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I think the MSM doesn't want a Trump presidency, so they are underreporting his actual numbers. It wouldn't surprise me in the least to see Trump win in a landslide come November. I think this is exactly like the Brexit deal, nobody thought there was any way that the leave side would win, and it won handily.
There is a theory that Trump is underpolling, as some people won't admit that they might vote for him. But Trump is way underperforming even in traditional GOP states against Hillary.
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I dunno, I think there's an awful lot of worrying that's being done prematurely. There's still PLENTY of time for things to change, especially once Trump and Hillary start going head to head in the debates.
The worrying is because Trump has no ground game. None. Zipola. And Hillary already has an experienced, well organized campaign staff literally ten times larger than Trump's. The Clinton's know how to run campaigns and Trump has demonstrated that he does not have a clue.