes, but it is still out of our means. Financing a car was far easier than financing a house. With that said, now I see sub-prime loans are getting generated in automotive financing industries slowly.
As for financing a res/comm real estate, I give huge props to people who flip residential/commercial real estate for a living. They have to go through that long and difficult financing process every freaking month.
Most go through hard money or simply have cash to do it. Hard money doesn't even check credit. It's 7 days contract to closing turn around.
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ChunkyMonkey
05-15-2015, 08:22
For those who wants to get into commercial units (minimum 40) or portfolio, I do hard money funding. Many offsetting factors.. Our group will do $2-20 m. First lien 2-3 year balloon. Shameless plug ;)
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Just wanted to update this thread. We put our house on the market Friday, with showing starting on Saturday. Had a cash offer on Sunday, $10,000 over asking price. We had 10 showings in 36 hours. I posted in the "wish us luck" thread but figured I'd update this one also. The market is crazy.
Firehaus
05-18-2015, 10:26
Congrats! Are you staying in Castle Rock?
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Yeah, we're going over to the Terrain.
Firehaus
05-18-2015, 16:26
Thats where I am currently. Trying to decide if I'll stay in the neighborhood.
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Thats where I am currently. Trying to decide if I'll stay in the neighborhood.
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How do you like it?
Firehaus
05-18-2015, 16:37
I like it, other than the see in your neighbors backyard part.
I'm wanting a bigger lot, but might just decide to stay in the neighborhood.
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I like it, other than the see in your neighbors backyard part.
I'm wanting a bigger lot, but might just decide to stay in the neighborhood.
Yeah, it's tough/expensive to get a lot these days. It'll be an adjustment from our current home but the extra house space will be awesome. I use the interior of a house way more than yard space. Plus, big landscaped yard just means more time on weekends taking care of it. I'd rather be out in the woods. I'd love land as long as it's in the country and not an HOA neighborhood.
BigNick73
05-18-2015, 17:06
We bought the house in the middle of crash of 2008. Financing was 10x harder and more complicated than when my mom bought a place in Long Beach area around 2001.
I decide not to finance a house again, unless they go back to how easy the financing was like 2002-2006ish. IMO , I think it is just easier to save my butt off to buy a house with cash than go through that financing hell again. (fine, I won't buy new toys, eat 89cent salad packs + boiled eggs every day+ not going out, etc regardless of how much I make).
I just don't know how people afford $800k+ homes at $250k/yr all combined salary. This is very reason we are stuck at home we live in now.
I decided the same thing after going through the whole FHA process in 2009 and having to sell for work in 2010. I ran the numbers every way I could and couldn't find any benefit to financing a primary residence, despite popular opinion (investment/rental can be different). While I don't have to go through the financing I'm pacing right now waiting for a bank to respond to an offer I just made back in the southeast on a foreclosure and they are still taking their time.
DeusExMachina
05-18-2015, 18:51
I hate the "we will look at offers in 3 days" game, but the least they could do is have a prompt answer.
ruthabagah
05-18-2015, 19:10
Well got word tonight that the offer I made on saturday was second to a 25k over asking price + 5k bonus for an early closing..... Sucks because it was THE HOUSE. Of course it was bought by former CA residents, currently in corporate housing....
DeusExMachina
05-18-2015, 19:14
Well got word tonight that the offer I made on saturday was second to a 25k over asking price + 5k bonus for an early closing..... Sucks because it was THE HOUSE. Of course it was bought by former CA residents, currently in corporate housing....
That sucks...I feel ya.
That sucks...I feel ya.
Yup have offered over asking either 5 or 6 times now and not gotten the house
Yup have offered over asking either 5 or 6 times now and not gotten the house
The wife and I decided that we'd take the first solid offer that was at our asking price. Solid meaning either cash or their house already under contract. We didn't want to put people in that silly bidding war nonsense. We priced it where we needed it and that's that. Also why we ended up going with a new build. The price is what it is.
DeusExMachina
05-19-2015, 05:42
Noticed the house I put an offer on is under contract. No notification, no contract rejection, nothing. Some people.
Noticed the house I put an offer on is under contract. No notification, no contract rejection, nothing. Some people.
Thats just freaking rude. I hate that crap. They beg for your business when the market is down and then turn right around and treat you like hell when homes start selling. Totally unacceptable.
1st, Thanks for being responsible with your money.
2nd. people do because someone at the bank / loan office etc tells them You know with your credit you can afford a more expensive home. HOOKED & REELED IN.
Old story. we were finally splurging on a new vehicle. Loan guy says, with your credit you can afford a $600 mthly payment, sure you don't want to upgrade?
The spouse says why would we go in more debt just because "we can Afford it" This is our limit for monthly ($250) payment. Finish the paperwork or we walk. Paid that note off second year.
Damn good woman, most aren't like that.
DeusExMachina
05-19-2015, 06:23
We've met some very rude agents. One offer, my agent asked when they would let us know because another property had offers due later in the day and we were considering put an offer in. The agent replied, "Oh, you're free to put the offer in on the other property now". That was the one I offered $25k over list and they accepted $50k (12% over). The other property was already under contract, about 8 hours before offers were "due".
We've met some very rude agents. One offer, my agent asked when they would let us know because another property had offers due later in the day and we were considering put an offer in. The agent replied, "Oh, you're free to put the offer in on the other property now". That was the one I offered $25k over list and they accepted $50k (12% over). The other property was already under contract, about 8 hours before offers were "due".
Wow, $50K over. I don't see this stopping anytime soon. A bidding war started in our neighborhood on a house ( same model as ours ) and someone ended up getting an offer accepted for 4 something last week. The funny thing is, they still held an open house on the weekend ( with the house under contract ) because it had already been scheduled . WTF [facepalm]what a waste of people's time and effort.
DeusExMachina
05-19-2015, 06:51
It might not be a waste. Only 40% of houses that go under contract get sold in the area. People put in insane offers, the house appraises for much less, and they bail.
Yup the appraisal is the tricky part. If it appraises low, you got to give cash to make up the difference.
Madeinhb
05-19-2015, 07:16
It might not be a waste. Only 40% of houses that go under contract get sold in the area. People put in insane offers, the house appraises for much less, and they bail.
You could write in contract about waving appraisal and they have to put cash up for whatever above
DeusExMachina
05-19-2015, 07:39
You could write in contract about waving appraisal and they have to put cash up for whatever above
Waiving appraisal is essentially meaningless, since they can always back out on inspection or financing. If they waive appraisal, the bank has to appraise it anyway, and if they don't have the cash to put on top the financing falls through. It's just a tactic. My realtor suggested offering cash on top of the appraisal amount to demonstrate seriousness...it says, if the house appraises for less than purchase price, I'll still pay you X above it. Whereas other buyers might bail when the house they offered $400k on appraises for $350k.
Finally got the official word on the offer from the listing agent. "The sellers on this property chose a different offer last night." I guess they couldn't be assed to email anyone.
Aloha_Shooter
05-19-2015, 22:28
This is sounding like 2006 all over again -- or maybe 1999. The behaviors are just like they were before the market crashed and I'm still not seeing why the stock market or housing market are worth what they're priced at today. Absent the Fed simply printing money there's just no way things should cost what they do.
MarkUSMC88
05-20-2015, 06:55
Low supply, high demand - sucks
Low supply, high demand - sucks
Only if you're a buyer. I love capitalism.
ChunkyMonkey
05-20-2015, 07:54
Officially the missus and I are down to a couple rentals.. Since we are waiting for the market to adjust before we are back in, tax is going to be extremely stressful.
If you are a buyer, again, be patient!
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Great-Kazoo
05-20-2015, 08:42
This is sounding like 2006 all over again -- or maybe 1999. The behaviors are just like they were before the market crashed and I'm still not seeing why the stock market or housing market are worth what they're priced at today. Absent the Fed simply printing money there's just no way things should cost what they do.
More like late 93. We started looking at places in feb-march. the average price (across the board) was $45-55K within weeks it started rising an average of $10K per week. The one's we looked at had bids or were SOLD within a week of listing. By the time we found a place the average price in fort collins was $85K . Our area stayed around $5- - 60K Those same homes are the new $3-500K units.
Yet 6-9 months before (mid - late 92) your average time on market was 60 - 120 days.
Yeah there's no way this sustains. We're just using it as a chance to upgrade for essentially nothing. We also plan to be in our next home for 10-20 years so we can ride any market corrections. I'd be scared to death if I had to use cash (in full or down payment) to try and buy a home these days. No way would I do it.
ChunkyMonkey
05-20-2015, 10:39
Dave, dont forget interest rate & inflation.
As the US$ being devalued every day, you will almost guarantee to win by paying cash on your primary home. I.E. I cancelled a contract on a $150k house on University Hill in the late 90s. The same house is valued at $500k today and assuming the steady 5% inflation, it will be roughly 600k in 2020. Compare that to a 30 year loan @ today's rate of 4% (back in the 90s rate was in the high 7%), by 2020 my 30 year loan payout is $330k. Roughly 40% of my gain after subtracting the cost of the house.
Now, for rental units or income generating properties, leverage is everything. By all mean, put all the risk on the bank.
I am still regretting cancelling what would have been my first house. [fail]
Im just biding my time to dump my rental house. If it goes up for the next two years like it has been im going to . Im not much into the high risk of flipping but im willing to take that equity elsewhere
Great-Kazoo
05-20-2015, 11:55
Im just biding my time to dump my rental house. If it goes up for the next two years like it has been im going to . Im not much into the high risk of flipping but im willing to take that equity elsewhere
Your place should sell just on the Cool Factor exterior.
ChunkyMonkey
05-20-2015, 12:21
Im just biding my time to dump my rental house. If it goes up for the next two years like it has been im going to . Im not much into the high risk of flipping but im willing to take that equity elsewhere
Aurora one? Keep it!!!
The other rental in aurora. Not going to sell the omega man place until 2018 or 2019
Aurora one? Keep it!!!
The plan is and always has been to use my investment property to 1031 into commercial sized places. The house becomes a plex. The plex becomes a complex. I wonder if I can sell the house and "buy" the plex from myself?
Ill consider the plan successful when I have a 100+ unit complex in the 6mil+ value range.
The market here, right now, feels suspiciously like the market felt in South Florida in 2007...
So my HOA is blocking the sale of my home. They say the investment company already owns 2 homes in the neighborhood and aren't allowed to own anymore. They said if we get a letter stating its a family moving in, they'll override it but we'll see. I feel like this is a big overstep in power by them but they say the law changed in 2012 in they bylaws. Anyone ever run into this?
Great-Kazoo
05-29-2015, 10:39
So my HOA is blocking the sale of my home. They say the investment company already owns 2 homes in the neighborhood and aren't allowed to own anymore. They said if we get a letter stating its a family moving in, they'll override it but we'll see. I feel like this is a big overstep in power by them but they say the law changed in 2012 in they bylaws. Anyone ever run into this?
A HOA has that much power?. Did you and all home owners in that HOA receive written notice of said changes?
Tell them you'll see it through court. That's after you talk to each board member individually , to see what they say away from other members.
hurley842002
05-29-2015, 10:39
So my HOA is blocking the sale of my home. They say the investment company already owns 2 homes in the neighborhood and aren't allowed to own anymore. They said if we get a letter stating its a family moving in, they'll override it but we'll see. I feel like this is a big overstep in power by them but they say the law changed in 2012 in they bylaws. Anyone ever run into this?
Wow, apparently the HOA owns your home, not you. Sorry I know nothing and have nothing, other than a shocked face.
Wow, apparently the HOA owns your home, not you. Sorry I know nothing and have nothing, other than a shocked face.
Yeah, Im just as shocked as you are. I really hope they override this because if not, Im going to spend every waking hour making their life as difficult as possible.
Wow that is nuts Dave. Sorry to hear, hope you find a way to stick it to them.
Starting to wonder if I should sell my small rental in Aurora. But we're making really good money month-over-month at this point. Knowing me I'd do something dumb with the money like buy a machine gun or something anyway. :)
So my HOA is blocking the sale of my home. They say the investment company already owns 2 homes in the neighborhood and aren't allowed to own anymore. They said if we get a letter stating its a family moving in, they'll override it but we'll see. I feel like this is a big overstep in power by them but they say the law changed in 2012 in they bylaws. Anyone ever run into this?
Reason #4,278 why I'd never live under the thumb on of an HOA.
Good luck.
"
Section 6.4 Acquisition of Multiple Lots. Any Owner who owns or controls
two or more Lots in the Community as of the date of recording of this Master
Declaration, directly or indirectly through an affiliate of the Owner, shall be prohibited
from acquiring; whether directly or indirectly through an affiliate of the Owner, any
interest in any additional Lot in the Community, whether through purchase, trade, gift,
inheritance, lease, merger, consolidation or other means of acquisition. Thereafter, no
Owner may own more than two Lots in the Community. Notwithstanding anything in
this Declaration to the contrary, this restriction on acquisition of Lots shall not
apply to a
mortgagee acquiring title to a Lot subject to a mortgage by foreclosure or deed in lieu of
foreclosure. This restriction
shall
be enforceable by the Association or any Owner by
means of an
action
for injunction to restrain any
future acquisition or
to require an Owner
who has violated this restriction to divest any interest so acquired.
Any good investment company probably has several other shell companies. This is America after all.
In all seriousness, sorry man that doesn't look good. I understand the reason for it, but it sure does make it a pain when you're trying to sell.
DeusExMachina
05-29-2015, 11:08
That is pure evil. And they'll overrule it if a family is moving in? That sounds like discrimination.
In all seriousness, sorry man that doesn't look good. I understand the reason for it, but it sure does make it a pain when you're trying to sell.
Yeah, I get it that they don't want a bunch of vacant rentals or rentals where people don't care. But how is this different than wells fargo having mortgages on the homes? The HOA is there to keep up the appearance and fine anyone that steps out of line so that should prevent the neighborhood from declining in appearance.
Deus, yeah, I wonder how a court would feel about it when everything shows the investment company is only acting as a mortgage company, not as a rental company. They plan to sell it back to the people moving in once they can afford to buy it themselves.
"
Section 6.4 Acquisition of Multiple Lots. Any Owner who owns or controls
two or more Lots in the Community as of the date of recording of this Master
Declaration, directly or indirectly through an affiliate of the Owner, shall be prohibited
from acquiring; whether directly or indirectly through an affiliate of the Owner, any
interest in any additional Lot in the Community, whether through purchase, trade, gift,
inheritance, lease, merger, consolidation or other means of acquisition. Thereafter, no
Owner may own more than two Lots in the Community. Notwithstanding anything in
this Declaration to the contrary, this restriction on acquisition of Lots shall not
apply to a
mortgagee acquiring title to a Lot subject to a mortgage by foreclosure or deed in lieu of
foreclosure. This restriction
shall
be enforceable by the Association or any Owner by
means of an
action
for injunction to restrain any
future acquisition or
to require an Owner
who has violated this restriction to divest any interest so acquired.
My first question is: did the bank own these properties before the HOA changes their bylaws?
I have nothing but filthy words for HOAs; they're usually run by a bunch of big frogs in a very small pond. I'd print out copies of their bylaws, and bring your HOA contract and those bylaws to a real estate attorney to see what can be done. Imagine paying these yahoos for the privilege of telling YOU what you can do with your property! I'd also check with their people selling in your neighborhood, to see just how many of them have their mortgages owned by the same banks/credit unions/financial institutions. If they are, an sales have gone through, they're in violation of their own bylaws.
Pull NO punches, and fight this with everything you've got. HOAs deserve no less.
And stay away from neighborhoods with HOAs- hire kids to clear your snow or mow your lawn. It's much less of a pain.
Great-Kazoo
05-29-2015, 12:35
My first question is: did the bank own these properties before the HOA changes their bylaws?
I have nothing but filthy words for HOAs; they're usually run by a bunch of big frogs in a very small pond. I'd print out copies of their bylaws, and bring your HOA contract and those bylaws to a real estate attorney to see what can be done. Imagine paying these yahoos for the privilege of telling YOU what you can do with your property! I'd also check with their people selling in your neighborhood, to see just how many of them have their mortgages owned by the same banks/credit unions/financial institutions. If they are, an sales have gone through, they're in violation of their own bylaws.
Pull NO punches, and fight this with everything you've got. HOAs deserve no less.
And stay away from neighborhoods with HOAs- hire kids to clear your snow or mow your lawn. It's much less of a pain.
I suggested he use the words See you in court. They may talk big as a group, once separated from the herd more than likely that tune will change. Especially if you threaten court action. While a HOA is the group, how many of them will take it that far.
I suggested he use the words See you in court. They may talk big as a group, once separated from the herd more than likely that tune will change. Especially if you threaten court action. While a HOA is the group, how many of them will take it that far.
Yup. I'm getting them a letter explaining the company is only acting as a mortgage company and one from the family moving in.if they still say no, I'll threaten legal action and be ready to move forward with it. Wrong house color, unkempt lawn, fine. Telling me I can't sell my home, you 've abused your power, IMO.
newracer
05-29-2015, 12:59
From my experience serving on two HOA boards and dealing with HOAs I would recommended you take the nice approach and save the threat of lawsuit as a last resort. That works most of the time. HOAs rarely lose lawsuits and many times they can then charge you with their court costs.
Request to meet the board and present your information in person. They will likely understand and hopefully grant your request.
Yeah, I plan to be very cordial and professional until they absolutely won't budge. I work in insurance and understand nice goes a lot further on things.
Firehaus
05-29-2015, 13:29
Look at the financials of a large HOA, they usually have a big reserve for legal matters and the board is protected through the insurance policy.
You get more flies with honey than vinegar applies here.
I hope it works out and working the company is acting as the mortgage holder sounds like a great starting place to me.
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Good luck, I'm pissed we can't get an offer but I think I'd be even more upset if we had one and the HOA wouldn't let us sell.
"My hopes have been raised and dashed in a matter of moments. I have hopelash."
-Dale Gribble - King of the Hill
My mother in law ran into something similar with FHA when she was selling her condo a couple years ago. If a single person owns too many units, FHA won't touch it, which is very tough in the $~120K market.
Yeah, its going back on the market. The HOA office closes at noon on Fridays so no one can give us an answer til Monday. The buyers are doing a termination to let us do showings in the meantime but will continue on if they approve it on Monday.
My level of frustration on this is through the roof.
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