Odds on ol' Joe.

[FoxtArt]

I'm in general agreement too that the allegations aren't all that strong, but still have much more foundation than the Kavanaugh allegations, which couldn't be really-substantiated by anyone other than the accuser and was very vague. This has the Larry King audio from her mother calling in, a neighbor, a friend, various family, etc, so it's not on the same page, but still as of yet unsubstantiated - it does seems unusual to allege filing a written complaint if you knew in advance it didn't exist, unless she simply thought that couldn't be proven in time for November.

I somewhat wonder if it isn't a case of normal employee-employer disagreements and she may have filed a generic complaint which she now hinges this upon; but even then, a generic complaint would really undermine Biden so hard, whether there actually was a sexual assault or potentially just a verbal one 27 years ago. I don't doubt that he doesn't have an ounce of memory for whatever the truth is, as he hardly seems to have a memory for when he was VP, much less a young Senator - and the real issue is undoubtedly his growing ineptitude, because they've never seemed too creeped out over his skeletons in all the years prior to now.

One bit of joy - Biden's choking on crow hard for sticking his nose into the Kav hearings.

[crays]

I've kind of wondered similar things. It seems unlikely it was planned from step one - from a perspective of "why" as it would seem to cause more damage than good than pursing the desired candidate from the inset (only scenario might be if they wanted to bypass vetting) - that said, Biden has never been their "ideal" guy in a voting contest with Trump. So I do think this opportunity is presented as a get-outta-Biden card that many in their party want to play - and slide in some yet-unnamed woman cheating the process again. (probably not Hillary).

I don't understand enough of the process to even begin to guess what happens next though. If he drops... do they just "default" all the votes to the presumptive VP? There's seems to be real risk of a last-minute shake up, but I don't have an earthly idea what to anticipate actually happening. The NBC interview was fairly light, and he didn't screw it up "as-bad" as Andrew, but I don't think it went well for him. If they find any evidence of a complaint of any type being made in paper, he's a cooked goose. And they might want to ditch him early in the process instead of having that liability show up now in October.

One thing I note is that he is VERY careful trying to avoid saying anything negative about Tara - I'm wondering if that isn't for sake of a risk of a defamation suit... which could open up the university files to discovery. There is public evidence the campaign staff went through those files right after these allegations first emerged, which doesn't help their argument for clamping them down now.

I guess I'll have to break down and actually watch the whole interview. Was trying to avoid it, as he usually makes my head hurt just listening to him.

I'm generally tracking with you on the fact that this was probably not engineered from the get go, and certainly could be a timely bail out for them if he gets progressively worse. Maybe he was the best bet to oust bernie, and now they're circling the wagons while they do damage control... I can't even imagine who they want to present as a replacement.

And as I alluded to in my post and you said in your response, I'm not entirely clear what the rules/procedures/allowances are if he is removed.


ETA: Just saw your edit above, and that is spot on to my thoughts. I do feel if they go this route, there's at least an 80% chance it's a female, and probably non-caucasian.

[FoxtArt]

I can't even imagine who they want to present as a replacement..

That's the scary prospect. If they did default his existing votes to the presumptive VP once announced - the most restrictive governor (Michigan) is not out of question as the nominee, since she's favored. Such a nomination would be devastating to the market in of itself. But who the heck knows how that works, you halfway wonder if they even have "rules" that cover it, at all.

[crays]

That's the scary prospect. If they did default his existing votes to the presumptive VP once announced - the most restrictive governor (Michigan) is not out of question as the nominee, since she's favored. Such a nomination would be devastating to the market in of itself. But who the heck knows how that works, you halfway wonder if they even have "rules" that cover it, at all.

I'm not entirely convinced they don't make up their own, as they feel the need to...

[Gman]

https://www.msnbc.com/morning-joe/wa...de-82865221937

11:58 - 13:20

Hate to link to that, but it gets amusing. Some serious LOL moments right in there. Glad he cleared up that e.g. there's nobody that's aware that's aware of anybody that's aware of awareness about nobody whose aware.

Joe Biden: "I can't remember."
Joe Biden: "I don't remember."
Joe Biden: "That was 27 years ago."
Joe Biden: "I'm not aware."
Joe Biden: "I don't understand it."
Joe Biden: "I don't understand the point you're trying to make."

Pretty funny that he's also concerned about his tax returns being made public while he's running for office. Hmmm, seems the Dems have made a big deal about the Donald's tax returns being made public.

After 10 minutes in he totally falls apart. If you don't watch the whole thing, just jump to 12 minutes in.

The only way he goes further is if they lock him away.

[CS1983]

At this point, him being allowed to keep embarrassing himself is akin to elder abuse. However, if it means no democrat president for 4 more years, let's beat the crap out of grandpa.

[Hummer]

It's rather sad that Joe Biden has both feet through the door of dementia. The pressures of the campaign have likely accelerated his fall. It reminds me of Bob Dole who rather dramatically fell down through his campaign. Picking and rewarding party elders for their loyalty hasn't produced good presidential candidates. They really aren't up to the task of the campaign or the presidency.

I expect Joe will be replaced. This article proffers how that might come about.

https://theweek.com/articles/911903/...oust-joe-biden

[funkymonkey1111]

I think Cuomo may be a contender in the shadows

[DavieD55]

I'm guessing he will drop out at the last minute and then they'll replace with soetoro's wife or something like that.

[FoxtArt]

Thanks Hummer. Seems pretty well put together. It looks like the replacement, if one is made, would most likely be selected by a mere 350 people Democratic National Committee voting in late August or September (very late in the game).

I'm sure it would cause a lot of gnashing of teeth and even hard division in their own party, but we already know from 2016 that the DNC seems to want to pick their nominee regardless, so the scandal wouldn't be unprecedented. Then we'd have little to no vetting, little to no debating, yet tens to hundreds of millions in last minute ads (Bloomberg). Still, I feel like it's hard to estimate if that would be a better or worse outcome as far as election risks, since it would feel "dirty" all around to most people - it certainly would end this false-bull run right quick, possibly right into a second heavy crash. Extreme caution on the market is likely warranted immediately after Biden's nomination based on that info.