How long before the ammo shortage dies down

[Gunner]

What do you all think. I want to be able to run down to wal mart again and know I can at least get .22lr. So when do you all think the crazy will stop

[soldier-of-the-apocalypse]

Looks like never now

[sniper7]

Not happening any time soon. Took 3 years last time for it to get reasonable. Now with that many more new guns sold and new shooters and preppers and hoarders it will be a long long long time.

[gos]

Supply already seems a lot better to me. Bought some .223 at Cabelas last week, and it shipped today, for $0.41/round. Hardly the $0.28 that it was 18 months ago, but still much better pricing than I've seen in a while.

[RCCrawler]

I personally just don't understand it. Ammo companies must be working around the clock pumping out as many rounds as humanly possible, where can it all be going? Are they not producing rounds like they used to? Is there a shortage on raw materials?

[Sawin]

I could get overly analytical about my theory with this, but in short, I think IF the political discourse attacking 2A rights is at a peak right now (God I hope this is the worst of it), we should start to see improved availability within the year... I'll elaborate in a second. However, if further and new legislation or laws are pushed through restricting our rights more and more, it will just keep getting worse as far as the eye can see.

*Now cross your fingers* If nothing changes, or if the political environment lightens up on their anti-2A attacks, fewer "new" ammo hoarders will be joining the equation, more existing ammo hoarders will slow down their ammo purchases, and some of the folks who jumped on the bandwagon out of fear, peer pressure, and persuasion, will begin to liquidate at least some of their stashes....The truth is, it's a big "IF" and one can only hope.

[Cylinder Head]

Not to mention as we wind down things in the sandbox won't there be some decent surplus available?

[jgang]

Much will depend on the vote in the Senate this week.....if the assclowns vote "yea," then the trickle-down effect/message is "more gun control." The fact that it wouldn't pass the house (hopefully) is irrelevant as Americans are a fickle bunch who latch on the the right now and react vice applying reasoned thought. If the Senate votes "nay," I think that may be the beginning of an easing of the pressures in the industry and people will begin to feel a sense that things are calming and that they don't need to hoard as much. Of course, if His Highness invokes some kind of twisted take on executive powers, then the craziness will continue indefinitely. I'm hoping Sawin is right about folks liquidating stashes if things calm down, but, unfortunately, they'll be asking panic prices (as that's what they probably paid) until the retail market prices come down and they discover they're overpriced.....

[Great-Kazoo]

12-18 months before seeing a 'reasonable" supply of ammo. price point?? who knows. As mentioned above, IF the .gov gets any stupider, don't expect to see ammo availability any time soon.
Component mfg's say 6 months to catch up. catch up to previous orders or get in sight the never ending demand for components?

[DavieD55]

It isn't going to die down anytime soon. More and more people are realizing they need ammunition. The shooting sports hasn't been this popular since 1776.

[Firehaus]

I noticed cabelas in Kansas had more ammo on the shelves then Denver metro stores did. 223 was still scarce, but lots of 308 match and plinking on the shelves. Overall the shelves weren't empty at all like the stores here.

[roberth]

This is different than 2008-2009, so a year or more.

The last Tanner show people were selling Federal 550 round bulk pack at $110, now I'm seeing it on Armslist for $70 so that is a good sign. I don't know if it is selling at $70 though, people don't post how much they sold it for, just what they want.

[RCCrawler]

I just don't understand. Are the ammo manufactures running their equipment 24/7? There are plenty of people looking for work, why aren't they hiring more people to work more machines for longer hours? Even if they are just temporary jobs, and it's a temporary demand why wouldn't all these companies do everything humanly possible to take full advantage of selling anything they could make as fast as they could possibly make it?

[Great-Kazoo]

I just don't understand. Are the ammo manufactures running their equipment 24/7? There are plenty of people looking for work, why aren't they hiring more people to work more machines for longer hours? Even if they are just temporary jobs, and it's a temporary demand why wouldn't all these companies do everything humanly possible to take full advantage of selling anything they could make as fast as they could possibly make it?

If the mfg cannot obtain the raw materials to mfg components they can't do anything. Big Bore in wellington told me ha's waiting on his lead supplier to mfg more before he can cast more bullets. Trickle down, they don't have , you can't make. Doesn't matter how may people you have working, if the work is not there they can't.

It's like off road parts. If shock co. A is unable to obtain internal comopnents to mfg the "hottest new off road" suspension everyone wants, they cannot produce it.

[losttrail]

I personally just don't understand it. Ammo companies must be working around the clock pumping out as many rounds as humanly possible, where can it all be going? Are they not producing rounds like they used to? Is there a shortage on raw materials?

Look at the amount of ammo that DHS has on order: 1.6BILLION rounds, and that is just what we know of.

Consider also that DHS is not the only federal agency buying ammo; Social Security, IRS, FEMA, etc. ar also buying large quantities.

There is also the mindset of the liberals that if they can't get the guns banned right now, they can restrict ammo and reloading components. If we don't have ammo, we have expensive oars, sticks, clubs.

Rest assured that the Liberals fully understand what our Founding Fathers and George Mason intended the Second Amendment for. That is why they are so determined to nullify our ability to defend ourselves from their tyranny.

[RCCrawler]

If the mfg cannot obtain the raw materials to mfg components they can't do anything.

That's why I asked earlier if there was a material shortage. So it goes up the line, ramp up the mines, ramp up the foundries, ramp up the entire line of production from raw materials to ammo salesman in the stores. If the demand is there work to fill it.

There just seems to be more to the story to me.

It's not just ammo, guns as well. I don't understand why everyone is out of everything. If you manufacture bolt carrier groups, and you can't keep them on the shelf, bring on a second shift, if you still can't keep up bring on a third shift, if you still can't keep up bring in more equipment and people to run it. You should be trying to sell everything you possibly can while the demand is there for it, because you never know when it will disappear.

[Great-Kazoo]

That's why I asked earlier if there was a material shortage. So it goes up the line, ramp up the mines, ramp up the foundries, ramp up the entire line of production from raw materials to ammo salesman in the stores. If the demand is there work to fill it.

There just seems to be more to the story to me.

It's not just ammo, guns as well. I don't understand why everyone is out of everything. If you manufacture bolt carrier groups, and you can't keep them on the shelf, bring on a second shift, if you still can't keep up bring on a third shift, if you still can't keep up bring in more equipment and people to run it. You should be trying to sell everything you possibly can while the demand is there for it, because you never know when it will disappear.

Not every job position requires someone who can push a broom. A lot require skilled personnel to handle the task assigned. I wouldn't want some FSA or fresh out of college kid with no hands on experience, running a backhoe let alone mills, lathes and foundry equipment.

The hire more people mantra, seems like a simple fix, but it's not. Some of these jobs require BG checks beyond the usual piss test and local LE approval. My last job required Bio-Terrorism security clearance and lots of training. The average turn around time for the sec clearance was 6 weeks. I was fortunate having the necessary training and clearances to work right out of the gate.

[BushMasterBoy]

Obama just came here to make an example of us. When he and his ilk are gone...

[Chad4000]

Supply already seems a lot better to me. Bought some .223 at Cabelas last week, and it shipped today, for $0.41/round. Hardly the $0.28 that it was 18 months ago, but still much better pricing than I've seen in a while.

going to have to look at that one.... thats not bad... dont suppose you have a link to what you bought? ( I can google it, just hard at work...)

[Great-Kazoo]

Obama just came here to make an example of us. When he and his ilk are gone...

AND this has what to do with ammo?

[Circuits]

I just don't understand. Are the ammo manufactures running their equipment 24/7? There are plenty of people looking for work, why aren't they hiring more people to work more machines for longer hours? Even if they are just temporary jobs, and it's a temporary demand why wouldn't all these companies do everything humanly possible to take full advantage of selling anything they could make as fast as they could possibly make it?

Any factory already runs 24/7, or close to it. To do anything less is inefficient, and keeping the machines running was the reason for the creation of shift work in the first place - two or three shifts to keep the expensive capital equipment running as much as possible.

Only if a factory was running below normal levels, due to slump in demand, perhaps, can they just "ramp up" output quickly - and ammo leading up to the election and newtown was anything but in a slump.

The only other way, then, to increase capacity is to add new production lines, or upgrade existing machinery to do more or go faster. That takes money, lots of money, and time. Why on earth would an ammo factory add, say, $100M in new equipment in order to keep your price down, and when supply catches up to demand, they're sitting with expensive new machines to make more product than they need? The way new capacity gets added overall is new companies starting up, or the big companies overhauling their old machines once they've recouped their capital investment, and building a bigger/better/faster/more efficient production line in due time as part of modernization and maintenance, not as knee-jerk reaction to market fluctuations.

The fact is that demand has outstripped supply even with the ammo companies making as much as they can, as fast as they possibly can make it - and they'll only add additional capacity if the demand stays high for a long time, and projections make them believe demand is going to keep remaining high even after and if they add additional capacity.

[davsel]

That's why I asked earlier if there was a material shortage. So it goes up the line, ramp up the mines, ramp up the foundries, ramp up the entire line of production from raw materials to ammo salesman in the stores. If the demand is there work to fill it.

There just seems to be more to the story to me.

It's not just ammo, guns as well. I don't understand why everyone is out of everything. If you manufacture bolt carrier groups, and you can't keep them on the shelf, bring on a second shift, if you still can't keep up bring on a third shift, if you still can't keep up bring in more equipment and people to run it. You should be trying to sell everything you possibly can while the demand is there for it, because you never know when it will disappear.


“We are not experiencing a gun or ammo shortage. We are experiencing a customer surplus.”

Good Article concerning this topic:
http://www.gunsandammo.com/2013/04/02/ammo-shortage/

[BushMasterBoy]

AND this has what to do with ammo? Legislation and antigun attitude? I dunno...everybody buying cos' the .gov bought more than anybody? OP asked when it was gonna be back to normal and I gave my opinion.

[Colorado_Outback]

What (http://www.ar-15.co/members/14-Circuits) Circuits said is spot on. Additionally everyone who works in a production environment knows that its never as easy as it should be. Your going to have problems that effect your delivery dates almost without fail. Machines break, operators call in sick, things happen..

[Special Ed]

It's not just ammo, guns as well. I don't understand why everyone is out of everything.

The wife and I were at Cabela's in Ft. Worth yesterday (and Monday) and guns were quite plentiful. I'd say that their shelves were fully stocked. This was everything from concealed carry handguns up to AR-10s and AR-15s. They had lots of powder and primers, shotgun shells and magazines too. They had zero .22LR, were woefully short of any pistol ammo and .223 and .308 were out of stock too (though they did have a bunch of .223 on Monday morning, it was gone when we went back Tuesday morning.....price was around the .41/round figure for 55 gr. FMJ quoted earlier in this thread).

Now...15 miles away at Bass Pro Shops in Grapevine (just north of DFW Airport), their gun shelves were better than our Bass Pro in Denver but nowhere near the Cabela's stock level (they had maybe 20 handguns total and half of those were SAA clones and other revolvers).

[RCCrawler]

The only other way, then, to increase capacity is to add new production lines, or upgrade existing machinery to do more or go faster. That takes money, lots of money, and time. Why on earth would an ammo factory add, say, $100M in new equipment in order to keep your price down, and when supply catches up to demand, they're sitting with expensive new machines to make more product than they need?

From the article davsel posted:


First, ammunition manufacturers have been running at or near capacity for at least 10 years. Some of their production is still earmarked for military contracts, even though the U.S. military’s presence overseas is being reduced. But the fact of the matter is most ammo makers have barely recovered from the last ammo-buying panic. Nobody who makes ammo has had it sitting around getting dusty on their shelves. They were barely able to keep up with commercial demand before the country went into panic-buying mode.

So running at capacity for 10 years before all of this happened isn't reason enough to ramp up and invest in more equipment?

[Colorado_Outback]

No matter how you slice it more equipment/tooling = more overhead. More overhead = less profit, and all these company's are in business to make a profit.

Yes you can add profit by increasing production but its not a cut and dry as you suggest. It takes a long time to engineer, order, produce, install and debug a production line of that size. You cant just call someone and order equipment like that and have the line up and running next Tuesday..

[streetglideok]

At this point, I would wait and see what comes of the Boston bombing, and the ricin letters. Depending on who Uncle Obama blames, will affect ammo supplies

[Great-Kazoo]

From the article davsel posted:



So running at capacity for 10 years before all of this happened isn't reason enough to ramp up and invest in more equipment?

You're leaving out the most important item. MANPOWER Sure lets hire john & jane doe to run 36/7 . As any business increases the workforce they also increase their INS coverage, FICA (Soc Sec) for the uninformed, workers comp, AND HEALTH INS as mandated by the unreasonable health care act. I can hire 6 more bodies to fill a small window of opportunity. it makes me $500K more in 6 months. However the up front paid out in all benefits, equip etc cost me $501K. Why pay more to make less??
As Circuits pointed out increasing production for something that may or will not maintain todays level, cost a lot more in the long run.

PLUS ........If the assholes in DC have their way the ammo prices could double if not triple due to new TAXES on components and Finished product. How many smaller companies woudl close their doors under those conditions?

[Rabid]

Not to mention as we wind down things in the sandbox won't there be some decent surplus available?
I doubt it. We can not buy US surplus and i do not think i have ever seen British surplus for sale. The rest of the country's may have some but they never really played a big roll in the war. The good news is there is more ammo made that will be available to the public now that the government has less demand.

They are making a lot of ammo but you have to realize every store in America needs to be restocked and that spreads out the supply pretty thin and on top of that people are still hoarding ammo. Even if you are not making a stockpile you are still going to be prone to buy more ammo then you did pre-panic because you are not sure it will be on the shelf next time you want it. It is a big negative feedback loop that is going to take some time to slow down and run its course.
I personally think, if nothing else happens, it will be over a year till you can reliably find ammo if you visit a few stores but i am sure there will be a gun run on the next election and it starts all over again.

[Circuits]

From the article davsel posted:
So running at capacity for 10 years before all of this happened isn't reason enough to ramp up and invest in more equipment?

Manufacturers have very carefully sized their capacity to fill the market demand they have. Running at capacity means they have just enough money invested in capital equipment - right where they want to be, and not a sign to increase capacity. Why would they increase their capacity beyond their market?

Most ammo manufacturers have added capacity in the past ten years - just enough to fill any sustained increases in demand.

[Great-Kazoo]

Manufacturers have very carefully sized their capacity to fill the market demand they have. Running at capacity means they have just enough money invested in capital equipment - right where they want to be, and not a sign to increase capacity. Why would they increase their capacity beyond their market?

Most ammo manufacturers have added capacity in the past ten years - just enough to fill any sustained increases in demand.

Because those who do not comprehend how a business runs, or the logistics, WANT IT NOW!

[Circuits]

So true, Jim.

To put it another way, RCCrawler - why didn't you buy 50 cases when it was cheap and stick that away? You didn't have the money, and/or didn't want that much money tied up in product stuck in your storage room.

The ammo companies don't have 50 million, or 150 million extra cases stashed away to meet spikes in demand because they don't want their money tied up in excess inventory, either.

[RCCrawler]

I did stock up on a ton of stuff, some of which I have recently sold for 300%+ what I paid for them.

I understand how things work and they take time, I would just think that after 10+ years of having a high demand things would be coming into stock at a much quicker rate.

[Colorado_Outback]

I would just think that after 10+ years of having a high demand

Thats just one reporters opinion of the demand..

The demand has been high the last couple months, and around election time but "10+ years of having a high demand"... Not hardly.

[rockhound]

My dad ran into the winchester ammo rep at the store he usually shops at in AZ. The store owner and my dad are good friends and he introduced them. The rep told my dad he expects it will be two years before winchester catches up and that is just based o. The order they have currently. New orders arrive constantly

[sabot_round]

IMHO, it will be too long.[Mad]

[hghclsswhitetrsh]

Ammo shortage?

[hollohas]

At this point, I would wait and see what comes of the Boston bombing, and the ricin letters. Depending on who Uncle Obama blames, will affect ammo supplies

Some Senator is already proposing background checks for smokeless powder because of the Boston bombs...dude doesn't even know what the bombs were made of and he wants to go after reloaders. Fits the agenda, don't let any tragedy go to waste, right?


Current law allows an individual to purchase as much as 50 pounds of explosive “black powder” without a background check, and also permits an individual to purchase unlimited amounts of dangerous “smokeless powder” and “black powder substitute” without a background check. Sen. Lautenberg’s proposal would change that and require a background check for any purchase of these explosive powders.
“It is outrageous that anyone, even a known terrorist, can walk into a store in America and buy explosives without any questions asked,” said Senator Lautenberg. “If we are serious about public safety, we must put these common-sense safeguards in place. While the police have not revealed what specific explosive materials were used in Boston, what we do know is that explosive powder is too easy to anonymously purchase across the country.”


Lautenberg will introduce the “Explosive Materials Background Check Act,”


This requires [facepalm][facepalm][facepalm]

http://www.lautenberg.senate.gov/newsroom/record.cfm?id=341435&

Go after guns (AWB). Go after ammo (EPA) and go after reloading (^This guy). Trifecta.

[Great-Kazoo]

I did stock up on a ton of stuff, some of which I have recently sold for 300%+ what I paid for them.

I understand how things work and they take time, I would just think that after 10+ years of having a high demand things would be coming into stock at a much quicker rate.

So after netting 300% you now have concerns about supply? NEVER sell ammo, unless you can replace it the same day for the original cost. That's ammo supply & demand 101.

[BigDee]

Hopefully after today it will die down but at this point who knows. This market is crazy to the point of being stupid. I know several people who aren't gun people, have no interest in being gun people but hit every gun store and ammo seller daily to get anything they can because they say that ammo is the modern day precious metal and they are investing. I think it's dumb but a lot of people said bitcoins were dumb....

[Great-Kazoo]

Hopefully after today it will die down but at this point who knows. This market is crazy to the point of being stupid. I know several people who aren't gun people, have no interest in being gun people but hit every gun store and ammo seller daily to get anything they can because they say that ammo is the modern day precious metal and they are investing. I think it's dumb but a lot of people said bitcoins were dumb....

You need to brush up on the market. Ammo is the new currency, of course acquiring more to replace the sold stuff is a little harder then before. I reload and don't care one way or the other. Now if only i knew where the wife stashed her supply.

[hghclsswhitetrsh]

I sold 500 rounds of federal/American eagle to my neighbor. Great guy. Money used will get me 40% more in components that I will get from my brother come August.

[roberth]

I see an ad in the trading post for Federal 550 .22LR bulk at $50 now. Prices appear to be coming down.

[hollohas]

I see an ad in the trading post for Federal 550 .22LR bulk at $50 now. Prices appear to be coming down.


Funny guy. Over 2 times normal price = coming down. Oh man, good one.
[ROFL1]

Man I hope it does get back to normal one day...and by that I mean around $20/brick.

[brokenscout]

I wish gas was $1 a gallon, but know "They" know what people will pay, so who knows if it will come down to old prices.

[brokenscout]

http://www.slickguns.com/category/ammo?caliber=3
Funny guy. Over 2 times normal price = coming down. Oh man, good one.
[ROFL1]

Man I hope it does get back to normal one day...and by that I mean around $20/brick.

[roberth]

Funny guy. Over 2 times normal price = coming down. Oh man, good one.
[ROFL1]

Man I hope it does get back to normal one day...and by that I mean around $20/brick.

I know what you mean. :)

It is better than the $110 people were paying at the last Tanner show.

[roberth]

I wish gas was $1 a gallon, but know "They" know what people will pay, so who knows if it will come down to old prices.

I wouldn't bet on it. The consumer has proven how much they are willing to pay. Supply and demand will dictate the price goes lower but if the manufacturer/distributor sees that they can get more they'll charge more too but not twice or three times as much.