GOP a "minor party" if Maes doesn't get 10%

[Zundfolge]

I have this nagging feeling that if Tancredo was to win, he would switch his party affiliation within a year back to republican in order to assist the 2012 elections. Its something he could do, not unlike others at the state and federal level who have done so here in Colorado, the biggest being Ben Nighthorse Campbell.

Just my belief as I don't think his personal positions match that of the constitution party and they were just a (knowing) vehicle to get done what he wanted to do.

I believe he's all but said that was what he'd do and he has been clear that he's a Republican just using the Constitution Party (and they seem fine with that too).

[LippCJ7]

Todays Rasmussen Poll: http://www.rasmussenreports.com/publ...orado_governor

Hick: 43%
Tancredo: 35%
Maes: 16%

Tancredo makes 20 points in 4 weeks, he is 8 points down from Hick and yet were still crying that Tancredo did this or Tancredo did that, lets face it fellas he's the candidate for the right, its time to suck it up and vote for him, he didn't do anything to Mcinnis or Maes they did it to themselves and Maes is clearly not going to drop out, he still has 16% of the vote which would make Tancredo the clear winner, stop the BS and lets put Tancredo in office we could do a lot worse.

Also as reported today on KHOW: http://www.khow.com/pages/caplisandsilverman.html

the Dems are playing hardball, in the republican primary, attacking Mcinnis while leaving Maes alone. Sounds to me as though the Dems are pulling out all the stops for the governor race which shouldn't be a surprise since it looks like their candidates are either completely safe or in serious trouble and if we can get our crap together we can put the governors race in the bag, and thats the biggest prize in November, other wise we can continue to piss in each others wheaties and cry some more. This is a simple decision guys, Tancredo probably did it the wrong way but in the end he was right, and in the end he can win.

[Zundfolge]

Through all this mess I've grown to detest Tancredo ... he's still better than Hickenlooper (but I've scraped stuff off the bottom of my shoe that would be better than Hick).

Looks like I'll be holding my nose to vote for him (Tancredo that is).

[OgenRwot]

I don't know where this turned into an "Ogen hates Tancredo" argument. That's not what it's about. What I said from the beginning is that Tom is not going to win. Maes is not going to win. But if Maes doesn't get 10% then conservatives running for state level offices on down will be severely handcuffed financially. If you don't think money wins elections you're wrong. My point is that it's probably not a bad idea to vote for Maes so that the GOP doesn't forfeit the next two elections by default to the Democrats.

Believe me, I don't like Maes and as Zundfolge said, I can't stand Tancredo now either. I'm not complaining that McInnis isn't in the race. He's not so let's move along.

[OgenRwot]

Todays Rasmussen Poll: http://www.rasmussenreports.com/publ...orado_governor

Hick: 43%
Tancredo: 35%
Maes: 16%

Tancredo makes 20 points in 4 weeks, he is 8 points down from Hick and yet were still crying that Tancredo did this or Tancredo did that, lets face it fellas he's the candidate for the right, its time to suck it up and vote for him, he didn't do anything to Mcinnis or Maes they did it to themselves and Maes is clearly not going to drop out, he still has 16% of the vote which would make Tancredo the clear winner, stop the BS and lets put Tancredo in office we could do a lot worse.

Also as reported today on KHOW: http://www.khow.com/pages/caplisandsilverman.html

the Dems are playing hardball, in the republican primary, attacking Mcinnis while leaving Maes alone. Sounds to me as though the Dems are pulling out all the stops for the governor race which shouldn't be a surprise since it looks like their candidates are either completely safe or in serious trouble and if we can get our crap together we can put the governors race in the bag, and thats the biggest prize in November, other wise we can continue to piss in each others wheaties and cry some more. This is a simple decision guys, Tancredo probably did it the wrong way but in the end he was right, and in the end he can win.

Hickenlooper has not dropped below 42% since he entered the race. The only candidate that was ever beating him was McInnis when it was 46-41 in mid June. Tancredo's "surge" in the polls is not at Hickenloopers expense, Tanc rises and Maes drops. People see the SS Maes sinking rather quickly and they are jumping ship over to the Tancredo ticket. Tanc didn't make up 20 points on Hick, he made up 20 points on Maes.

When Tanc jumped in it was Hick 43% Maes 27% and Tanc 24% that was August 2nd.

On August 13th it was
H 43
M 31
T 18

September 14th
H 46
M 21
T 25

Oct 5th
H 43
M 16
T 35

Hickenlooper isn't going anywhere, he's polling consistently since he announced he was running. He hasn't hit the magic 50% threshold yet but he wont have to this year.

[Zundfolge]

Tanc didn't make up 20 points on Hick, he made up 20 points on Maes.

When Tanc jumped in it was Hick 43% Maes 27% and Tanc 24% that was August 2nd.

Oct 5th
H 43
M 16
T 35

This is what causes me such consternation.

If Tancredo can gain just 9 more points he wins and Colorado is sort of saved. If he takes all those points from Maes it may mean Tancredo will be Colorado's last Republican governor for a LONG time (however if Hickenlooper wins I predict Owens as Colorado's last Republican governor for a LONG time...of course some would argue that would make Vanderhoof the last Republican governor for a long time ).

Ideally the election will come down something like:
H 43
M 10
T 44

But yeah, that's some Pollyanna shit right there

[OgenRwot]

Even if Maes were to drop at this point you have enough hard line Maes supporters that just wont vote or will write in Maes. I think that's going to happen anyway, many GOPers just wont vote. I also know a lot of conservatives that are planning on voting for Hick because they are afraid Maes is simply retarded and that will hurt the future GOP and they are afraid that Tanc is way too far right and that will also hurt the future GOP. We're going to see an undervote just like what happened in the primary. Don't be surprised to see 40-50,000 less people vote for governor than they did for Senate.

ETA:
Hick wouldn't be the worst thing that happened to this state. Ritter is way to the left of Hick. Hick is a businessman and the Colorado Chamber of Commerce is saying his short list for advisers is also very business friendly. He's not above lowering taxes either. I'm not going to vote for him but I'm not terrified of a Governor Hickenlooper either.

[OgenRwot]

A little bit more on the situation from the Denver Post this morning:
http://www.denverpost.com/election2010/ci_16254377

[LippCJ7]

I don't know where this turned into an "Ogen hates Tancredo" argument. That's not what it's about. What I said from the beginning is that Tom is not going to win. Maes is not going to win. But if Maes doesn't get 10% then conservatives running for state level offices on down will be severely handcuffed financially. If you don't think money wins elections you're wrong. My point is that it's probably not a bad idea to vote for Maes so that the GOP doesn't forfeit the next two elections by default to the Democrats.

Believe me, I don't like Maes and as Zundfolge said, I can't stand Tancredo now either. I'm not complaining that McInnis isn't in the race. He's not so let's move along.

OgenRwot, if my post came off to you that I was blasting you I apologize as that wasn't my intentions at all.

As for the possibility that the GOP could become a minor party, they dug the hole themselves. I was for Tancredo when he decided to pull out, then Penry dropped out now I am backing Mcinnis and not happy about it, when Tancredo started demanding Mcinnis and Maes withdraw I agreed with him and when he went outside the party to enter the race again I was very happy but also knew that this could be the end of the GOP for a long time. I hope thats not the case, I hope the GOP leadership realizes that we are in charge not them and that alot of us are sick and tired of their arrogance. I want to choose who runs for office, not be given a choice of candidates dictated by the leadership, this is further backed by the fact that neither candidate the GOP gave us was vetted or checked out they simply said here are your candidates.........vote. Welcome to a pissed of bunch of voters.

At any rate, Tancredo is extreme I don't bother defending that, he is brash and I understand alot of people think he is self centered and has a huge ego, well I have talked to him a couple times and as far as him being self centered and has a huge ego? I say BS he was great to talk to, I enjoyed it very much, being extreme and brash? well so am I.

[sroz]

Why all this concern over the Republican, Democrat or American Constiitution parties. I hope they all go belly up. Political parties lead to corruption and we definitely have an over-abundance of that!! Why do you think so many of our founding fathers were against organized parties??? It irks me to hear all these folks concerned about the future of their parties when they should be concerned about the future of this state and this country; which by the way the parties are not.
It's real simple, guys:

The Hick and everything he stands for,
Maes and his fairy tales, or
Tancredo.

Our actions have consequences. Maes doesn't have a chance and as long as the votes are split between he and Tancredo, Hick is our man.