Long Position on Silver and Gold?

[ChunkyMonkey]

I am ready to long both Gold and Silver due to recent price drop. Anyone else been watching the market? A friend of mine in Singapore is dumping his portfolio in favor of Silver future... the words are the Chinese are buying up all available local silver.

http://articles.marketwatch.com/2013-01-25/markets/36537759_1_investment-demand-gold-bulls-american-eagle-silver-bullion

http://imageplay.net/img/tya22307042/silvereagle.jpg

[sniper7]

Can I have one?

[hghclsswhitetrsh]

I've read(not that I'm educated on the subject) that silver is due to explode. Been saying that for years. It hit $50 not too long ago, while many were projecting it to hit +$150. I'm in it for the long haul.

[ChunkyMonkey]

I've read(not that I'm educated on the subject) that silver is due to explode. Been saying that for years. It hit $50 not too long ago, while many were projecting it to hit +$150. I'm in it for the long haul.

Yep.. started buying when it was $9 few years ago. Sold most at $39... ready to buy again.



Can I have one?

Sure... trade you 3 pmags.

[flan7211]

I buy every week. It may drop or rise but I'm in deep. Silver of course. Poor man's gold. Hey and if I could give advice...if you're on a tight budget buy 90% silver coinage. I do Franklin halves. Rounds give too much profit to the dealer. Usually you can get a better deal on 90.

[beast556]

What is this silver that you speak of???????????

[MrPrena]

One of the guy I know is going LONG on silver. He is buying physical silver w/ premium.
I think he is only anticipating on US having bigger debt near future.

[hghclsswhitetrsh]

Don't forget copper rounds!

[Mick-Boy]

All my precious metals investments are tied up in brass, copper and lead. [Coffee]

[WETWRKS]

If Obama does something stupid like make "assault weapons" illegal the prices will go up. Otherwise I expect them to hover around where they are now until he leaves office. If we then get a republican I would expect them to start going down. Otherwise I would expect them to hold in this area unless that democrat is as bad or worse than Obama.

[rondog]

Current 3 yr. chart for silver is showing that it could possibly go back to $26 range, it has strong support there at the $26.10-$26.15 price. It could very well drop to that point before turning back up. Of course, it could take off tomorrow too. Silver's been trending downward for the last several months, it's about time for it to reverse. If it hit $25, I'd bet it to take off like a rocket.

http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b150/rinselman/silver22513.png

Been some very strong rumors and speculation that the silver market has been manipulated for many years by some very big players, as in major banking institutions. There's a LOT of analysts that are watching the silver markets like hawks, trying to figure out who's doing it and why. There are several major suspects, and they're doing it because they're making huge money at it, although it's illegal as hell.

It's a well-known and proven fact that the short positions in silver that are keeping the price down are far, far larger than the entire worldwide annual production could supply. This is the only commodity that has ever been in this situation where the demand constantly far outstrips the supply, yet the price doesn't rise to the levels that it should, according to the laws of supply and demand. This means that it's being manipulated to artificially keep the price down. Why? Because the owners of these massive short positions would be obliterated if the price took off like it should. And the Commodities Futures Commission is fully aware of this, yet they turn a blind eye to it because it truly is a bomb waiting to go off.

I only wish I owned more than what I have, I'd be happy just having back what I had to sell over the years. But for anyone interested in a silver mining company, do some research on Silver Wheaton (SLW). They're in a very unique position, much too complex to talk about here, but I've made a LOT of money trading their stock and every analysis you read about them is incredibly positive. Basically, they're not a mining company, but they contract with non-silver mining companies to buy their unwanted silver production at a very low price and for many, many years into the future. They pay these companies cash now for future silver production, based on past production and future projections, and pay like 10 cents on the dollar for it. They also do this with gold.

Do some research on SLW. Right now it's in a dip, and a perfect time to buy it. Owning physical silver is a wonderful profit opportunity, but SLW could be even bigger.

[MrPrena]

^^

It was interesting to compare SLW with SLW.TO, CAD, SLV, and mar silver.

[Cylinder Head]

With the entire developed world engaging in some form of quantitative easing and places like Russia and China snatching up precious metals, it wouldn't be a bad investment long term. However, didn't gold just fall through a well established support level?

[Bailey Guns]

My 7 or 8 ounces are gonna make me rich some day. That's right...I'm hoarding it!

[rondog]

With the entire developed world engaging in some form of quantitative easing and places like Russia and China snatching up precious metals, it wouldn't be a bad investment long term. However, didn't gold just fall through a well established support level?

Depends on how you look at it. Step back and look at the bigger picture of a 3 year chart, and gold is just approaching the support level around $1525. And considering the current puddle of shit the world is in, if I had the money to pursue a gold position, I'd be a-thinkin' about it.

When I first started sniffing around the gold and silver markets about 12 years ago, silver was around $4.25/ounce and gold was around $250. I remember people on the PM forums praying for the day that gold would go over $500/oz.

http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b150/rinselman/gold22513.png

[10mm-man]

What is the best way to buy Silver and were? i read 90% rounds etc. I have bought in the past from a silver store but is that the best way?

[ChunkyMonkey]

What is the best way to buy Silver and were? i read 90% rounds etc. I have bought in the past from a silver store but is that the best way?

Personally, I only do maple leaf and american eagle in both gold and silver. They are highly sought after and have +value over spot price. Kitco and north west mint have always had best pricing. Locally, some seller asks for 10-20% over spot.. yikes!

https://online.kitco.com/

http://bullion.nwtmint.com/silver.php

PS.. how about producing some silver lower as ar-15.co collectible/fund raising.

[Sawin]

What is the best way to buy Silver and were? i read 90% rounds etc. I have bought in the past from a silver store but is that the best way?

I just buy bullion rounds or ingots from coin shops in the metro area, the silver guy at the tanner shows, or from www.coin-rare.com.

[rondog]

What is the best way to buy Silver and were? i read 90% rounds etc. I have bought in the past from a silver store but is that the best way?
Www.jhmint.com

[10mm-man]

PS.. how about producing some silver lower as ar-15.co collectible/fund raising.


That is not a bad idea! That would be one pricey lower...... Actually workable? Or in an 80% lower?

[10mm-man]

I just buy bullion rounds or ingots from coin shops in the metro area, the silver guy at the tanner shows, or from www.coin-rare.com (http://www.coin-rare.com).


i've done that but as mentioned 10-20% above spot doesn't appeal to me then when i sell it's 10% below spot.

[beast556]

Silver lower would be bad ass!!!!!! Best of bolth worlds guns and P-metals.

The cheapist I can find eagles locally is 3$ over. That is what I get 90% of the time.

[ChunkyMonkey]

That is not a bad idea! That would be one pricey lower...... Actually workable? Or in an 80% lower?

It'd be cheaper to produce a 100% lower, no? 80% lower gotta be at least 10oz heavier.

[Sawin]

i've done that but as mentioned 10-20% above spot doesn't appeal to me then when i sell it's 10% below spot.

Who said anything about selling? http://www.coin-rare.com/silver-bars-1oz.aspx These are $1 over spot for a single ounce ingot....Dependent upon quantity, weight, payment method and shipping, they can be another couple dollars higher per ounce, but I hate to tell you, you won't be finding any from dealers/websites for less than a couple bucks over spot... if you do, please inform me. 2-3 over spot is the norm in my experience.

[ChunkyMonkey]

Weight of a stripped lower is roughly 9oz... $270 in silver, can probably retail for $500 as serialized collectible.

[Sawin]

Weight of a stripped lower is roughly 9oz... $270 in silver, can probably retail for $500 as serialized collectible.

Easily. I bet if you put one unique one out on gunbroker to whet the whistle of the public, it would sell for at least 5x that. Imagine, the very first solid silver stripped lower at auction? Did you see the AR10 that went for over $136,000? http://www.gunbroker.com/Auction/ViewItem.aspx?Item=322196026

[10mm-man]

Silver lower would be bad ass!!!!!! Best of bolth worlds guns and P-metals.

The cheapist I can find eagles locally is 3$ over. That is what I get 90% of the time.


That would be ok IMO. mind sharing were i can get them? PM me if you don't want to post. thanks!

[ChunkyMonkey]

Easily. I bet if you put one unique one out on gunbroker to whet the whistle of the public, it would sell for at least 5x that. Imagine, the very first solid silver stripped lower at auction? Did you see the AR10 that went for over $136,000? http://www.gunbroker.com/Auction/ViewItem.aspx?Item=322196026

It depends on who produce/certify it. Contact Ted Nugent and call it Nugent's Nugget w/ his signature on the silver lower, now you are talking!

[10mm-man]

Weight of a stripped lower is roughly 9oz... $270 in silver, can probably retail for $500 as serialized collectible.

I think regular lowers are going for that now! lol... Keep in mind it would have to be billet, which equals waste. Of course the shavings could be recycled but I am thinking it would cost more than $500 retail.... Could be wrong- I'll pass it along to the machinist when I get some time.

[10mm-man]

It depends on who produce/certify it. Contact Ted Nugent and call it Nugent's Nugget w/ his signature on the silver lower, now you are talking!


I wouldn't wipe my A%& with Nugent's signature...........

[hollohas]

Kitco and north west mint have always had best pricing. Locally, some seller asks for 10-20% over spot.. yikes!

https://online.kitco.com/

http://bullion.nwtmint.com/silver.php



??

Both of these places are 10%+ over spot for silver eagles even at higher quantities. Much more for smaller quantities especially when you include shipping. What am I missing?

[hollohas]

The cheapist I can find eagles locally is 3$ over. That is what I get 90% of the time.

You paying local sales tax on those?

[10mm-man]

It'd be cheaper to produce a 100% lower, no? 80% lower gotta be at least 10oz heavier.


Cheaper yes, but then it wouldn't have to go through a BGC and transfer..... And it actually might not be cheaper from the machining stand point...

[ChunkyMonkey]

I wouldn't wipe my A%& with Nugent's signature...........

Most of us agree with you. My point still stands... find that specific narrow market with loyal followers, then you'll have yourself a bidding war on low number item.



??

Both of these places are 10%+ over spot for silver eagles even at higher quantities. Much more for smaller quantities especially when you include shipping. What am I missing?

It should say over value. Eagle's value obviously is roughly 10% over spot.

[10mm-man]

Most of us agree with you. My point still stands... find that specific narrow market with loyal followers, then you'll have yourself a bidding war on low number item.


Good point!!

[J]

Weight of a stripped lower is roughly 9oz... $270 in silver, can probably retail for $500 as serialized collectible.

Lots more than that. Silver is much heavier than aluminum. About 4x heavier. So $1100 in silver, plus waste, plus production costs, you are talking $2k minimum I'd wager.

[ChunkyMonkey]

Thank you J... I am so stupid [facepalm]

[10mm-man]

Thank you J... I am so stupid [facepalm]


Not entirely! I think you might be on to something here and it is GENIUS!!

[kidicarus13]

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/great-gold-crash-2013-arrived-221432673.html

SELL SELL SELL! Oh sorry, too late.

[roberth]

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/great-gold-crash-2013-arrived-221432673.html

SELL SELL SELL! Oh sorry, too late.

:)

I hope it crashes, then I'll be able to buy more.

[Rooskibar03]

:)

I hope it crashes, then I'll be able to buy more.

Sorry but we are the exact opposite. Need it to spike to get out, taking a mother effen bath on a very large amount.

[<MADDOG>]

As someone who see what $'s the gold and silver mines here in CO are investing in production, I'm buying.

Coal on the other hand is scared as hell...

[sroz]

As someone who see what $'s the gold and silver mines here in CO are investing in production, I'm buying.

Coal on the other hand is scared as hell...

Is your point that they are producing more or less?

[roberth]

Sorry but we are the exact opposite. Need it to spike to get out, taking a mother effen bath on a very large amount.

I'm underwater too but I'm used to it, sometimes I think I'd be better off spending my money renting an apartment, going out to dinner every night, and getting a new car every year.

[BushMasterBoy]

Just remember the .gov is printing $85 billion every month to keep the economy afloat. It is called "quantative easing". Really just another ponzi scheme. The value of the US dollar will suffer in the end. I always think of the World War 2 US soldier in Holland that bought a hotel for a $20 dollar gold piece. In 1960 a silver dollar could be had for one dollar bill, but not today!

[rondog]

As someone who see what $'s the gold and silver mines here in CO are investing in production, I'm buying.

What are you seeing? If I may ask.....

[BushMasterBoy]

I was at the Cresson project in Victor yesterday. Some serious building going on and about a mile of road has been rerouted. It is owned by Anglo Ashanti. I have heard that they found ore so rich it will be sorted by hand the way they did it a 100 years ago.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cripple_Creek_%26_Victor_Gold_Mine

[PSS]

Silver mines in the Ourey area are investing millions into the mines there. They seem convinced that silver is going to skyrocket in price. Rumor has it the Star mine at the old Revenue mine has invested over 200 million already in that mine. I've been delivering material for the last year up there and it's not hard to believe.

[rondog]

Glad to hear this! My SLW shares haven't been doing well the last year, time for a change.

[Sawin]

I stopped calculating how much down I was after 10 or 12% on my physical bullion, simply because it doesn't matter much for my intentions... The whole reason why I bought any at the prices it has been these past 3-4 years is because I wanted insurance and diversification from the USD. That still stands true today at these lower prices, so I continue to buy a little at a time and let dollar cost averaging do its thing. I never do anything "all at once", so the idea of "getting out" is not even under consideration. I will keep my bullion until I retire and am forced to liquidate because I'm broke, or I'll leave it my heir(s). If it spikes, I will sell the portion necessary to get my money back, and maybe a portion beyond that based on profit margins, but never all of it...
Personally, I will continue to buy a few ounces here and there as discretionary $ allows...especially as the price drops. If time proves that I "over spent", well dang, I made a poor investment time-wise, but I still own it and have at least that little bit of security that I didn't have before...

[hghclsswhitetrsh]

Well put sawin. I agree.

[sellersm]

I stopped calculating how much down I was after 10 or 12% on my physical bullion, simply because it doesn't matter much for my intentions... The whole reason why I bought any at the prices it has been these past 3-4 years is because I wanted insurance and diversification from the USD. That still stands true today at these lower prices, so I continue to buy a little at a time and let dollar cost averaging do its thing. I never do anything "all at once", so the idea of "getting out" is not even under consideration. I will keep my bullion until I retire and am forced to liquidate because I'm broke, or I'll leave it my heir(s). If it spikes, I will sell the portion necessary to get my money back, and maybe a portion beyond that based on profit margins, but never all of it...
Personally, I will continue to buy a few ounces here and there as discretionary $ allows...especially as the price drops. If time proves that I "over spent", well dang, I made a poor investment time-wise, but I still own it and have at least that little bit of security that I didn't have before...

^This. As mentioned in the other 'precious metals thread', we all have our different reasons for 'investing' in PM... My reasons are close to what you stated.

I'm glad to hear that local mines are 'busy'!

[sellersm]

Glad to hear this! My SLW shares haven't been doing well the last year, time for a change.

What are the stock trading names of some of these other places?

[roberth]

I stopped calculating how much down I was after 10 or 12% on my physical bullion, simply because it doesn't matter much for my intentions... The whole reason why I bought any at the prices it has been these past 3-4 years is because I wanted insurance and diversification from the USD. That still stands true today at these lower prices, so I continue to buy a little at a time and let dollar cost averaging do its thing. I never do anything "all at once", so the idea of "getting out" is not even under consideration. I will keep my bullion until I retire and am forced to liquidate because I'm broke, or I'll leave it my heir(s). If it spikes, I will sell the portion necessary to get my money back, and maybe a portion beyond that based on profit margins, but never all of it...
Personally, I will continue to buy a few ounces here and there as discretionary $ allows...especially as the price drops. If time proves that I "over spent", well dang, I made a poor investment time-wise, but I still own it and have at least that little bit of security that I didn't have before...


Well put sawin. I agree.


Sawin is right on! Terrific post.

Remember, if you don't physically hold it, you do not own it.


^This. As mentioned in the other 'precious metals thread', we all have our different reasons for 'investing' in PM... My reasons are close to what you stated.

I'm glad to hear that local mines are 'busy'!

I'm glad those mines are getting busier too.

[Aloha_Shooter]

Surprised no one mentioned APMEX (http://www.apmex.com) as a source. It's the PM exchange Ann Barnhardt recommends -- whether or not you're a fan of hers, their prices seem pretty competitive.

Example: 2013 American Silver Eagles (1 oz), price as of Oct 14, 10:36 MDT
APMEX: 1-19 @ $25.96, 20-99 @$25.46, $50 min
Kitco: 1-99 @ $25.07, $2500 min to ship
Northwest Territoritorial: 60-119@$25.48, 60 oz min
JH: @$25.49, $1500 min

[sellersm]

Check out Westminster, Provident Metals, Silver Towne as well. They're very competitive as well, depending on what you're buying (and when).

[ChunkyMonkey]

Surprised no one mentioned APMEX (http://www.apmex.com) as a source. It's the PM exchange Ann Barnhardt recommends -- whether or not you're a fan of hers, their prices seem pretty competitive.

Example: 2013 American Silver Eagles (1 oz), price as of Oct 14, 10:36 MDT
APMEX: 1-19 @ $25.96, 20-99 @$25.46, $50 min
Kitco: 1-99 @ $25.07, $2500 min to ship
Northwest Territoritorial: 60-119@$25.48, 60 oz min
JH: @$25.49, $1500 min

Just go through ebay for small amount from apmex, mmc etc. sometimes they have cheaper or free shipping. Under $500, buy locally to avoid shipping. I can get $3-5 over spot locally.

[sellersm]

There's also http://www.gainesvillecoins.com/

When SilverTowne has their free shipping deals, or Provident Metals, I've been able to get items for less than local prices! In the Springs, I shop at Hallenbeck since Dave closed his store (CO precious metal & coin, or whatever it was called). Dave's assistant, Jan, now works for Hallenbeck.

[rondog]

What are the stock trading names of some of these other places?

Go to Kitco.com for great info about all aspects of precious metals and their stocks, also stockcharts.com is a good place to track them.

[davsel]

There's also http://www.gainesvillecoins.com/

When SilverTowne has their free shipping deals, or Provident Metals, I've been able to get items for less than local prices! In the Springs, I shop at Hallenbeck since Dave closed his store (CO precious metal & coin, or whatever it was called). Dave's assistant, Jan, now works for Hallenbeck.

I usually buy online from APMEX and sell locally at Colorado Coin Galleries on Maizeland Rd at Academy Blvd in Colorado Springs.
I'll have to check out Hallenbeck.

[Roger Ronas]

Contact or address for Hallenback? In the Springs and my daughter wants to start in silver.
Thanks
Roger



There's also http://www.gainesvillecoins.com/

When SilverTowne has their free shipping deals, or Provident Metals, I've been able to get items for less than local prices! In the Springs, I shop at Hallenbeck since Dave closed his store (CO precious metal & coin, or whatever it was called). Dave's assistant, Jan, now works for Hallenbeck.

[sellersm]

Contact or address for Hallenback? In the Springs and my daughter wants to start in silver.
Thanks
Roger

https://www.hallenbeckcoingallery.com/

[th3w01f]

I'm picking up some of these - http://www.providentmetals.com/zombucks-walker-1-oz-silver-round.html

Should be a fun conversation piece and will probably get some additional appreciation over spot on ebay from people trying to complete the set down the road.

[Sawin]

I'm picking up some of these - http://www.providentmetals.com/zombucks-walker-1-oz-silver-round.html

Should be a fun conversation piece and will probably get some additional appreciation over spot on ebay from people trying to complete the set down the road.

hahaha those are pretty cool for the zombie fans among us.

[roberth]

hahaha those are pretty cool for the zombie fans among us.

Yah they are!

[jason303]

I like Provident for their prices and low shipping. Here's a good link to compare prices live and it lists the shipping.
https://comparesilverprices.com/
Does anyone have an opinion of
http://www.eriegoldandsilver.com/
? Been thinking of checking them out.

[BigNick73]

I'm picking up some of these - http://www.providentmetals.com/zombucks-walker-1-oz-silver-round.html

Should be a fun conversation piece and will probably get some additional appreciation over spot on ebay from people trying to complete the set down the road.

damnit, i was trying to hold out but had to order some, btw there's 2 styles out http://www.providentmetals.com/bullion/bullion-by-series/zombucks-currency-of-the-apocalypse.html?ref=slideshow got to get em all now that silver shield silver bullet went down the crapper with their designs.

And my favorite by far is the kilo coins perth puts out.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5DTjahg-5Q4

[Sawin]

I like Provident for their prices and low shipping. Here's a good link to compare prices live and it lists the shipping.
https://comparesilverprices.com/
Does anyone have an opinion of
http://www.eriegoldandsilver.com/
? Been thinking of checking them out.

I've been to Erie Gold and Coin twice, both times in early Spring of this year. I bought a bunch of random 1 oz silver "Christmas Rounds" that they had just taken in for a fair price. Most of their collection at the time was coinage that I was not looking for, so I didn't pay it any attention. I went straight for bullion and junk silver, and their selection was low. It's at least worth calling them or dropping by to see what they have. The two gents seemed like nice guys both times I went in.

[kwando]

Chinese buying silver... BLAH! They aren't real Chinese. ;)

[mbl]

I have bought at Erie Gold and Coin a couple of times. There prices were hit and miss, sometimes they were very close to spot, other times too far above for me. The main issue I had was that I allocated X number of dollars to spend on silver, but they never had enough on hand for me to buy all that I was looking for.

They are worth giving a call to see what they have on hand and their price. From my experience, they are nice guys, and treat you fair.

[encorehunter]

I'm sorry, but I am not understanding all of this. You say locally, you can buy $3-5 over spot price. You pay 10-20% more (at $25/oz) than what it is worth, but when you want to sell it, you take a 10% hit. So what I am reading is you need a minimum of 30% increase just so you can break even. I have some silver, maybe 20oz, but all has been bought from individuals at spot price. I guess I am hopeful it will go up, but when you are 30% behind when you start, it makes a person wonder.

[davsel]

I'm sorry, but I am not understanding all of this. You say locally, you can buy $3-5 over spot price. You pay 10-20% more (at $25/oz) than what it is worth, but when you want to sell it, you take a 10% hit. So what I am reading is you need a minimum of 30% increase just so you can break even. I have some silver, maybe 20oz, but all has been bought from individuals at spot price. I guess I am hopeful it will go up, but when you are 30% behind when you start, it makes a person wonder.

There will come a time, within my lifetime, in which no amount of dollars will buy one ounce of the silver I hold.

[BushMasterBoy]

The silver I bought in 2006 for $4 is now worth over 500% what I paid for it. As the mortgage meltdown approached it kept climbing and peaked near $50 an ounce. I have some silver I paid $30 for. Truth is I bought something I hope I never have to use. So yes, some of my silver is worth 30% less than I paid, but I can almost guarantee you that 10 years from now, I will be way ahead financially. It is not something I bought planning to sell next week. And as for trading for real goods, I see all the time "will trade for precious metals".

35125

[kidicarus13]

I'm sorry, but I am not understanding all of this. You say locally, you can buy $3-5 over spot price. You pay 10-20% more (at $25/oz) than what it is worth, but when you want to sell it, you take a 10% hit. So what I am reading is you need a minimum of 30% increase just so you can break even. I have some silver, maybe 20oz, but all has been bought from individuals at spot price. I guess I am hopeful it will go up, but when you are 30% behind when you start, it makes a person wonder.

That's the retail scam of precious metals. The buyer is losing 25% to 30% of their investment before they get to see tomorrow's price that may go up or down.

[encorehunter]

That's the retail scam of precious metals. The buyer is losing 25% to 30% of their investment before they get to see tomorrow's price that may go up or down.
This is what I am talking about. I don't mind investing in silver, but why do I have to be the 25-30% behind before I even start. I think you are right, it is a scam.

[roberth]

i understand where you're coming from.

For instance, spot is 21, the markup is 5.50 for 26.50 and then add 10% sales tax for a grand total of 29.15

I think spot will go above 30, I just don't know when.

[hatidua]

I don't mind investing in silver, but why do I have to be the 25-30% behind before I even start. I think you are right, it is a scam.

No, it's not a scam any more than the grocery store is a scam, Home Depot, the car dealer, the gun shop, or the farmer with a vegetable stand is a scam - buy any of those items today and try to sell them tomorrow for exactly what you paid for them today. You don't get to buy other retail things at wholesale, why should PM's be different: the dealers have lights to keep on and space to rent, if they sell it to you at $20, and buy it back from you at $20, how are they supposed to keep the store open?

If you bought a case (5,000rds) of .22 ammo in January of 2012 for $200, you couldn't sell it back to the vendor the next day for $200. However, if you saved that case until January of 2013, you could have very easily sold it for $600. Now, would buying a case for $200 that I couldn't flip the next day for $200 be a scam? or would waiting 12 months and flipping it for 3X what I paid simply be construed as gouging?

[Sawin]

No, it's not a scam any more than the grocery store is a scam, Home Depot, the car dealer, the gun shop, or the farmer with a vegetable stand is a scam - buy any of those items today and try to sell them tomorrow for exactly what you paid for them today. You don't get to buy other retail things at wholesale, why should PM's be different: the dealers have lights to keep on and space to rent, if they sell it to you at $20, and buy it back from you at $20, how are they supposed to keep the store open?

If you bought a case (5,000rds) of .22 ammo in January of 2012 for $200, you couldn't sell it back to the vendor the next day for $200. However, if you saved that case until January of 2013, you could have very easily sold it for $600. Now, would buying a case for $200 that I couldn't flip the next day for $200 be a scam? or would waiting 12 months and flipping it for 3X what I paid simply be construed as gouging?

ding ding ding [Beer]

[Sawin]

Like I've said before, and some of you already get it, I'm buying physical PM's along with useful goods and learning practical skills, as an insurance policy... all of this could turn out to be a positive investment at some point in my life, or it could turn out to be a bad one, but either way, I have at least some form of "wealth security" beyond the dollars in my bank... that's all it is.

If you bought an ounce of silver for $25 this week, would you miss the $25? Would your budget suffer? If so, don't buy it... if you wouldn't miss it and still eat well, and would spend that $25 on something else with zero tangible value, then I would ask "why not?".

[ChunkyMonkey]

This is what I am talking about. I don't mind investing in silver, but why do I have to be the 25-30% behind before I even start. I think you are right, it is a scam.

LOL. Silver like your mortgaged house are not investment. All appreciating items are leverage against the USD. A great example was during the melt down... gas price was skyrocketing.. Your USD dropped in value. Meanwhile I used a monster box of American eagle to purchase one of the rental condos. (2009 a box of silver was $4750.. Post melt down was $23000.)

Now the clear and free condo is my own lil money printing machine which returned my initial cost of $4750 within 10 months. :)

Hatidua explained it very well on the mark up part.

[kidicarus13]

I should not have used the word SCAM, I don't believe it's a scam per se. I just don't see other investments losing 25-30% off the top when you invest in them. PMs are for some and not others and I'm glad we all have choices.

[ChunkyMonkey]

I should not have used the word SCAM, I don't believe it's a scam per se. I just don't see other investiments losing 25-30% off the top when you invest in them. PMs are for some and not others and I'm glad we all have choices.

Maybe because it's not an investment? [Flower]

[kidicarus13]

Maybe because it's not an investment? [Flower]

So gold is not an investment? Your goal is not to make money (or lose less "value") when you buy physical gold? I must know more!

[ChunkyMonkey]

Without writing up 10 paragraph worth of explanation why I am buying silver...

Treat silver as kryptonite against inflation/recession/market crash. It is your life line, a security, an insurance per se.

When market crashes, your silver's value increases upto 500% (based on factual history). Since so far we are averaging one market crash/recession every decade or so, I would take that insurance very seriously. Considering the US fed govt has no way to pay down its 16 trillion dollar debt other than devaluing the USD.

When you buy your health insurance, you lose money every single month. It's only worth its value and beyond when you needed it! Yet, we all (I hope) have health insurance. Well Silver is like your financial insurance, only better... you can still sell the silver at any given time at market price, even if you lose some value at given time; whereas any other insurance, you simply cannot get your money back.

The End.

EDIT: I lost my life saving, some inheritance in 1997 (3 market crashes ago). I haven't lost a penny since then thanks to Silver

[sellersm]

Well said, ChunkyMonkey! It's a hedge against inflation. At least that's they way I look at it...

[sellersm]

I should not have used the word SCAM, I don't believe it's a scam per se. I just don't see other investments losing 25-30% off the top when you invest in them. PMs are for some and not others and I'm glad we all have choices.

There are some investments which are 'losing' at first: ever buy into an oil well? Or a new mine? Or how about some funds with high up-front fees?

But as already stated, some of us don't look at PMs as 'investments'...

[<MADDOG>]

Without writing up 10 paragraph worth of explanation why I am buying silver...

Treat silver as kryptonite against inflation/recession/market crash. It is your life line, a security, an insurance per se.

When market crashes, your silver's value increases upto 500% (based on factual history). Since so far we are averaging one market crash/recession every decade or so, I would take that insurance very seriously. Considering the US fed govt has no way to pay down its 16 trillion dollar debt other than devaluing the USD. .....

+1

I too could write a a page as to why!

My summary viewpoint; I am buying a small amount of "wealth insurance" every month, and hedging against the dollar. Why? Fiat currencies have a repeated history of dieing, but true money in the forms of silver and gold keep coming back. And if our current system does not crash in my lifetime, I can always pass my goods onto my children and grand-children. I sleep better at night either way.

And to answer queries about my earlier post: CC&V is building a new processing facility that is easily in the 9 digits, and at least two silver/moly mines on the western slope that have been dormant for many years are now reopening and going into exploratory phases. The conglomerates that own these holes don't go digging unless they see an upside...

[encorehunter]

I guess the problem I am having is paying more than it is worth up front. I don't have a problem with investing in it. Knowing the value of it prior to buying it and then paying 10-20% over is the thing I don't like. I agree that it will go back up and make money, but if in 10 years, it goes up 50%, when you sell it, you only make 20%.

[Dave_L]

I think you're missing the point. MOST people aren't buying it in hopes of turning a profit. It's an insurance policy against the dollar going to crap. You don't buy a home insurance policy as an investment. You buy it in case your house is totaled. It gives you money to start fresh. It's the same idea behind PM's. Dollar goes to $0, you can have valuable metals saved up to buy goods when things bounce back. Not just valueless paper bills. PM's will always have SOME kind of value in a market. Dollar bills may not.

"When there's blood in the streets, buy real estate"

[sellersm]

“Whenever destroyers appear among men, they start by destroying money, for money is men's protection and the base of a moral existence. Destroyers seize gold and leave to its owners a counterfeit pile of paper. This kills all objective standards and delivers men into the arbitrary power of an arbitrary setter of values. Gold was an objective value, an equivalent of wealth produced. Paper is a mortgage on wealth that does not exist, backed by a gun aimed at those who are expected to produce it. Paper is a check drawn by legal looters upon an account which is not theirs: upon the virtue of the victims. Watch for the day when it bounces, marked: 'Account overdrawn.'” - Ayn Rand

[encorehunter]

I think you're missing the point. MOST people aren't buying it in hopes of turning a profit. It's an insurance policy against the dollar going to crap. You don't buy a home insurance policy as an investment. You buy it in case your house is totaled. It gives you money to start fresh. It's the same idea behind PM's. Dollar goes to $0, you can have valuable metals saved up to buy goods when things bounce back. Not just valueless paper bills. PM's will always have SOME kind of value in a market. Dollar bills may not.

"When there's blood in the streets, buy real estate" This makes much more sense. I was looking at it totally as an investment.

[roberth]

I think you're missing the point. MOST people aren't buying it in hopes of turning a profit. It's an insurance policy against the dollar going to crap. You don't buy a home insurance policy as an investment. You buy it in case your house is totaled. It gives you money to start fresh. It's the same idea behind PM's. Dollar goes to $0, you can have valuable metals saved up to buy goods when things bounce back. Not just valueless paper bills. PM's will always have SOME kind of value in a market. Dollar bills may not.

"When there's blood in the streets, buy real estate"

Thank you.

[<MADDOG>]

This makes much more sense. I was looking at it totally as an investment.

Really? After 10 pages?

DaveL, you should teach calculus!

[Sawin]

Really? After 10 pages?

DaveL, you should teach calculus!

I had the same thought... *shrug*

[Irving]

I should really look into buying PM. I currently have 1 oz of silver that was given to me as a graduation gift and promptly thrown into a shoe box.

[sellersm]

An example of what could possibly happen to the USD as the world currency: http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/10/17_China_Is_Setting_Up_The_Worst_Nightmare_For_The _US.html


On the heels of Washington desperately moving to buy more time to deal with its financial crisis, today Canadian legend John Ing warned King World News that China is preparing to unleash the “worst nightmare” for the United States. Ing, who has been in the business for 43 years, also stated that the Chinese are about to make a “major move” which will enable the timetable for this “nightmare” to be greatly accelerated.

Ing: “Washington kicking the can down the road doesn’t solve the debt problem. Apparently this process has been so fun they are going to do it all over again, and the markets are getting pretty jaundiced about it. But standing back, the fact is that the US debt is still escalating....

“The US dollar remains weak at just over 80. It did not rally on today’s news. Meanwhile, in the gold market we have an option expiry on October 28th, and we know what usually happens ahead of those, especially given the dramatic drawdown in inventories on the Comex. But my expectation is that we have seen the lows in both gold and silver. I still feel quite confident of that.”



Eric King: “Amazingly, the last time we spoke you predicted that gold could have a $25 dip at the most, and then gold would bounce back, and that’s exactly what we’ve seen so far. What do you expect from here?”



Ing: “There is the need for a dramatic rebound in the price of gold because we saw the 2,000+ contracts which were dumped on the market late last week. My expectation is now that the $1,330 level represents a key area. If gold breaks through that area on the rebound, that will solidify the fact that we have seen the bottom, and people will start coming into gold on the long side once again.



People forget, but we still have the European problems. Their debt is also escalating. So, we will see more recurring problems with debt financing in the eurozone. For example, Spain managed to get off a 30-year note, but Italy and Greece still have some funds to raise.



Then, on this side of the Atlantic you have the push on Yellen to give some sort of indication as to here plans for quantitative easing. But it certainly appears that QE will go into 2014 at any rate. So, the markets, which were all set up for the ‘tapering,’ will now have to readjust, and this means a push upward for the gold market.”



Ing added: “Of interest are the developments in China and India. China and India will take up all of the Western world’s gold production this year. Now, the Chinese have not been idle while the debt discussions have been unfolding. As an example, the Chinese have recently signed a deal in the UK that allows for the renminbi to be converted into pounds. This is something like 24 countries now which are now on board with China’s currency. The bottom line is the Chinese are slowly and quietly making the renminbi convertible.



The next major move for the Chinese is they will allow for their big state-owned companies to buy other companies. That’s a good way for them to unload their foreign exchange reserves, particularly dollar reserves. When that happens, Eric, we will see the first competitive currency against the US dollar, which up to now has held the preeminent position as the world’s reserve currency since 1944.



This process by the Chinese to unseat the US dollar as the supreme currency has recently been accelerated because of concerns about the recent chaos in Washington. You also have Russia now pushing for an alternative reserve currency. So this international movement for an alternative reserve currency is now unfolding in a major way, and it will have incredibly dramatic ramifications for the United States in the future.



But all of this is positive for gold because we are seeing an enormous pickup not only in Chinese consumption, and in bar premiums, but the same thing is happening in India as we now move into the seasonally high period for Indian consumption.



I would just add that 15 years ago the Chinese renminbi was not even on the radar screen of foreign currency traders. Today it is one of the top ten currencies traded in the world, and the Chinese are quickly setting the stage for the renminbi to become the United States’ worst nightmare as they aggressively position their currency to eventually unseat the dollar from its position of global supremacy.”

[ChunkyMonkey]

I should really look into buying PM. I currently have 1 oz of silver that was given to me as a graduation gift and promptly thrown into a shoe box.

Where are the shoes??

[StevenP]

y-IemeM-Ado

watch all 4 series on the history of money it's pretty good.

[sellersm]

And more on the long view of gold, from Andrew Maguire: http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/10/18_Maguire_Predicted_Gold_Surge_-_Now_Says_West_Is_Collapsing.html


On the heels of an explosive mid-week surge in the price of gold and continued weakness in the US dollar, today the man who predicted the massive spike mid-week spike in gold ahead of time warned King World News the West is now collapsing. London metals trader Andrew Maguire also spoke with KWN about what people should expect to see next in the gold market. Below is what Maguire had to say in this tremendous and timely interview.

Eric King: “Andrew, you made a fantastic call at the end of last week. You said that gold absolutely could not stay below $1,300 for more than a few days. We saw the bears holding the price below that key level Monday through Wednesday, but they capitulated on Thursday as gold soared solidly back above the $1,300 price level.”

Maguire: “Eric, last week we talked about the Fed being cornered. The reason we saw the price of gold being held below $1,300 is because the Fed was literally being forced to react to the price rise of gold against the US dollar. This had to do with the government shutdown, and it was forcing their hand -- to give the appearance of stability as the dollar was declining and under tremendous pressure.

So, the Fed moved in to short gold and buy the dollar in the FX markets. Now, the reason I told you we wouldn’t be able to hold below sub-$1,300 for more than 3 days is because of ‘spot market indexing.’ While these synthetic paper markets for gold are putting pressure on the price of gold, the underlying physical market is on fire....

“Lat Friday as we were headed into the lows I reported a major sovereign ‘spot purchase’ to KWN. Remember, we said it was about 90 tons being accumulated, some of it at $1,270. You and I were literally speaking on the phone as gold was making the lows. But that sovereign order had been patiently waiting for weeks and it finally filled.

These trades fly under the radar sometimes because they are initially just a foreign exchange trade, and it’s just part of a major paper gold shuffle in London every day. But it’s only when these paper gold buyers have the audacity to turn up at a PM fix in London and demand the physical gold that alarm bells are triggered.

The bullion banks are then forced to buy at market to fill these orders, and there is no bullion bank I know that can turn up that kind of supply overnight. That’s why we saw 1 - 3 month GOFO rates spike negative once again mid-week. As these orders stood for delivery as it actually forced gold into backwardation again. And it’s going to happen each and every time the gold price is now pushed lower.

So, this is an underpinning that paper traders simply don’t understand. We are actually talking about the cash value of gold vs futures being at a premium. China is going to continue to milk this discount window. They are continuing to exchange dollar reserves for gold, without directly disrupting Treasury and gold prices. But we are now very, very close to the point where China is the gold market.

The Chinese, through Shanghai, have already absorbed the bulk of all global mine production, if not all of it in its entirety. In July alone, Shanghai gold imports exceeded all of the imports for 2012. We also know that official Shanghai gold deliveries have accelerated since that time.

Last week I reported the September numbers to you and it was over 225 tons of gold being delivered. But as of today, for the 9 delivery days of October, we already have over 101 tons of gold delivered. This is an incredibly powerful and diverse underpinning for the price of gold.

Al of this is being reflected by the premiums, recorded deliveries, and what is paid daily above synthetically diluted gold prices. The Chinese don’t care what Goldman Sachs or any other brokerage shills says about gold. They are focusing on building their savings, real wealth, according to age-old ideas, and with a state-sanctioned 20% savings rate invested in gold.”

Maguire added: “All of this paper manipulation has just been a short-term desperation move on the part of the West. Obviously we’ve seen interventions in the foreign exchange gold market, which is complimented by activity on the Comex. And basically what is being done by the Fed is a defense of the US dollar.

It simply results in physical gold flowing out from West to East at an enormous rate. Unfortunately, that is the self-destructive move that continues to take place as the West destroys itself. And when you look at China, who thinks in 500-year or 1,000-year tim e frames vs the West which thinks in one-week and one-day time frames, crisis-to-crisis terms, no wonder the West is collapsing.”

[davsel]

From: http://ca.news.yahoo.com/u-averts-default-japan-china-brace-next-dollar-081452483--business.html

And analysts say China, whose Communist leaders are due to hold a key policy meeting next month, may step up a push for global acceptance of its currency, the yuan or renminbi, as an alternative to the U.S. dollar in international trade.

"They might actually consider accelerating the process," said Vincent Chan, head of equity research at Credit Suisse in Hong Kong. "You strengthen the case of making the renminbi a genuine international currency, because the Americans are unreliable."

[sellersm]

Interesting view on the impending 'bank runs', & some history on Marriner Eccles & The Fed Reserve: http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/5171/run-bank


A Run on the Bank

By Pining 4 the Fjords | Monday, October 21, 2013 at 9:26 am
I have a confession to make: there is something that most people consider an American classic that, every time I see it, sets my teeth on edge. Where others find heartwarming inspiration, a mere glimpse of it provokes an intense dislike on my part that I freely admit probably borders on the irrational. So here is my confession: I truly loath the classic holiday movie It’s A Wonderful Life.

What? But Pining, don’t you know that It's a Wonderful Life is one of the most critically acclaimed films ever made? Don’t you care that it was nominated for five Oscars and has been recognized by the American Film Institute as one of the best American films of all time, placing number 11 on its initial 1998 greatest movie list? Don’t you care that the film ranks number one on the Film Institutes’ list of the most inspirational American films of all time?

Sorry, but no. I don’t care about any of these things. I view this film as the single greatest piece of propaganda for fractional reserve bank fraud ever created. It irritates me that this sappy, gauzy schlock has become the mental touchstone for generations of people whenever they think about banking or the concept of a bank run. Most of all, I deeply resent the cultural 'cover' that this film has provided for a predatory and largely parasitic industry through the fact that it has successfully implanted into the American consciousness the pernicious fiction that banks, at their core, are essentially “just all of us working together and supporting each other” by sharing and lending the value we earn. In explaining why his and other behemoth financial firms should be bailed out by taxpayers in the wake of their greed-fueled mortgage fraud and derivative implosion, Lloyd Blankfein could never have argued with a straight face “We are doing God’s work” without having the mental battle-space prepared for him well ahead of time by the generations of brainwashing done by It’s a Wonderful Life. What an interesting Christmas miracle it would have been if George Bailey had told the truth about the bankstering classes:

http://i1178.photobucket.com/albums/x380/timtruss11/GeorgeBailey_zpsc63edb14.jpg
So get that propagandistic “holiday classic” crapola out of your heads, because we are going to talk about bank runs.
Everyone knows that a bank run is when people start to question the solvency of a bank, and they all try to get their money out at once. Because the bank has loaned out more money than they have on hand in deposits, this means they cannot pay everyone(and usually cannot pay even 1 customer in 20) so when the public begins to question the solvency of the firm there is a “run” on the bank as depositors all rush in to try to get their money out before the bank goes belly-up.

This is more or less accurate, but I would point out one thing- what people are panicked about isn’t quite that they may lose their money. At the core of it all, what they are really terrified of is that they might lose the value they have stored in the bank, in the form of money. A carpenter in Loveland, Colorado in February of 1930 wasn’t sprinting off from his job site upon hearing a rumor to try and withdraw the $293 he had on deposit with the local Savings and Loan because he was worried about the actual dollars. What he was terrified of losing was the thousands of hours of his labor, all of his diligent scrimping and saving, and the (to him) precious value of his earned productivity that those 293 dollars represented. He stored his hard-earned value in dollars, then stored those dollars in a bank… and that underlying value those dollars represented was what he was so panicked to preserve.

Much like our carpenter and his worries about his local bank, at this moment in time China has 1.2 trillion dollars of stored value, on-deposit with “The Bank of the Dollar” in the form of Treasury bonds. Japan also 1.1 trillion of their hard-earned wealth on deposit in the same bank. The rest of the world has an additional 3.3 trillion combined on deposit with “The Bank of the Dollar”, as the total US Treasury debt outstanding that is held by foreign entities is a whopping 5.6 trillion dollars.

http://macromon.files.wordpress.com/2013/01/jan30_treasury_3.jpg?w=900
I hate to break the news to you, but there is a run on this bank going on right now. Oh, it's still quiet and there is nothing approaching panic just yet, but make no mistake- these countries are just as worried as our fictional carpenter about getting their stored value out of that bank before everyone else tries to do the same thing. You see, the board of directors of the “Bank of the Dollar” (already on thin-ice amongst their depositors for repeatedly issuing themselves I.O.U. withdrawals and spending them at an alarming rate) just raised the “debt-ceiling” level for this practice that they had set in place to reassure their depositors. In fact, since 1960 they have raised, extended, or changed the definition of this limit 79 times, understandably calling into question their very comprehension of the word “limit”. Not only that, but they now appear to have just done away with the concept entirely, recently granting the CEO permission to withdraw literally un-limited amounts, in perpetuity.

The first sign of an incipient run on the “Bank of the Dollar” is that the major customers are no longer depositing their hard-earned value in this bank. They have ceased making the normal deposits that buying Treasuries represents, which tells us that they are already nervous, and are unwilling to put more of their hard-earned value at risk in this bank:

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2013/08/Mystery%20Buyer%20X.jpg
Indeed, the quiet selling of this chart can be compared to the townsfolk stealthily making their way into the bank, attempting to appear nonchalant while they withdraw small amounts that will not draw attention and thus not panic the other customers. At some point, everyone will look around at everyone else, their eyes will narrow, and somebody will make a mad-dash for the teller's window and demand all their cash, instantly spooking everyone else into doing the same. The result will be, predictably, chaos.
At that point, woe be to him who still has his value stored at the Bank of the Dollar when the customers bolt and break for the tellers window. There will be no heartwarming ending when the townsfolk rally around poor George Bailey, saving him from his fractional reserve shenanigans and poor risk management.

There is one other thing I would like to mention about bank runs, and it provides a peculiar connection to the Federal Reserve. In the early 20th-century, there was a banker in Utah named Marriner Eccles. He was the son of a polygamist lumber magnate named David Eccles, who made his fortune illegally cutting timber on huge swaths of western Federal lands, then bribing local officials to produce the proper signatures and paperwork when questions arose. When this failed, he bribed Federal Judges to throw trials. Anyway, son Marriner used his inherited wealth to purchase numerous banks in Colorado and Utah, and in the aftermath of the great stock market crash of 1929, he built his reputation based on his methods of dealing with bank runs. When Marriner sniffed a run coming, he would arrange for large bundles of cash (in small denominations, so there were many bundles) to be delivered and he would deliberately truck this cash straight through the waiting crowd in the lobby just prior to the bank opening. Marriner would then stand in the lobby making a great show, grandly announcing that the bank had plentiful reserves of cash, and that anyone who wanted their money would get their money even if he had to keep the bank open late into the night. On the second day, he would do the same thing but would instruct his tellers to count out each customer’s cash as slowly as possible, dragging out each transaction and minimizing the number of customers who could withdraw their money. On the third day, he would arrange for “plants” to stand in the Deposit line, so that when customers entered the bank they would see people cued-up to deposit, not withdraw, cash.

Please note that each and every one of these techniques was a deliberate deception- a psychological ploy to fool people into thinking that the bank really did have all their money, which of course it did not. These tricks were nothing more than a ploy to hide the dismaying truth that the bank had lent out their money long ago, but the grand show would fool people into thinking that the carefully saved value of a lifetime of hard work was far less at-risk than it actually was. Marriner Eccles gained a national reputation during this time, and in a few years would be named Chairman of the Federal Reserve.

Today, the people who go to work at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York walk through the doors of the Marriner Eccles building, a grand structure named for a man whose reputation was built on tricking and deceiving people about the genuine risk of losing their hard-earned life savings... and the greater the risk, the more elaborate was his deception to hide it. Somehow fitting, don’t you think?

http://img.mit.edu/newsoffice/images/article_images/original/20100816144112-1.jpg
When the run on the “Bank of the Dollar” begins in earnest, I expect that the people in this building will fully live-up to its namesake’s legacy, and that no deception will be beyond the pale to protect the interests of their firm. Indeed, one could argue that, from interventions in the Treasury and currency markets to the suppression of precious metals prices, they are already heavily engaged in the practices that made Marriner Eccles reputation. I seriously doubt, however, that the Chinese or others will be fooled by their parlor tricks.

You shouldn’t be either.

Keep stacking.

[sellersm]

More on the 'stealing' from GLD & perhaps why the recent raise in price: http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/10/22_Here_Is_The_Shocking_Reason_Why_Gold_Is_Soaring _Today.html

[<MADDOG>]

My apologies for resurrecting a "dead" thread, but I feel this issue is worthy of discussion..

First, in case no one caught it during the 2012 CFR interview with one of the headmasters, Jamie Dimon of JP Morgan:

Interviewer: "What about the more fundamental thing? Imagine we get through the fiscal cliff less because we concoct an omnibus deal but rather because Congress finds a way to kick the proverbial can down the road. How worried are you at some point -- if the United States can't do something on the order of a Simpson-Bowles $4 trillion over a decade kind of comprehensive deal, how worried are you that one day you wake up and suddenly your BlackBerry or iPhone is red hot because the bond markets essentially move against the United States?"

Dimon: "It's virtually assured. I mean, it's assured. The question is when and how. And so you know, I can't honestly tell you I know -- this could be two years or five years -- but it will happen. It is a matter of time. You know, the United States can't borrow indefinitely, and you've seen it by -- if you don't believe me, look at, you know, over the hundred years, bankruptcies of country after country after country who just thought they could get away with it because of their reserve currency and the military power of the world. So the -- you know, again, it's a -- why would you take the choice let's wait and see?"

Full interview here, with many "slips": http://www.cfr.org/world/state-global-economy/p29251

Video Here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TU5P5ufZQdk&feature=share

Secondly, to add on to StevenP's vid (and yes I understand this created by a "for profit" company, but the facts are there:

iFDe5kUUyT0

[sellersm]

From http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/10/29_60-Year_Market_Veteran_-_People_Missed_Major_News_Today.html


Rosen: “Today the Wall Street Journal in all its glory performed the service of killing off the last of the weak gold bulls (see below).

https://col127.mail.live.com/Handlers/ImageProxy.mvc?bicild=&canary=mJemrInr0drn1rL6ChSAn4%2fjVrQ7oGeQSGIGF9%2b GJ4w%3d0&url=http%3a%2f%2fkingworldnews.com%2fkingworldnews %2fKWN_DailyWeb%2fEntries%2f2013%2f10%2f29_60-Year_Market_Veteran_-_People_Missed_Major_News_Today_files%2fKWN%20Rose n%20IV%2010%3a29%3a2013.jpg



Astonishingly, the headline and piece below is from the Wall Street Journal, dated today, October 29, 2013....



https://col127.mail.live.com/Handlers/ImageProxy.mvc?bicild=&canary=mJemrInr0drn1rL6ChSAn4%2fjVrQ7oGeQSGIGF9%2b GJ4w%3d0&url=http%3a%2f%2fkingworldnews.com%2fkingworldnews %2fKWN_DailyWeb%2fEntries%2f2013%2f10%2f29_60-Year_Market_Veteran_-_People_Missed_Major_News_Today_files%2fKWN%20Rose n%20V%2010%3a29%3a2013.jpg



I will come back to gold in just a minute, but first it is important to understand how the 1970s compares to today, and where we are headed. See the incredible similarity below between the 1970s stock market vs today.



https://col127.mail.live.com/Handlers/ImageProxy.mvc?bicild=&canary=mJemrInr0drn1rL6ChSAn4%2fjVrQ7oGeQSGIGF9%2b GJ4w%3d0&url=http%3a%2f%2fkingworldnews.com%2fkingworldnews %2fKWN_DailyWeb%2fEntries%2f2013%2f10%2f29_60-Year_Market_Veteran_-_People_Missed_Major_News_Today_files%2fKWN%20Rose n%20I%2010%3a29%3a2013.jpg



https://col127.mail.live.com/Handlers/ImageProxy.mvc?bicild=&canary=mJemrInr0drn1rL6ChSAn4%2fjVrQ7oGeQSGIGF9%2b GJ4w%3d0&url=http%3a%2f%2fkingworldnews.com%2fkingworldnews %2fKWN_DailyWeb%2fEntries%2f2013%2f10%2f29_60-Year_Market_Veteran_-_People_Missed_Major_News_Today_files%2fKWN%20Rose n%20VI%2010%3a29%3a2013.jpg




The question many KWN readers will ask is, what does this stock plunge mean for gold? Well, the answer will surprise many readers around the world....



“The chart below shows the explosion in the price of gold as stocks sank during the brutal bear market in stocks in the 1973/1974 time frame. Gold soared from $35 to a peak of $204. That’s nearly a six-times increase in the price of gold in a very short period of time (see chart below).




https://col127.mail.live.com/Handlers/ImageProxy.mvc?bicild=&canary=mJemrInr0drn1rL6ChSAn4%2fjVrQ7oGeQSGIGF9%2b GJ4w%3d0&url=http%3a%2f%2fkingworldnews.com%2fkingworldnews %2fKWN_DailyWeb%2fEntries%2f2013%2f10%2f29_60-Year_Market_Veteran_-_People_Missed_Major_News_Today_files%2fKWN%20Rose n%20III%2010%3a29%3a2013.jpg

[roberth]

My apologies for resurrecting a "dead" thread, but I feel this issue is worthy of discussion..

This is not a dead thread, it just falls back and then we want to share something new so to the top it goes. :)

[roberth]

I checked junk silver prices at the show, $16.75 to $19.00 for $1 face. I called a couple of shops today and they are at $18 for $1 face, except 1 at $20 for $1 face.

ASEs at the show were going for $25 per coin. I didn't ask any of the shops today about their ASEs though.

[lex137]

I buy from Rocky Mt. Coin. Reputable dealer. It is more than junk silver, but I like to buy 10 oz bars.

[roberth]

I like RMC too, going to try L&L since I'll be in that part of town this afternoon.

[BushMasterBoy]

I paid $15.55 for an ounce round last week on eBay. Sometimes I get really lucky on there.

[lex137]

I can't tell the difference between real or fake silver, so buying from online or eBay is out of the question for me.

[Dave_L]

How do you tell the difference? Just the weight? Finish? If it's online, do they give a guarantee?

[hghclsswhitetrsh]

I bought a roll of eagles at the gun show last week for $500. Not too shabby. The vendor was 'the silver guy'.

[rondog]

I buy from Rocky Mt. Coin. Reputable dealer. It is more than junk silver, but I like to buy 10 oz bars.
I've always preferred Dave's a couple doors down. Can't remember why, but I just don't like RMC much. Too impersonal, I think it was. Kinda like a Harley dealership vs. an independent shop.

[lex137]

I go to the one in Greenwood Village. I like them over there always the same 2-3 people every time I go. They helped me out when I needed silver coins for my wedding.

[roberth]

Silver is approaching the $20 mark; Gold is approaching $1250. DOW is up over 16,000, S&P is at 1800. Oil is down under $94, USD is at 80.69 right now, down a little.


I bought a roll of eagles at the gun show last week for $500. Not too shabby. The vendor was 'the silver guy'.

Chad and his family are good guys, I like doing business with them.

[Sawin]

I expect this trend to continue at least through the holidays at this point...I'm going to watch from the sidelines for the moment and pick up some more bullion in January, unless there's a huge price drop before then.

[lex137]

Yea I'm gonna to do this too ^^^^. Unless it drops down to $18 or so. I'm hoping it goes up to $50 an ounce again without the economy crashing.

[roberth]

Nowadays Americans are very short-term thinkers. The stock market is booming so they put their money where it can make the most the fastest without regard for longevity.

Metals are a long term thing, that is part of the reason metals have lost their attractiveness to the general public.

[muddywings]

questions from a very soon first time buyer of physical silver-
where do you keep your silver and can I count it....hehehehe.

really though, I just looked at my home owner's policy and it only covers $200 in PM. Do you all keep you silver at home or safe deposit box at a bank? I figure some of my guns might have to share some real-estate with some silver coins but they don't mind. However, I'm pretty paranoid about theft or fire and I only expect my safe to keep out a novice thief or minor fire. (I guess with Waldo Canyon and Black Forest fires the past two years really makes you think how easy it is to loose everything). Case in point, I run a time machine on my macbook constantly, I run a time machine backup once a month then put the hard drive in a fire proof sentry safe which is in my fireproof gun safe. Then once every six months, I do an additional backup to a third hard drive and leave that one at my mom's house, so yes very paranoid!

Second question-
Do you have a ratio split with different size silver coins such as 1/2 oz, 1 oz and greater? Any good reason to do that? Any bad reasons why one shouldn't do that?

Thanks

[muddywings]

found this: http://www.gainesvillecoins.com/products/165698/10-oz-silver-bullet-50-bmg-design-999-pure.aspx

thought it was pretty funny. I wouldn't buy it myself but if you really really like .50BMG it might be up your alley!

[davsel]

If you're stacking for SHTF, just buy "cull" quality pre 1965 US coins.
No one is going to give you collector value markup once the economy collapses.
Mix between dimes, quarters, and dollars should cover any bartering you may need them for.
APMEX sells them by the bag.

[lex137]

questions from a very soon first time buyer of physical silver-
where do you keep your silver and can I count it....hehehehe.

really though, I just looked at my home owner's policy and it only covers $200 in PM. Do you all keep you silver at home or safe deposit box at a bank? I figure some of my guns might have to share some real-estate with some silver coins but they don't mind. However, I'm pretty paranoid about theft or fire and I only expect my safe to keep out a novice thief or minor fire. (I guess with Waldo Canyon and Black Forest fires the past two years really makes you think how easy it is to loose everything). Case in point, I run a time machine on my macbook constantly, I run a time machine backup once a month then put the hard drive in a fire proof sentry safe which is in my fireproof gun safe. Then once every six months, I do an additional backup to a third hard drive and leave that one at my mom's house, so yes very paranoid!

Second question-
Do you have a ratio split with different size silver coins such as 1/2 oz, 1 oz and greater? Any good reason to do that? Any bad reasons why one shouldn't do that?

Thanks

I would keep it at home, it only belongs to you if you have possession of it. Plus I heard horror stories of banks going into people's safe deposit box when there home went in foreclosure and what not. So I don't trust them. Might be a good time to invest in a high quality safe like American security/ Fort Knox/ brown safes?? I buy for more of long term investment and buy 1oz and 10oz bars. I'm new as well so I only go to well known dealers. You are going to have to pay a premium, for instance if silver is at $20 an oz for one oz I have to pay an addition $3-3.50 don't remember and $2.50 for every oz on 10 oz bars. Premium goes down the more weight you buy. A good place/person should be willing to explain it to you and sell you something that will best suit what you are looking for. I'm no expert so I would just make sure your comfortable before you buy. Seen a guy bring in silver dollars and was told they were fakes and store passed on buying them, there was silver in them they said but could not determine how much. Good luck!

[Sawin]

If you're stacking for SHTF, just buy "cull" quality pre 1965 US coins.
No one is going to give you collector value markup once the economy collapses.
Mix between dimes, quarters, and dollars should cover any bartering you may need them for.
APMEX sells them by the bag.

I agree this is a good way to enter the PM arena and pay the lowest premiums, but building on your premise that in SHTF scenarios collector values are moot, I do not put as much faith in the SHTF value of pre-'65 US coins despite their silver content. The face value is still only "One Quarter Dollar", etc and the silver content is not marked on them at all, so the general public will be ignorant of their value....IMHO, I'd recommend generic rounds and ingots that have clearly printed on them "1 Troy OZ .999 fine silver" or something similar.

If available and priced acceptably, why not get an assortment of 1/10 oz, 1/4, 1/2, 1, 5, & 10oz...? There is no "recommended" ratio, just whatever you think is a good split....

[muddywings]

I agree this is a good way to enter the PM arena and pay the lowest premiums, but building on your premise that in SHTF scenarios collector values are moot, I do not put as much faith in the SHTF value of pre-'65 US coins despite their silver content. The face value is still only "One Quarter Dollar", etc and the silver content is not marked on them at all, so the general public will be ignorant of their value....IMHO, I'd recommend generic rounds and ingots that have clearly printed on them "1 Troy OZ .999 fine silver" or something similar.

If available and priced acceptably, why not get an assortment of 1/10 oz, 1/4, 1/2, 1, 5, & 10oz...? There is no "recommended" ratio, just whatever you think is a good split....

are these: http://www.gainesvillecoins.com/products/163413/1/10-oz-silver-round-walking-liberty-design-999-pure.aspx just super small coins?

ETA: I'm not set on this vendor, just surfing for ideas. Also my insurance guy just got back to me. Insurance fo $2200 worth of coins will cost $32/year :( more than i hoped for but on par for what I'm paying for my wife's wedding rings

[davsel]

I agree this is a good way to enter the PM arena and pay the lowest premiums, but building on your premise that in SHTF scenarios collector values are moot, I do not put as much faith in the SHTF value of pre-'65 US coins despite their silver content. The face value is still only "One Quarter Dollar", etc and the silver content is not marked on them at all, so the general public will be ignorant of their value....IMHO, I'd recommend generic rounds and ingots that have clearly printed on them "1 Troy OZ .999 fine silver" or something similar.

If available and priced acceptably, why not get an assortment of 1/10 oz, 1/4, 1/2, 1, 5, & 10oz...? There is no "recommended" ratio, just whatever you think is a good split....

Just because it is marked "1 Troy OZ .999 fine silver" does not necessarily make it so.
I am willing to bet there are far more counterfeit silver rounds and bars in circulation than Morgan or Peace dollars.
I'm not saying you can not buy the real thing from a reputable dealer. I'm saying that I would trust the silver content of a US Silver Dollar over what is stamped on a shiny bar from a stranger (EBay).
Same reason I stick with Krugerrands. They have been around for a long time and are easily recognizable.

[Sawin]

Just because it is marked "1 Troy OZ .999 fine silver" does not necessarily make it so.
I am willing to bet there are far more counterfeit silver rounds and bars in circulation than Morgan or Peace dollars.
I'm not saying you can not buy the real thing from a reputable dealer. I'm saying that I would trust the silver content of a US Silver Dollar over what is stamped on a shiny bar from a stranger (EBay).
Same reason I stick with Krugerrands. They have been around for a long time and are easily recognizable.

Oh, I get that 100%. I will NEVER buy "silver" on ebay, craigslist, etc.... I buy it from reputable sources only. I just want to remind you that in a SHTF scenario, especially one of economic collapse where bullion comes in to the limelight, that would imply the US dollar is worthless.... or more near so than presently....and the silver content of those US coins is not well known enough in my opinion. Also, with respect to any tender used for barter/sales, etc, having the value/weight visibly marked permanently on that tender makes it worlds easier.

[sellersm]

are these: http://www.gainesvillecoins.com/products/163413/1/10-oz-silver-round-walking-liberty-design-999-pure.aspx just super small coins?

ETA: I'm not set on this vendor, just surfing for ideas. Also my insurance guy just got back to me. Insurance fo $2200 worth of coins will cost $32/year :( more than i hoped for but on par for what I'm paying for my wife's wedding rings

Yes, those are what are called "fractionals", weight that's less than 1oz. Those are 1/10oz. silver. The fractionals are easier to purchase, but will have a higher premium, but may be easier to trade/use because of their smaller weight.

[muddywings]

Yes, those are what are called "fractionals", weight that's less than 1oz. Those are 1/10oz. silver. The fractionals are easier to purchase, but will have a higher premium, but may be easier to trade/use because of their smaller weight.

thanks. not super concerned about the premium difference. Yeah, i'm loosing some money but it seems like it would be nice to have some smaller denominations....just to have....just sayin...

come on guys...not going to answer my other question? where you hiding/hording your stuff....and can I see it ;)

[lex137]

I'm not going to blast where I keep mine. I will tell you that it's not in the bank!!

[HoneyBadger]

Muddywings, you may want to look into insurance for specific valuables. I have "valuables" insurance through USAA to cover things like Mrs. HoneyBadger's jewelry and some other especially valuable items around the house.

Otherwise, OPSEC is key. Bury it in your backyard or build it into a wall behind the drywall if you want, just don't ever tell anyone about it and don't forget to dig it out before you move... :D

[hatidua]

Oh, I get that 100%. I will NEVER buy "silver" on ebay

How is buying from APMEX, MCM, or any of the other big sellers on eBay different from buying from them directly?

[muddywings]

Muddywings, you may want to look into insurance for specific valuables. I have "valuables" insurance through USAA to cover things like Mrs. HoneyBadger's jewelry and some other especially valuable items around the house.


off topic rant but I dropped usaa for geico for auto insurance and saved $600/year. I then asked about my subscribers savings account status and was advised since I still had my personal article floater (jewelry) with them it would continue to accumulate. So i moved my jewelry over to my home insurance (AMFAM) and dropped the policy with USAA. Now they said they can't pay out my SSA for six months but when they do, I have $2500 coming to me.

[whitbaby]

I'm pretty paranoid about theft or fire and I only expect my safe to keep out a novice thief or minor fire.
Thanks


I've heard fire inspectors say that fires burn UP and FALL DOWN. So the basement is the best place to keep a safe...whenever you can uncover it.

[roberth]

How is buying from APMEX, MCM, or any of the other big sellers on eBay different from buying from them directly?

I buy on Ebay from REPUTABLE dealers that have conducted 10s of thousands of positive transactions. I like local better but it costs a couple bucks more.

[Sawin]

How is buying from APMEX, MCM, or any of the other big sellers on eBay different from buying from them directly?
If you are buying from APMEX or MCM via ebay, that's ok. I was saying I would never buy silver from a random Joe on eBay of Craigslist, etc. I just require the seller to be a reputable one.

[HoneyBadger]

I've heard fire inspectors say that fires burn UP and FALL DOWN. So the basement is the best place to keep a safe...whenever you can uncover it.
In my experience helping clean up after the Black Forest fire, the worst place for a safe was in the basement because after the house caught fire, it would collapse into the basement and then continue to burn at hundreds, even thousands, of degrees for hours or even days. The best place for a safe was in the garage or near an outside wall away from the basement if possible. Now if your home catches fire and the fire department comes and puts it out, even after a few hours of intense heat, the contents of your safe may be okay. It is the prolonged heat and the unusual circumstance of an event like a wildfire that will destroy everything.

[hatidua]

In my experience helping clean up after the Black Forest fire

I looked at a lot of photos of the Black Forest fire, both aerial and ground level and I don't recall seeing a single gun safe. In light of the many homes that burned, I have to assume that at least a few of those homes formerly had a safe, and some of those were likely "fire proof".

[<MADDOG>]

I've heard fire inspectors say that fires burn UP and FALL DOWN. So the basement is the best place to keep a safe...whenever you can uncover it.

If they get their fast enough; and if your home is constructed of composite joists (TJI's), the odds are not in your favor.

[HoneyBadger]

I looked at a lot of photos of the Black Forest fire, both aerial and ground level and I don't recall seeing a single gun safe. In light of the many homes that burned, I have to assume that at least a few of those homes formerly had a safe, and some of those were likely "fire proof".
I saw only one gun safe in my 2 weeks of helping clean up. I think it started out about the size of a liberty fatboy, but when we found it, it was a 1.5ft tall blob of metal that had completely melted. We had to borrow a neighbor's bobcat to dig it out and lift it. The owner just had us throw it straight in the dumpster with the bobcat. Owner recalled that it had a "2 hour" fire rating. The ash and debris filling the foundation of his house was still hot in some spots 3 days after he was allowed back in.

Anyway, back to metals of the precious variety...

[<MADDOG>]

I saw only one gun safe in my 2 weeks of helping clean up. I think it started out about the size of a liberty fatboy, but when we found it, it was a 1.5ft tall blob of metal that had completely melted. We had to borrow a neighbor's bobcat to dig it out and lift it. The owner just had us throw it straight in the dumpster with the bobcat. Owner recalled that it had a "2 hour" fire rating. The ash and debris filling the foundation of his house was still hot in some spots 3 days after he was allowed back in.

Anyway, back to metals of the precious variety...

+1

If you are in a wildfire area, or the FD doesn't show up in time, the result is your goods are phucked in case of fire...

http://i34.photobucket.com/albums/d108/pperron/rtx10mxo_zpsc4d6df4f.jpg (http://s34.photobucket.com/user/pperron/media/rtx10mxo_zpsc4d6df4f.jpg.html)

[davsel]

Is that a satellite dish in the lower right?
I want a safe lined with that!

bury PMs under large rocks - protected from forest fires.

[<MADDOG>]

Is that a satellite dish in the lower right?
I want a safe lined with that!

bury PMs under large rocks - protected from forest fires.

[LOL] You're right, damn satellite TV will outlive cockroaches... I didn't even see that!

[Great-Kazoo]

Is that a satellite dish in the lower right?
I want a safe lined with that!

bury PMs under large rocks - protected from forest fires.

Large rocks will crack and or explode under intense heat. The igneous and magnanimous will fair better than others, however they all shit the bed under that level of heat.

[Sawin]

Safe Perhaps?
36723

It looks to be in the garage area, and against a now-absent wall, so it's possible. I doubt a fridge/freezer would still have any kind of recognizable form, but that looks at least a little bit like a safe to me. It also looks about the right size relative to the crispy car in the driveway....

[Sawin]

Yea I'm gonna to do this too ^^^^. Unless it drops down to $18 or so. I'm hoping it goes up to $50 an ounce again without the economy crashing.

At this rate, we might actually see $18 soon... If so, I will begin buying a few oz again in increasing quantities especially if the price continues to drop through the new year. Some fringe rumors say it could hit $9 next year... who knows.

[MrPrena]

I am not a precious metal nor commodities expert.
Just looking at the macro perspective, Precious metal should have gone up due to no taper and increase in MS.

However, if you look at the TA, precious metal is testing lots of new support.
It was overbought since 2011.

[sellersm]

It's being squashed, on purpose. Give it time. It'll be the only game in town within a year or two...

[davsel]

^^^ This
The gamblers are making money hand over fist in the market due to QE pumping. They plan to cash out just before the crash. A few will (bankers), most will not.
Once the QE stops, physical PMs will rise exponentially.

[sellersm]

According to Stephen Leeb, this is just a propaganda campaign & smashing the gold price today lends credence to the Fed's claims that "all is well"...


“We have been seeing that China’s intake of gold is considerably greater than that what is being reported. All that is reported is the gold they get through Hong Kong. That has already reached 850 tons this year. So China will take in well over 1,000 tons of gold this year, and possibly as high as 1,100 tons of gold through Hong Kong.

But the Chinese are taking gold in from other sources as well, and no one really knows the extent of it. This does not include central bank buying. So how many years is China going to be taking in 1,500 or more tons of gold before they say to themselves, ‘This is a lot of gold we have and the dollar is a pretty lousy currency.’



Why would China want dollars when there is no guarantee the US will be able to keep the government open past mid-January. China also runs the risk of a US default or something catastrophic when they hold dollars. So when you see the price of gold drop on propaganda from the Fed, when we know that China’s purchases of gold have been greatly accelerated, it’s time to buy.



We know that Obamacare is literally blowing up. There are stories all over the media that your data isn’t safe if you go to Obamacare. Also, states that have been successful at it, like Massachusetts, are paying through the nose. To me this is not a recipe for falling gold prices and a stronger dollar.



Remember, the Fed is already buying over $1 trillion a year. So if they move to buying $700 billion a year, who cares? That’s still an extraordinary amount of money printing. They are still monetizing the debt. This is unsustainable.



But the Fed comes out with this Joseph Goebbels style propaganda today, and in order to make it look credible they smash the price of gold. You know, Eric, 6 years or 7 years ago I didn’t believe in conspiracies. But when you have the rigging of the LIBOR market, as well as so many other markets staring you in the face, it’s becoming obvious that something is wrong with the gold market.



It’s obvious that the US dollar is losing its supremacy. Various countries no longer want to trade in dollars. What do they turn to, Europe? That’s where you have right wing forces taking over even in places like France. Europe is a mess. It’s a question of when, not if that continent explodes?



This means that major countries such as China have to turn to gold. That’s why the Chinese are accumulating gold at an all-time record pace. It’s also looking increasingly obvious that the West is in some kind of agreement with China to sell them cheap gold. There is no other way to explain the price action.



Regardless, all this type of manipulation and dishoarding of gold from the West to the East does is hasten the day in which China, Russia, and Germany are going to introduce another reserve currency to the world. And the yuan is going to have a prominent role there.



This is why the Chinese are buying up all of the available gold for sale in the world. They are literally in a race to accumulate gold. You can see it in the data. Yet the Western based Ponzi scheme paper markets in gold take the price lower. Yes, there is something strange going on here but I can promise you it’s unsustainable. The Chinese will revalue gold when they are ready and that day is coming.



Then it will be goodbye dollar and hello gold. And when I say, ‘hello gold,’ I’m not talking about a run to the old highs. I’m talking about gold many thousands of dollars higher than current levels, and quite possibly over $10,000 an ounce. There is just no way around this outcome, but until that day comes, the West will desperately cling to Fed propaganda and paper gold price suppression until it blows up in their faces.”

[roberth]

It's being squashed, on purpose. Give it time. It'll be the only game in town within a year or two...

This...and the DOW, NASDAQ, S&P are all reaching new highs weekly/monthly. People are looking for short term, high gain investment opportunities and the QE plays right into that short-term thinking.

PMs are a long term inflation fighter, not for day traders.

[Great-Kazoo]

This...and the DOW, NASDAQ, S&P are all reaching new highs weekly/monthly. People are looking for short term, high gain investment opportunities and the QE plays right into that short-term thinking.

PMs are a long term inflation fighter, not for day traders.

The highs reached, are sustained for less than 1 day, hours even. I don't care if the market crest@ 16:: what ever. It doesn't reflect at the pump, grocery store, wages etc. it's a false number like ACA.

[sellersm]

The highs reached, are sustained for less than 1 day, hours even. I don't care if the market crest@ 16:: what ever. It doesn't reflect at the pump, grocery store, wages etc. it's a false number like ACA.

^This. It only benefits the "haves".


Sent from my fat fingers using Tapatalk (http://tapatalk.com/m?id=1)

[roberth]

The highs reached, are sustained for less than 1 day, hours even. I don't care if the market crest@ 16:: what ever. It doesn't reflect at the pump, grocery store, wages etc. it's a false number like ACA.

Yup...and the highs only benefit Wall Street. Main Street's great, great grandchildren are getting stuck with the bills. It is all fiat, no reflection at all on reality, not based on anything either except for the ability to move $$ from the public's pocket to the bankers and government.

[sellersm]

And who can't wait for the beginning of "bail-ins" here? More transfers of wealth...

[MrPrena]

^This. It only benefits the "haves".


Sent from my fat fingers using Tapatalk (http://tapatalk.com/m?id=1)


Sadly, I am "HAVE NOT" and I am so tired of speculating the market activities SR and LR.

[HoneyBadger]

According to Stephen Leeb, this is just a propaganda campaign & smashing the gold price today lends credence to the Fed's claims that "all is well"...
Do you think this applies equally to all precious metals?

Im thinking that it might apply even more to silver since the silver to gold ratio is historically low. Does that make sense or am I showing my lack of knowledge on PMs?

[sellersm]

Do you think this applies equally to all precious metals?

Im thinking that it might apply even more to silver since the silver to gold ratio is historically low. Does that make sense or am I showing my lack of knowledge on PMs?

I think it does apply to gold and silver. There are many that believe the breakout for silver will be even higher than for gold. I think the big emphasis on gold is that it's the traditional 'competitor' to a currency. Speaking of currency, that's one of the best ways to look at PMs, as a currency as opposed to an investment.

China's buying thousands of tons of gold. Not sure how much it's buying of silver...

[lex137]

Silver below $20 and oz. I wonder how far it will go down?

[hghclsswhitetrsh]

Silver below $20 and oz. I wonder how far it will go down?

Thats the million dollar question. The two million question is how high it will go in our lifetime.

[Sawin]

I am literally just waiting until the FED starts to taper the QE bond buying BS, which I expect will falsely make the USD go up, therefore PM's will drop.... As soon as they make the announcement, watch PM spot prices and be prepared to buy.... at least that's my strategy for the next month or two. Anyone agree/disagree?

[sellersm]

My guess is that it won't go down much further, perhaps it will hit in the $18's, but not stay there for long.

Today, China announced that it wants to start doing oil deals in NON-USD currency. And other announcements are going on right now... Why isn't the PM market responding? Yep, that's right, to keep the USD afloat and perpetuate the charade that 'all is well' on Wall Street...

Remember, buy LOW and sell HIGH! [Coffee]

[sellersm]

I am literally just waiting until the FED starts to taper the QE bond buying BS, which I expect will falsely make the USD go up, therefore PM's will drop.... As soon as they make the announcement, watch PM spot prices and be prepared to buy.... at least that's my strategy for the next month or two. Anyone agree/disagree?

You did hear what Yellen has said, right? There'll be no limit to the QE. Just as there's no limit to the debt ceiling right now. They'll continue to suppress the PM prices, allow China to continue to hoard it all, and then when all the 'fat cats' have had enough, they'll let it come crashing down.

It's my belief that they already have a new world currency, it's all agreed upon, they're just waiting for the right time to introduce it to the world...

[Dave_L]

I hope they wait a while longer so I can buy some more PM's. :(

[Sawin]

My guess is that it won't go down much further, perhaps it will hit in the $18's, but not stay there for long.

Today, China announced that it wants to start doing oil deals in NON-USD currency. And other announcements are going on right now... Why isn't the PM market responding? Yep, that's right, to keep the USD afloat and perpetuate the charade that 'all is well' on Wall Street...

Remember, buy LOW and sell HIGH! [Coffee]

Is that China news actually new from today? I recall hearing something about that at least a few weeks ago, and very strangely it didn't get much press and the markets didn't pay much attention... BS anyone? I agree the suppression of PM's is 100% real and we should all be taking advantage of it, but I'm just not convinced this is the bottom yet. I am hoping for it to dip in to the low teens, but I could be wrong.

[Sawin]

You did hear what Yellen has said, right? There'll be no limit to the QE. Just as there's no limit to the debt ceiling right now. They'll continue to suppress the PM prices, allow China to continue to hoard it all, and then when all the 'fat cats' have had enough, they'll let it come crashing down.

It's my belief that they already have a new world currency, it's all agreed upon, they're just waiting for the right time to introduce it to the world...

Yes, I know there is no "limit" per say, but I believe that is only being stated so the "end" of QE (yeah effing right!) isn't predictable and the prospect of tapering is not priced in ahead of time... There is still a lot of discussion of slowing monthly bond buying, but who knows if it'll ever happen? It seems to me that if it does, the prices of PM's should go down more, albeit temporarily, at which point I'm going to buy a lot of it. There really have been some claims it will be in single digits... who do I believe? Everyone and no one at the same time I guess.

[Sawin]

I hope they wait a while longer so I can buy some more PM's. :(

Me too.

[sellersm]

Is that China news actually new from today? I recall hearing something about that at least a few weeks ago, and very strangely it didn't get much press and the markets didn't pay much attention... BS anyone? I agree the suppression of PM's is 100% real and we should all be taking advantage of it, but I'm just not convinced this is the bottom yet. I am hoping for it to dip in to the low teens, but I could be wrong.

Well, perhaps it was yesterday. The feed I saw was dated today, but the source was yesterday's article:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-20/pboc-says-no-longer-in-china-s-favor-to-boost-record-reserves.html

This one's today:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/11/21/china-crudeoil-idUSL4N0J62M120131121

[sellersm]

Take a look at this: http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/11/21_War_In_Gold_Intensifies_As_Massive_Battle_Rages _In_London.html

And here's a quote from another of King's articles:

“And in the period into 2008, when the dollar was going down, that was most evident in the upward move of gold against the dollar. But what most people seem to forget is that gold was going up against all of the other paper currencies then as well.

So our view is that while the dollar may shift in its pecking order within the paper currency world, and outperform a lot of the other majors and possibly a lot of the emerging market currencies, we still believe that over the coming years we are going to see gold outperform paper and outperform the dollar.



We just believe that gold will outperform the euro, the yen, and other currencies more. The trouble right now is not so much to the dollar trade because at the end of the day the dollar is higher than it was on the US Dollar Index in 2009, but so is gold.



The issue for gold is that if you look back to after the first impulsive move higher in gold in the early 1970s, when we got the correction into 1976, when gold came off 44% before going significantly higher, gold struggled to rally as the equity market made its recovery after the 1973/1974 crash. So while gold is just consolidating at the moment, we still believe that it’s formed a base here around this $1,180 level, but its ability to move significantly higher is compromised as long as the equity market continues to do well.



At a point in time where the equity market finally does struggle, and it will happen, that is going to be the point where gold will really start to come into its own once again. But as we saw into 1976, when the equity market was performing well, it’s going to be very difficult while this is happening in equities to see a significant push up in the gold price.”

[hatidua]

“And in the period into 2008, when the dollar was going down, that was most evident in the upward move of gold against the dollar. But what most people seem to forget is that gold was going up against all of the other paper currencies then as well.
So our view is that while the dollar may shift in its pecking order within the paper currency world, and outperform a lot of the other majors and possibly a lot of the emerging market currencies, we still believe that over the coming years we are going to see gold outperform paper and outperform the dollar.


We just believe that gold will outperform the euro, the yen, and other currencies more. The trouble right now is not so much to the dollar trade because at the end of the day the dollar is higher than it was on the US Dollar Index in 2009, but so is gold.


The issue for gold is that if you look back to after the first impulsive move higher in gold in the early 1970s, when we got the correction into 1976, when gold came off 44% before going significantly higher, gold struggled to rally as the equity market made its recovery after the 1973/1974 crash. So while gold is just consolidating at the moment, we still believe that it’s formed a base here around this $1,180 level, but its ability to move significantly higher is compromised as long as the equity market continues to do well.


At a point in time where the equity market finally does struggle, and it will happen, that is going to be the point where gold will really start to come into its own once again. But as we saw into 1976, when the equity market was performing well, it’s going to be very difficult while this is happening in equities to see a significant push up in the gold price.”



I had an agent back in the 90's that was thoroughly adept at long rambling conversations in which absolutely nothing of substance was conferred. I can't be positive, but I'm more than a little convinced she wrote that.

[sellersm]

Today, Rick Rule said:

It is completely consistent with gold’s trading in the past that this has been a cyclical decline in a secular bull market. Remember, from 1974 to 1976, in the midst of the most historic run in gold in my memory, where gold went from $35 to $850 an ounce, in the middle of that epic run there was a decline from $200 an ounce, to $100 an ounce. People who didn’t have the courage or the cash to stay the trade in the 50% decline, missed an 850% 4-year run. Investors can ignore that at their own peril.”

[muddywings]

Well, as of today, I'm in. Bought my first batch of silver rounds.
Thanks all!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk (http://tapatalk.com/m?id=1)

[HoneyBadger]

Well, as of today, I'm in. Bought my first batch of silver rounds.
Thanks all!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk (http://tapatalk.com/m?id=1)
Congrats! I'll be in soon too I think.

[sellersm]

It really is a great time to start!! Congrats!

[sellersm]

And one more quote for the day, from William Kaye:


“We are at levels in gold that are absolutely compelling. We are betting with our own pocketbook, and the money of people who have entrusted us with their savings as well. I would be stunned if you are talking one year from today and gold is not 50% to 60% higher than where it’s trading today....

“I will say that if you don’t have any humility after 35 years in this business, then you probably haven’t been in this business. We’ve taken a shellacking on our gold position, and guys who I have a lot less respect for are looking better at this point because the dumb money is getting paid.
But this is a long-term game, investing. It requires patience, and the ability to see idiots around you making money and crowing about it. But this is like one inning in a 9-inning ball game. If you’ve been around this game for 30+ years as I have, as guys like Eric Sprott have, it’s not a 9-inning game, it’s really a 30-or-40-inning game.


I think if you look at our record in that time frame, you would have a greater appreciation for what we do. We look at things through a different prism. We have experience, having seen major cycles such as the one I witnessed in the 1970s and early 1980s -- the stagflation that was so endemic in that era. Some of the younger people just don’t have an appreciation for that history because they didn’t have to live through that history, nor did they have to make money during that unbelievable turbulence.


And this year the lesson has been that the dark forces which have gripped the United States politically, and more importantly in terms of the central bank, forces that have gripped Europe, the ECB which only came into being roughly 13 years ago, the forces at play even in Japan, have been extremely destructive, but the reality is that we’re just not paying the price for it yet. But that day will surely come.


If you look at Japan in the past, the value of the savings of the people had increased every year, even as people in the West asked them, ‘How can you put up with a stagnant economy that doesn’t even grow?’ Well, the Japanese people had the benefit of deflation, while people in the West experienced inflation. This gave the Japanese people, particularly the savers, a distinct advantage over those in the West.


So the Japanese were on a different business model. But now the Japanese have been co-opted by the same dark forces which rule the West, to join the parade and the ongoing race to the bottom in currencies. Now, in the race to the bottom the question is, who wins?


People have begun to wonder to themselves, ‘Why didn’t I just buy the S&P? Why have I endured holding precious metals, which have done so poorly over the past couple of years?’ So, people may wonder if people like myself, Eric Sprott, and others you interview are correct in our thesis, but if they look at 30+ years of our history, they would basically say, well, maybe we do know what we are talking about.


Assuming we have learned something in that 30+ years, it’s that this experiment, which is an extraordinary experiment in central banking fiat currency debasement, is going to end very, very poorly. It’s going to end poorly for the economies involved. It’s also going to end poorly for the people who have assets denominated in those currencies.


But it’s going to end very well, at the end of the day, and I now think the end of the day looks like the first quarter of next year, for the people who have positioned themselves in the anti-fiat currency, and that’s gold and silver. It’s going to go extremely well for things like gold that for 5,000 years people have gone to when they’ve lost confidence and respect in governments and the fiat currencies they issue. That’s my final say on this, Eric.”

[mahabali]

Keeping a close eye on silver...

[asmo]

Okay. If I want to start buying silver - what do I do. I dont care about coins with fancy imprints and all that crap. I just want metal and I don't want to pay outrageous fees.

[Sawin]

Okay. If I want to start buying silver - what do I do. I dont care about coins with fancy imprints and all that crap. I just want metal and I don't want to pay outrageous fees.

What do you mean, "what do I do"? Just go to a coin shop or online coin/bullion retailer and buy some... there are also several tables at the Tanner shows, where you can buy silver rounds or ingots. There's a show in Loveland this weekend...perhaps try there?

[roberth]

Okay. If I want to start buying silver - what do I do. I dont care about coins with fancy imprints and all that crap. I just want metal and I don't want to pay outrageous fees.

Call some coin shops and get some quotes on American Silver Eagles and 90% dimes / quarters. ASEs are beautiful coins, they might be a good place to start and get the kids/wife involved too.

[davsel]

Okay. If I want to start buying silver - what do I do. I dont care about coins with fancy imprints and all that crap. I just want metal and I don't want to pay outrageous fees.

Research
http://www.apmex.com/newinvestors
Buy
http://www.apmex.com/category/528/silver-coins-90-40-35

[Roger Ronas]

As far as whether to do coins or rounds and or Bullion bars, Doesn't the bullion get recorded with the feds? I always heard that rounds or coins were better because they don't get Logged.
Just asking because I'm stupid.

Roger

[Dave_L]

It's my understanding that only purchases over X amount get reported. The thing about pre-1965 coins is that they can be classified under coin collecting so they can't be taken by the government. Bullion and non-collector coins could be mandated to be given back if the gov't ever needed silver/gold. At least that is my understanding of it.

[Sawin]

Maybe this will help. http://goldsilver.com/article/irs-1099-gold-reporting-private-gold-private-silver-bullion/

[asmo]

Thank you all for your advice. I made an investment in some bars.. Lets see how well this thing works.

I don't really want them for their market value. I want them for their trade value if the world takes a shit. Hence I don't care how purty they look or if they have fancy logos and impressions on them. Just raw metal in transferable chunks.

[crays]

Thank you all for your advice. I made an investment in some bars.. Lets see how well this thing works.

I don't really want them for their market value. I want them for their trade value if the world takes a shit. Hence I don't care how purty they look or if they have fancy logos and impressions on them. Just raw metal in transferable chunks.

And preferably the same metal all the way through.

Sent via my Mobile Work Avoidance Device

[sellersm]

And this today from Egon von Greyerz, who is founder of Matterhorn Asset Management out of Switzerland:


In the meantime, the US stock market is making new all-time highs, also fueled by QE. Stock investors are totally oblivious to what’s happening the real world. This is a dangerous market which will end in tears during 2014. The percentage of bears is the lowest in 23 years, at 15%. And earnings estimates are now going down, while stocks are going continuing to go higher.

Of course the Fed knows, and Yellen knows, that there is no chance of stopping QE. Stock markets would collapse. Bond markets would collapse, and so would the whole economy. The Chicago Fed President Evans just confirmed that QE could be $1.5 trillion next year. In my view QE will be a lot higher thereafter. I believe that in January and February there will be no real solution to the US debt limit, and this will trigger dollar selling and bond markets falling.



In the meantime, the West is offering the East the most priceless gift that anyone can receive by manipulating the paper price of gold lower. This is allowing the East to acquire real physical gold at prices that will never be seen again. And the East is gratefully taking all that is being handed to them.



I agree with your excellent interview with William Kaye. The world is too short-term oriented. Real wealth is created and preserved by waiting patiently for assets to reach their intrinsic value. So the dollar will soon reach its intrinsic value of zero, and gold will reach stratospheric levels that are difficult to imagine today.

[roberth]

And this today from Egon von Greyerz, who is founder of Matterhorn Asset Management out of Switzerland:

DOW hit 16,000 and the S&P500 hit 1800, NASDAQ isn't too far behind the round number of 4000, this is great all the paper people.

[StevenP]

Anyone gone to the local coin shows? Have you guys found better deals at coin shows then buying online? Which shows would you recommend?

Thanks,
StevenP

[MrPrena]

DOW hit 16,000 and the S&P500 hit 1800, NASDAQ isn't too far behind the round number of 4000, this is great all the paper people.


Last time I've seen NASDAQ at 4000 was good old yr 2000.
It would be pretty huge.

[roberth]

Last time I've seen NASDAQ at 4000 was good old yr 2000.
It would be pretty huge.

It would be their trifecta, the paper markets are on the never ending spiral upwards, just like the housing market prior to 2008.

[kidicarus13]

Those of you that think PMs are the end all be all and are too smart to take profits from paper markets are missing an opportunity.

[Great-Kazoo]

Those of you that think PMs are the end all be all and are too smart to take profits from paper markets are missing an opportunity.

Such as ? Being newer to this i'm always open to suggestions.

[kidicarus13]

Such as ? Being newer to this i'm always open to suggestions.
Choice... http://www.barchart.com/stocks/performance/ytd.php?filter=lrgcap

[ChunkyMonkey]

Those of you that think PMs are the end all be all and are too smart to take profits from paper markets are missing an opportunity.

Apple and orange as discussed before. One is a leverage, the other one is speculative / pure gambling for profit.

You want real profit as in dividend, get into 30-50 rental units as starter... The dividend is in the $200k a year. For the same amount of investment, I would never see that kind number in stock. And we aren't even talking about the speculative part itself which is Capital/stock gain and loss.

Stock is the biggest loser in my book. 30% tax, highly unstable, elementary for those who wants to start to 'invest,' highest fee (401k, Ira etc) and worst the so called experts in stock make the same mistake every decade or so.

[lex137]

I would love to have a few rental units/homes.

[ChunkyMonkey]

I would love to have a few rental units/homes.

All about leverage.. Because bank is taking 90% of the risk of your portfolio. It's better than trading a stock margin account as if my house burns down, insurance company sends me a check... When the stock market crashes, does your broker care?

Furthermore with leverage, your initial investment aka Downpayment doubles every 12 months or so and mostly written off by your depreciation etc for tax reason.

Finally with rental portfolio, whenever the housing market crashes, rental fee goes up (more profit) and bank takes all the risk on the capitalization, yet when the market is hot, rental fee doesn't go down and YOU gain value. It's almost bullet proof IMHO.

Now back to silver, silver is something I have that is liquid enough and much more stable than cash in the bank.

[roberth]

Those of you that think PMs are the end all be all and are too smart to take profits from paper markets are missing an opportunity.

Conversely, the paper markets aren't the end all either, as much as the media and other shills would like us to think.

ChunkyMonkey articulated it much better than I ever could. The risk, the taxation, the constant overwatch to make sure paper is sold while it is still profitable, I have better things to do with my time, my trust, and my money.

[kidicarus13]

Conversely, the paper markets aren't the end all either, as much as the media and other shills would like us to think.

I agree, just another option. There is a "right" time for every investment.

[ChunkyMonkey]

Insurance vs investment is the better comparison

[roberth]

I agree, just another option. There is a "right" time for every investment.

Yes, I missed on Ford earlier this year. It was $9 a share and I had some cash but I didn't buy in. Ford closed at $17 yesterday, I could have made some cash on a 10 month investment but I passed to do some other things. Also, historically I do not do well when I'm with Wall Street, with my luck if I'd invested Ford would be at $3 now. :)

[MrPrena]

It would be their trifecta, the paper markets are on the never ending spiral upwards, just like the housing market prior to 2008.

If you look at the macro perspective. Yes, it would be artificial.

[MrPrena]

Seems like you are comparing below securities investors VS above average real estate investors.
Just look at Forbes richest 400.

Let's look at the fee:
secondary market $10mil comission is ~$9.99.
$10mil Real estate commission is ~6% ($600k)

securities are liquid
real estates needs 6% again to sell, if they can sell it.

I don't need to worry about tenant suing me. FEE on ROTH/IRA? Sure, I only pay $9.99 for a fee. It cost far less than fixing a door knob for tenants.

One of benefit I see on real estate investment is the rental income. Oh wait.... I can always write/sell Way out of money call/puts (some calls it Lotto Options) to create income too with nano/pico risk! [Flower]




Apple and orange as discussed before. One is a leverage, the other one is speculative / pure gambling for profit.

You want real profit as in dividend, get into 30-50 rental units as starter... The dividend is in the $200k a year. For the same amount of investment, I would never see that kind number in stock. And we aren't even talking about the speculative part itself which is Capital/stock gain and loss.

Stock is the biggest loser in my book. 30% tax, highly unstable, elementary for those who wants to start to 'invest,' highest fee (401k, Ira etc) and worst the so called experts in stock make the same mistake every decade or so.


All about leverage.. Because bank is taking 90% of the risk of your portfolio. It's better than trading a stock margin account as if my house burns down, insurance company sends me a check... When the stock market crashes, does your broker care?

Furthermore with leverage, your initial investment aka Downpayment doubles every 12 months or so and mostly written off by your depreciation etc for tax reason.

Finally with rental portfolio, whenever the housing market crashes, rental fee goes up (more profit) and bank takes all the risk on the capitalization, yet when the market is hot, rental fee doesn't go down and YOU gain value. It's almost bullet proof IMHO.

Now back to silver, silver is something I have that is liquid enough and much more stable than cash in the bank.

[sellersm]

Again, I'd encourage you to look at PMs as currency, NOT investment. The rules for each are way different, and to confuse them will lead to undesirable results.

If you want to acquire some physical gold, it's a great time to buy!!

[ChunkyMonkey]

Seems like you are comparing below securities investors VS above average real estate investors.
Just look at Forbes richest 400.

Let's look at the fee:
secondary market $10mil comission is ~$9.99.
$10mil Real estate commission is ~6% ($600k)

securities are liquid
real estates needs 6% again to sell, if they can sell it.

I don't need to worry about tenant suing me. FEE on ROTH/IRA? Sure, I only pay $9.99 for a fee. It cost far less than fixing a door knob for tenants.

One of benefit I see on real estate investment is the rental income. Oh wait.... I can always write/sell Way out of money call/puts (some calls it Lotto Options) to create income too with nano/pico risk! [Flower]


Not an analysis or market expert like many claims to be, but I do have comparison in real life experience after losing 180k over night during the internet bubble and making it back up in short time in real estate. Fixing door knob etc is property manager's job on each property. You are still thinking capital gain, which I used to too. Forget the capitalization, instead, think dividend. A fair comparison in your post would be between a daily trader and a fix and flipper (both are high risk imho).

Here is another recent real experience of my long time buddy who I finally convinced to leave the market... He had close to $100k in 2 different 401k - which had doubled the past 10 years or so. I convinced him to transfer them into self directed IRA account, since he insisted on not cashing out, or paying the capital gain and get over it.

So he used the 100k in the new self directed IRA to put down payments on 8 different rental units. With today's low low rate, he nets roughly $5000 a month after mortgage, insurance, some HOA, and 8% in property manager fee.

The math is extremely simple, he goes from doubling his retirement in 10 years, to doubling it in 2 years thanks to bank's leverage. Most of all, these are real asset that leverage against inflation, unlike paper money or stock. By switching his portfolio from the stock into housing market, his growth is going 5x as fast. Now, he is learning his mistake. If he wouldve cashed out his 401k instead of going IRA, he doesn't have to pay 30% in the future whem his portfolio will be much larger.

Now keep in mind, in rental units, you must ignore 'capital gain' as everything is for long term (traditional market trend shows that your house will gain 100% of its value every decade or so http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-xy8GnkXGKBs/UUcdzb9tiyI/AAAAAAAAH7s/57PUFfNvnFU/s1600/za-ttm-median-us-new-home-sale-prices-jan1963-jan-2013.png). You can compare this part with stock market (dow jones was at 10000 in 2003 and now barely passed 16000 - 60% gain average).

Of course, most stock brokers/ daily traders love to argue that his picks are much higher than average. Hell, I used to do that during the mid 90s..until the crash and got schooled by a college friend when he showed me his 300 rental unit portfolio. Best part is, anyone with a descent credit can do the exact same. Those days of staring at 3 CRTs are long gone.. !

[MrPrena]

Maybe you looked at the people with below average experience with securities, and I looked at the above average securities investors/traders.
Yeah, you do not need to go to Top 5 MBA Finance school with CFAIII and/or CMT to be an market expert.
Again, cap gain isn't the only way to play market. You can get a consistent income from market as well with less capital than real estate.
Don't get me wrong. People around me do all sort of deals besides securities.
Some people make more during Bull market, and some just do better during bear market.
As you mentioned the 2000 internet bubble, I've seen lots of people who lost majority of their $$. In contrast, I've seen people making tons of $$ by shorting and puts on high earnings multiple stocks to nearly zero.

I recently had a failed acquisition on private equity deal up north. I do value the residential/commercial real estate as well, and know the perks.
Although, I am not a "private capital/equities" or "Leverage Buyout" expert, but I do know some enough to make some $$ for a company I use to work for when I was in late 20s.

I believe your friend is definitely better off invest heavier on residential/commercial real estate than a market.
I do know a kid who is in grad school at CU, and he is making about same net on selling out-of-money puts (again lotto options) with far less capital. He does that every month to collect premium.

Your friend doubling his retirement in 2 years on a real estate from bank's leverage is impressive.
Apple with ~550% in 5yr average is impressive? I am sure people who ONLY invest in real estate would say it is LUCKY.
Forget 550% in 5 years. Would you believe me if I told you that my wife had approximately 2000% CALCULATED (no luck) return her retirement within 6 years off of her ESPP/401K alone?


To reply your last statement. Why are you comparing a real estate to a DJIA? I am sure you know better. :D
Indicies or Index funds ETFs are for people who just want to have a ride to the market. S&P500 with < 50% gain?
Even a no brainier stocks like NFLX or BBY with LESS THAN 2.0 risk multiple had over 150-320% gain YTD. Oh yeah. that is just on Investing LONG without making INCOME off of writing call/put.

I think people should compare $X/yr income real estate investor to $X/yr income securities investors. Not $X/yr real estate investor to Negative $Y/yr securities investors.




Not an analysis or market expert like many claims to be, but I do comparison in my real experience after losing 180k over night during the internet bubble and making it back up in short time in real estate. Fixing door knob etc is property manager's job on each property. You are still thinking capital gain, which I used to too. Forget the capitalization, instead, think dividend. A fair comparison in your post would be between a daily trader and a fix and flipper (both are high risk imho).

Here is another recent real experience of my long time buddy who I finally convinced to leave the market... He had close to $100k in 2 different 401k - which had doubled the past 10 years or so. I convinced him to transfer them into self directed IRA account, since he insisted on not cashing out, or paying the capital gain and get over it.

So he used the 100k in the new self directed IRA to put down payments on 8 different rental units. With today's low low rate, he nets roughly $5000 a month after mortgage, insurance, some HOA, and 8% in property manager fee.

The math is extremely simple, he goes from doubling his retirement in 10 years, to doubling it in 2 years thanks to bank's leverage. Most of all, these are real asset that leverage against inflation, unlike paper money or stock. By switching his portfolio from the stock into housing market, his growth is going 5x as fast. Now, he is learning his mistake. If he wouldve cashed out his 401k instead of going IRA, he doesn't have to pay 30% in the future whem his portfolio will be much larger.

Now keep in mind, in rental units, you must ignore 'capital gain' as everything is for long term (traditional market trend shows that your house will gain 100% of its value every decade or so http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-xy8GnkXGKBs/UUcdzb9tiyI/AAAAAAAAH7s/57PUFfNvnFU/s1600/za-ttm-median-us-new-home-sale-prices-jan1963-jan-2013.png). You can compare this part with stock market (dow jones was at 10000 in 2003 and now barely passed 16000 - 60% gain average).

Of course, most stock brokers/ daily traders love to argue that his picks are much higher than average. Hell, I used to do that during the mid 90s..until the crash and got schooled by a college friend when he showed me his 300 rental unit portfolio. Best part is, anyone with a descent credit can do the exact same. Those days of staring at 3 CRTs are long gone.. !

[ChunkyMonkey]

Maybe you looked at the people with below average experience with securities, and I looked at the above average securities investors/traders.
Yeah, you do not need to go to Top 5 MBA Finance school with CFAIII and/or CMT to be an market expert.
Again, cap gain isn't the only way to play market. You can get a consistent income from market as well with less capital than real estate.
Don't get me wrong. People around me do all sort of deals besides securities.
Some people make more during Bull market, and some just do better during bear market.
As you mentioned the 2000 internet bubble, I've seen lots of people who lost majority of their $$. In contrast, I've seen people making tons of $$ by shorting and puts on high earnings multiple stocks to nearly zero.

I recently had a failed acquisition on private equity deal up north. I do value the residential/commercial real estate as well, and know the perks.
Although, I am not a "private capital/equities" or "Leverage Buyout" expert, but I do know some enough to make some $$ for a company I use to work for when I was in late 20s.

I believe your friend is definitely better off invest heavier on residential/commercial real estate than a market.
I do know a kid who is in grad school at CU, and he is making about same net on selling out-of-money puts (again lotto options) with far less capital. He does that every month to collect premium.

Your friend doubling his retirement in 2 years on a real estate from bank's leverage is impressive.
Apple with ~550% in 5yr average is impressive? I am sure people who ONLY invest in real estate would say it is LUCKY.
Forget 550% in 5 years. Would you believe me if I told you that my wife had approximately 2000% CALCULATED (no luck) return her retirement within 6 years off of her ESPP/401K alone?


To reply your last statement. Why are you comparing a real estate to a DJIA? I am sure you know better. :D
Indicies or Index funds ETFs are for people who just want to have a ride to the market. S&P500 with < 50% gain?
Even a no brainier stocks like NFLX or BBY with LESS THAN 2.0 risk multiple had over 150-320% gain YTD. Oh yeah. that is just on Investing LONG without making INCOME off of writing call/put.

I think people should compare $X/yr income real estate investor to $X/yr income securities investors. Not $X/yr real estate investor to Negative $Y/yr securities investors.

You made my point.. :) No luck, no skill, and easier money on the real estate side. The last statement was to answer your direct comparison between capital gainer to dividend earner. My friend doubled his initial investment in just dividend, not counting the value increases.

You are still comparing capital gain vs dividend earner. In that case, my best deal are 2 properties here in Denver metro area that I purchased for $14k and $32k. Both are still producing me dividend of $800 a month for the last 5 years with increasing rate annually and many fold over in value. Show me one stock that give you that kind of yield on monthly or annual basis on top of the value gain :)

Doubling capital with just rental income in 2 years is norm in rental business. Especially now that fnma allows 10% on certain investment loan and hard money guys are jumping back in. These folks are not top 'investors' as you put it.

Best of all, bull or bear, we the lowly landlords still get our dividends.

Back on the topic, I look at silver as insurance. I am not sure how some people buy it for the gain of its value.

PS..sorry didnt mean this to become pissing contest lol

[MrPrena]

LOL. no problem on your PS. I deal with this kind of questions at least once a month at a social gathering. [Flower]
I do somewhat agree that it might be slightly easier to make $$$ on real estate side. It all depends on experience, and which side of headache investor/income collectors are more tolerable.
My parents did that when they were rich. (obviously not rich anymore).


Okay. Stock/Stores/Private Eq/Real estate has to work MORE than a purchase ALONE in order to generate any types of income.
This is probably best way to compare it, because securities investors can generate much higher income than their .01% annual dividends.

CAPITAL GAINS (Comparison in order)
-Buying a company (private equity/capital/or a small store) and selling it for a cap gain only (flip).
-Buying a stock only for a cap gain only.
-Buying a residential/commercial real estate only for a flip (cap gain) only.

DIVIDENDS/INCOMES (Gotta do MORE than a purchase of ANY investments)
-AFTER Buying a company (private equity/capital/or a small store), YOU are operating it for an income at xyz entity.
-AFTER buying a stock, you are writing options (option strategies) based on your position + collecting dinky little dividends, and/or decent one time dividends. <-------
-AFTER Buying a residential/commercial real estate, you are renting the property to a tenants.










You made my point.. :) No luck, no skill, and easier money on the real estate side. The last statement was to answer your direct comparison between capital gainer to dividend earner. My friend doubled his initial investment in just dividend, not counting the value increases.

You are still comparing capital gain vs dividend earner. In that case, my best deal are 2 properties here in Denver metro area that I purchased for $14k and $32k. Both are still producing me dividend of $800 a month for the last 5 years with increasing rate annually and many fold over in value. Show me one stock that give you that kind of yield on monthly or annual basis on top of the value gain :)

Doubling capital with just rental income in 2 years is norm in rental business. Especially now that fnma allows 10% on certain investment loan and hard money guys are jumping back in. These folks are not top 'investors' as you put it.

Best of all, bull or bear, we the lowly landlords still get our dividends.

Back on the topic, I look at silver as insurance. I am not sure how some people buy it for the gain of its value.

PS..sorry didnt mean this to become pissing contest lol

[ChunkyMonkey]

DIVIDENDS/INCOMES (Gotta do MORE than a purchase of ANY investments)
-AFTER Buying a company (private equity/capital/or a small store), YOU are operating it for an income at xyz entity.
-AFTER buying a stock, you are writing options (option strategies) based on your position + collecting dinky little dividends, and/or decent one time dividends. <-------
-AFTER Buying a residential/commercial real estate, you are renting the property to a tenants.

You got it backward my friend. Stock/investment/daily trading takes up your time.. just as much as 8-5 job unless you are in the hundred millions column. Real estate portfolio is on the opposite side.

Keep in mind, only fix and flip or fix and rent has to do more work after the transaction. Most portfolio buyer does not do anything other than maybe raising ongoing rent rate when the contracts expire. Same goes with franchise portfolio (smaller margin but huge volume such as McD franchisors. In most instance they buy multiple franchises in order to stay out of the day to day operation side)

An example of ongoing deal...

Multifamily Property For Sale
Braveson Manor

1775 & 1225 West 6th Ave, Craig, CO 81625


http://www.loopnet.com/Attachments/A/C/B/ACB1093C-0327-438B-ADA3-FAAF85EEA3A1.JPG (http://www.loopnet.com/xNet/MainSite/Listing/Profile/Profile.aspx?LID=18426928&SRID=3877854260&StepID=101#)









Price:$2,400,000
No. Units:60
Building Size:52,272 SF
Price/Unit:$40,000
Property Type:Multifamily
Property Sub-type:Garden/Low-Rise
Property Use Type:Investment
Commission Split:3%
Cap Rate:10%
Occupancy:92%
Lot Size:2.33 AC



Description

60 Unit Apartment Building in Craig Colorado. Good unit mix.
Craig CO

Financial Summary



Actual
Net Operating Income$240,000



So with net operating income of $240k, 30% down - you double your initial investment in 3 years and earn 30% every year not counting the value gain. No brainer :D No work needs to be done... part of the cost includes maintenance and property management fee already. Many folks who would rather browse this site or go shooting instead of watching the market find real estate extremely easy, non time consuming, with very minimal risk.

[MrPrena]

I have no doubt in m y mind that you are good at what you are doing. I would love to get some tips to increase my knowledge, so that I can diversify my small/little portfolio that I have (savings which is ridiculously small) into real estate. By means, I am not a Icahn, Ackman, nor Peltz. I am not even close to that.

I almost signed a private cap deal (acquisition) last month; which include a factory and the office up north. For some reasons, I did not go with it.
Yes, I am heavy on securities, and very minimal to no private equities/cap or even a real estates.

I've seen a guy who invested in a motel without too much homework, and they bought a crap hole.
I25 and hwy 119 area is a good example. I know a guy in Castle Rock, who bought a POS motel infested with prostitute and drugee. I am sure he will turn the business around with some renovations.
Church member I know owns a similar type of housing complex in Lakewood, and he is getting sued by tenant left and right, because he didn't allocate his time on doing DD. He got into low income thing with county. lol
This guy has a maintenance crew, but he does some of the easy jobs (such as toilet, light, door fix, etc) on his own on other single family properties at age of 71.
YES. Stock/investment/daily trading CAN takes up your time. However, I am not on the trading floor (for me, home office) every day 9:30-2pm. Maybe I am on the trading desk, when there is some kind of catalyst/earnings. Even that, I can do that off of my tablet/laptop/phone almost everywhere.

I am not saying residential/commercial real estate isn't a bad thing. However, i think there are too much headaches for me.



You got it backward my friend. Stock/investment/daily trading takes up your time.. just as much as 8-5 job unless you are in the hundred millions column. Real estate portfolio is on the opposite side.

Keep in mind, only fix and flip or fix and rent has to do more work after the transaction. Most portfolio buyer does not do anything other than maybe raising ongoing rent rate when the contracts expire. Same goes with franchise portfolio (smaller margin but huge volume such as McD franchisors. In most instance they buy multiple franchises in order to stay out of the day to day operation side)

An example of ongoing deal...

Multifamily Property For Sale
Braveson Manor

1775 & 1225 West 6th Ave, Craig, CO 81625


http://www.loopnet.com/Attachments/A/C/B/ACB1093C-0327-438B-ADA3-FAAF85EEA3A1.JPG (http://www.loopnet.com/xNet/MainSite/Listing/Profile/Profile.aspx?LID=18426928&SRID=3877854260&StepID=101#)









Price:$2,400,000
No. Units:60
Building Size:52,272 SF
Price/Unit:$40,000
Property Type:Multifamily
Property Sub-type:Garden/Low-Rise
Property Use Type:Investment
Commission Split:3%
Cap Rate:10%
Occupancy:92%
Lot Size:2.33 AC



Description

60 Unit Apartment Building in Craig Colorado. Good unit mix.
Craig CO

Financial Summary



Actual
Net Operating Income$240,000



So with net operating income of $240k, 30% down - you double your initial investment in 3 years and earn 30% every year not counting the value gain. No brainer :D No work needs to be done... part of the cost includes maintenance and property management fee already. Many folks who would rather browse this site or go shooting instead of watching the market find real estate extremely easy, non time consuming, with very minimal risk.

[Irving]

One of our mentors looks for crack/whore houses to buy because she gets them at great deals. She has eviction notices up on all the doors within 30 minutes of closing on the property. She bought a place once that was a 9-unit building, full occupancy, and only one tenant was paying rent!

Anyway, so far I've been able to do exactly what Chunky has been talking about, and it has been working out pretty well so far. I think the business will have made $12,000 in profit by the end of the year, and we acquired the property in June. We haven't taken any money out of the business yet, as we will be using it to purchase the next, better property. That's the plan anyway.

[hatidua]

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v355/hatidua/original_postthread_direction_derail_copy1_zps0db3 0ae0.jpg

[Sawin]

Those of you that think PMs are the end all be all and are too smart to take profits from paper markets are missing an opportunity.
I don't think there's a single person on here that's only investing in PM's... Most are into real estate investing or the markets for a lot more money than in PM's as far as I know.

[hghclsswhitetrsh]

We talking silver and gold or real estate? Can't remember the thread name.

[Irving]

This thread went off topic, but everything has been informative thus far, in my opinion. Keep posting the articles about PM, I'm very interested.

[roberth]

We talking silver and gold or real estate? Can't remember the thread name.

Yes. :)

Silver.

Gold and Silver are continuing their downward spiral this morning.

I visited Dave's on Broadway near RMC, $25 per ASE including the tax. Good store, I'll go back there.

[Sawin]

I heard something this weekend from a vendor at the Loveland Tanner show that I've not heard so adamantly before. I've heard rumors, but never thought there was much merit in them... I'd like to get the crowd's opinion.

A vendor told me that the entire reason Eagles are more expensive is because they are the only American minted bullion that cannot be confiscated or reported to the IRS when sold... Now, be aware I know this gent had his own self-interest in mind because he was selling them, but basically he said all non-eagles are subject to confiscation at the governments whim. He referred back to FDR's seizing in the 30's and claimed there was a huge fine, possible jail time, and a $10K reward (in 1930's money!) for someone who turned in a person who had bullion and wasn't turning it in.

My personal position on this is the same as firearms... but how much of his sales-pitch is legitimate? Anyone have any insight into this?

[Irving]

I think that if it comes down to the gov going door to door seizing metals from people, standing there and saying "But these are American Silver Eagles," isn't going to accomolosh anything. You'd probably be handed an IOU like everyone else.

[Sawin]

I think that if it comes down to the gov going door to door seizing metals from people, standing there and saying "But these are American Silver Eagles," isn't going to accomolosh anything. You'd probably be handed an IOU like everyone else.

I agree with that, and came up with a few justifications in my mind for not buying the Eagles, but it was an interesting premise nonetheless. If the aspect of not having to report sales of any quantity of Eagles to the IRS is also a factor though, then his story might still have some foundation to consider. I just don't know yet.

[Irving]

Agreed.

[lex137]

The retailer I have gone to only accepts cash, so no paper record unless you keep a receipt. I figure if they start coming dose to door I will have more problems than them trying to take just PMs.

[Great-Kazoo]

I heard something this weekend from a vendor at the Loveland Tanner show that I've not heard so adamantly before. I've heard rumors, but never thought there was much merit in them... I'd like to get the crowd's opinion.

A vendor told me that the entire reason Eagles are more expensive is because they are the only American minted bullion that cannot be confiscated or reported to the IRS when sold... Now, be aware I know this gent had his own self-interest in mind because he was selling them, but basically he said all non-eagles are subject to confiscation at the governments whim. He referred back to FDR's seizing in the 30's and claimed there was a huge fine, possible jail time, and a $10K reward (in 1930's money!) for someone who turned in a person who had bullion and wasn't turning it in.

My personal position on this is the same as firearms... but how much of his sales-pitch is legitimate? Anyone have any insight into this?

Like the magazine and firearm issue who the hell knows what you have in your possession, UNLESS you post it over the internet?

[lex137]

^^^^ this. I just sold all my PMs even jewelry and melted all my guns down into paper weights today!

[Sawin]

Like the magazine and firearm issue who the hell knows what you have in your possession, UNLESS you post it over the internet?

Jim, you're usually so helpful. haha, I've never been one to say what I have or do not have on the internet. I'm just wondering if there really is a BS law/exception that validates the reasoning for paying higher premiums on Silver Eagles. Can anyone tell me that?

[hatidua]

a BS law/exception that validates the reasoning for paying higher premiums on Silver Eagles. Can anyone tell me that?

I can't speak for Jim, or about any legitimate law, but imagine if you were looking to buy an ounce of silver and you were approached by two individuals, both selling 1oz of silver. One was a Silver American Eagle, and one was a round from Billy Bob's Silver Emporium, complete with a photo of Billy Bob on it. Would you pay a little bit more for the SAE?

[Sawin]

I can't speak for Jim, or about any legitimate law, but imagine if you were looking to buy an ounce of silver and you were approached by two individuals, both selling 1oz of silver. One was a Silver American Eagle, and one was a round from Billy Bob's Silver Emporium, complete with a photo of Billy Bob on it. Would you pay a little bit more for the SAE?

Interesting hypothetical....All things being equal. My answer based on my current, yet subject to change, opinion of generic rounds is, No. I see no reason to pay a premium for 1oz of silver, just because of the impression that's minted into it's face.... If the silver content was identical and the purpose of buying the silver was solely to diversify out of the USD, then I would NOT pay a premium for the SAE. Again, all things being equal.

That is the entire purpose behind my question. I am wondering if there is more to the equation that justifies the premium.... pretty simple concept guys. Stop nitpicking.

[sellersm]

I don't know much about these sites, but according to them, there's a bit of truth to what this seller told you:

This site discusses confiscation:
http://www.americanfederal.com/coins/


Think your $20 St. Gaudens gold coins are safe from Confiscation? This particular topic is used as a scare tactic to sell you over-priced coins that do absolutely nothing to protect you and only serves to let the dealer confiscate your money. If you are concerned about confiscation, there are simple, low cost ways of protecting yourself. You will be surprised which coins are safe…. US Eagles and Buffalos are actually safe from confiscation. Most dealers will claim just the opposite, but the legislation that created them clearly states they are “numismatic” coins.The Gold Bullion Coin Act of 1985 (Public Law 99-185 of Dec. 17, 1985, 99 Statutes At Large 1177, 31 USC 5101, 5111, 5112) provided for minting the American Eagle gold coins. Section 2(3) provides, “For purposes of section 5132(a)(1) of [Title 31], all coins minted under this subsection shall be considered to be numismatic items.”
The Liberty Coin Act of July 9, 1985 (Public Law 99-61 of 7/9/85, 99 Stat. 115, 31 USC 5112) authorized the one ounce silver coin commonly called the Silver American Eagle. At section 202(g) it contains identical language.
The American Eagle gold coins and the silver American Eagles are “numismatic” coins. (31 USC Section 5132(a)(1) requires the Secretary of the Treasury to apply proceeds from selling “numismatic” items to cost of making them.)
In addition, certain dealers maintain that coins with a premium of 15% over bullion value are also defined as numismatic. This too is false. In 1984, this was proposed but never adopted.
So if numismatic coins are exempt, the new Eagles and Buffalos are exempt too since they are specifically defined that way.
I maintain that $20 St. Gaudens and Liberties are NOT exempt.
Dealers will tell you otherwise.

This site discusses reporting: http://www.cmi-gold-silver.com/gold-confiscation-1933/



Reportable SalesCustomer sales to dealers of certain precious metals exceeding specific quantities call for reporting to the IRS on 1099B forms. The 1099B forms are similar to other 1099 forms taxpayers commonly receive; the “B” means they have been issued by a business other than a financial entity.
Reportable sales (again, customer sales to dealers) apply to 1-oz Gold Maple Leafs, 1-oz Krugerrands, and 1-oz Mexican Onzas in quantities of twenty-five or more in one transaction. Reporting requirements do not apply to American Gold Eagles, no matter the quantities. Furthermore, reporting requirements do not apply to any fractional ounce gold coins.
Only one common silver product is reportable when sold: pre-1965 U.S. coins. The quantity that causes the filing of a 1099B, however, is not clear. The IRS bases its authority to require reporting on CFTC-approved contracts that call for the delivery of $10,000 face value. Consequently, many dealers do not report sales of pre-1965 U.S. coins unless the sale totals $10,000 face value; others report $1,000 sales.
Sales of American Silver Eagle (http://www.cmi-gold-silver.com/american-silver-eagles/)s, privately-minted Silver Eagle 1-oz silver rounds (http://www.cmi-gold-silver.com/1-oz-silver-rounds/), and 100-oz silver bars (http://www.cmi-gold-silver.com/100-oz-silver-bars/) are not reportable, no matter the quantity. Other precious metals products are reportable, but they are not covered here because the average investor does not trade them.

And one more: http://the-moneychanger.com/articles/numismatics_what_the_law_really_says

[Sawin]

I don't know much about these sites, but according to them, there's a bit of truth to what this seller told you:

This site discusses confiscation:
http://www.americanfederal.com/coins/


This site discusses reporting: http://www.cmi-gold-silver.com/gold-confiscation-1933/


And one more: http://the-moneychanger.com/articles/numismatics_what_the_law_really_says


Thank you sellersm. I appreciate the links. I am not familiar with those sites either, but have read many like them yesterday and today. I just wanted to see if anyone here knew more assuredly. So far my opinion has not been changed.

[ChunkyMonkey]

Interesting hypothetical....All things being equal. My answer based on my current, yet subject to change, opinion of generic rounds is, No. I see no reason to pay a premium for 1oz of silver, just because of the impression that's minted into it's face.... If the silver content was identical and the purpose of buying the silver was solely to diversify out of the USD, then I would NOT pay a premium for the SAE. Again, all things being equal.

That is the entire purpose behind my question. I am wondering if there is more to the equation that justifies the premium.... pretty simple concept guys. Stop nitpicking.

Marketability, when you need to move them. Minted silver has much larger market..from collector to shtf prepper. Proof? Isn't that why most people doesn't mind paying the premium on the first place? My 1986 Silver eagle MS70 sold for $600 on ebay. :D

[sellersm]

Marketability, when you need to move them. Minted silver has much larger market..from collector to shtf prepper. Proof? Isn't that why most people doesn't mind paying the premium on the first place? My 1986 Silver eagle MS70 sold for $600 on ebay. :D

Agreed, for the most part. Look at the ads on this forum, even. Most ads that list "silver" as a payment option, almost always include "SAE" or "Maple leaf" along with the 'silver' word. There are many reasons for each option: generic, certified, rated, etc.

Once again, ask yourself what's your endgame/goal? What tool will be able to achieve that goal for you? Then run with the answer... In the end, however, just keep buying metals! [Coffee]

[sellersm]

And another word of advice for today, from James Turk: http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/11/25_Historic_Moves_In_Major_Markets_Is_Shocking_The _World.html


“Today the Comex options expired. The over-the-counter options expire in the next couple of days, so I suspect the downward pressure on gold will remain a bit longer. But that selling pressure will stop as we get closer to the end of the week.

A lower gold price is what the central planners want. It gives them an opportunity to claim that inflation is under control, even though central bank printing presses are running overtime, which of course is the reason that world stock markets continue to climb higher.



A lower gold price is also what the Chinese want because it enables them to get more physical gold for their dollars. Lower prices are also what the shorts in the hedge fund community want because they have been piling-on and building up their short positions in anticipation of the downtrend in gold prices continuing.



But the rubber band is stretched pretty far at the moment. So the relief rally, when gold and silver bounce from these levels, should be a good one. We only have to wait for the options to expire for some sort of relief rally to start, and hopefully that rally will finally mark the beginning of a new and prolonged uptrend.



I expect that the relief rally will begin as shorts cover before the US Thanksgiving holiday. Liquidity tends to drop over holidays, which makes it harder for shorts to cover in size. Given the huge speculative short position now being carried by hedge funds, anyone short should be focusing on being the first one out the door. Others who follow during periods of low liquidity will typically end up covering their shorts at higher prices.



It is important that the June lows in gold and silver have not been broken. Nor has the June low in the XAU, but it is threatening to do so. The HUI has already slipped below its June low. This drop in the price of mining shares is no doubt contributing to the all of the negative sentiment. The pessimism seems worse now than it was back in June, Eric, and I think this has happened because of the news coverage. The media is not covering all of the Chinese buying the way they did a few months ago.



I guess they think this continuing flow of gold from West to East is old news, and maybe from their perspective it is. But this exceptional demand for physical metal remains one of the most important factors in the gold market today. As a consequence, central banks continue to struggle to find physical gold to meet this insatiable demand for physical metal.



It was therefore not a surprise to me that the central banks are trying to do a deal to get their hands on Venezuela’s gold. The bankers were undoubtedly irked - and I am sure caught off guard - when Chavez demanded a couple of years ago that Venezuela’s gold reserves be returned to Caracas. It took the central planners months to get their hands on that 200 tonnes.



To get to the heart of the matter, Eric, the overall most important factor today that investors should be focusing on is central bank money printing. Stock markets are soaring because of it. And have you seen what is happening in the art market? Record high prices are a regular occurrence.



There are people out there who would rather pay $100 million for a Warhol, than have $100 million sit in a bank. There’s an important message here. That Warhol is not going to be debased like the dollar. There is no printing press turning out more Warhols, which is I think the key point.



The people with big money get it, Eric. People with that kind of money are not dumb. They know what’s coming and they are preparing for it. They are dumping their dollars as fast as the Federal Reserve prints them. And that means it is only a matter of time before the rigging of the gold price blows up.



Remember, hyperinflations don’t start with the middle class dumping the currency. They start with the rich. The rich - the so-called smart money - sees what is happening first, and responds to it. That’s why stock markets and the price of collectibles are soaring. These events are a clear vote of no confidence in the dollar.



It won’t be long before this message about the debasement of the dollar works its way down to the middle class, but by then the hyperinflation of the dollar will be even more obvious. So we should keep doing what the Chinese are doing -- accumulating physical gold and silver. This is how invididual investors can place their money right along side what the truly ‘smart’ money is betting, and that is China betting on dramatically higher gold prices.”

[Irving]

No one is nitpicking, simply pointing out that people don't really have a way to identify of something is good or not based on the appearance of the metal. Kind of like the difference between a certified pre-owned vehicle and one that is not. They may equal in value, but realistically the "certified" one will be easier to unload as more uninformed buyers will feel comfortable with the purchase.

As far as coin collecting goes, it'd be hard to have a coin collection of stuff with no markings.

[Sawin]

No one is nitpicking, simply pointing out that people don't really have a way to identify of something is good or not based on the appearance of the metal. Kind of like the difference between a certified pre-owned vehicle and one that is not. They may equal in value, but realistically the "certified" one will be easier to unload as more uninformed buyers will feel comfortable with the purchase.

As far as coin collecting goes, it'd be hard to have a coin collection of stuff with no markings.

I can accept that and definitely agree as a consumer I would much prefer a certified "anything" to a non-certified one... Recognizable products are important too. The cross section of buyers in the market who are at least interested in name brand merchandise is notably higher, and profit margins on their merchandise is also higher... all good things.

But let me put it this way since everyone seems to want to deal with hypotheticals today. Not you Irving, just most other responders thus far.

Let's say, hypothetically, that the purpose of buying physical PM's for someone is solely to diversify out of USD's for any number of reasons, and they only intend to sell it if substantial gains can be realized. Otherwise, they'll just keep it forever and pass it along to heirs...and THERE IS NOT A SHTF SCENARIO... so they will NOT be selling it or trading it, etc. They are not trying to "invest" in PM's, it is just an insurance policy that they will never be "broke".

Let's say this person has 1 trillion ounces of silver.
When that person goes to sell their 1 trillion ounces of silver to a reputable businessman, will they or will they not be reported to the IRS for capital gains purposes, or any other purpose, if their silver is entirely ASE's?

Is the answer the same if their silver is entirely NON-ASE's?

Is there a known weight or value threshold where the answer changes?

I am seeing conflicting answers all over the web, however, considering the number of places I've consistently seen (this afternoon) that states the sale of ASE's are not reported to the IRS, irrespective of the number of ounces, I'm inclined to say I have my answer.... I was just hoping to learn from my peers here if someone is more informed with a better source than just some random sites on the internet like me.

[crays]

Current laws/regs/etc regarding reporting are a moot point. You know the Administration of the day will back-door new rules and regs BEFORE they publicly announce any confiscation, especially if it's the filthy s#!tbags in office right now.

[ChunkyMonkey]

I can accept that and definitely agree as a consumer I would much prefer a certified "anything" to a non-certified one... Recognizable products are important too. The cross section of buyers in the market who are at least interested in name brand merchandise is notably higher, and profit margins on their merchandise is also higher... all good things.

But let me put it this way since everyone seems to want to deal with hypotheticals today. Not you Irving, just most other responders thus far.

Let's say, hypothetically, that the purpose of buying physical PM's for someone is solely to diversify out of USD's for any number of reasons, and they only intend to sell it if substantial gains can be realized. Otherwise, they'll just keep it forever and pass it along to heirs...and THERE IS NOT A SHTF SCENARIO... so they will NOT be selling it or trading it, etc. They are not trying to "invest" in PM's, it is just an insurance policy that they will never be "broke".

Let's say this person has 1 trillion ounces of silver.
When that person goes to sell their 1 trillion ounces of silver to a reputable businessman, will they or will they not be reported to the IRS for capital gains purposes, or any other purpose, if their silver is entirely ASE's?

Is the answer the same if their silver is entirely NON-ASE's?

Is there a known weight or value threshold where the answer changes?

I am seeing conflicting answers all over the web, however, considering the number of places I've consistently seen (this afternoon) that states the sale of ASE's are not reported to the IRS, irrespective of the number of ounces, I'm inclined to say I have my answer.... I was just hoping to learn from my peers here if someone is more informed with a better source than just some random sites on the internet like me.


Larger dealers will give you 1099B form upon transaction larger than $10k - but again this applies to any object/futures/stock you sold beyond this amount. Most dealers I deal with only deal in cash or simply don't care. It is your duty to report your 'profit,' not dealers'

PS I might be outdated on the number as I heard IRS is updating the requirement down to merely few hundred bucks.

[Sawin]

Current laws/regs/etc regarding reporting are a moot point. You know the Administration of the day will back-door new rules and regs BEFORE they publicly announce any confiscation, especially if it's the filthy s#!tbags in office right now.

haha, well that's undoubtedly a true statement.

[Sawin]

Larger dealers will give you 1099B form upon transaction larger than $10k - but again this applies to any object/futures/stock you sold beyond this amount. Most dealers I deal with only deal in cash or simply don't care. It is your duty to report your 'profit,' not dealers'

PS I might be outdated on the number as I heard IRS is updating the requirement down to merely few hundred bucks.

Thank you, Ken. This is precisely what I'm seeing online as well, so it's evidently a very gray and evolving area... I've heard $600, $10,000, 1000oz of silver, 25 oz of gold, and sundry other numbers... I'm just trying to find out which it is for real.

[sellersm]

Current laws/regs/etc regarding reporting are a moot point. You know the Administration of the day will back-door new rules and regs BEFORE they publicly announce any confiscation, especially if it's the filthy s#!tbags in office right now.

^This. Even if it's under a tax code somewhere, many of those are being revised right now due to O-care... What is it now? The O-care "law" is over 12 Million words now? And it's not finished yet.

[ChunkyMonkey]

Thank you, Ken. This is precisely what I'm seeing online as well, so it's evidently a very gray and evolving area... I've heard $600, $10,000, 1000oz of silver, 25 oz of gold, and sundry other numbers... I'm just trying to find out which it is for real.

There are alot of stories being told by crappy companies such as goldline, but these are sales pitch to sell 'collector' value. Keep in mind, US Congress removed president's authority to regulate gold and silver in 1977.

Proceed as you were to purchase any other valuable item. If it's in record, who says that the big brother will not come and confiscate it one day. If it's a huge profit, it is your responsible to report it as income. No difference from any other item such as guns (well at least prior to July 1).

[Sawin]

^This. Even if it's under a tax code somewhere, many of those are being revised right now due to O-care... What is it now? The O-care "law" is over 12 Million words now? And it's not finished yet.

Well there we have it gents. All this confusion and bickering is Obamacare's fault. Rightfully so.

[ChunkyMonkey]

Well there we have it gents. All this confusion and bickering is Obamacare's fault. Rightfully so.

Yeah, but if you read the fine print on page 28404 section 8, it says:

"All Bush's fault"

[sellersm]

A word from Richard Russell today: http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/11/26_Harsh_Changes_Are_Coming_For_Global_Markets_%26 _Mankind.html


A few thoughts about gold. Never buy gold for a profit, gold is a measure of wealth. Count your gold holdings in the number of ounces, not the current worth in dollars. You don’t price the home you live in every day, or with each passing week. Nor should you price your gold holdings in dollars with each passing day. Gold is a timeless wealth asset; an asset that will have a value with the passing of time.

Remember this: Of the original issues that made up the Industrial Average, only one remains. And that stock is General Electric. And what happened to all the rest? In investing, nothing is permanent except gold. But remember, do not buy gold with the idea of making a profit. Buy gold because it is pure wealth, and may be the last man standing.

Late Notes -- With gold down 3 points today, the gold mining stocks were all down. This is tax loss selling. Keep your eye on the bullion price. The Dow continues to push up as expected, although warnings are coming out of the woodwork from every direction. Money managers are afraid to leave the festivities so they will stay with the market until the bitter end.

Remember that megaphone pattern in the Dow? We're now at the upper trendline. This could take the Dow as high as 17,000 to complete the pattern.

[Scogin]

Quick question for you guys. Those of you that buy monster boxes/ tubes of Eagles, where do you order them?

[ChunkyMonkey]

Quick question for you guys. Those of you that buy monster boxes/ tubes of Eagles, where do you order them?

Locally. Most local dealer can order it for you. More expensive than online, but if you are nice, no receipt or tax ;)

Or you can buy 20 tubes at the time to keep it under $10k threshold.

Call All American coin and jewelry on south broadway. One man shop.. Easy to deal with.

[mahabali]

Silver is $19.29 now.

[screagle2]

Quick question for you guys. Those of you that buy monster boxes/ tubes of Eagles, where do you order them?

Apmex, Provident, Texas Precious Metals,

Tulving is good, but he is an individual, and he may answer, or may not, no matter the time of day or night.

The previous 3 are 24 hr. ordering and I wire funds the next day. All 3 have been very good

[roberth]

I prefer to buy locally. I like to build business relationships with people and that is difficult to do online.

L&L Coins on 44th near Harlan. Dave's on Broadway just south of Rocky Mountain Coin. The "Silver Guy" at the Tanner show this weekend, there are 2 other good vendors if Chad doesn't have what you want.

[RonMexico]

Looking at buying some silver coins. Purchased some today but I just want to know what you all would pay if you we in the market for walking liberties. I will say I got a lot more bang for my buck than I did when I first purchased silver in the fall of 2012.

[<MADDOG>]

I use http://www.jmbullion.com/, but I may be ignorant. I appreciate the free shipping, and it comes to my PO box without a sig needed. (Disclosure: I don't buy large quantities, just once a month)

I walked into a local numismatic shop here a month ago, and I walked right back out. Too large of a crowd, and I'm impatient....

[cableguy11]

Same here, once a month, lately been using eBay...and APMEX...They have had some pretty good prices when they have a deal and free shipping.

[ChunkyMonkey]

I buy mine from a store off Broadway and Littleton blvd. Text me if you need more info Ron. Buy a roll (20) a month for his best price.

[Dave]

Any local sources for silver maple leafs? I have a decent amount in eagles, and bars of varying weights can be gotten most places, but trying to find some more maples that aren't hit with too high of a dealer premium.