roberth, you pretty much hit the nail on the head. I'd simply say it's the undecided/independents who actually pushes a candidate over the top, though, rather than decides who gets elected. Semantics, probably.

But you gotta figure Hickenlooper is going to get 40-45 percent of the vote without even working for it. That's a pretty formidable obstacle for any other candidate to overcome. It doesn't take much of a split on the other side to ensure a Hickenlooper victory.